An early mail today as our only interest is in the 1.50pm contest.
A nice 33/1 place yesterday, and I thought Holcote Rose looked particularly well - she is powerfully built and has a lovely, fluent action - a Kieren Fallon drive probably would have won the race for her but she wasn't overly pushed and despite the barrage of late support I think connections looked after her with a view to the longer term.
To be honest there isn't much to get excited about to day, but the fillies maiden at Newcastle does interest me. In light of recent winnings, I think it would be foolish not to have a small bet on two horses I feel are overpriced.
Shayla represents Alan Swinbank, who has already had a 40/1 maiden winner at this track this year. She shaped really well on her debut over six furlongs at Hamilton Park, missing the break by 5 lengths and putting in all her best work at the finish after being off the bridle most of the way. It is interesting Swinbank steps her up to a mile so quickly - it is not his usual style to step a horse up two furlongs in trip so soon - but I think it will suit her perfectly. She is fairly speedily bred, being out of Pastoral Pursuits, but I don't see any reason why a mile will stretch her based on her debut. She looks a strong, nicely built sort. Alan Swinbank's horses are often ignored in the market second time out but they do tend to improve markedly for their debut run. I think the 33/1 available with Bet 365 is a ridiculous price, 14/1 - 16/1 is more in line with my thinking.
Yankee Bright, representing James Given, is another whom the market seems to be underestimating. She ran a really nice race on her debut over a mile at Haydock, again doing all her best work at the finish, not hard pressed, behind Anaya, who reopposes today. Quite why Anaya is half her price, I do not know, because I would expect the selection to reverse the form with normal improvement from her debut.
Of the market principals, I prefer Woodcote Bell over Deirdre, but neither one looks bombproof and I feel that, as is sometimes the case, this maiden has been priced up on stable reputation rather than form on the track.
Best Recommendation:
1.50 Newcastle Shayla, 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Bet 365 - guaranteed)
1.50 Newcastle Yankee Bright, 1.5pts each-way @ 16/1 (Bet 365 - guaranteed) E/W 3rd
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Monday October 12th
Two races of interest at Kempton today.
Diamond Twister goes in the opener and looks a fair price to win for the first time since February. He has generally been in good form but has slipped to a mark of 64 after a disappointing run at Wolverhampton last time where he was given a fairly easy time of it by Robert Winston. The selection pulled his chance away over the extended nine furlongs in a messy race, and was allowed to come home in his own time once his chance had gone. That was a stronger contest than this, and the drop in class and trip could be just what Diamond Twister requires. The stable claimer takes off a useful 3lb into the bargain and he is well drawn for one who will like to sit prominent over this trip. John Best's mob have been in better for of late and if the selection is going to win again this year, it should be today.
The fillies maiden looks interesting also. The market looks a little lopsided in favour of the joint favourites, who represent Richard Fahey and William Haggas. I think the contest looks more open that the market suggests, and am happy to play a couple of bigger priced horses against what I feel are under priced rivals. Ed Vaughan had a winner here the other night, and his representative, the well bred Vert Chapeau, looks to hold better claims than her price suggests. She was well away on debut in a better contest than this (form has not worked out so far, but to early to write off most of them) and pulled too hard for her head in the early part of the contest to give her any chance of finishing of well. The drop to six furlongs looks ideal and she should be there or thereabouts at the finish granted normal improvement. Sylvester Kirk runs Hulcote Rose, a 95,000 daughter of Rock Of Gibraltar. She made a nice debut at Newbury, travelling well and showing a willingness to run between horses to better her position before fading in the closing stages. Whether she was green when she hit the front or simply tired, I can't tell. It is interesting, though, that she has not run since because this suggests she may have had a problem. If she is 100% today and shows the benefit of that debut she is also certainly overpriced.
Best Recommendations:
2.10 Kempton Diamond Twister 4pts win @ 11/2 (Stan James, Guaranteed) 2nd
4.00 Kempton Vert Chapeau 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
4.00 Kempton Hulcote Rose 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed) E/W 3rd
Diamond Twister goes in the opener and looks a fair price to win for the first time since February. He has generally been in good form but has slipped to a mark of 64 after a disappointing run at Wolverhampton last time where he was given a fairly easy time of it by Robert Winston. The selection pulled his chance away over the extended nine furlongs in a messy race, and was allowed to come home in his own time once his chance had gone. That was a stronger contest than this, and the drop in class and trip could be just what Diamond Twister requires. The stable claimer takes off a useful 3lb into the bargain and he is well drawn for one who will like to sit prominent over this trip. John Best's mob have been in better for of late and if the selection is going to win again this year, it should be today.
The fillies maiden looks interesting also. The market looks a little lopsided in favour of the joint favourites, who represent Richard Fahey and William Haggas. I think the contest looks more open that the market suggests, and am happy to play a couple of bigger priced horses against what I feel are under priced rivals. Ed Vaughan had a winner here the other night, and his representative, the well bred Vert Chapeau, looks to hold better claims than her price suggests. She was well away on debut in a better contest than this (form has not worked out so far, but to early to write off most of them) and pulled too hard for her head in the early part of the contest to give her any chance of finishing of well. The drop to six furlongs looks ideal and she should be there or thereabouts at the finish granted normal improvement. Sylvester Kirk runs Hulcote Rose, a 95,000 daughter of Rock Of Gibraltar. She made a nice debut at Newbury, travelling well and showing a willingness to run between horses to better her position before fading in the closing stages. Whether she was green when she hit the front or simply tired, I can't tell. It is interesting, though, that she has not run since because this suggests she may have had a problem. If she is 100% today and shows the benefit of that debut she is also certainly overpriced.
Best Recommendations:
2.10 Kempton Diamond Twister 4pts win @ 11/2 (Stan James, Guaranteed) 2nd
4.00 Kempton Vert Chapeau 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
4.00 Kempton Hulcote Rose 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed) E/W 3rd
Sunday October 11th
Monster profits again yesterday with a sweet 12/1 winner at Wolverhampton. We've been in great form and the crucial thing is our maximum bets are hitting the board and we're getting the staking spot on as usual.
One bet for today, and it's a bet I've thought long and hard about!
I'm sure a few of you are not familiar with the N.F.L., but American Football is one of my sports of choice and I generally price up the matches on a weekly basis as well as the points spread. Last Monday, I priced up the Tampa Bay @ Washington points spread (basically handicap betting) as Tampa Bay +9.5. I was shocked to find out that Paddy Powers and Bet 365 among others are giving Tampa a +15.5 points start on the handicap. I thought long and hard about recommending a maximum bet, but to be honest it is not our style to go maximum on an even money shot. When you look at our recent max bets, you'll see what I mean. Rowan Tiger last week was a blatant rick in my opinion, and it was 9/1. Here we have the same, but the price is just under evens on Betfair. So what I'll say is, the bet is recommended with maximum confidence but I'll suggest seven points only as the stake.
Best Recommendation:
American Football - N.F.L. - Tampa Bay (+15.5) @ Philadelphia, 7pts @ 1.99 (Betfair - 10/11 with Bet 365, Paddy Power)
One bet for today, and it's a bet I've thought long and hard about!
I'm sure a few of you are not familiar with the N.F.L., but American Football is one of my sports of choice and I generally price up the matches on a weekly basis as well as the points spread. Last Monday, I priced up the Tampa Bay @ Washington points spread (basically handicap betting) as Tampa Bay +9.5. I was shocked to find out that Paddy Powers and Bet 365 among others are giving Tampa a +15.5 points start on the handicap. I thought long and hard about recommending a maximum bet, but to be honest it is not our style to go maximum on an even money shot. When you look at our recent max bets, you'll see what I mean. Rowan Tiger last week was a blatant rick in my opinion, and it was 9/1. Here we have the same, but the price is just under evens on Betfair. So what I'll say is, the bet is recommended with maximum confidence but I'll suggest seven points only as the stake.
Best Recommendation:
American Football - N.F.L. - Tampa Bay (+15.5) @ Philadelphia, 7pts @ 1.99 (Betfair - 10/11 with Bet 365, Paddy Power)
Saturday October 10th - Evening
Murcar finished fourth today, staying on one paced, and I reckon he failed to give his Haydock running.
One interesting dark horse for this evening.
George Prodromou has had a quiet time of things lately, but a couple of his runners have showed signs lately that they are running a bit better than market expectations and the stable had a hefty gamble foiled by a narrow margin (and probably only due to the lack of a clear run) at Kempton the other night. Prodromou sends Michael Jarvis cast-off Naheel to Wolverhampton tonight for a similarly poor contest. Saleem Golam (who rode Sonhador at Kempton) takes the ride and it's heartening that the young jock had a nice winner in the shape of Dayia at Wolves last night.
Naheel put up a fairly likeable performance last time up against 30/100f Godolphin hotpot Game Stalker, who is probably pattern class at least, going down by only a couple of lengths in the end. It was noticeable that he travelled much better than the 60-rated Silk and Satin, and left the Cecil horse and other flotsam and jetsam ten lengths behind. Silk and Satin is fairly useless in my book (so far at least), but it's still a 60 rated rival and I think there is a chance Naheel might have run a better race at Folkstone than the ratings suggest. He has some passable all weather form in the book from his time with Jarvis suggesting he handles the surface, and if Prodromou has succeeded in sweetening him up (has done well with cast-offs in the past) as the last run suggests, a mark of 65 may not be beyond him. He also receives a useful 3yo allowance, and the opposition don't look great. He is drawn well for a prominent pace stalker, indeed I think the likely moderate pace of the race will suit his style too.
Best Recommendation:
6.15 Wolverhampton Naheel 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Skybet, Sporting Odds) Won
One interesting dark horse for this evening.
George Prodromou has had a quiet time of things lately, but a couple of his runners have showed signs lately that they are running a bit better than market expectations and the stable had a hefty gamble foiled by a narrow margin (and probably only due to the lack of a clear run) at Kempton the other night. Prodromou sends Michael Jarvis cast-off Naheel to Wolverhampton tonight for a similarly poor contest. Saleem Golam (who rode Sonhador at Kempton) takes the ride and it's heartening that the young jock had a nice winner in the shape of Dayia at Wolves last night.
Naheel put up a fairly likeable performance last time up against 30/100f Godolphin hotpot Game Stalker, who is probably pattern class at least, going down by only a couple of lengths in the end. It was noticeable that he travelled much better than the 60-rated Silk and Satin, and left the Cecil horse and other flotsam and jetsam ten lengths behind. Silk and Satin is fairly useless in my book (so far at least), but it's still a 60 rated rival and I think there is a chance Naheel might have run a better race at Folkstone than the ratings suggest. He has some passable all weather form in the book from his time with Jarvis suggesting he handles the surface, and if Prodromou has succeeded in sweetening him up (has done well with cast-offs in the past) as the last run suggests, a mark of 65 may not be beyond him. He also receives a useful 3yo allowance, and the opposition don't look great. He is drawn well for a prominent pace stalker, indeed I think the likely moderate pace of the race will suit his style too.
Best Recommendation:
6.15 Wolverhampton Naheel 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Skybet, Sporting Odds) Won
Saturday October 10th
One bet this afternoon, but it looks likely that we'll have another at Wolverhampton this evening, released at 5.30pm.
Just a note that I had looked at Iver Bridge Lad and Sole Power in Ascot's 2.15 as possible bets, as well as Appalachian Trail in the first at York. I couldn't discourage anyone having a small bet (Iver Bridge Lad is 33/1 on the machine) but being honest I think the former is a little too speculative and the market seems to have the other pair about right.
At York, the slowly progressive Murcar represents good value in the staying handicap at 2.40. He doesn't look the most straightforward but he seems to be an out and out stayer in the making and has hinted recently that he is better than his current rating of 73. He was doing all his best work at the finish at Haydock last time out and it looked to me that, despite wearing blinkers, he may have been spooked by the whip flailed by Lochiel's rider in the closing stages which seemed to make him think about it for a stride or two. He stayed on again towards the finish and looks set to appreciate the further step up in trip today. Lochiel has since gone in again at Newmarket off a mark of 87 so the form of that race is working out well from limited evidence. Ian Mongan takes the ride again and he seems to be striking up a good understanding with the horse. The one negative is that he has been on the go for a while now, but Clive's horses are still running well and unless he has gone for the year a good run looks to be on the cards. I make Murcar an 11/2 shot so I'm happy to take the 8/1 each-way.
Best Recommendation:
2.40 York Murcar, 3pts each-way @ 8/1 (Generally - get guaranteed)
Just a note that I had looked at Iver Bridge Lad and Sole Power in Ascot's 2.15 as possible bets, as well as Appalachian Trail in the first at York. I couldn't discourage anyone having a small bet (Iver Bridge Lad is 33/1 on the machine) but being honest I think the former is a little too speculative and the market seems to have the other pair about right.
At York, the slowly progressive Murcar represents good value in the staying handicap at 2.40. He doesn't look the most straightforward but he seems to be an out and out stayer in the making and has hinted recently that he is better than his current rating of 73. He was doing all his best work at the finish at Haydock last time out and it looked to me that, despite wearing blinkers, he may have been spooked by the whip flailed by Lochiel's rider in the closing stages which seemed to make him think about it for a stride or two. He stayed on again towards the finish and looks set to appreciate the further step up in trip today. Lochiel has since gone in again at Newmarket off a mark of 87 so the form of that race is working out well from limited evidence. Ian Mongan takes the ride again and he seems to be striking up a good understanding with the horse. The one negative is that he has been on the go for a while now, but Clive's horses are still running well and unless he has gone for the year a good run looks to be on the cards. I make Murcar an 11/2 shot so I'm happy to take the 8/1 each-way.
Best Recommendation:
2.40 York Murcar, 3pts each-way @ 8/1 (Generally - get guaranteed)
Wednesday October 7th
An easy winner with Jackday yesterday and 4/1 looked huge in the end. One for this afternoon and a bet tonight.
In the 4.20 at Exeter, Mumbles Pier looks the one to be on. We think he won with a bit more in hand that visually apparent last time out and in a fairly weak race we reckon he could take the beating under Tony McCoy. He will be sent on from the front and I think McCoy will prove to be the difference in a close finish. He should be able to set a steady tempo, save a bit up his sleeve for the home straight, and hold on all out. You'd be surprised the difference a top jockey makes in these types of races.
Yvonne Evelyn has run well at Kempton track before and has showed signs on her last two runs that she may be up to breaking her maiden soon. She duelled for the lead with a horse who I reckon is pattern class last time out, fading on unsuitable ground before staying on again close home, and the time before she was only just denied in a similar contest to tonights at Lingfield. 1m 4f is her ideal distance and she is well drawn for a horse who likes to race prominently. She has it to do to beat the favourite but looks easily the most unexposed of the rest in my book and she represents decent each-way value at 18/1.
Best Recommendation:
In the 4.20 at Exeter, Mumbles Pier looks the one to be on. We think he won with a bit more in hand that visually apparent last time out and in a fairly weak race we reckon he could take the beating under Tony McCoy. He will be sent on from the front and I think McCoy will prove to be the difference in a close finish. He should be able to set a steady tempo, save a bit up his sleeve for the home straight, and hold on all out. You'd be surprised the difference a top jockey makes in these types of races.
Yvonne Evelyn has run well at Kempton track before and has showed signs on her last two runs that she may be up to breaking her maiden soon. She duelled for the lead with a horse who I reckon is pattern class last time out, fading on unsuitable ground before staying on again close home, and the time before she was only just denied in a similar contest to tonights at Lingfield. 1m 4f is her ideal distance and she is well drawn for a horse who likes to race prominently. She has it to do to beat the favourite but looks easily the most unexposed of the rest in my book and she represents decent each-way value at 18/1.
Best Recommendation:
4.20 Exeter Mumbles Pier, 4pts win @ 5.0 (Betfair)
7.20 Kempton Yvonne Evelyn 2pts each-way @ 18/1 (Generally)Tuesday October 6th
Two confident selections to kick off the week for us having had no bets Monday. Take the early prices.
Hernando's Boy shaped as though he would come on for the run when beaten just over seven lengths behind Simple Jim over 1m 6f here last time out. He is an out and out stayer and should appreciate the return to two miles. A dual course winner, he has been dropped five pounds by the handicapper after the last run, and Tom Eaves takes over from a clamier in the saddle. The selection represents good value at 8/1 and looks sure to go close.
Jackday has been consistent all year and contests a weaker race than he has generally run in this season in division II of the stayers handicap at 5.00. He has struggled to get his head in front, often finding less than looks likely at the business end of the race, but I reckon he has a class edge on this lot and the decent Barry McHugh takes 5lb off his back. 4/1 looks fair value.
Best Recommendation:
4.30 Catterick Hernando's Boy 3pts win @ 8/1 (William Hill, Guaranteed)
5.00 Catterick Jackday 4pts win @ 4/1 (William Hill, Guaranteed) Won
1pt each-way double @ 8/1, 4/1 (William Hill)
Hernando's Boy shaped as though he would come on for the run when beaten just over seven lengths behind Simple Jim over 1m 6f here last time out. He is an out and out stayer and should appreciate the return to two miles. A dual course winner, he has been dropped five pounds by the handicapper after the last run, and Tom Eaves takes over from a clamier in the saddle. The selection represents good value at 8/1 and looks sure to go close.
Jackday has been consistent all year and contests a weaker race than he has generally run in this season in division II of the stayers handicap at 5.00. He has struggled to get his head in front, often finding less than looks likely at the business end of the race, but I reckon he has a class edge on this lot and the decent Barry McHugh takes 5lb off his back. 4/1 looks fair value.
Best Recommendation:
4.30 Catterick Hernando's Boy 3pts win @ 8/1 (William Hill, Guaranteed)
5.00 Catterick Jackday 4pts win @ 4/1 (William Hill, Guaranteed) Won
1pt each-way double @ 8/1, 4/1 (William Hill)
October 3rd
Two bets today.
In the Cambridgeshire. Charm School represents a stable who clearly target this race and he seems to have ticks in all the right boxes. He ran a really good trial in the John Smiths handicap last time out and was not knocked about even though suffering a troubled passage. Gosden's mob haven't been in the best of form but in this candidate we have a horse with the absolute perfect profile for the race and we feel he should be 10/1. 16/1 is too big with Sporting Bet and we'll play each way.
In the 4.20 at Epsom, Mutawareth is given another chance to put his best foot forward. He was a bit keen at Kempton last time out and went out like a light. The small field and a possible easy lead could suit here and 8/1 is too big for a horse with bundles of talent, even though he has yet to show his very best on the track.
Best Recommendation:
3.40 Newmarket Charm School, 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Sporting Bet)
4.20 Epsom Mutawareth 2pts win @ 8/1 (Stan James - price guaranteed)
In the Cambridgeshire. Charm School represents a stable who clearly target this race and he seems to have ticks in all the right boxes. He ran a really good trial in the John Smiths handicap last time out and was not knocked about even though suffering a troubled passage. Gosden's mob haven't been in the best of form but in this candidate we have a horse with the absolute perfect profile for the race and we feel he should be 10/1. 16/1 is too big with Sporting Bet and we'll play each way.
In the 4.20 at Epsom, Mutawareth is given another chance to put his best foot forward. He was a bit keen at Kempton last time out and went out like a light. The small field and a possible easy lead could suit here and 8/1 is too big for a horse with bundles of talent, even though he has yet to show his very best on the track.
Best Recommendation:
3.40 Newmarket Charm School, 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Sporting Bet)
4.20 Epsom Mutawareth 2pts win @ 8/1 (Stan James - price guaranteed)
Friday, October 9, 2009
Thursday October 1st
Well I hope you all got on the 9/1 maximum bet winner last night. The price was pretty unbelievable and the 50pts+ profit comes in well handy after our recent break and a trappy few days racing.
One bet tonight.
In the staying handicap (6.45), The Quiet Genius looks the most progressive horse in the field and at the prices looks the value pick. The selection ran a very decent race last time which represented a marked improvement in form. The race has worked out really well with one winner and a second from the horses who finished behind the selection. The main issue here is the unproven stamina of the selection, but he certainly wasn't stopping at Newcastle and the manner in which he rallied suggests two miles should be within his compass. Trainer Jedd O'Keefe employs the services of a lightweight jockey who is in good form in the shape of Franny Norton - the selection gets a significant weight for age penalty and only carries 8-1 - and at 12/1 he looks excellent value and should be backed each-way.
Best Recommendation:
6.45 Wolves The Quiet Genius 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Generally, Get Guaranteed)
One bet tonight.
In the staying handicap (6.45), The Quiet Genius looks the most progressive horse in the field and at the prices looks the value pick. The selection ran a very decent race last time which represented a marked improvement in form. The race has worked out really well with one winner and a second from the horses who finished behind the selection. The main issue here is the unproven stamina of the selection, but he certainly wasn't stopping at Newcastle and the manner in which he rallied suggests two miles should be within his compass. Trainer Jedd O'Keefe employs the services of a lightweight jockey who is in good form in the shape of Franny Norton - the selection gets a significant weight for age penalty and only carries 8-1 - and at 12/1 he looks excellent value and should be backed each-way.
Best Recommendation:
6.45 Wolves The Quiet Genius 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Generally, Get Guaranteed)
Wednesday September 30th
Two for tonight.
Charging Indian has some good Kempton backclass and looks underestimated by the market in the opener at 5.50. Have a look at the old form and you'll see what I mean, he is well drawn and represents a stable who have been in fine form.
We can't believe the price of Rowan Tiger in the 8.50 contest. He is 9 times the price of the Prescott favourite and on bare form has little to find. The fav has had some hard races and we all saw the Prescott "good thing" turned over at Southwell yesterday. It does happen! Rowan Tiger came of age last time with a nice course and distance victory and looks progressive now. Pat Cosgrave rides and the stable continue in fine form. 9/1 is an insult and we're going maximum on an each-way basis.
Best Recommendations:
5.50 Charging Indian 2pts win @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes)
8.50 Rowan Tiger 5pts each-way @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed Maximum Bet)
Another big priced Maximum Bet Winner!
Charging Indian has some good Kempton backclass and looks underestimated by the market in the opener at 5.50. Have a look at the old form and you'll see what I mean, he is well drawn and represents a stable who have been in fine form.
We can't believe the price of Rowan Tiger in the 8.50 contest. He is 9 times the price of the Prescott favourite and on bare form has little to find. The fav has had some hard races and we all saw the Prescott "good thing" turned over at Southwell yesterday. It does happen! Rowan Tiger came of age last time with a nice course and distance victory and looks progressive now. Pat Cosgrave rides and the stable continue in fine form. 9/1 is an insult and we're going maximum on an each-way basis.
Best Recommendations:
5.50 Charging Indian 2pts win @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes)
8.50 Rowan Tiger 5pts each-way @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed Maximum Bet)
Another big priced Maximum Bet Winner!
Friday September 18th
One bet for this afternoon and a possible evening bet which will be released at 5pm:
Brian Meehan is having another cracking season with his juveniles and it it interesting he sends Sophie's Beau back to Newmarket for this strapping colt's second run. He made a very eye catching debut over seven furlongs here on August 14th, pulling Daryl Holland's arms out for most of the race, running green but seeing out his race very well under tender handling at the finish. He finished 5th of 16 which struck me as very promising given how much energy he had expended in the early stages. Meehan steps him back to six furlongs which should suit him perfectly at this stage given the visual evidence of his first two starts, and he retains a group one entry in the Middle Park. The selection is a very strong looking physical specimen and I expect him to come on leaps and bounds for his debut run, as manyb of Meehan's do. The stable's jockey of choice, Martin Dwyer, takes the ride.
Best Recommendation:
2.00 Newmarket Sophie's Beau, 3pts each-way @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) E/W 2nd
Brian Meehan is having another cracking season with his juveniles and it it interesting he sends Sophie's Beau back to Newmarket for this strapping colt's second run. He made a very eye catching debut over seven furlongs here on August 14th, pulling Daryl Holland's arms out for most of the race, running green but seeing out his race very well under tender handling at the finish. He finished 5th of 16 which struck me as very promising given how much energy he had expended in the early stages. Meehan steps him back to six furlongs which should suit him perfectly at this stage given the visual evidence of his first two starts, and he retains a group one entry in the Middle Park. The selection is a very strong looking physical specimen and I expect him to come on leaps and bounds for his debut run, as manyb of Meehan's do. The stable's jockey of choice, Martin Dwyer, takes the ride.
Best Recommendation:
2.00 Newmarket Sophie's Beau, 3pts each-way @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) E/W 2nd
Thursday September 17th
Two bets for today, one is a maximum.
The marathon handicap at Pontefract looks like a race with plenty of pace in it despite the relatively small field. Quite a few of these like to be up there and the likes of Promise Maker won't be having an easy time on the front end a la Catterick. It's easy to say that will set it up for a closer like Jackday, but on a tight track like this I much prefer something that can race midfield, stalk the pace from just behind it, and gallop to the line. Kanpai is that horse. He came second in this contest last year and has been lined up for the race again. It took a career best from Kiribati King (bottomed him) to beat Kanpai last year, the selection stayed on late and may have won had more use have been made of him. He races off the same mark and goes well fresh. Stephen Craine takes the ride, he was seen to good effect yesterday at Yarmouth on the difficult to win with Arizona John. I think the selection has everything in his favour and is only such a big price on the basis of his absence. He has shown before that that is not a problem and I'm happy to have an each-way maximum.
Dance Card makes her handicap debut up at Ayr. I've looked through the race and I reckon if she reproduces her Newcastle form she should win. She has the potential to be a lot better than these.
Best Recommendation:
4.30 Pontefract KANPAI 5pts each-way @ 12/1 (Maximum bet)
5.20 Ayr DANCE CARD 3pts win @ 6/1 (Stan James)
The marathon handicap at Pontefract looks like a race with plenty of pace in it despite the relatively small field. Quite a few of these like to be up there and the likes of Promise Maker won't be having an easy time on the front end a la Catterick. It's easy to say that will set it up for a closer like Jackday, but on a tight track like this I much prefer something that can race midfield, stalk the pace from just behind it, and gallop to the line. Kanpai is that horse. He came second in this contest last year and has been lined up for the race again. It took a career best from Kiribati King (bottomed him) to beat Kanpai last year, the selection stayed on late and may have won had more use have been made of him. He races off the same mark and goes well fresh. Stephen Craine takes the ride, he was seen to good effect yesterday at Yarmouth on the difficult to win with Arizona John. I think the selection has everything in his favour and is only such a big price on the basis of his absence. He has shown before that that is not a problem and I'm happy to have an each-way maximum.
Dance Card makes her handicap debut up at Ayr. I've looked through the race and I reckon if she reproduces her Newcastle form she should win. She has the potential to be a lot better than these.
Best Recommendation:
4.30 Pontefract KANPAI 5pts each-way @ 12/1 (Maximum bet)
5.20 Ayr DANCE CARD 3pts win @ 6/1 (Stan James)
Wednesday September 16th
Hi all,
Hope you were all on Dragonessa at 25/1 today. It makes up for a below par week last week. Just a reminder to you all to keep patience with our betting systems. We select horses at big prices fairly often, and we can't hope to win every day. But with the likes of Highly Regal winning at 33/1 ten days ago, and a 25/1 winner today, we will always stay ahead. We think about the staking very carefully too so follow it closely.
We have some early news for tomorrow. Mutawarath is priced at 11/2 with bet365 for the 6.50 at Kempton. We are quite sure he is the best horse in the race, he likes to front run and is well drawn with the right jockey to do so. He is really good value at 11/2 and we think he could go off a lot shorter so get on as soon as possible. We made 48 points today, so we're outlaying five on this selection.
Early Price Advice:
Wednesday 6.50 Kempton Mutawarath 5pts win @ 11/2 (Bet 365 - Guaranteed)
Hope you were all on Dragonessa at 25/1 today. It makes up for a below par week last week. Just a reminder to you all to keep patience with our betting systems. We select horses at big prices fairly often, and we can't hope to win every day. But with the likes of Highly Regal winning at 33/1 ten days ago, and a 25/1 winner today, we will always stay ahead. We think about the staking very carefully too so follow it closely.
We have some early news for tomorrow. Mutawarath is priced at 11/2 with bet365 for the 6.50 at Kempton. We are quite sure he is the best horse in the race, he likes to front run and is well drawn with the right jockey to do so. He is really good value at 11/2 and we think he could go off a lot shorter so get on as soon as possible. We made 48 points today, so we're outlaying five on this selection.
Early Price Advice:
Wednesday 6.50 Kempton Mutawarath 5pts win @ 11/2 (Bet 365 - Guaranteed)
Tuesday September 15th
More sub standard stuff today but we there is one race of interest.
Wings Of Faith was early favourite for Lingfield's 4.20 and I thought he was a poor one. He finished all too late at Kempton last time out and has proved frustrating all year. He is not a horse to back at a short price on what he has shown so far and it is no surprise he drifted. Hugh Taylor's selection has crashed in the markets, it looks to have a chance, but is a completely false price now. The rest at shorter prices look fairly exposed.
Two horses interest me at huge prices. Dave Evans runs Arkellion, whom he picked up from the Haynes yard after his first start and gelded. Since then he has shown a glimmer of hope in two decent maidens, but he enters nursery company of a very fair mark of 55 and may just be a bit better than that. The booking of a top jockey who boasts a 21% strike rate for the yard, who will have to do his lowest weight of 8-8 on order not to put up overweight, takes the eye very much. Callan hangs around 30 mins for his third ride of they day and that might be significant.
Dragonella represents Bryn Palling who has a winner from just three runners at this track in the past five years. The selection improved for her first two runs when showing very good early speed at Kempton in a maiden which has worked out quite well. The winner has since won a group 3, and the rest of the field have acquited themselves well at a lower level. She shaped as if 6f was her trip that day and the step back will suit. She is well drawn in stall ten for one who likes to race prominently and 25/1 is too big.
Best Recommendation:
4.20 Lingfield 2pts win Arkellion @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
4.20 Lingfield 2pts win Dragonessa @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) Won
Wings Of Faith was early favourite for Lingfield's 4.20 and I thought he was a poor one. He finished all too late at Kempton last time out and has proved frustrating all year. He is not a horse to back at a short price on what he has shown so far and it is no surprise he drifted. Hugh Taylor's selection has crashed in the markets, it looks to have a chance, but is a completely false price now. The rest at shorter prices look fairly exposed.
Two horses interest me at huge prices. Dave Evans runs Arkellion, whom he picked up from the Haynes yard after his first start and gelded. Since then he has shown a glimmer of hope in two decent maidens, but he enters nursery company of a very fair mark of 55 and may just be a bit better than that. The booking of a top jockey who boasts a 21% strike rate for the yard, who will have to do his lowest weight of 8-8 on order not to put up overweight, takes the eye very much. Callan hangs around 30 mins for his third ride of they day and that might be significant.
Dragonella represents Bryn Palling who has a winner from just three runners at this track in the past five years. The selection improved for her first two runs when showing very good early speed at Kempton in a maiden which has worked out quite well. The winner has since won a group 3, and the rest of the field have acquited themselves well at a lower level. She shaped as if 6f was her trip that day and the step back will suit. She is well drawn in stall ten for one who likes to race prominently and 25/1 is too big.
Best Recommendation:
4.20 Lingfield 2pts win Arkellion @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
4.20 Lingfield 2pts win Dragonessa @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) Won
Friday September 11th
Two at Wolves which are both very interesting.
Lucky Dan was awkward at the start last time out, had to be rousted into the race, and still had the energy to pull clear with the winner last time out at Thirsk. The run really caught my eye because usually he travels very well and he done well to finish as close as he did. His only previous run at Wolves was a very good one and despite edging up in the weights he can win this race under the excellent Silvestre De Sousa, from a good draw in stall 1.
Al Khimaya is a more confident bet. She represents a stable who do really well on the all weather. She ran a really good race from the worst of the draw on her penultimate run at Folkstone. It was that famous day when they overwatered and she pulled well clear of the stands side group. She drifted badly in the market at Warwick and I would not be surprised if she was edgy in the paddock or in season. She has had a break since and returns tonight at Wolves in an average looking race. She might just be an 80 filly and the booking of Ted Durcan suggests connections mean business.
I'm going to advise a small win double also.
Best Recommendation:
6.10 Wolves LUCKY DAN 2pts win @ 7/1 (Stan James, Guaranteed)
8.40 Wolves 4pts win AL KHIMAYA @ 4/1 (Boylesports, Guaranteed)
1pt win double on the above pair, @ 13/2 and 4/1 (Boylesports)
Lucky Dan was awkward at the start last time out, had to be rousted into the race, and still had the energy to pull clear with the winner last time out at Thirsk. The run really caught my eye because usually he travels very well and he done well to finish as close as he did. His only previous run at Wolves was a very good one and despite edging up in the weights he can win this race under the excellent Silvestre De Sousa, from a good draw in stall 1.
Al Khimaya is a more confident bet. She represents a stable who do really well on the all weather. She ran a really good race from the worst of the draw on her penultimate run at Folkstone. It was that famous day when they overwatered and she pulled well clear of the stands side group. She drifted badly in the market at Warwick and I would not be surprised if she was edgy in the paddock or in season. She has had a break since and returns tonight at Wolves in an average looking race. She might just be an 80 filly and the booking of Ted Durcan suggests connections mean business.
I'm going to advise a small win double also.
Best Recommendation:
6.10 Wolves LUCKY DAN 2pts win @ 7/1 (Stan James, Guaranteed)
8.40 Wolves 4pts win AL KHIMAYA @ 4/1 (Boylesports, Guaranteed)
1pt win double on the above pair, @ 13/2 and 4/1 (Boylesports)
Thursday September 10th
One bet today.
The sales race at Donny seems to have the market lopsided in favour of Taajub. He is a good horse but is drawn 4 and may be a bit isolated from the pace in the race. He is not proven over this distance and was beaten handy enough by Showcasing. The two other class horses in the race look like the Johnson pair. Lowdown won really impressively for us at Glorious Goodwood and has a draw which affords his jockey options. Take Ten is improving with racing and is also drawn quite well. I found them impossible to separate this morning, so I'm going to dutch the pair - I think this maximises our chances especially given that the each-way terms are not great.
Best Recommendation:
3.10 Doncaster TAKE TEN 2pts win @ 14/1 (Bet 365)
3.10 Doncaster LOWDOWN 2pts win @ 14/1 (Paddy Power - both prices guaranteed)
The sales race at Donny seems to have the market lopsided in favour of Taajub. He is a good horse but is drawn 4 and may be a bit isolated from the pace in the race. He is not proven over this distance and was beaten handy enough by Showcasing. The two other class horses in the race look like the Johnson pair. Lowdown won really impressively for us at Glorious Goodwood and has a draw which affords his jockey options. Take Ten is improving with racing and is also drawn quite well. I found them impossible to separate this morning, so I'm going to dutch the pair - I think this maximises our chances especially given that the each-way terms are not great.
Best Recommendation:
3.10 Doncaster TAKE TEN 2pts win @ 14/1 (Bet 365)
3.10 Doncaster LOWDOWN 2pts win @ 14/1 (Paddy Power - both prices guaranteed)
Monday September 7th
No bets today guys. Pretty poor stuff on the whole, but tomorrow looks better from a betting point of view and we may have a bet. Happy enough to sit on the weekend's profits.
I thought Harrison George ran a fair race yesterday and would not rule out an Ayr Gold Cup win yet. Perhaps first time blinkers?
I thought Harrison George ran a fair race yesterday and would not rule out an Ayr Gold Cup win yet. Perhaps first time blinkers?
Saturday September 5th
A nice 3pts e/w 9/2 winner in the shape of Promise Maker yesterday and good profits on the day. It's heartening that our bigger bets are hitting the target.
Racing today looks insignificant following the tragic deaths overnight of two young apprentice jockeys. I'm sure everybodys thoughts will be with their families and friends at this sad time, it really shocked everyone here and we've posted our condolences elsewhere.
The Irish Champion Stakes is being billed as the race of the season, and what really interests me and got my radar up was the fact that Aidan O'Brien is running Mastercraftsman. He is a top class colt, especially with a touch of soft in the ground, and I'm sure the ground at Leopardstown will be a bit softer than at York, and this could be a part of Aidan O'Brien's thinking. I would suggest that he must be working well at home, indeed better than before York, for O'Brien to consider running him against a horse who apparently beat him fair and square last time. You have to look at the race shape too. There are only four horses in here with any sort of chance of overcoming the favourite, and with three places paid, Mastercraftsman becomes a very appealing each-way bet at 7/1. We think he is a 4/1 - 9/2 shot at biggest, and I can't believe Bet 365 are offering 7/1 each-way three places. I'm going to make this an each-way maximum bet. I am confident he will rustle up the favourite at least, and is a place good thing.
Highland Legacy looks a decent bet in the Old Borough Cup. Michael Bell sounds upbeat about his chances and his string are in good form. 14/1 is too big and Neil Callan is an eye catching jockey booking. The ground will suit him better than Alanbrooke, he is 8lb better off for a length beating by him last time at Ascot, and is around twice the price! Stable and jockey are in good form.
Highly Regal is worth a minimum stakes each-way in the 3.10 at Kempton. He has been aimed at this race all year and has won four times at Kempton.
Keep an eye out for a big run from Ardent Prince in the 9.20 at Wolves. He probably has too many question marks about him to warrant a bet, but it's interesting Robert Winston hangs around to ride this course and distance winner.
Best Recommendations:
2.55 Haydock Highland Legacy 2pts win 2pts place Highland Legacy @ 14/1 (Betfred, price guaranteed)
3.10 Kempton, 0.5pts win 0pt 5pts place Highly Regal, @ 55.0 (win), take Betfair S.P. for place bet Won - 54/1 Winner!!!
3.50 Leopardstown Mastercraftsman, 5pts win 5pts place (Maximum Bet) @ 7/1 (Bet 365, price guaranteed) Placed
Racing today looks insignificant following the tragic deaths overnight of two young apprentice jockeys. I'm sure everybodys thoughts will be with their families and friends at this sad time, it really shocked everyone here and we've posted our condolences elsewhere.
The Irish Champion Stakes is being billed as the race of the season, and what really interests me and got my radar up was the fact that Aidan O'Brien is running Mastercraftsman. He is a top class colt, especially with a touch of soft in the ground, and I'm sure the ground at Leopardstown will be a bit softer than at York, and this could be a part of Aidan O'Brien's thinking. I would suggest that he must be working well at home, indeed better than before York, for O'Brien to consider running him against a horse who apparently beat him fair and square last time. You have to look at the race shape too. There are only four horses in here with any sort of chance of overcoming the favourite, and with three places paid, Mastercraftsman becomes a very appealing each-way bet at 7/1. We think he is a 4/1 - 9/2 shot at biggest, and I can't believe Bet 365 are offering 7/1 each-way three places. I'm going to make this an each-way maximum bet. I am confident he will rustle up the favourite at least, and is a place good thing.
Highland Legacy looks a decent bet in the Old Borough Cup. Michael Bell sounds upbeat about his chances and his string are in good form. 14/1 is too big and Neil Callan is an eye catching jockey booking. The ground will suit him better than Alanbrooke, he is 8lb better off for a length beating by him last time at Ascot, and is around twice the price! Stable and jockey are in good form.
Highly Regal is worth a minimum stakes each-way in the 3.10 at Kempton. He has been aimed at this race all year and has won four times at Kempton.
Keep an eye out for a big run from Ardent Prince in the 9.20 at Wolves. He probably has too many question marks about him to warrant a bet, but it's interesting Robert Winston hangs around to ride this course and distance winner.
Best Recommendations:
2.55 Haydock Highland Legacy 2pts win 2pts place Highland Legacy @ 14/1 (Betfred, price guaranteed)
3.10 Kempton, 0.5pts win 0pt 5pts place Highly Regal, @ 55.0 (win), take Betfair S.P. for place bet Won - 54/1 Winner!!!
3.50 Leopardstown Mastercraftsman, 5pts win 5pts place (Maximum Bet) @ 7/1 (Bet 365, price guaranteed) Placed
Friday September 4th
Two bets today.
Promise Maker is our main bet. He runs in the 5.00 at Catterick, and below I've copied our analysis of his chances last time out. We think he could get an easy lead again today and looks over priced at 9/2 for a horse with no problem in these conditions.
Trainer Trainer Tim Walford boasts a 21% strike rate with his older horses at Catterick. Recent runners have been running well, although without winning. Jockey Graham Gibbons has an 11% strike rate at Catterick and has consistently maintained a 14.7% strike rate in the past 60 days, and is having his best season in the saddle. He takes over from apprentice Amy Ryan today. Horse and Race Conditions Promise Maker has been running well this year, winning at Ripon and twice placing at this course. He steps up four furlongs in trip today but looks a stayer in the making for a yard who do well with this type of horse. His sire won the Belmont Stakes, and the dam is related to some good stayers - despite the rather low stamina index, his pedigree suggests he will stay. Visual evidence from his recent Catterick second suggests he was one paced at the business end rather than weakening. The ground was soft / good to soft in places at Catterick that day, and conditions will be similar today. Race times on the day suggest the ground was riding slow, Promise Maker went fine on it that day and should act well on it today. His poor effort last time out can be put down to the race coming too soon, he tends to need three weeks between his races to show his best form, which is what he gets today. He is currently rated 62, and has shaped as though he is a bit better than this mark.
Second bet is Beaux Yeux in the 4.30 at Catterick. He represents a stable in flying form who had a double and a second on their last visit to this track. He is ridden by the stable apprentice who is probably the best 5lb claimer around. I associate his trainer with soft ground 7f horses like Smarty Socks, Toby Tobias and others, and it is interesting this filly steps up to 7f today. The form of her last run has been franked with the 1st and 10th winning since, and the second and 11th running 2nd since. She was also very poorly drawn that day and done best of those drawn either very high or very low. She stayed on takingly and the price today in a poor contest looks massive.
Best Recommendation:
4.30 Catterick Beaux Yeux, 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
5.00 Catterick Promise Maker, 3pts each-way @ 9/2 (Generally, guaranteed) Won
Promise Maker is our main bet. He runs in the 5.00 at Catterick, and below I've copied our analysis of his chances last time out. We think he could get an easy lead again today and looks over priced at 9/2 for a horse with no problem in these conditions.
Trainer Trainer Tim Walford boasts a 21% strike rate with his older horses at Catterick. Recent runners have been running well, although without winning. Jockey Graham Gibbons has an 11% strike rate at Catterick and has consistently maintained a 14.7% strike rate in the past 60 days, and is having his best season in the saddle. He takes over from apprentice Amy Ryan today. Horse and Race Conditions Promise Maker has been running well this year, winning at Ripon and twice placing at this course. He steps up four furlongs in trip today but looks a stayer in the making for a yard who do well with this type of horse. His sire won the Belmont Stakes, and the dam is related to some good stayers - despite the rather low stamina index, his pedigree suggests he will stay. Visual evidence from his recent Catterick second suggests he was one paced at the business end rather than weakening. The ground was soft / good to soft in places at Catterick that day, and conditions will be similar today. Race times on the day suggest the ground was riding slow, Promise Maker went fine on it that day and should act well on it today. His poor effort last time out can be put down to the race coming too soon, he tends to need three weeks between his races to show his best form, which is what he gets today. He is currently rated 62, and has shaped as though he is a bit better than this mark.
Second bet is Beaux Yeux in the 4.30 at Catterick. He represents a stable in flying form who had a double and a second on their last visit to this track. He is ridden by the stable apprentice who is probably the best 5lb claimer around. I associate his trainer with soft ground 7f horses like Smarty Socks, Toby Tobias and others, and it is interesting this filly steps up to 7f today. The form of her last run has been franked with the 1st and 10th winning since, and the second and 11th running 2nd since. She was also very poorly drawn that day and done best of those drawn either very high or very low. She stayed on takingly and the price today in a poor contest looks massive.
Best Recommendation:
4.30 Catterick Beaux Yeux, 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
5.00 Catterick Promise Maker, 3pts each-way @ 9/2 (Generally, guaranteed) Won
Thursday September 3rd
We got the second placed horse up at Haydock yesterday, at around 25/1 betfair S.P., but found one too good in the form of She's No Muppet.
One bet this afternoon, but please note that we will most probably have a bet at Wolves this evening too, expect an e-mail before 5.00pm.
Capucci in the 3.40 at Redcar is the selection for today. Trainer John Quinn does well with this sort, and boasts a decent 14% strike rate with his older horses at Redcar. Capucci's only win came over a mile on Good To Firm at Newbury, and if the rain stays away or does not change the going, he holds an excellent chance of a place at least dropped back to a mile today. He has a lovely quick ground action (son of King's Best) and made ground around the home turn at Ayr before fading late on over an extended nine furlongs on soft ground which may have been too far for him. Apprentice Jamie Kyne has been in winning form for the stable recently and takes the ride and a handy 5lbs off. Quinn's horses have been running well, with a 6/35 17.6% strike rate in the last 14 days, with a place strike rate of 34.3%. The favourite Collateral Damage needs some cut in the ground, he is 0-0-11 on ground with "Firm" in the description, and at 2/1 really makes a market for us. Providing the ground remains good or good to firm, Capucci represents excellent each-way value at the 20/1 mark.
Best Recommendation:
3.40 Redcar Capucci, 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (VC Bet, Stan James - Price Guaranteed)
One bet this afternoon, but please note that we will most probably have a bet at Wolves this evening too, expect an e-mail before 5.00pm.
Capucci in the 3.40 at Redcar is the selection for today. Trainer John Quinn does well with this sort, and boasts a decent 14% strike rate with his older horses at Redcar. Capucci's only win came over a mile on Good To Firm at Newbury, and if the rain stays away or does not change the going, he holds an excellent chance of a place at least dropped back to a mile today. He has a lovely quick ground action (son of King's Best) and made ground around the home turn at Ayr before fading late on over an extended nine furlongs on soft ground which may have been too far for him. Apprentice Jamie Kyne has been in winning form for the stable recently and takes the ride and a handy 5lbs off. Quinn's horses have been running well, with a 6/35 17.6% strike rate in the last 14 days, with a place strike rate of 34.3%. The favourite Collateral Damage needs some cut in the ground, he is 0-0-11 on ground with "Firm" in the description, and at 2/1 really makes a market for us. Providing the ground remains good or good to firm, Capucci represents excellent each-way value at the 20/1 mark.
Best Recommendation:
3.40 Redcar Capucci, 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (VC Bet, Stan James - Price Guaranteed)
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