Tuesday October 13th

An early mail today as our only interest is in the 1.50pm contest.

A nice 33/1 place yesterday, and I thought Holcote Rose looked particularly well - she is powerfully built and has a lovely, fluent action - a Kieren Fallon drive probably would have won the race for her but she wasn't overly pushed and despite the barrage of late support I think connections looked after her with a view to the longer term.

To be honest there isn't much to get excited about to day, but the fillies maiden at Newcastle does interest me. In light of recent winnings, I think it would be foolish not to have a small bet on two horses I feel are overpriced.

Shayla represents Alan Swinbank, who has already had a 40/1 maiden winner at this track this year. She shaped really well on her debut over six furlongs at Hamilton Park, missing the break by 5 lengths and putting in all her best work at the finish after being off the bridle most of the way. It is interesting Swinbank steps her up to a mile so quickly - it is not his usual style to step a horse up two furlongs in trip so soon - but I think it will suit her perfectly. She is fairly speedily bred, being out of Pastoral Pursuits, but I don't see any reason why a mile will stretch her based on her debut. She looks a strong, nicely built sort. Alan Swinbank's horses are often ignored in the market second time out but they do tend to improve markedly for their debut run. I think the 33/1 available with Bet 365 is a ridiculous price, 14/1 - 16/1 is more in line with my thinking.

Yankee Bright, representing James Given, is another whom the market seems to be underestimating. She ran a really nice race on her debut over a mile at Haydock, again doing all her best work at the finish, not hard pressed, behind Anaya, who reopposes today. Quite why Anaya is half her price, I do not know, because I would expect the selection to reverse the form with normal improvement from her debut.


Of the market principals, I prefer Woodcote Bell over Deirdre, but neither one looks bombproof and I feel that, as is sometimes the case, this maiden has been priced up on stable reputation rather than form on the track.

Best Recommendation:

1.50 Newcastle Shayla, 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Bet 365 - guaranteed)

1.50 Newcastle Yankee Bright, 1.5pts each-way @ 16/1 (Bet 365 - guaranteed) E/W 3rd