Sunday 9th November 2014

One selection for Sunday.

2.25 Navan Special Tiara 5pts win @ 8/1 / 7/1 (Generally guaranteed)

A run on the flat, one over hurdles, and a recent chase run haven't seen Special Tiara rediscover his best form, but he has had plausible excuses for all three runs and I think this Grade 2 is well within his compass should he be able to put it all together today. It seems Andrew Lynch has chosen to ride Days Hotel, but I wouldn't read too much into that and although I'm not a big fan of Brian Hayes, a change in jockey can sometimes help a horse and the selection might just benefit from a different pair of hands today. At his best, this is a Grade 1 two miler, but he seems to have been difficult to train. De Bromhead's stable are in fine form, though, and he is a trainer I greatly respect in terms of his ability to get difficult horses right. Special Tiara scoped badly after his last race, but he jumped really well before that and there was definite promise to be taken from the run. A reproduction of his Sandown form behind Sire De Grugy would see him go close here and there's no reason why he shouldn't improve for his last run in terms of fitness. Running two in the one race is unusual for this trainer, and I find it interesting he has chosen to declare both Days Hotel and the selection. Anything 7/1+ is fair.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -5.00 / year: +202.75

Saturday 8th November 2014

Two races of interest for us today.

3.15 Wincanton

Bertimont 3pts win @ 8/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Fox Norton 3pts win @ 14/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Irving could be the class act here, but it has paid in recent weeks to take on Paul Nicholls' horses first time out and perhaps we can get him beaten today. Bertimont hurdled very impressively when winning at Chepstow last time out, and although he was handed a ridiculously easy lead the manner of his victory was impressive. The runner up has run well since, and it might just be that the handicapper has been lenient in his treatment of a progressive horse. The other horse who makes appeal is Fox Norton. His trainer says he's likely to come on for the run, but the same was said of last year's winner Melodic Rendezvous and it didn't stop him winning impressively. Fox Norton is a very classy horse, one of last year's best juveniles and a horse who can go very well fresh. He hasn't been easy to train, but he could be a stone better than his current handicap mark in my estimation and he is a danger to all here. Conditions will suit him and he is too big at double figure prices.

3.25 Kelso Native Spa 5pts win @ 10/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Michael Smith's horses have largely been out of form, but he had a horse run much better the other day at Wetherby and his Native Spa looks well handicapped on a piece of form at Newcastle last season, if he is able to reproduce something in that ballpark on his seasonal reappearance. Smith generally has his horses fit first time up, and he does do well at Kelso: he boasts a 21% strike rate over the course of the last five seasons, returning a level stakes profit of +43.13 to the unit stake. Native Spa looked like he still had growing to do last season, and it might just be he improves for the summer on his back. Brian Hughes takes the ride and anything around 9/1+ looks good value. This is a winnable race - most of his rivals haven't achieved much - and anything that shows a modicum of improvement will be in with a chance of winning it.

Profit & loss: day: -11.00 / month: -11.00 / year: +207.75

Friday 7th November 2014

Just one bet for this evening.

5.10 Wolverhampton Speightstown's Kid 5pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, Bet Victor, Stan James, Betpack.com, independents, guaranteed)

Speightstown's Kid is an in and out performer, who can follow up an abysmal run with a win that can make him look like an improving performer. He had no chance of winning the claimer he was entered in last time, but he may have needed the run after a break anyway and it is probably no surprise he didn't show up much. He has been entered in a winnable handicap here, and the booking of a very promising claiming rider who is a steal for his 3lbs  really takes the eye. This should be run to suit, with some pace up front likely to come from Little Elie, and if the selection can travel and pounce then double figure prices could look silly after the race. He is as likely to finish last as he is first, he's that type of horse but he does represent value here. Take anything 9/1 or better.

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Afternoon bets:

One for this afternoon, and evening bets to follow, released before 4.30pm.

3.00 Musselburgh Buy Back Bob 3pts each-way @ 5/1 (Skybet, Bet Victor, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook) - E/W 3rd @ 6/1

Buy Back Bob is quite consistent  when he is right, and from seven hurdles runs he has hit the frame five times, with two soft ground flops the aberrations on that profile. He travels well, but has failed to find as much as seemed likely on a couple of occasions in the past. However his recent Southwell run was decent and with his yard in good form, he makes appeal here on good ground over a relatively easy two mile trip. He looks well handicapped off OR117 too, having run to a mark 4lbs above that on his last two starts. He cost only £6,000 bought out of Tony Martin's yard, but the recent run suggests it could be money well spent and the likely decent pace of today's race should suit him. This is the type of horse I like to back each-way: he is well handicapped, has good recent form, and tends more often than not to give his running, although he needs everything to drop right to win. 3pts each-way pays just less than 4pts win and it looks the smart way to stake the selection.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +0.00 / year: +218.75

Wednesday 5th November 2014

One race of interest this afternoon. Possible evening bets will follow, details either way before 5.00pm.

3.15 Chepstow 

Eastern Witness 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

Theregoesthetruth 3pts win @ 14/1 / 12/1 (Generally guaranteed)

This is an interesting low grade handicap hurdle, which will be run on heavy ground. Venetia Williams is the master trainer when it comes to horses running in these conditions, and her Eastern Witness looks to be worth chancing at a double figure price here. The selection is bred to go on this kind of ground, and won an Irish point to point on soft, but he achieved very little in maiden hurdles last year. His trainer done a decent job of getting him handicapped on a workable mark of OR99, and it is interesting she perseveres. The drop back in trip is interesting: he showed promise on his final start at Huntingdon at around this distance, before being put away. Whether there were breathing or other issues, he was never really right and connections done the right thing in putting him away in early March. It may be that he simply doesn't have much ability, but his trainer isn't knowing for keeping bad horses and this looks a good piece of placement. Aidan Coleman takes the right.

Theregoesthetruth represents a stable who are in very good form, with a number of horses outrunning market expectation in the last few days. The selection saw the track as a four year old in Ireland, but was off the track until her reappearance at Ffos Las last month. She ran well and hurdled proficiently, but her jockey noticeably took a pull on her around three out, and she was ridden very tenderly thereafter - in fact, she made her only jumping mistake of the race after being eased to a slower pace. She most likely did get tired late on, and the time of the race wasn't impressive, but it was a nice reintroduction against horses better than what she faces today. She is by Flemensfirth, whose progeny's actual versus expected ratio on soft and heavy ground is strong, and she should handle conditions today. A good 3lb claimer takes the ride and she is also worth betting on her handicap debut.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: +4.00 / year: +222.75

Tuesday 4th November 2014

One bet for this afternoon, possible evening bets to follow before 5.00pm.

2.15 Exeter God's Own 5pts win @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed) - WON @ 8/1

God's Own has been cleverly campaigned by Tom George, in that he retains his Novice status for this season having won the Grade 1 Novice chase at Punchestown on May 1st. He looks well handicapped here with Balder Succes, receiving 7lb from a rival whom he beat off levels on his last start. There seemed to be no fluke about that result, although he got a great ride from Barry Geraghty and raced on the best of the ground all the way around. The extra 1 1/2 furlongs today should be in his favour: he sees out two miles well. The selection also seems better racing clockwise, as I pointed out when advising him in May. He has run well on both his seasonal reappearances (hampered and unseated when going well on last year's seasonal debut) and his trainer is in form. Indeed, his trainer was responsible for the runner up in this race last year Module, who was only beaten a head by Somersby. I'm not a fan of Hinterland with Paul Nicholls' horses tending to need a run, and the selection looks better weighted than Balder Succes. Cue Card will most likely need this after injury, and the danger will perhaps be Somersby. I think connections will have targeted this race for God's Own and he looks too big at 13/2+.

Profit & loss: day: +40.00 / month: +10.00 / year: +228.75

Monday 3rd November 2014

Just one selection for Monday.

2.15 Wolverhampton Pearl Noir 5pts win @ 11/2 (Generally guaranteed)

Pearl Noir ran better than his finishing position suggests last time out in a six furlong class 5 event at Lingfield. The selection was in front coming into the final bend, but blew the turn completely in what looked a lapse of concentration to this observer. He hasn't won over six furlongs yet, but two wins since July and a couple of decent performances in between suggest to me that he is an improving sprinter at the age of four. He rallied well at Lingfield and wasn't beaten far into fifth, but can still race in class 6 events of this mark of OR59. The 5lb claimer who rode him that day is replaced today by Luke Morris, who knows the horse well. I would expect him to sit on the lead and stack them up in behind, or perhaps forfeit the lead and sit handy, to conserve stamina over this distance. He has enough speed and is in good enough form to beat a poor bunch of sprinters here, who are largely out of form or just gearing up for winter campaigns. The 11/2 generally available looks fair for this class dropper.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: -30.00 / year: +188.75

Saturday 1st November 2014

Two bets for us at Santa Anita this evening.

9.43 Santa Anita - Breeder's Cup Juvenile

Selection: The Great War 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (Generally guaranteed, get 1/4 odds paid)

Aidan O'Brien won this race having stepped up Johannesburg from six furlongs, and he can repeat the feat with dirt-bred The Great War this evening. The selection is by War Front, whose progeny go very well on dirt, and his form in Ireland is really strong. His last time out win was achieved without too much fuss and was probably just a preparation for this. He is drawn in stall 4 which gives him a good chance of getting a good trip, and Ryan Moore is the right man to have on top. I thought he was too big in double figure prices and with 1/4 odds paid by most bookmakers, he appeals as an each-way selection.

12.35AM Santa Anita - Breeders Cup Classic 

Selection: Tonalist 5pts win @ 6/1 (Boylesports, SeanieMac.com, Coral, William Hill, guaranteed)

Tonalist was ultra impressive last time out, when defeating Zivo in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. As a Belmont Stakes winner, he has proven stamina, and my feeling is that this will be run at a manic pace and will bring in the closers. Bayern and Moreno in particular are almost certain to go hard, and looking at the draw I can see an overload of the lesser fancied horses trying to get an early position. This could turn into an absolute dogfight down the stretch, a la Drosselmeyer in 2011. Tonalist appeals as the type who can do his best work late, and with the right trip into the race he could be hard to hold off.

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Afternoon Bets:

Weybridge Light was hampered quite badly on the home turn last night, but he battled on gamely to land place money for us. Dark Days had no issues with hanging or ducking in and won it handsomely.

Today's racing is fantastic, and we have three afternoon interests.

Please note Breeder's Cup selections and analysis will be sent before 6.30pm.

1.45 Ascot Cocktails At Dawn 5pts win @ 7/2 (Skybet, 888 Sport, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet Bright, Racebets, BruceBetting.com)

This is a decent Novice's Handicap, but despite the fact that Cocktails At Dawn is making his debut over fences, I think he is good value at 7/2. He was the best of these over hurdles in my view, and it suggests he is thought to be a chaser given that he is switched to fences after just five hurdles starts. He oozed class at Kempton in April when he made light work of a fair field of hurdlers and probably just bounced six days later when turned over at Chepstow. This trip and right handed track should be perfect for him, and his trainer tends to have his novices ready for this meeting. Monkey Kingdom probably wants the ground softer, and Keltus hasn't looked a natural chaser thus far. Garrahalish would be my idea of the danger. He is a fine jumper, but I don't expect them to go a manic gallop here and Cocktails At Dawn can win this with his class and speed. The presence of Barry Geraghty in the saddle is obviously a massive plus.

2.20 Ascot Claret Cloak 5pts win @ 13/2 (Generally guaranteed)

I'm not sure Next Sensation wants to go right handed, and although he was a very good novice I'd be happy to take him on here. Bellenos tends to throw in the odd stinker, and I don't think Manyriverstocross is that well handicapped. Ulck Du Lin looks well treated, but Claret Cloak represents a stable in very good form and he won on his seasonal debut last year.It appears that there is some pace on with Next Sensation likely to lead, and that will suit Claret Cloak well. It is hard to argue that he is well handicapped with Next Sensation based on Cheltenham form, but I think he is more likely to be suited by race conditions and more likely to be tuned up. With Leighton Aspell in the saddle - he had a fine season last year and is riding better than ever - he appeals at 13/2 in what looks a tight handicap.

2.30 Down Royal Ma Filleule 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally guaranteed)

There is very little wrong with Ma Filleule's form from last season, and her Aintree win confirmed she is a very good chaser. It is interesting Nicky Henderson sends her over here for a race the English have traditionally farmed, and she looks well treated by the race conditions with a 7lb allowance. The booking of Daryl Jacob is intriguing. He gave Kauto Stone a fine ride in this race a couple of years ago, and Henderson has wisely made use of the fact that Paul Nicholls no longer requires him. We've already seen Sam Twiston-Davies usurped by his father's horses when riding Paul Nicholls' hotpots, and I expect this theme to punctuate this National Hunt season somewhat. Jacob could very well land a satisfying victory today. Most of these won't be fully tuned up, but I think the likely moderate pace over this distance, on ground which took some rain yesterday, will suit the mare better than anything else in the race and she can pay a compliment to Holywell by winning this valuable Grade 1.

Profit & loss: day: -25.00 / month: -25.00 / year: +193.75