Friday September 4th

Two bets today.

Promise Maker is our main bet. He runs in the 5.00 at Catterick, and below I've copied our analysis of his chances last time out. We think he could get an easy lead again today and looks over priced at 9/2 for a horse with no problem in these conditions.


Trainer Trainer Tim Walford boasts a 21% strike rate with his older horses at Catterick. Recent runners have been running well, although without winning. Jockey Graham Gibbons has an 11% strike rate at Catterick and has consistently maintained a 14.7% strike rate in the past 60 days, and is having his best season in the saddle. He takes over from apprentice Amy Ryan today. Horse and Race Conditions Promise Maker has been running well this year, winning at Ripon and twice placing at this course. He steps up four furlongs in trip today but looks a stayer in the making for a yard who do well with this type of horse. His sire won the Belmont Stakes, and the dam is related to some good stayers - despite the rather low stamina index, his pedigree suggests he will stay. Visual evidence from his recent Catterick second suggests he was one paced at the business end rather than weakening. The ground was soft / good to soft in places at Catterick that day, and conditions will be similar today. Race times on the day suggest the ground was riding slow, Promise Maker went fine on it that day and should act well on it today. His poor effort last time out can be put down to the race coming too soon, he tends to need three weeks between his races to show his best form, which is what he gets today. He is currently rated 62, and has shaped as though he is a bit better than this mark.


Second bet is Beaux Yeux in the 4.30 at Catterick. He represents a stable in flying form who had a double and a second on their last visit to this track. He is ridden by the stable apprentice who is probably the best 5lb claimer around. I associate his trainer with soft ground 7f horses like Smarty Socks, Toby Tobias and others, and it is interesting this filly steps up to 7f today. The form of her last run has been franked with the 1st and 10th winning since, and the second and 11th running 2nd since. She was also very poorly drawn that day and done best of those drawn either very high or very low. She stayed on takingly and the price today in a poor contest looks massive.


Best Recommendation:


4.30 Catterick Beaux Yeux, 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Generally, guaranteed)

5.00 Catterick Promise Maker, 3pts each-way @ 9/2 (Generally, guaranteed) Won