One bet for tonight in the opening race at Wolves.
Mick Channon sends Leading Edge to contest the 6f handicap and it must be said she looks well handicapped on her best form off 62. She won this time last year at Great Leighs off 67 and this looks a poor enough contest even for this low grade, so I think she has every chance. She has been priced up on the fact that she is poorly drawn, but with an experienced pilot like Chris Catlin taking the ride I'm inclined to take a chance on her over six furlongs - jockeys get a little more time to get organised and the draw bias over this trip is not quite as profound as over the minimum 5f. I make her a 13/2 chance and the 11/1 available with Stan James looks to big. I like to follow fillies who win at a particular time of year and it seems this horse likes to win in winter, she has a win in October, November and December to her name. She has shown signs lately that she is running into her best form and with Chris Catlin booked in place of the apprentices who have ridden her recently, I think tonight is the night she will get in the money at least.
Best Recommendation:
6.20 Wolves Leading Edge, 2pts each-way @ 11/1 (Stan James, guaranteed) WON
Friday, November 27, 2009
Thursday November 26th
Another fantastic day yesterday. Street Entertainer ran no sort of race for us in the afternoon, but our 16/1 shot Crazy Chris ran a stormer to do the in-form Thunderstruck in a photo, and gave us another massive priced winner.
In light of the fact that we've been doing so well lately I see no reason not to play up a few points on apparent outsider Bella Fighetta (4.00pm). She is bred for this trip and surface, travels with zest and has a capable 5lb claimer on today and first time blinkers. She has shown a tendency to run about a bit but with blinkers to focus her, we might see this physically imposing type show some proper ability today. This is a terrible race, and 12/1 was available on her to place in the first three of seven up until a minute ago. Similar prices should be available again before the off. Speculative but big value in my book and extremely rewarding if we get a positive result.
Bondage represents James Fanshawe. He looked green but shaped with real promise in a Yarmouth maiden which has turned out to be stronger than it first looked on his debut. He was settled out the back early and switched off as much as possible under Adam Kirby. He looked as if he would come on physically and mentally for that run and he really strides out well. For some reason, the video reminded me of watching the debut of Dominic Elsworth's Highland Quaich - the physical scope and fluency of movement was there, but the horse was just too green to figure. Highland Quaich was a well backed winner second time out. I reckon Bondage could be a similar type. The yard have been in fine form in the past few months and I think this already gelded son of Whipper can run a place at least here.
Best Recommendation:
4.00 Kempton Bella Fighetta 1.5pts win 1.5pts place @ 110.0 (win), Betfair S.P. (Place)
6.00 Kempton Bondage, 3pts each-way @ 12/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed - Also 12/1 with three other bookmakers, but not on a guaranteed price basis
In light of the fact that we've been doing so well lately I see no reason not to play up a few points on apparent outsider Bella Fighetta (4.00pm). She is bred for this trip and surface, travels with zest and has a capable 5lb claimer on today and first time blinkers. She has shown a tendency to run about a bit but with blinkers to focus her, we might see this physically imposing type show some proper ability today. This is a terrible race, and 12/1 was available on her to place in the first three of seven up until a minute ago. Similar prices should be available again before the off. Speculative but big value in my book and extremely rewarding if we get a positive result.
Bondage represents James Fanshawe. He looked green but shaped with real promise in a Yarmouth maiden which has turned out to be stronger than it first looked on his debut. He was settled out the back early and switched off as much as possible under Adam Kirby. He looked as if he would come on physically and mentally for that run and he really strides out well. For some reason, the video reminded me of watching the debut of Dominic Elsworth's Highland Quaich - the physical scope and fluency of movement was there, but the horse was just too green to figure. Highland Quaich was a well backed winner second time out. I reckon Bondage could be a similar type. The yard have been in fine form in the past few months and I think this already gelded son of Whipper can run a place at least here.
Best Recommendation:
4.00 Kempton Bella Fighetta 1.5pts win 1.5pts place @ 110.0 (win), Betfair S.P. (Place)
6.00 Kempton Bondage, 3pts each-way @ 12/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed - Also 12/1 with three other bookmakers, but not on a guaranteed price basis
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Wednesday November 25th
One for this afternoon with an extra bet this evening.
Street Entertainer done us proud at Lingfield last time getting done by a short head at 20/1, from a bad draw in a better maiden than this. I've gone through this race and I think he should be a 10/11 shot today. The bookies have chalked him up bigger due to the stable's in and out form in my view, but the 13/8 with Victor Chandler takes the biscuit. We'll have five points on to win at that price, which is guaranteed.
In the 1m2f handicap at Kempton, Bryn Palling's Crazy Chris looks worthy of support at a big price. The selection is the most lightly raced and probably unexposed of this bunch, and a look at the video replay of her last run on polytrack at Lingfield over a mile suggests she might be better than a mark of 68. She made solid late headway over a trip which is probably on the short side for her to come second to a very good horse who id probably a mid 80's animal. Given that she has won a bumper and her dam won over 1m2f, the step up in trip here ought to be within her reach even though she did not settle over the trip last time out. Her sire's progeny tend to go well on artificial surfaces and after that encouraging run at Lingfield it may be that a return to polytrack will bring out the best in her. She recently transferred from Tom Dascombe's yard and not many improve for that, but her debut win was for another trainer again, and she has not run a bad race as of yet. 16/1 looks a very big price and I'm happy to play each-way.
Best Recommendation:
2.35 Lingfield, Street Entertainer, 5pts win @ 13/8 (VC Bet, guaranteed)
7.20 Kempton Crazy Chris, 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Coral, guaranteed, Sporting Bet) WON
Street Entertainer done us proud at Lingfield last time getting done by a short head at 20/1, from a bad draw in a better maiden than this. I've gone through this race and I think he should be a 10/11 shot today. The bookies have chalked him up bigger due to the stable's in and out form in my view, but the 13/8 with Victor Chandler takes the biscuit. We'll have five points on to win at that price, which is guaranteed.
In the 1m2f handicap at Kempton, Bryn Palling's Crazy Chris looks worthy of support at a big price. The selection is the most lightly raced and probably unexposed of this bunch, and a look at the video replay of her last run on polytrack at Lingfield over a mile suggests she might be better than a mark of 68. She made solid late headway over a trip which is probably on the short side for her to come second to a very good horse who id probably a mid 80's animal. Given that she has won a bumper and her dam won over 1m2f, the step up in trip here ought to be within her reach even though she did not settle over the trip last time out. Her sire's progeny tend to go well on artificial surfaces and after that encouraging run at Lingfield it may be that a return to polytrack will bring out the best in her. She recently transferred from Tom Dascombe's yard and not many improve for that, but her debut win was for another trainer again, and she has not run a bad race as of yet. 16/1 looks a very big price and I'm happy to play each-way.
Best Recommendation:
2.35 Lingfield, Street Entertainer, 5pts win @ 13/8 (VC Bet, guaranteed)
7.20 Kempton Crazy Chris, 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Coral, guaranteed, Sporting Bet) WON
Tuesday November 24th
Another winner yesterday but unfortunately a late non-runner and rule 4 deduction meant our even money was no more. It is rare I bet at evens, and I simply would not put up a 4/6 shot as a recommendation, but in my opinion the evens was very good value. He won handy enough, and it's 3pts profit whatever way you look at it.
A busy day today with three bets.
In the 1.30 Novice Stakes, Budva represents Hughie Morrison, who does really well at Southwell but whose juveniles tend to come on for the run. He missed the break on his debut, and had to be rousted to get a position but he came on the bridle when he realised what the game was all about, and showed some promise suffering a wide trip all the way, galloping on late down the straight but being eased when his chance had gone. There is little doubt he will come on for that run mentally and in terms of fitness, and I think he is a big price at 4/1 today with the market principals both making their racecourse debuts here. Stable jock Steve Drowne takes the ride and while the selection may need further in time, he can go close in this race if he is able to lie up with the pace early doors.
In the 2.00 5f handicap, Embra is worth a flyer at a double figure price. The selection has no fibresand experience, but she has shown herself to be in really good heart lately with a promising run at Kempton and another last time out at Lingfield, where she got no run and could not pick up in the sixth furlong. Fibresand and a straight five furlongs might just be her thing, and I think if she handles the surface and faces the kickback, she can power clear in the closing stages here. She has a fair draw and a good 3lb claimer on board.
In the 2.30 maiden over 1m4f, Mary Hambro's Warren Bank is worth an each-way interest. The selection ran a decent race second time out at Wolves over an extended nine furlongs last time, behind a Godolphin hotpot who is basically a group horse. The third has run well in a fair handicap since, and on breeding Warren Bank should appreciate the step up in trip. The Gosden fav bombed out last time and has questions to answer, and the Prescott second fav doesn't look up to much. I thought Warren Bank should have been second favourite here, and on that basis the 7/1 on offer is good value. He is George Baker's only ride of the day and he has a 2-11 strike rate for the stable in recent years returning a decent level stakes profit. The stable's recent runners have performed well.
Best Recommendation:
1.30 Southwell Budva, 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
2.00 Southwell Embra, 2pts win @ 12/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
2.30 Southwell Warren Bank, 3pts each-way @ 7/1 (Boylesports, guaranteed)
A busy day today with three bets.
In the 1.30 Novice Stakes, Budva represents Hughie Morrison, who does really well at Southwell but whose juveniles tend to come on for the run. He missed the break on his debut, and had to be rousted to get a position but he came on the bridle when he realised what the game was all about, and showed some promise suffering a wide trip all the way, galloping on late down the straight but being eased when his chance had gone. There is little doubt he will come on for that run mentally and in terms of fitness, and I think he is a big price at 4/1 today with the market principals both making their racecourse debuts here. Stable jock Steve Drowne takes the ride and while the selection may need further in time, he can go close in this race if he is able to lie up with the pace early doors.
In the 2.00 5f handicap, Embra is worth a flyer at a double figure price. The selection has no fibresand experience, but she has shown herself to be in really good heart lately with a promising run at Kempton and another last time out at Lingfield, where she got no run and could not pick up in the sixth furlong. Fibresand and a straight five furlongs might just be her thing, and I think if she handles the surface and faces the kickback, she can power clear in the closing stages here. She has a fair draw and a good 3lb claimer on board.
In the 2.30 maiden over 1m4f, Mary Hambro's Warren Bank is worth an each-way interest. The selection ran a decent race second time out at Wolves over an extended nine furlongs last time, behind a Godolphin hotpot who is basically a group horse. The third has run well in a fair handicap since, and on breeding Warren Bank should appreciate the step up in trip. The Gosden fav bombed out last time and has questions to answer, and the Prescott second fav doesn't look up to much. I thought Warren Bank should have been second favourite here, and on that basis the 7/1 on offer is good value. He is George Baker's only ride of the day and he has a 2-11 strike rate for the stable in recent years returning a decent level stakes profit. The stable's recent runners have performed well.
Best Recommendation:
1.30 Southwell Budva, 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
2.00 Southwell Embra, 2pts win @ 12/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
2.30 Southwell Warren Bank, 3pts each-way @ 7/1 (Boylesports, guaranteed)
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Monday November 23rd
A profitable weekend for us with Pittodrie Star winning on Saturday evening to land a decent each-way bet for us. We were on early at 5/1 and clearly it was a good spot because he went off 5/4!
Good jumps stuff today but not much in the way of solid betting propositions. Nicky Henderson's You're The Top makes his chase debut, and I think he is a very good horse. We'll have 4pts on at Evs given that the stable do so well in these events with horses of this profile. McCoy takes the ride and a clear round should see him win. I thought he would be around 8/11 so Evs looks value.
Best Recommendation:
12.50 Kempton You're The Top, 4pts win @ Evs (Generally, get guaranteed) WON
Good jumps stuff today but not much in the way of solid betting propositions. Nicky Henderson's You're The Top makes his chase debut, and I think he is a very good horse. We'll have 4pts on at Evs given that the stable do so well in these events with horses of this profile. McCoy takes the ride and a clear round should see him win. I thought he would be around 8/11 so Evs looks value.
Best Recommendation:
12.50 Kempton You're The Top, 4pts win @ Evs (Generally, get guaranteed) WON
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Saturday November 21st
Fantastic action today and I'll be watching all the jumps action. I fancy Notre Pere to beat Kauto Star and Shining Gale has every chance in the following race. We have two fairly confident all-weather bets for money making purposes!
John Best is in fine form, and he sends Slip Sliding Away to Lingfield to contest the 1.25 5f maiden. Steve Drowne rides and stable and jockey had a well backed winner at Wolves last night. The selection made a fair debut before running an eye catching race at Kempton last time out. He veered left from a poor draw, but made up easy headway and pulled himself right into the front three, and suffered a bad trip running three wide for most of the race. He began to fade at around the furlong pole and bar the winner that race was probably only average, but he did show a lot of speed and elements of his breeding suggest he might be an out and out sprinter. The three horses at the head of the market here look moderate, there are no superstars in the race, and from a good draw I think Slip Sliding Away represents excellent value at around 10/1.
Andrew Balding had his first winner after a lean patch at Kempton the other night and he runs Pittodrie Star in the six furlong maiden at 5.30. The selection ran a really nice race on his debut in a good Newmarket maiden, showing up well drawn wide witouht much cover, and finding for pressure until fading around a furlong from home. He is dropped back to six furlongs today which I feel is a positive move and he is well drawn to attack should the jockey wish to get a prominent position. The two market leaders may be good horses but neither has experience and the Chapple-Hyam stable have't been in the best of form. John Best's horse looks the danger but Pittodrie Star should go close in a winable race.
Best Recommendation:
1.25 Lingfield Slip Sliding Away 3pts each-way @ 10/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, guaranteed)
5.30 Kempton Pittodrie Star, 3pts each-way @ 5/1 (Sporting Bet, 9/2 guaranteed with Bet 365 and Totesport) WON
Shining Gale also won.
John Best is in fine form, and he sends Slip Sliding Away to Lingfield to contest the 1.25 5f maiden. Steve Drowne rides and stable and jockey had a well backed winner at Wolves last night. The selection made a fair debut before running an eye catching race at Kempton last time out. He veered left from a poor draw, but made up easy headway and pulled himself right into the front three, and suffered a bad trip running three wide for most of the race. He began to fade at around the furlong pole and bar the winner that race was probably only average, but he did show a lot of speed and elements of his breeding suggest he might be an out and out sprinter. The three horses at the head of the market here look moderate, there are no superstars in the race, and from a good draw I think Slip Sliding Away represents excellent value at around 10/1.
Andrew Balding had his first winner after a lean patch at Kempton the other night and he runs Pittodrie Star in the six furlong maiden at 5.30. The selection ran a really nice race on his debut in a good Newmarket maiden, showing up well drawn wide witouht much cover, and finding for pressure until fading around a furlong from home. He is dropped back to six furlongs today which I feel is a positive move and he is well drawn to attack should the jockey wish to get a prominent position. The two market leaders may be good horses but neither has experience and the Chapple-Hyam stable have't been in the best of form. John Best's horse looks the danger but Pittodrie Star should go close in a winable race.
Best Recommendation:
1.25 Lingfield Slip Sliding Away 3pts each-way @ 10/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, guaranteed)
5.30 Kempton Pittodrie Star, 3pts each-way @ 5/1 (Sporting Bet, 9/2 guaranteed with Bet 365 and Totesport) WON
Shining Gale also won.
Friday November 20th
Two bets this evening.
Proud Linus looks good each-way value in a maiden where the principals look suspect. If he has learned to settle, he is with the right man to get a tune out of him in John Ryan. 14/1 looks a good each-way price and if he can break well from his poor draw he can go close.
City Hustler represents a stable who do really well with the horses they send across the water. His pedigree suggests he should be a sprinter but he may just be one of those rare horses who defies his breeding. Having followed his progress, I've noted down umpteen times that he gets outpaced over a mile, and is usually found running on at the finish. He is tried as a stayer for the first time tonight, and I would suggest that in a race that may be run at a moderate pace, the selection may be held up in rear before being sent on around the home turn to make a late challenge. Robert Winston takes the ride and the price looks fair. Leyte Gulf is the danger.
Best Recommendation:
5.50 Wolves Proud Linus, 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Bet 365 or other guaranteed price bookmaker)
6.50 Wolves City Hustler, 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed)
Proud Linus looks good each-way value in a maiden where the principals look suspect. If he has learned to settle, he is with the right man to get a tune out of him in John Ryan. 14/1 looks a good each-way price and if he can break well from his poor draw he can go close.
City Hustler represents a stable who do really well with the horses they send across the water. His pedigree suggests he should be a sprinter but he may just be one of those rare horses who defies his breeding. Having followed his progress, I've noted down umpteen times that he gets outpaced over a mile, and is usually found running on at the finish. He is tried as a stayer for the first time tonight, and I would suggest that in a race that may be run at a moderate pace, the selection may be held up in rear before being sent on around the home turn to make a late challenge. Robert Winston takes the ride and the price looks fair. Leyte Gulf is the danger.
Best Recommendation:
5.50 Wolves Proud Linus, 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Bet 365 or other guaranteed price bookmaker)
6.50 Wolves City Hustler, 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed)
Thursday November 21st
Another fantastic day yesterday with an easy winner in Khaniverous who was hammered in the betting, and second in Vaultage, and the each-way double landed. We were close to a monther payout but let us not get too greedy.
In the 4.00 at Kempton, Kieren Fallon takes the ride on Luca Cumani's Fantastic Cuix, who has to overcome the outside draw. However, after banging her head on the stalls on her debut, she finished her race off really well when she got the hanf of things in what was a really good maiden. Spencer looked after the filly and she was not unduly knocked about, but she made up plenty of ground in the latter stages and looks value against inexperienced newcomers at 5/1, even though she has already been well supported.
Richard Hannon's Leaving Alone gets the call in the 4.30. She made a very eye catching debut at Salisbury, not knocked about at all and making up loads of ground on the unfavoured part of the track under hands and heels. She is bred for artificial surfaces and the best draw combined with the step up to a mile should see her go close to winning this. She gets the vote over Marco Botti's Inner Angel, who I think also has a better chance than the Stoute horse.
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Best Recommendation:
4.00 Kempton Fantastic Cuix, 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
4.30 Kempton Leaving Alone, 4pts win @ 7/2 (Stan James, guaranteed)
1pt each-way double @ 4/1, 10/3 (Paddy Power, both guaranteed)
In the 4.00 at Kempton, Kieren Fallon takes the ride on Luca Cumani's Fantastic Cuix, who has to overcome the outside draw. However, after banging her head on the stalls on her debut, she finished her race off really well when she got the hanf of things in what was a really good maiden. Spencer looked after the filly and she was not unduly knocked about, but she made up plenty of ground in the latter stages and looks value against inexperienced newcomers at 5/1, even though she has already been well supported.
Richard Hannon's Leaving Alone gets the call in the 4.30. She made a very eye catching debut at Salisbury, not knocked about at all and making up loads of ground on the unfavoured part of the track under hands and heels. She is bred for artificial surfaces and the best draw combined with the step up to a mile should see her go close to winning this. She gets the vote over Marco Botti's Inner Angel, who I think also has a better chance than the Stoute horse.
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Best Recommendation:
4.00 Kempton Fantastic Cuix, 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
4.30 Kempton Leaving Alone, 4pts win @ 7/2 (Stan James, guaranteed)
1pt each-way double @ 4/1, 10/3 (Paddy Power, both guaranteed)
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Wednesday November 18th
Two interesting horses today, both at the evening meeting at Kempton.
In-form Jim Boyle runs Khaniverous in the first division of the 7f maiden at 7.50pm. The selection is a very nicely bred son of Dubai Destination. He is physically imposing, and looked a picture on his first two runs when well backed but outpaced over 5f at Lingfield on turf and on the all weather here. He made good late headway on his second start and the step up to seven furlongs looks ideal for him, as does the nice long break he has had - he had some growing to do to fill that frame and we could see a much better horse tonight. He has a good draw in stall eight. He was entered in a seller at Southwell yesterday but I'm happy enough to disregard that as he was withdrawn early due to a "pricked foot" and maybe connections were planning having a few quid on but couldn't get their price. This looks weak bar the unraced favourite and if the selection delivers on his early promise he will win here.
Vaultage represents Ed Dunlop in division II of the maiden and she is also drawn well in stall ten. She was an expensive purchase and is very well bred. She travelled very well on debut in a hot Newmarket maiden before fading coming into the dip on ground which was probably too soft for her. Being US-bred, she should enjoy this artificial surface much more and if she comes on for that run at all she should be in with a good chance of winning this. Hayley Turner rides.
Best Recommendation:
7.50 Kempton Khaniverous, 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, guaranteed) WON
8.20 Kempton Vaultage, 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, guaranteed) 2ND
1pt each-way double with Stan James @ 7/1, 9/2 - both prices will be guaranteed. WINNING E/W DOUBLE
In-form Jim Boyle runs Khaniverous in the first division of the 7f maiden at 7.50pm. The selection is a very nicely bred son of Dubai Destination. He is physically imposing, and looked a picture on his first two runs when well backed but outpaced over 5f at Lingfield on turf and on the all weather here. He made good late headway on his second start and the step up to seven furlongs looks ideal for him, as does the nice long break he has had - he had some growing to do to fill that frame and we could see a much better horse tonight. He has a good draw in stall eight. He was entered in a seller at Southwell yesterday but I'm happy enough to disregard that as he was withdrawn early due to a "pricked foot" and maybe connections were planning having a few quid on but couldn't get their price. This looks weak bar the unraced favourite and if the selection delivers on his early promise he will win here.
Vaultage represents Ed Dunlop in division II of the maiden and she is also drawn well in stall ten. She was an expensive purchase and is very well bred. She travelled very well on debut in a hot Newmarket maiden before fading coming into the dip on ground which was probably too soft for her. Being US-bred, she should enjoy this artificial surface much more and if she comes on for that run at all she should be in with a good chance of winning this. Hayley Turner rides.
Best Recommendation:
7.50 Kempton Khaniverous, 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, guaranteed) WON
8.20 Kempton Vaultage, 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, guaranteed) 2ND
1pt each-way double with Stan James @ 7/1, 9/2 - both prices will be guaranteed. WINNING E/W DOUBLE
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Tuesday November 17th
A fine day yesterday with a 10/1 winner and 15/2 each-way placed shot.
Two bets for today. In the Southwell maiden, it appears that the price difference between favourite Solicitor and second favourite Dandarrell is more based on pedigree and trainer rather than what they acheived first time out. I can't see much difference in the two performances and I thought Dandarrell stuck on really well over a trip which looked on the sharp side for him. At 5/1, he represents strong each-way value.
Reg Hollinshead does well here and his Taeping looks better than a 56 rated handicapper for his nursery debut. He looks like the type of galloper to improve for this surface for a trainer who does well here. Again, he represents each-way value at around 6/1.
Best Recommendation:
1.20 Southwell Dandarrell, 3pts each-way @ 5/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed) E/W 2nd
1.50 Southwell Taeping, 3pts each-way @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, William Hill, Guaranteed) E/W 3rd
Two bets for today. In the Southwell maiden, it appears that the price difference between favourite Solicitor and second favourite Dandarrell is more based on pedigree and trainer rather than what they acheived first time out. I can't see much difference in the two performances and I thought Dandarrell stuck on really well over a trip which looked on the sharp side for him. At 5/1, he represents strong each-way value.
Reg Hollinshead does well here and his Taeping looks better than a 56 rated handicapper for his nursery debut. He looks like the type of galloper to improve for this surface for a trainer who does well here. Again, he represents each-way value at around 6/1.
Best Recommendation:
1.20 Southwell Dandarrell, 3pts each-way @ 5/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed) E/W 2nd
1.50 Southwell Taeping, 3pts each-way @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, William Hill, Guaranteed) E/W 3rd
Monday November 16th
Two for today.
Spice Run represents a trainer who has made a habit of doing well with the cast offs of others. Ex-Clive Cox Spice Run made her debut as a 5yo last year and has clearly been difficult to train, but the fact that she was sent off just 12/1 for a hot maiden on her first start suggests there is plenty of ability there. On her debut for Liddiard in September, she travelled easily on the pace in a good maiden before fading late on, and she shaped as if she might just be a sprinter in the making. She has been alloted a mark of 66 but it could be a decent piece of placing for Liddiard to send her to this weak maiden. There are plenty of poor performers in here and the favourite represents a yard who have been performing poorly all year. The second favourite has the best recent form in the book but is drawn in stall 12, and the rest look like mid-60's types at best. I think a RPR of 75 will win this and Spice Run looks the likliest improver from what I can see.
Augustus John should improve for his recent reappearance. He was noted travelling well before seeming to blow up in the last two furlongs, and the combination of a weaker race, a 4lb drop in the handicap, and extra fitness might be enough to see him get his head in front. He does not win often but looks safe place material, and with a couple of prominent racers bound to set a nice tempo to this, he can pick them up late for a second career win.
Best Recommendation:
2.30 Wolves Spice Run 3pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) won
3.30 Wolves Augustus John 2pts each-way @ 15/2 (William Hill, Coral - price guaranteed) E/W 3rd
Spice Run represents a trainer who has made a habit of doing well with the cast offs of others. Ex-Clive Cox Spice Run made her debut as a 5yo last year and has clearly been difficult to train, but the fact that she was sent off just 12/1 for a hot maiden on her first start suggests there is plenty of ability there. On her debut for Liddiard in September, she travelled easily on the pace in a good maiden before fading late on, and she shaped as if she might just be a sprinter in the making. She has been alloted a mark of 66 but it could be a decent piece of placing for Liddiard to send her to this weak maiden. There are plenty of poor performers in here and the favourite represents a yard who have been performing poorly all year. The second favourite has the best recent form in the book but is drawn in stall 12, and the rest look like mid-60's types at best. I think a RPR of 75 will win this and Spice Run looks the likliest improver from what I can see.
Augustus John should improve for his recent reappearance. He was noted travelling well before seeming to blow up in the last two furlongs, and the combination of a weaker race, a 4lb drop in the handicap, and extra fitness might be enough to see him get his head in front. He does not win often but looks safe place material, and with a couple of prominent racers bound to set a nice tempo to this, he can pick them up late for a second career win.
Best Recommendation:
2.30 Wolves Spice Run 3pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) won
3.30 Wolves Augustus John 2pts each-way @ 15/2 (William Hill, Coral - price guaranteed) E/W 3rd
Saturday November 14th (II)
A nice 25/1 each-way third last night and a 20/1 each-way second this morning. Good results but we have not hit the jackpot this week and you guys can see what I mean that value betting takes patience and we won't always bang in loads of big priced winners like last week. The selection process does not change, though, so once you get the prices and stick to the correct staking, we'll give you the selections that will keep you ahead over time.
One for this afternoon on a tricky day, with a possible second bet this evening.
The Pipe stable don't send horses to races like the Paddy Power Gold Cup willy nilly, and in the absence of a major strong form candidate in today's big race I'm happy to take a chance on the lightly raced I'm So Lucky being equal to the task. He looks well handicapped on a mark of 139 and carries a light weight of 10-4 on his back for this two and a half mile test. The stable made a habit out of plundering these Saturday contests with big priced horses in the last two seasons, and it interests me that there are a few from the yard Pipe could have aimed at this race, but he sends I'm So Lucky. He must think ha has some sort of chance, and if he handles the ground and gets a clear round in, I think he rates excellent each-way value at 33/1.
Marco Botti runs Mercoliano in the extended nine furlong contest at Wolverhampton at 7.50pm, a contest the trainer won last year with Gitano Hernando. He is a 9/1 shot with Paddy Power, which looks a touch big given the promise of his first run behind a couple of mid 70 types on his debut at this track over the extended mile. He was green when asked to quicken and when he finally did start to run on, he was trapped behind his three rivals. He will have come on a bundle for that run and will appreciate the extra furlong tonight, as well as the 3lb Andrea Atzeni takes off his back. There are a couple of Godolphin newcomers making the market here, along with a horse who no longer looks to be improving, and given that the selection looked like such a fine physical specimen on his debut, I'm going to have a nice bet on him to improve tonight and go close to winning.
Best Recommendation:
7.50 Wolves Mercaliano, 3pts each-way @ 9/1 (Paddy Power, guaranteed)
2.35 Cheltenham I'm So Lucky, 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
One for this afternoon on a tricky day, with a possible second bet this evening.
The Pipe stable don't send horses to races like the Paddy Power Gold Cup willy nilly, and in the absence of a major strong form candidate in today's big race I'm happy to take a chance on the lightly raced I'm So Lucky being equal to the task. He looks well handicapped on a mark of 139 and carries a light weight of 10-4 on his back for this two and a half mile test. The stable made a habit out of plundering these Saturday contests with big priced horses in the last two seasons, and it interests me that there are a few from the yard Pipe could have aimed at this race, but he sends I'm So Lucky. He must think ha has some sort of chance, and if he handles the ground and gets a clear round in, I think he rates excellent each-way value at 33/1.
Marco Botti runs Mercoliano in the extended nine furlong contest at Wolverhampton at 7.50pm, a contest the trainer won last year with Gitano Hernando. He is a 9/1 shot with Paddy Power, which looks a touch big given the promise of his first run behind a couple of mid 70 types on his debut at this track over the extended mile. He was green when asked to quicken and when he finally did start to run on, he was trapped behind his three rivals. He will have come on a bundle for that run and will appreciate the extra furlong tonight, as well as the 3lb Andrea Atzeni takes off his back. There are a couple of Godolphin newcomers making the market here, along with a horse who no longer looks to be improving, and given that the selection looked like such a fine physical specimen on his debut, I'm going to have a nice bet on him to improve tonight and go close to winning.
Best Recommendation:
7.50 Wolves Mercaliano, 3pts each-way @ 9/1 (Paddy Power, guaranteed)
2.35 Cheltenham I'm So Lucky, 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Saturday November 14th
Amanda Perrett runs Street Entertainer in the first at Lingfield. The selection made a very eye catching debut in a hot Newbury maiden, still travelling well at the 2f pole, and if he comes on for that should go close in this weak event. Take the early 20/1 as we think it will go off shorter.
Best Recommendation:
12.00 Lingfield Street Entertainer, 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) E/W 2nd
Best Recommendation:
12.00 Lingfield Street Entertainer, 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) E/W 2nd
Friday November 13th
Three bets tonight:
Aspirational steps back in trip after showing up well in the fog at Catterick. She is a big price but is drawn well for a prominent racer and she represents a team who do well here.
In the same race Great Bounder's form looks very strong and if he can travel better this time he should be the main danger.
Bountiful Bay is too big a price based on her run last time out. He has drifted because of his draw but we think if he can tuck in, he could come late and have a say in the finish.
Best Recommendation:
5.50 Wolves Aspirational, 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) E/W 3rd
5.50 Wolves Great Bounder, 3pts win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) 2nd
6.20 Wolves Bountiful Bay 2pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
Aspirational steps back in trip after showing up well in the fog at Catterick. She is a big price but is drawn well for a prominent racer and she represents a team who do well here.
In the same race Great Bounder's form looks very strong and if he can travel better this time he should be the main danger.
Bountiful Bay is too big a price based on her run last time out. He has drifted because of his draw but we think if he can tuck in, he could come late and have a say in the finish.
Best Recommendation:
5.50 Wolves Aspirational, 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) E/W 3rd
5.50 Wolves Great Bounder, 3pts win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) 2nd
6.20 Wolves Bountiful Bay 2pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
Thursday November 12th
One for tonight.
Thunderball represents a stable who have been in fine for in recent weeks and have had winners at this course as well as the other all weather tracks recently. The selection looks a slowly progressive sort on this surface with his last two runs at Kempton behind Poyle Meg and Burgundy Ice reading particularly well. Many of this field look to be exposed and the exception Naseehah has been done no favours by the handicapper - he could be better than a mark of 85 but he has to give Thunderball 5lbs and the selection's experience may give him the upper hand on this occasion.
Best Recommendation:
6.20 Wolves Thunderball 3pts win @ 7.6 (Betfair)
Thunderball represents a stable who have been in fine for in recent weeks and have had winners at this course as well as the other all weather tracks recently. The selection looks a slowly progressive sort on this surface with his last two runs at Kempton behind Poyle Meg and Burgundy Ice reading particularly well. Many of this field look to be exposed and the exception Naseehah has been done no favours by the handicapper - he could be better than a mark of 85 but he has to give Thunderball 5lbs and the selection's experience may give him the upper hand on this occasion.
Best Recommendation:
6.20 Wolves Thunderball 3pts win @ 7.6 (Betfair)
Wednesday November 11th
After a no bets day yesterday, we have two for this afternoon and another for this evening at 5.30pm.
Kummel Excess ran really well in a decent Kempton maiden last time out when suffering a wide trip and showing good speed only to fade at the furlong pole. Her dam was very effective on this surface and stepped back to the minimum trip today she can go close at generous odds.
Amno Dancer has been well backed early. His trainer picked up a similar event here a couple of weeks or so ago, with Imjin River who we supported. Amno Dancer is by the same sire and boasts a similar profile, he has been dropped to a fair mark and can get off the mark today having been brought along gradually up until now.
Best Recommendation:
1.00 Southwell Kummel Excess 3pts win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
2.00 Southwell Amno Dancer 4pts win @ 6/1 (Totesport)
Kummel Excess ran really well in a decent Kempton maiden last time out when suffering a wide trip and showing good speed only to fade at the furlong pole. Her dam was very effective on this surface and stepped back to the minimum trip today she can go close at generous odds.
Amno Dancer has been well backed early. His trainer picked up a similar event here a couple of weeks or so ago, with Imjin River who we supported. Amno Dancer is by the same sire and boasts a similar profile, he has been dropped to a fair mark and can get off the mark today having been brought along gradually up until now.
Best Recommendation:
1.00 Southwell Kummel Excess 3pts win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
2.00 Southwell Amno Dancer 4pts win @ 6/1 (Totesport)
Saturday November 7th
Well it has been a smashing week and I hope it helps you all with the Christmas shopping to some extent. Our last four bets featured a 7/1 winning max, a 10/1 winner, an 11/1 winner, and a 20/1 each-way third. Happy days and we've been raking it in this week.
One bet today, and tomorrow will be a day off. There is a small chance I might put something up for the Breeders Cup tonight but it is unlikely. Details will be released by 5.30pm either way.
Toto Skyllachy runs in the first race of the day, the 11.55am at Doncaster. I have been following him for quite a while as you know and he appears to have run back into form. Seven furlongs and soft ground are his ideal conditions in my opinion, and that is exactly what he gets today. He ran well when strongly supported last time out but had a very poor draw at Catterick and we couldn't see what happened him in the fog, although he did get hampered near the finish when staying on. This galloping track will suit much better and the capeable Jack Dean takes the ride. He is well drawn and looks overpriced at 16/1.
Best Recommendation:
11.55 Doncaster Toto Skyllachy, 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
One bet today, and tomorrow will be a day off. There is a small chance I might put something up for the Breeders Cup tonight but it is unlikely. Details will be released by 5.30pm either way.
Toto Skyllachy runs in the first race of the day, the 11.55am at Doncaster. I have been following him for quite a while as you know and he appears to have run back into form. Seven furlongs and soft ground are his ideal conditions in my opinion, and that is exactly what he gets today. He ran well when strongly supported last time out but had a very poor draw at Catterick and we couldn't see what happened him in the fog, although he did get hampered near the finish when staying on. This galloping track will suit much better and the capeable Jack Dean takes the ride. He is well drawn and looks overpriced at 16/1.
Best Recommendation:
11.55 Doncaster Toto Skyllachy, 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Friday, November 6, 2009
November 6th evening
Another good day with Argentine finishing third at Southwell landing our each-way support at big odds.
Steve Drowne travels on to Wolves tonight and he takes the ride on Sea Of Heartbreak in the 7f maiden at 7.20pm. The selection made her debut two weeks ago is a very good Newbury maiden and, drawn widest of all and racing on what seemed to be the unfavoured part of the track, she travelled up well for the first six furlongs before weakening out of contention. Looking at that race, I think she hated the soft ground and I can see much better coming from her on polytrack tonight. This race looks an open one, but I think the favourite is a bit short on what he has acheived thus far and at 10/1, Seas Of Heartbreak is the one to be on each-way.
Best Recommendation:
7.20 Wolves Sea Of Heartbreak, 2pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) won
@ 11/1
Steve Drowne travels on to Wolves tonight and he takes the ride on Sea Of Heartbreak in the 7f maiden at 7.20pm. The selection made her debut two weeks ago is a very good Newbury maiden and, drawn widest of all and racing on what seemed to be the unfavoured part of the track, she travelled up well for the first six furlongs before weakening out of contention. Looking at that race, I think she hated the soft ground and I can see much better coming from her on polytrack tonight. This race looks an open one, but I think the favourite is a bit short on what he has acheived thus far and at 10/1, Seas Of Heartbreak is the one to be on each-way.
Best Recommendation:
7.20 Wolves Sea Of Heartbreak, 2pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) won
@ 11/1
November 6th afternoon
Another fine day yesterday with Dubai Diva winning easily at 10/1. That is 78pts profit in two days which is enough to soothe even the harshest of losing runs in the unlikely event that that should occur.
For those of you new to our service, I will also take time to point out that you should not get carried away with recent winnings. As a value tipping service, we consistently make profits over time - all but one month this year have been well in profit - but that means backing losers too! It is impossible to select 7/1 and 10/1 winners every day, but with the right staking at the right prices, we will make money, and that's what you're membership is for after all.
One for this afternoon and a possible evening bet, details at 5.30pm.
Argentine runs in the 2.30 at Southwell and is a horse I have followed all year. He has really improved this year and his trainer wanted to aim him at some of the bigger flat handicaps before he lost his form mid summer. He was given a nice break and reappeared with an encouraging run at Pontefract two weeks ago. He was in with a shout when bumped by another horse a furlong out and did not recover from there. If he has come on for that run, he can run a lot better than his 20/1 quote suggests in a race that looks pretty average. He is a course and distance winner, is drawn well, and Steve Drowne takes the ride.
Best Recommendation:
2.30 Southwell Argentine, 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) placed
For those of you new to our service, I will also take time to point out that you should not get carried away with recent winnings. As a value tipping service, we consistently make profits over time - all but one month this year have been well in profit - but that means backing losers too! It is impossible to select 7/1 and 10/1 winners every day, but with the right staking at the right prices, we will make money, and that's what you're membership is for after all.
One for this afternoon and a possible evening bet, details at 5.30pm.
Argentine runs in the 2.30 at Southwell and is a horse I have followed all year. He has really improved this year and his trainer wanted to aim him at some of the bigger flat handicaps before he lost his form mid summer. He was given a nice break and reappeared with an encouraging run at Pontefract two weeks ago. He was in with a shout when bumped by another horse a furlong out and did not recover from there. If he has come on for that run, he can run a lot better than his 20/1 quote suggests in a race that looks pretty average. He is a course and distance winner, is drawn well, and Steve Drowne takes the ride.
Best Recommendation:
2.30 Southwell Argentine, 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) placed
November 5th
A fantastic day for us yesterday with yet another big priced maximum bet doing the business. Forest Crown went off 7/1 and of course you'll get paid the S.P. if you backed guaranteed odds. It makes a big difference with a maximum bet and that is the reason I always stress getting a guaranteed price where relevant.
One bet for today.
Dubai Diva looks excellent value in the 4.00pm staying handicap at Lingfield, even though Hugh Taylor has already let the cat out of the bag. She steps up in trip today and given her stamina laden pedigree I expect her to improve leaps and bounds for the extreme distance. She is by Dubai Destination whose progeny have an excellent record on artificial surfaces, and she showed some decent promise on unsuitable ground at Catterick last time, staying on when the winner had flown over 12f. Trainer and jockey combo had a winner the other day and this rates another confident bet.
Best Recommendation:
4.00 Lingfield Dubai Diva, 3pts each-way @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed) won @ 10/1
One bet for today.
Dubai Diva looks excellent value in the 4.00pm staying handicap at Lingfield, even though Hugh Taylor has already let the cat out of the bag. She steps up in trip today and given her stamina laden pedigree I expect her to improve leaps and bounds for the extreme distance. She is by Dubai Destination whose progeny have an excellent record on artificial surfaces, and she showed some decent promise on unsuitable ground at Catterick last time, staying on when the winner had flown over 12f. Trainer and jockey combo had a winner the other day and this rates another confident bet.
Best Recommendation:
4.00 Lingfield Dubai Diva, 3pts each-way @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed) won @ 10/1
November 4th - evening
It has been a disappointing Monday and Tuesday, and our first bet today ran a bit of a nothing race. The last two months have been very kind to us, however, and we expect to get back on track tonight with our first maximum bet for a couple of weeks.
The 6.20 6f maiden at Kempton looks an interesting contest in that the odds-on favourite Mutafajer looks a short price on what he has acheived thus far. Godolphin's horses generally improve for their first run, and while Mutafajer did, he still only posted a rating in the mid 70's in doing so, and does not looks to be a world beater. Richard Hills takes this as his only ride on the card but I make the selection more of a 7/4 shot than 8/11 here and there is one in here I will confidently take him on with.
Forest Crown represents a stable who do really well here and have been in fine form in the last months of the season (16/1 maiden 3rd at Nottingham with their only other runner today). She is very well bred and the form of her debut run has worked out nicely. Having been off from June to October we can conclude that there was some sort of setback, but her reappearance run was full of promise. She drifted markedly in the betting having been on her toes in the paddock, and under a forgiving ride ran on well to finish fourth beaten 1 1/2 lengths over 5f, doing all her best work at the finish. If she strips fitter today and behaves in the preliminaries, she should improve quite a bit for the step up to six furlongs and her 5lb filies allowance should see her beat the favourite in my book. Lago Indiano's debut run was flagged up everywhere but I think Beckett's filly should have her measure also. This is a maximum confidence each-way selection.
Best Recommendation:
6.20 Kempton Forest Crown, 5pts each-way @ 11/2 (Stan James - guaranteed - Maximum Bet) won @ 7/1 - yet another big priced winning maximum bet!
The 6.20 6f maiden at Kempton looks an interesting contest in that the odds-on favourite Mutafajer looks a short price on what he has acheived thus far. Godolphin's horses generally improve for their first run, and while Mutafajer did, he still only posted a rating in the mid 70's in doing so, and does not looks to be a world beater. Richard Hills takes this as his only ride on the card but I make the selection more of a 7/4 shot than 8/11 here and there is one in here I will confidently take him on with.
Forest Crown represents a stable who do really well here and have been in fine form in the last months of the season (16/1 maiden 3rd at Nottingham with their only other runner today). She is very well bred and the form of her debut run has worked out nicely. Having been off from June to October we can conclude that there was some sort of setback, but her reappearance run was full of promise. She drifted markedly in the betting having been on her toes in the paddock, and under a forgiving ride ran on well to finish fourth beaten 1 1/2 lengths over 5f, doing all her best work at the finish. If she strips fitter today and behaves in the preliminaries, she should improve quite a bit for the step up to six furlongs and her 5lb filies allowance should see her beat the favourite in my book. Lago Indiano's debut run was flagged up everywhere but I think Beckett's filly should have her measure also. This is a maximum confidence each-way selection.
Best Recommendation:
6.20 Kempton Forest Crown, 5pts each-way @ 11/2 (Stan James - guaranteed - Maximum Bet) won @ 7/1 - yet another big priced winning maximum bet!
November 4th afternoon
One for this afternoon, possible second evening bet, details 5.30pm.
Soul Sista is drawn 17 of 17 for the Nottingham sprint at 2.50, which having watched the first two races might give her an edge. She enjoys soft ground and represents a stable whose horses have been running well of late. A small each-way is the call.
2.50 Nottingham Soul Sista 2pts each-way @ 11/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Soul Sista is drawn 17 of 17 for the Nottingham sprint at 2.50, which having watched the first two races might give her an edge. She enjoys soft ground and represents a stable whose horses have been running well of late. A small each-way is the call.
2.50 Nottingham Soul Sista 2pts each-way @ 11/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
November 3rd
Two bets this afternoon.
Absa Lutte has looked a very progressive mare on her last two starts, and having been claimed by Gay Kelleway, makes her debut for the stable in a Catterick claimer today. It is hard to know why she didn't run at Kempton today, but the stable may have had an agreement not to take on Ask Jenny in the Kempton race. I don't think heavy ground will be a burden to her and I think she could win again today if in the same form. She is unproven in the conditions and I think she will drift, so get a guaranteed price.
Chosen Son looks a clear form pick in Kempton's 2.50 handicap. He represents a yard who do really well at this track, William Buick takes the ride and he should take the beating.
Best Recommendation:
2.40 Catterick Absa Lutte, 3pts win @ 3/1 (Generally, get guaranteed!) 2nd
2.50 Kempton Chosen Son, 4pts win @ 3/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Absa Lutte has looked a very progressive mare on her last two starts, and having been claimed by Gay Kelleway, makes her debut for the stable in a Catterick claimer today. It is hard to know why she didn't run at Kempton today, but the stable may have had an agreement not to take on Ask Jenny in the Kempton race. I don't think heavy ground will be a burden to her and I think she could win again today if in the same form. She is unproven in the conditions and I think she will drift, so get a guaranteed price.
Chosen Son looks a clear form pick in Kempton's 2.50 handicap. He represents a yard who do really well at this track, William Buick takes the ride and he should take the beating.
Best Recommendation:
2.40 Catterick Absa Lutte, 3pts win @ 3/1 (Generally, get guaranteed!) 2nd
2.50 Kempton Chosen Son, 4pts win @ 3/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
November 2nd
Two for today.
Tesslam looks excellent value at 2/1 in the opener and indeed we expect it might be backed. He almost got his head in front last time out when well backed on his second start but just got done on the line, in windy conditions which made it hard work for the 2yo's. Today's race will pan out much better for him and the Godolphin horse makes the price for us. He'll have to be good to beat Tesslam and the advice is to grab the 2/1.
Tuppenny Piece looks worth a small bet in the 4.50 at Wolves. He steps up in trip having done all his best work at the finish last time out, and has an in-form 7lb claimer to ease his burden as well as an 8lb weight for age allowance. The stable are in fair form and 9/1 looks a big price.
Best Recommendations:
2.05 Wolves Tesslam, 5pts win @ 2/1 (Generally, get guaranteed!)
4.50 Wolves Tuppenny Piece, 2pts win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Tesslam looks excellent value at 2/1 in the opener and indeed we expect it might be backed. He almost got his head in front last time out when well backed on his second start but just got done on the line, in windy conditions which made it hard work for the 2yo's. Today's race will pan out much better for him and the Godolphin horse makes the price for us. He'll have to be good to beat Tesslam and the advice is to grab the 2/1.
Tuppenny Piece looks worth a small bet in the 4.50 at Wolves. He steps up in trip having done all his best work at the finish last time out, and has an in-form 7lb claimer to ease his burden as well as an 8lb weight for age allowance. The stable are in fair form and 9/1 looks a big price.
Best Recommendations:
2.05 Wolves Tesslam, 5pts win @ 2/1 (Generally, get guaranteed!)
4.50 Wolves Tuppenny Piece, 2pts win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
October 31st evening
Another good winner today and you will have been paid at 6/4 since you got the guaranteed price.
Two for this evening.
Sonhador was well supported last time out but suffered a poor trip and could not get his head in front at the finish. He will stay six furlongs no problem and this is only his second start in a handicap on the all weather. He looks capable of winning a poor race like this and 7/2 looks like good value against some poor and exposed horses.
Strathcal represents Hughie Morrison. I cannot for the life of me see why he is priced up the outsider of four in the staying handicap. He boasts some decent form in good staying handicaps and with the stable in very good form I feel he is ready for a big run. If he improves even a little for the return to the all weather (has acted well on the surface before) he is well in there with a shout and 5/1 is too big.
Best Recommendation:
5.05 Kempton Sonhador, 4pts win @ 10/3 (Generally, get guaranteed) won @ 4/1
6.05 Kempton Strathcal, 2pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Two for this evening.
Sonhador was well supported last time out but suffered a poor trip and could not get his head in front at the finish. He will stay six furlongs no problem and this is only his second start in a handicap on the all weather. He looks capable of winning a poor race like this and 7/2 looks like good value against some poor and exposed horses.
Strathcal represents Hughie Morrison. I cannot for the life of me see why he is priced up the outsider of four in the staying handicap. He boasts some decent form in good staying handicaps and with the stable in very good form I feel he is ready for a big run. If he improves even a little for the return to the all weather (has acted well on the surface before) he is well in there with a shout and 5/1 is too big.
Best Recommendation:
5.05 Kempton Sonhador, 4pts win @ 10/3 (Generally, get guaranteed) won @ 4/1
6.05 Kempton Strathcal, 2pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
October 31st afternoon
A profitable week again with three of our biggest bets hitting the targets.
One for this afternoon. You're The Top represents Nicky Henderson and is ridden by Tony McCoy. This fella really caught my eye last backend when winning a couple of decent hurdles, and he appears to be very progressive and on his way to better things. I can't believe he is 6/5 in this race and a small win bet looks the call. He will come on for the run but should be good enough to beat William Hogarth. Two more possible bets tonight, details at 5.00pm.
Best Recommendation:
2.25 Ascot, You're The Top 4pts win @ 6/5 (Bet 365) won @ 6/4
One for this afternoon. You're The Top represents Nicky Henderson and is ridden by Tony McCoy. This fella really caught my eye last backend when winning a couple of decent hurdles, and he appears to be very progressive and on his way to better things. I can't believe he is 6/5 in this race and a small win bet looks the call. He will come on for the run but should be good enough to beat William Hogarth. Two more possible bets tonight, details at 5.00pm.
Best Recommendation:
2.25 Ascot, You're The Top 4pts win @ 6/5 (Bet 365) won @ 6/4
October 29th
A very busy evening for us.
Kirsty's Lad has a really good record at Wolverhampton and his record at the course in the month of October reads: 1,1. He has never run well on turf with the word "firm" in description so I was heartened by a fair performance last time out on ground he will not let himself down on, he stayed on well enough at the finish to suggest he is in good heart. He is also down to an attractive mark, and up against some bad horses can run into a place at least tonight.
Orpenindeed has been dropped 2lb by the handicapper, and Andrea Atzeni takes off another 3lb tonight in place of Seb Sanders. The selection laid it down to Beauchamp Viceroy (a really good winner since) over seven furlongs and faded near the finish. The second and fifth from that claimer have won since in better races and the drop in trip should see the selection get his head in front again here.
Flaxen Lake represents a trainer who does well here with his sprinters. I just thought he was given an unusual ride last time (I could have sworn the jockey took a pull in the home straight?!) on his third run. He had already run to an RPR of 68, so if they were looking for that sort of mark (was awarded an OR of 69) they, they must think he is better than that, and the early speed he showed last time suggests he might be. Drawn two and with the excellent Graham Gibbons on board, he is good value at the prices.
Labisa represents Hughie Morrison and Steve Drowne. She goes well fresh, and it is interesting she is persevered with. She boasts some decent polytrack for and it interests me that Drowne hangs about for the ride in what is otherwise a poor contest. She can race prominently and has pulled hard, so I actually hope Drowne sends her on in a race which may be run at a false pace.
Best Recommendations:
6.20 Wolverhampton Kirsty's Lad, 1pt win @ Betfair SP, 3pts place @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)
7.50 Wolverhampton Orpenindeed, 4pts win @ 9/2 (Stan James, guaranteed) won
8.20 Wolverhampton Flaxen Lake, 2pts win @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
9.20 Wolverhampton Labisa, 2pts win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Kirsty's Lad has a really good record at Wolverhampton and his record at the course in the month of October reads: 1,1. He has never run well on turf with the word "firm" in description so I was heartened by a fair performance last time out on ground he will not let himself down on, he stayed on well enough at the finish to suggest he is in good heart. He is also down to an attractive mark, and up against some bad horses can run into a place at least tonight.
Orpenindeed has been dropped 2lb by the handicapper, and Andrea Atzeni takes off another 3lb tonight in place of Seb Sanders. The selection laid it down to Beauchamp Viceroy (a really good winner since) over seven furlongs and faded near the finish. The second and fifth from that claimer have won since in better races and the drop in trip should see the selection get his head in front again here.
Flaxen Lake represents a trainer who does well here with his sprinters. I just thought he was given an unusual ride last time (I could have sworn the jockey took a pull in the home straight?!) on his third run. He had already run to an RPR of 68, so if they were looking for that sort of mark (was awarded an OR of 69) they, they must think he is better than that, and the early speed he showed last time suggests he might be. Drawn two and with the excellent Graham Gibbons on board, he is good value at the prices.
Labisa represents Hughie Morrison and Steve Drowne. She goes well fresh, and it is interesting she is persevered with. She boasts some decent polytrack for and it interests me that Drowne hangs about for the ride in what is otherwise a poor contest. She can race prominently and has pulled hard, so I actually hope Drowne sends her on in a race which may be run at a false pace.
Best Recommendations:
6.20 Wolverhampton Kirsty's Lad, 1pt win @ Betfair SP, 3pts place @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)
7.50 Wolverhampton Orpenindeed, 4pts win @ 9/2 (Stan James, guaranteed) won
8.20 Wolverhampton Flaxen Lake, 2pts win @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
9.20 Wolverhampton Labisa, 2pts win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
October 28th
One for tonight.
Cayman Fox runs off her correct mark tonight and the 7lb apprentice who rode her last time in a better race will know a little more about the horse tonight. She is in much better form than Almaty Express and has only the draw to overcome in my book. Stall 8 is not insurmountable and 11/4 is a big price with Bet 365.
Best Recommendation:
4.30 Wolves Cayman Fox, 5pts win @ 11/4 (Bet 365, guaranteed) 2nd
Cayman Fox runs off her correct mark tonight and the 7lb apprentice who rode her last time in a better race will know a little more about the horse tonight. She is in much better form than Almaty Express and has only the draw to overcome in my book. Stall 8 is not insurmountable and 11/4 is a big price with Bet 365.
Best Recommendation:
4.30 Wolves Cayman Fox, 5pts win @ 11/4 (Bet 365, guaranteed) 2nd
October 27th
Three bets today.
Mark Tompkins runs Imjin River in the 6f Southwell nursery. The selection ran a seriously good race last time in a hot Leicester maiden, travelling well without any cover before fading out of contention one furlong out over 7f. He is bred for 6f on artificial surfaces and off a mark of 65 today looks well handicapped on the visual impression he created last time. He has progressed with each run and looks ready to win today for a stable who have done well here of late.
I have waited quite a while for Toto Skyllachy to find some form and get 7f on soft ground, and he gets it today at Catterick. His run at Kempton last time out was impressive and that looks like a stronger contest that todays. He has a bad draw to overcome but Frederick Tylicki takes a handy 3lb off and I feel he has every chance.
The same stable run Sergeant Pink in the 3.30pm staying handicap. The form of his last race has worked out really well, he has been waiting for soft ground all year, and he looks well handicapped based on his last run. It is interesting that both Toto Skyllachy and Sergeant Pink were declared non runners last week and it could be that the stable are eyeing a quick double.
Best Recommendation:
1.50 Southwell Imjin River, 4pts win @ 11/2 (William Hill - guaranteed) won
3.00 Catterick Toto Skyllachy, 3pts win @ 13/2 (VC Bet, guaranteed)
3.30 Catterick Sergeant Pink, 3pts win @ 12/1 (Sporting Bet)
Mark Tompkins runs Imjin River in the 6f Southwell nursery. The selection ran a seriously good race last time in a hot Leicester maiden, travelling well without any cover before fading out of contention one furlong out over 7f. He is bred for 6f on artificial surfaces and off a mark of 65 today looks well handicapped on the visual impression he created last time. He has progressed with each run and looks ready to win today for a stable who have done well here of late.
I have waited quite a while for Toto Skyllachy to find some form and get 7f on soft ground, and he gets it today at Catterick. His run at Kempton last time out was impressive and that looks like a stronger contest that todays. He has a bad draw to overcome but Frederick Tylicki takes a handy 3lb off and I feel he has every chance.
The same stable run Sergeant Pink in the 3.30pm staying handicap. The form of his last race has worked out really well, he has been waiting for soft ground all year, and he looks well handicapped based on his last run. It is interesting that both Toto Skyllachy and Sergeant Pink were declared non runners last week and it could be that the stable are eyeing a quick double.
Best Recommendation:
1.50 Southwell Imjin River, 4pts win @ 11/2 (William Hill - guaranteed) won
3.00 Catterick Toto Skyllachy, 3pts win @ 13/2 (VC Bet, guaranteed)
3.30 Catterick Sergeant Pink, 3pts win @ 12/1 (Sporting Bet)
October 26th
A busy bank holiday Monday for us with some decent action in the U.K. and Ireland.
Bet of the day is Jonny Mudball in the 3.20 at Lingfield. A strapping son of Oasis Dream, this fella made a good debut at Windsor three weeks ago behind three horses with experience. He broke well, travelled well pulling hard without cover, and tacked across on his own to the far rail, fading a furlong out and running on again towards the finish having been tapped just once with the whip. I thought it was a really nice debut and I reckon seven furlongs is well with his reach on pedigree - Oasis Dream is getting more than just sprinters - while the Cadeaux Genereaux influence is no bad thing for artificial surfaces. This looks a weak enough race and I reckon 9/2 is big.
A more speculative selection is William Haggas' Dhan Dhana in the 3.20 at Kempton. The exchanges are suggesting she is not off a yard / has no ability / is around 80 times less likely to win here than the favourite, but I reckon that is codswallop. She is a beautifully bred daughter of Dubawi, who made a nice debut at Lingfield and was not pushed around at all by Kirsty Milczarek. She travelled well but was perhaps unlucky in not finding any gaps opening for her, and she may have been a bit green too. She was never hit with the whip and although she never remotely threatened, she looks a good sort physically and she has an entry in a £350,000 contest next April. She is drawn in stall 12 today which is a big positive, and if she is made more use of by Tony Culhane, she could run into a place at least.
Galatian looks the call in the Leicester maiden (2.30). He travelled really well at Newbury in a decent maiden before fading late on, and he looks as if he is progressing with each run. He is physically very impressive and will make a decent 3yo. A small each-way interest looks the call.
Best Recommendation:
2.30 Leicester Galatian, 2pts each-way @ 11/1 (Sporting Bet)
3.10 Kempton Dhan Dhana, 1pt each-way @ 50/1 (Stan James - guaranteed)
3.20 Lingfield Jonny Mudball, 5pts win @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes - guaranteed) won
Bet of the day is Jonny Mudball in the 3.20 at Lingfield. A strapping son of Oasis Dream, this fella made a good debut at Windsor three weeks ago behind three horses with experience. He broke well, travelled well pulling hard without cover, and tacked across on his own to the far rail, fading a furlong out and running on again towards the finish having been tapped just once with the whip. I thought it was a really nice debut and I reckon seven furlongs is well with his reach on pedigree - Oasis Dream is getting more than just sprinters - while the Cadeaux Genereaux influence is no bad thing for artificial surfaces. This looks a weak enough race and I reckon 9/2 is big.
A more speculative selection is William Haggas' Dhan Dhana in the 3.20 at Kempton. The exchanges are suggesting she is not off a yard / has no ability / is around 80 times less likely to win here than the favourite, but I reckon that is codswallop. She is a beautifully bred daughter of Dubawi, who made a nice debut at Lingfield and was not pushed around at all by Kirsty Milczarek. She travelled well but was perhaps unlucky in not finding any gaps opening for her, and she may have been a bit green too. She was never hit with the whip and although she never remotely threatened, she looks a good sort physically and she has an entry in a £350,000 contest next April. She is drawn in stall 12 today which is a big positive, and if she is made more use of by Tony Culhane, she could run into a place at least.
Galatian looks the call in the Leicester maiden (2.30). He travelled really well at Newbury in a decent maiden before fading late on, and he looks as if he is progressing with each run. He is physically very impressive and will make a decent 3yo. A small each-way interest looks the call.
Best Recommendation:
2.30 Leicester Galatian, 2pts each-way @ 11/1 (Sporting Bet)
3.10 Kempton Dhan Dhana, 1pt each-way @ 50/1 (Stan James - guaranteed)
3.20 Lingfield Jonny Mudball, 5pts win @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes - guaranteed) won
October 24th
One bet for this evening.
The form of the maiden in which Raif Beckett's St. Ignatius finished 8th on his debut has thrown up two next time out winners, both of which finished unplaced, a couple of improvers, and one or two who disappointed next time out. It is enough for me to take a chance on this seleciton, who was drawn 1 and showed good early speed to get on the lead, but was trapped out wide for much of the journey and faded at the furlong pole. Watching the replay, he didn't travel especially well or show anything flash, but I think that might be the way with Beckett 2yo's because I'm reminded of Oasis Dancer, who was group 1 entered and ran in a similar manner first time out. He won a valuable sales race at 66/1 on his third start. The selection holds an experience advantage over the favourite and many of the others just behind him in the market, and has acheived more than Plutocraft, who is my idea of the danger should the unraced hotpot fail to fire. Beckett's horses continue in fine form, the selection is drawn really well this time in stall 12, and Seb Sanders takes the ride.
Best Recommendation:
7.20 Kempton St. Ignatius; 3pts each-way @ 7/1 (Generally - make sure to get a guaranteed price!)
The form of the maiden in which Raif Beckett's St. Ignatius finished 8th on his debut has thrown up two next time out winners, both of which finished unplaced, a couple of improvers, and one or two who disappointed next time out. It is enough for me to take a chance on this seleciton, who was drawn 1 and showed good early speed to get on the lead, but was trapped out wide for much of the journey and faded at the furlong pole. Watching the replay, he didn't travel especially well or show anything flash, but I think that might be the way with Beckett 2yo's because I'm reminded of Oasis Dancer, who was group 1 entered and ran in a similar manner first time out. He won a valuable sales race at 66/1 on his third start. The selection holds an experience advantage over the favourite and many of the others just behind him in the market, and has acheived more than Plutocraft, who is my idea of the danger should the unraced hotpot fail to fire. Beckett's horses continue in fine form, the selection is drawn really well this time in stall 12, and Seb Sanders takes the ride.
Best Recommendation:
7.20 Kempton St. Ignatius; 3pts each-way @ 7/1 (Generally - make sure to get a guaranteed price!)
October 23rd
No bets this afternoon but we have one or two this evening which will be released at 5.30pm.
However we have a maximum bet today and the early price should be taken.
James Glover's string have been running into form and he sends Thunderstruck to contest the extended nine furlong handicap at 5.40pm. The selection has had a fairly mixed time of things since landing his maiden, to say the least, but the application of cheekpieces after a break last time saw him turn in a most interesting performance. He finished second in a ten furlong Lady Amateur riders event at Redcar, travelling well on the outer before making smooth headway to lead with a furlong left. He was on the bridle in front for a bit too long for my liking, and was pounced on by Tres Froide, who was rated 77 at the start of the year and looked totally rejuvenated for a stable finishing the season in good form. Effectively Thunderstruck gave 7lb to a winner who ran to 13lb above his handicap mark. I also feel Thunderstruck was in front too soon. The presence of Tropical Duke, who has been in fine form this year, in third bolsters the form and I reckon Thunderstruck is ready to win off his current mark. The field tonight contains quite a few hold up horses and it may be that Thunderstruck can utilise his good cruising speed to sit prominently from a good draw and pounce on the home turn. Chrish Catlin takes the ride. On the selection's only previous all-weather start, he posted a racing post rating of 75 over course and distance - he runs off 59 today and looks well up to winning an average contest if he gets first run on the favourite.
Best Recommendation:
5.40 Wolverhampton Thunderstruck, 5pts each-way @ 7/1 (Boylesports, VC Bet - price guaranteed - Maximum Bet) placed, 2nd in photo finish!
However we have a maximum bet today and the early price should be taken.
James Glover's string have been running into form and he sends Thunderstruck to contest the extended nine furlong handicap at 5.40pm. The selection has had a fairly mixed time of things since landing his maiden, to say the least, but the application of cheekpieces after a break last time saw him turn in a most interesting performance. He finished second in a ten furlong Lady Amateur riders event at Redcar, travelling well on the outer before making smooth headway to lead with a furlong left. He was on the bridle in front for a bit too long for my liking, and was pounced on by Tres Froide, who was rated 77 at the start of the year and looked totally rejuvenated for a stable finishing the season in good form. Effectively Thunderstruck gave 7lb to a winner who ran to 13lb above his handicap mark. I also feel Thunderstruck was in front too soon. The presence of Tropical Duke, who has been in fine form this year, in third bolsters the form and I reckon Thunderstruck is ready to win off his current mark. The field tonight contains quite a few hold up horses and it may be that Thunderstruck can utilise his good cruising speed to sit prominently from a good draw and pounce on the home turn. Chrish Catlin takes the ride. On the selection's only previous all-weather start, he posted a racing post rating of 75 over course and distance - he runs off 59 today and looks well up to winning an average contest if he gets first run on the favourite.
Best Recommendation:
5.40 Wolverhampton Thunderstruck, 5pts each-way @ 7/1 (Boylesports, VC Bet - price guaranteed - Maximum Bet) placed, 2nd in photo finish!
October 22nd
Just one for tonight.
La Fortunata is an out and out speedball who ran a nice race over course and distance last time out when just touched off in a similar event over course and distance last time out. This is a weak contest barring the selection and the favourite, and with an advantage in experience and of the surface and course, we think Chat De La Burg will have to imrprove a few pund on his debut run to beat John Jenkins charge. Paddy Powers are taking a chance with 10/3 and the early price should be taken. Some of you may wish to trade at around evens in running but personally I will leave the bet run.
Best Recommendation:
6.20 Kempton LA FORTUNATA 5pts win @ 10/3 (Paddy Power) 2nd
La Fortunata is an out and out speedball who ran a nice race over course and distance last time out when just touched off in a similar event over course and distance last time out. This is a weak contest barring the selection and the favourite, and with an advantage in experience and of the surface and course, we think Chat De La Burg will have to imrprove a few pund on his debut run to beat John Jenkins charge. Paddy Powers are taking a chance with 10/3 and the early price should be taken. Some of you may wish to trade at around evens in running but personally I will leave the bet run.
Best Recommendation:
6.20 Kempton LA FORTUNATA 5pts win @ 10/3 (Paddy Power) 2nd
October 21st
One for tonight.
Dubai Meydan was a confident choice for us last week and was going well when unseated. He runs again over the same course and distance tonight and should go close off a mark that looks fair.
Best Recommendation:
8.50 Kempton Dubai Meydan, 2pts win @ 27.0 (win), 2pts place @ Betfair S.P. placed
Dubai Meydan was a confident choice for us last week and was going well when unseated. He runs again over the same course and distance tonight and should go close off a mark that looks fair.
Best Recommendation:
8.50 Kempton Dubai Meydan, 2pts win @ 27.0 (win), 2pts place @ Betfair S.P. placed
October 19th
One for today.
In the 2.40 at Pontefract, Set Back represents a yard that have been in fine form and had a big priced juvenile winner yesterday at Southwell. The selection made a very decent debut at Catterick, about 4 1/2 lengths behind a very good winner and clearly only learning about the game. If he comes on for the run as normal, he looks to have a fine chance here today. The race features a few horses who have disappointed even though they look to have better chances than the selection on ratings. Set Back is well drawn (unlike some of the principals) and looks set to sit handy before pouncing in the home straight. 10/1 looks a very big price and he is our only bet today.
Best Recommendation:
2.40 Pontefract Set Back 3pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally)
In the 2.40 at Pontefract, Set Back represents a yard that have been in fine form and had a big priced juvenile winner yesterday at Southwell. The selection made a very decent debut at Catterick, about 4 1/2 lengths behind a very good winner and clearly only learning about the game. If he comes on for the run as normal, he looks to have a fine chance here today. The race features a few horses who have disappointed even though they look to have better chances than the selection on ratings. Set Back is well drawn (unlike some of the principals) and looks set to sit handy before pouncing in the home straight. 10/1 looks a very big price and he is our only bet today.
Best Recommendation:
2.40 Pontefract Set Back 3pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally)
October 17th evening
Well Dayia could only manage a place and in truth it has been a week of hitting the bar and hitting the bar again!
One for tonight and there will be no racing bets tomorrow. Do, however, look out for an early mail on Monday because we have a possible maximum bet - our first since Rowan Tiger a couple of weeks back.
It's no surprise that our final bet this week is on Brad's Luck at Wolves tonight. He has run a couple of really eye catching races of late and is undoubtadly well handicapped. He was not beaten far in a better race than this at Lingfield during the week and if connections are to take advantage of his good form, good mark, and a winnable race, then tonight has to be the night. Expect a more forceful ride from Franny Norton. Take the 8/1 still on offer as it seems to be disappearing. I was tempted to go each-way given the poor nature of the contest, but if Brad doesn't win tonight I don't expect he will do so any time soon and a winner will put us right in profit for the week after numerous placed efforts.
Best Recommendation:
7.50 Wolves Brads Luck 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) 2nd
One for tonight and there will be no racing bets tomorrow. Do, however, look out for an early mail on Monday because we have a possible maximum bet - our first since Rowan Tiger a couple of weeks back.
It's no surprise that our final bet this week is on Brad's Luck at Wolves tonight. He has run a couple of really eye catching races of late and is undoubtadly well handicapped. He was not beaten far in a better race than this at Lingfield during the week and if connections are to take advantage of his good form, good mark, and a winnable race, then tonight has to be the night. Expect a more forceful ride from Franny Norton. Take the 8/1 still on offer as it seems to be disappearing. I was tempted to go each-way given the poor nature of the contest, but if Brad doesn't win tonight I don't expect he will do so any time soon and a winner will put us right in profit for the week after numerous placed efforts.
Best Recommendation:
7.50 Wolves Brads Luck 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) 2nd
October 17th
Levels for the day again yesterday.
Three races of interest this afternoon.
First port of call is the Cesarewitch. I mentioned yesterday that those of you who had not backed Dayia could still get on at 33/1 with Bruce's, and there is some 25/1 still available which I think represents good value as a day of race bet. The selection has been aimed at the race since last year, and things have dropped absolutely right for her today. She won last week and is well in under a penalty, the form of the race looks strong with the pair pulling 5 lengths clear of some decent handicappers, and the second was an in-form, well handicapped Stoute horse who looks very progressive. Dayia gave it weight and a beating. She has been drawn really well in stall 35, and happily Blue Bajan has come out enabling Saleem Golam to take the ride with the weights going up just enough. She is reported to have come out of the Wolverhampton race well. This mare won a couple of decent bumpers and it is worth bearing in mind that National Hunt horses have an excellent record in this race. This should not be difficult despite the big field: Saleem should keep her prominent, get a nice sit near the rail, send her on a few furlongs out and hope she is well handicapped enough and acts on the ground well enough to fend off the rest. She should stay all day and at 25/1 is well worth backing.
Ian Wood sends Perfect Ch'I on a 468 mile round trip to Catterick for the 7 furlong fillies' nursery and she can reward all the effort at decent odds. The small field and presence of a few hold up horses amongst the market principals (the favourite being an exception) should ensure she can get the lead she wants from stall 1. Tony Hamilton rides this track well and if he can set a steady pace I think she can take a hand in the finish. The selection has been overfaced in decent sales races recently, and last time out faded in a much better race than this at Kempton. I'm not sure she enjoyed the polytrack and against lesser rivals from a 2lb lower mark she can take a hand in the finish. I priced her up as an 8/1 shot after the non-runners and 14's is an insult.
The staying handicap at Catterick is dominated by horses with selling form only. Astroangel at 11/1 is 0/34 from all starts. Tropical Backelor, Sphere and Andorn are all selling platers at best. Only favourite Simple Jim can be regarded as progressive, but he weakened tamely last time and I won't take a chance at 3/1 that he will return to form. Hernando's Boy looks well overpriced at around 12/1. He ran a nice race last time, travelling well over a trip which might just stretch him - he steps back two furlongs today and is a dual course and distance winner. If you take out the very progressive Prescott horse from his last run, he was beaten by the rest by under three lengths and when you factor in that he races off 4lb lower today, his chance begins to look obvious. He may still have needed that last run to put an edge on him - it was his third run after a long break - and if he strips fitter today he will go close.
Silent Lucidity is less obvious but she is well overpriced on her performance at Wolves last time. Held up in a steadily run race, he travelled well but was trapped wide on the home turn, and when the winner (who is probably a 90 rated horse after the handicapper has his say) had flown, he was not given a hard time. He was very well supported that day and if David Allan makes a bit more use of him here, 25/1 might just look a silly price after the race.
We have a possible bet at Wolves, but as yet undecided - details at 5.30pm.
Best Recommendation:
3.40 Newmarket Dayia 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (William Hill, Coral, guaranteed) placed
4.00 Catterick Perfect Ch'I 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Generally, Get guaranteed)
Already advised:
4.35 Catterick, Hernando's Boy 3pts win @ 12/1 (Stan James
4.35 Catterick, Silent Lucidity 2pts win @ 25/1 (Bet 365)
Three races of interest this afternoon.
First port of call is the Cesarewitch. I mentioned yesterday that those of you who had not backed Dayia could still get on at 33/1 with Bruce's, and there is some 25/1 still available which I think represents good value as a day of race bet. The selection has been aimed at the race since last year, and things have dropped absolutely right for her today. She won last week and is well in under a penalty, the form of the race looks strong with the pair pulling 5 lengths clear of some decent handicappers, and the second was an in-form, well handicapped Stoute horse who looks very progressive. Dayia gave it weight and a beating. She has been drawn really well in stall 35, and happily Blue Bajan has come out enabling Saleem Golam to take the ride with the weights going up just enough. She is reported to have come out of the Wolverhampton race well. This mare won a couple of decent bumpers and it is worth bearing in mind that National Hunt horses have an excellent record in this race. This should not be difficult despite the big field: Saleem should keep her prominent, get a nice sit near the rail, send her on a few furlongs out and hope she is well handicapped enough and acts on the ground well enough to fend off the rest. She should stay all day and at 25/1 is well worth backing.
Ian Wood sends Perfect Ch'I on a 468 mile round trip to Catterick for the 7 furlong fillies' nursery and she can reward all the effort at decent odds. The small field and presence of a few hold up horses amongst the market principals (the favourite being an exception) should ensure she can get the lead she wants from stall 1. Tony Hamilton rides this track well and if he can set a steady pace I think she can take a hand in the finish. The selection has been overfaced in decent sales races recently, and last time out faded in a much better race than this at Kempton. I'm not sure she enjoyed the polytrack and against lesser rivals from a 2lb lower mark she can take a hand in the finish. I priced her up as an 8/1 shot after the non-runners and 14's is an insult.
The staying handicap at Catterick is dominated by horses with selling form only. Astroangel at 11/1 is 0/34 from all starts. Tropical Backelor, Sphere and Andorn are all selling platers at best. Only favourite Simple Jim can be regarded as progressive, but he weakened tamely last time and I won't take a chance at 3/1 that he will return to form. Hernando's Boy looks well overpriced at around 12/1. He ran a nice race last time, travelling well over a trip which might just stretch him - he steps back two furlongs today and is a dual course and distance winner. If you take out the very progressive Prescott horse from his last run, he was beaten by the rest by under three lengths and when you factor in that he races off 4lb lower today, his chance begins to look obvious. He may still have needed that last run to put an edge on him - it was his third run after a long break - and if he strips fitter today he will go close.
Silent Lucidity is less obvious but she is well overpriced on her performance at Wolves last time. Held up in a steadily run race, he travelled well but was trapped wide on the home turn, and when the winner (who is probably a 90 rated horse after the handicapper has his say) had flown, he was not given a hard time. He was very well supported that day and if David Allan makes a bit more use of him here, 25/1 might just look a silly price after the race.
We have a possible bet at Wolves, but as yet undecided - details at 5.30pm.
Best Recommendation:
3.40 Newmarket Dayia 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (William Hill, Coral, guaranteed) placed
4.00 Catterick Perfect Ch'I 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Generally, Get guaranteed)
Already advised:
4.35 Catterick, Hernando's Boy 3pts win @ 12/1 (Stan James
4.35 Catterick, Silent Lucidity 2pts win @ 25/1 (Bet 365)
October 16th
12/1 and 10/1 placers from 3 bets yesterday. Cayman Fox ran a fine race but was sent off to quickly by the 7lb claimer who was drafted in because Franny Norton was caught in traffic (ironic after his ride on Brad's Luck the other night?!?!) and was caught inside the final furlong. Autocracy got third but Hold The Star disappointed after travelling well into the home straight and doesn't look like a horse worth following.
Another busy day ahead with two bets this afternoon and possibly more to come this evening. Also a bit of bad news in that Hugh Taylor has nicked our Cesarewitch tip Dayia, which I was pretty sweet on at 50/1, but now trades generally at 25/1 across the board. I've spoken about the horse before, she has been targeted at the race since last year and looks an out and out stayer. Those of you who still want to get on can avail of some stray 33/1 with www.brucebetting.com .
My eyes will be on Cheltenham for most of the afternoon, but it is not a betting meeting for me and the wallet is at Redcar. Wasn't Sizing Europe impressive yesterday, by the way?
In Redcar's 3.20, Royal Record looks overpriced. She was outclassed in a valuable sales race last time out but did not disgrace herself and this is more her level. The market principals don't look like superstars and there is some flotsam and jetsam in here too. It interests me that Royal Record was so well supported at Thirsk on her penultimate run, and she ran a really nice race in a fair maiden but shaped as if she got bogged down in the ground towards the finish. Redcar rides good to firm today and I think that should see her get close to winning this. John Cavanagh is worth his 7lb claim and while stable form is a worry, the fact that the selection ran ok three weeks ago means I don't mind risking a small each-way with the dead eight runners.
In the mile maiden at 3.55, Fourth Generation of the Alan Swinbank stable looks overpriced. The stable have a decent 4-25 16% strike rate with their 2yo's at this track in recent seasons returning a good level stakes profit. This race is generally won by a low to mid 70's type and I think the selection is capable of just that. He is by Kris Kin, whose progeny seem to show a preference for good or better ground like their Dad. Fourth Generation's debut was on soft ground at Thirsk but he ran a perfectly reasonable race, slowly away and showing promise by progressing through the field to chase the leaders in the home straight. He faded and was green under the whip but wasn't given anything like a hard time of it. The form of the race is open to debate but the horse who finished behind him has won his maiden since and at 20/1 I expect a better performance today on good to firm ground - the stables juveniles often improve significantly for their first run and are underestimated in the markets.
Look out for an improved run from Drop The Hammer in the staying handicap (4.30pm). I thought he was given a strange ride last time out but I bet on form and I'm not a conspiracy theorist, so will happily take a watching brief.
Wolves bets out at 5.30pm.
Best Recomendation:
3.20 Redcar Royal Record, 2pts each-way @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
3.55 Redcar Fourth Generation, 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) placed
Another busy day ahead with two bets this afternoon and possibly more to come this evening. Also a bit of bad news in that Hugh Taylor has nicked our Cesarewitch tip Dayia, which I was pretty sweet on at 50/1, but now trades generally at 25/1 across the board. I've spoken about the horse before, she has been targeted at the race since last year and looks an out and out stayer. Those of you who still want to get on can avail of some stray 33/1 with www.brucebetting.com .
My eyes will be on Cheltenham for most of the afternoon, but it is not a betting meeting for me and the wallet is at Redcar. Wasn't Sizing Europe impressive yesterday, by the way?
In Redcar's 3.20, Royal Record looks overpriced. She was outclassed in a valuable sales race last time out but did not disgrace herself and this is more her level. The market principals don't look like superstars and there is some flotsam and jetsam in here too. It interests me that Royal Record was so well supported at Thirsk on her penultimate run, and she ran a really nice race in a fair maiden but shaped as if she got bogged down in the ground towards the finish. Redcar rides good to firm today and I think that should see her get close to winning this. John Cavanagh is worth his 7lb claim and while stable form is a worry, the fact that the selection ran ok three weeks ago means I don't mind risking a small each-way with the dead eight runners.
In the mile maiden at 3.55, Fourth Generation of the Alan Swinbank stable looks overpriced. The stable have a decent 4-25 16% strike rate with their 2yo's at this track in recent seasons returning a good level stakes profit. This race is generally won by a low to mid 70's type and I think the selection is capable of just that. He is by Kris Kin, whose progeny seem to show a preference for good or better ground like their Dad. Fourth Generation's debut was on soft ground at Thirsk but he ran a perfectly reasonable race, slowly away and showing promise by progressing through the field to chase the leaders in the home straight. He faded and was green under the whip but wasn't given anything like a hard time of it. The form of the race is open to debate but the horse who finished behind him has won his maiden since and at 20/1 I expect a better performance today on good to firm ground - the stables juveniles often improve significantly for their first run and are underestimated in the markets.
Look out for an improved run from Drop The Hammer in the staying handicap (4.30pm). I thought he was given a strange ride last time out but I bet on form and I'm not a conspiracy theorist, so will happily take a watching brief.
Wolves bets out at 5.30pm.
Best Recomendation:
3.20 Redcar Royal Record, 2pts each-way @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
3.55 Redcar Fourth Generation, 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) placed
October 15th
I thought we were a little unlucky yesterday and I'm quite sure Brad's Luck and in particular Dubai Meydan will be picking up races soon. Whether the markets pick them up and send them off shorter prices than they should be is another thing, and it may be that we've missed the boat on them.
On to tonight, and an interesting card at Wolverhampton. I'd just like to mention, that it is quite unusual for us to have three bets in a day. Often we'll have blank days when there are no suitable opportunities, but we've no problem having two or three bets if the right horses come along, which as it happens is the case today.
In the fillies handicap over 5f (6.00pm), I can't believe the price on Cayman Fox with Coral bookmakers. They make her a 12/1 chance and chalk up Metal Guru at 6/1 but James Moffat's charge is 7lb better for a half length on their form over course and distance last time out. Cayman Fox missed the break that day (the first time she has done so since her debut - she is normally quick from the stalls) which cost her a length and I feel that collateral form is best judged on Metal Guru's previous head defeat of Cayman Fox over course and distance - the selection is 8lb better off for that effort, and has a better draw today. Favourite Anne Of Kiev has not run in almost a year, and there must be question marks about her race fitness. The main danger is that we get stuck in a pace duel with Feelin Foxy - but I think we'll win that duel if it materializes and Wolves is a track where front runners can hold on over the minimum trip. The selection is 1/22 career record is offset for me by the fact that she has been slowly progressive since the fitting of an eyeshield, and has run well over course and distance on numerous occasions.
The 6f maiden (6.30pm) is also interesting. I'm not sure about the form of King Of Windsor's Salisbury race last time out and I just wonder if he was beaten fair and square on the day. Ironically, the horse I'm interested in is another last time out odds-on flop in the shape of Autocracy. He has been well touted by the Haggas yard but looked uncomfortable on good to firm ground at Sandown on his debut. He then went to Thirsk, and showed up well before fading on good to soft ground, which probably didn't suit him - to my eyes in was proper soft ground and I don't know where the stewards got the "good" part from. What interests me is the horses' American pedigree. He is by Green Desert, whose progeny do well on artificial surfaces, and I think an improved performance could be on the cards this evening. It should be quick enough for him to use his speed on, but forgiving enough to allow him to let himself down and stretch on in the home straight, which is something I don't feel we've seen him do yet. The Haggas yard are in much better form now than back in August, and unless they are trying for a handicap mark (I doubt they have any interest in racking up a string of class 6 handicaps with a well bred half brother to Reverence) I can't see Autocracy out of the frame unless he is devoid of ability altogether. Baralaman is poorly drawn and looks average, and Tomatin is having his first visit to the racecourse.
I had looked at Chia as a possible bet at 28/1 in the 8.30pm, but have declined as I think Kildare Sun will take her on for the lead and there are the obvious fitness issues.
Last bet is at 9.00pm in the 1m4f handicap for fillies. This looks a poor contest. The Cumani handicap debutant has been backed into 2/1 this morning, and could be anything, but I'm not in the habit of betting the overbet and she could quite easily bomb out. It's hard to say what Tinkerbelle beat last time. One interesting horse at a price is Hold The Star. Her stable have hit form in no uncertain terms over the last few days and have had three winners (one very well backed) after a very quiet period. Tom Queally has been doing really well this year and is getting to the stage where he can pick and choose what he rides - so why is he hanging around for 2 hours after his mount in the 7.00pm contest to ride this filly? I reckon he gave her a less than perfect ride last time out, but jumped off and suggested a step up in trip to connections. She was trapped wide and hampered last time out but still ran a fair race to finish sixth over a trip which is probably on the short side for her. If 12 furlongs proves to be her thing, then connections have found the right race for her tonight.
Best Recommendation:
6.00 Wolves Cayman Fox, 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Coral, guaranteed) placed
6.30 Wolves Autocracy, 3pts each-way @ 7/1 (Generally - make sure to get guaranteed)placed
9.00 Wolves Hold The Star, 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Generally - get guaranteed)
On to tonight, and an interesting card at Wolverhampton. I'd just like to mention, that it is quite unusual for us to have three bets in a day. Often we'll have blank days when there are no suitable opportunities, but we've no problem having two or three bets if the right horses come along, which as it happens is the case today.
In the fillies handicap over 5f (6.00pm), I can't believe the price on Cayman Fox with Coral bookmakers. They make her a 12/1 chance and chalk up Metal Guru at 6/1 but James Moffat's charge is 7lb better for a half length on their form over course and distance last time out. Cayman Fox missed the break that day (the first time she has done so since her debut - she is normally quick from the stalls) which cost her a length and I feel that collateral form is best judged on Metal Guru's previous head defeat of Cayman Fox over course and distance - the selection is 8lb better off for that effort, and has a better draw today. Favourite Anne Of Kiev has not run in almost a year, and there must be question marks about her race fitness. The main danger is that we get stuck in a pace duel with Feelin Foxy - but I think we'll win that duel if it materializes and Wolves is a track where front runners can hold on over the minimum trip. The selection is 1/22 career record is offset for me by the fact that she has been slowly progressive since the fitting of an eyeshield, and has run well over course and distance on numerous occasions.
The 6f maiden (6.30pm) is also interesting. I'm not sure about the form of King Of Windsor's Salisbury race last time out and I just wonder if he was beaten fair and square on the day. Ironically, the horse I'm interested in is another last time out odds-on flop in the shape of Autocracy. He has been well touted by the Haggas yard but looked uncomfortable on good to firm ground at Sandown on his debut. He then went to Thirsk, and showed up well before fading on good to soft ground, which probably didn't suit him - to my eyes in was proper soft ground and I don't know where the stewards got the "good" part from. What interests me is the horses' American pedigree. He is by Green Desert, whose progeny do well on artificial surfaces, and I think an improved performance could be on the cards this evening. It should be quick enough for him to use his speed on, but forgiving enough to allow him to let himself down and stretch on in the home straight, which is something I don't feel we've seen him do yet. The Haggas yard are in much better form now than back in August, and unless they are trying for a handicap mark (I doubt they have any interest in racking up a string of class 6 handicaps with a well bred half brother to Reverence) I can't see Autocracy out of the frame unless he is devoid of ability altogether. Baralaman is poorly drawn and looks average, and Tomatin is having his first visit to the racecourse.
I had looked at Chia as a possible bet at 28/1 in the 8.30pm, but have declined as I think Kildare Sun will take her on for the lead and there are the obvious fitness issues.
Last bet is at 9.00pm in the 1m4f handicap for fillies. This looks a poor contest. The Cumani handicap debutant has been backed into 2/1 this morning, and could be anything, but I'm not in the habit of betting the overbet and she could quite easily bomb out. It's hard to say what Tinkerbelle beat last time. One interesting horse at a price is Hold The Star. Her stable have hit form in no uncertain terms over the last few days and have had three winners (one very well backed) after a very quiet period. Tom Queally has been doing really well this year and is getting to the stage where he can pick and choose what he rides - so why is he hanging around for 2 hours after his mount in the 7.00pm contest to ride this filly? I reckon he gave her a less than perfect ride last time out, but jumped off and suggested a step up in trip to connections. She was trapped wide and hampered last time out but still ran a fair race to finish sixth over a trip which is probably on the short side for her. If 12 furlongs proves to be her thing, then connections have found the right race for her tonight.
Best Recommendation:
6.00 Wolves Cayman Fox, 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Coral, guaranteed) placed
6.30 Wolves Autocracy, 3pts each-way @ 7/1 (Generally - make sure to get guaranteed)placed
9.00 Wolves Hold The Star, 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Generally - get guaranteed)
October 14th evening
One bet for tonight, another at a very big price but the price demands that it should be backed.
Gay Kelleway has her string in fine form (two winners at Lingfield today) and she sends Dubai Meydan to Kempton to contest the 7f handicap. The selection is a relatively lightly raced son of High Chapparal, who has sired winners on this surface and at this track - the excellent Highly Regal, who won the London Mile final for us at 33/1, is also sired by the dual Breeders Cup Turf winner. Dubai Maydan reappeared six days ago over a mile at this course, and missed the break by about eight lengths before making the ground up quickly and pulling hard travelling three wide throughout. The fact that he was only beaten around seven lengths and did not fade out of it speaks volumes, for he expended plenty of energy in catching up with the leaders and then pulling for his head. His only win so far was over today's trip, so the step back to seven looks the right option in my view given how well he travelled the other night. It's interesting that he finished only around a length behind King's Topic, who was a 9/1 shot for this contest before being declared a non runner. If he can get his act together at the stalls and get a better trip from Steve Drowne, the 33/1 widely available will look a ridiculous price by 9.00pm. Interestingly, his previous win also came on his second run after a break, over seven furlongs, seven days after his reappearance over a mile!
Best recommendation:
8.50 Kempton Dubai Meydan 2pts each-way @ 33/1 (Generally - get guaranteed)
OR back 2pts to win on Betfair at around 40/1, 2pts place with Paddy Power @ 17/2.
Gay Kelleway has her string in fine form (two winners at Lingfield today) and she sends Dubai Meydan to Kempton to contest the 7f handicap. The selection is a relatively lightly raced son of High Chapparal, who has sired winners on this surface and at this track - the excellent Highly Regal, who won the London Mile final for us at 33/1, is also sired by the dual Breeders Cup Turf winner. Dubai Maydan reappeared six days ago over a mile at this course, and missed the break by about eight lengths before making the ground up quickly and pulling hard travelling three wide throughout. The fact that he was only beaten around seven lengths and did not fade out of it speaks volumes, for he expended plenty of energy in catching up with the leaders and then pulling for his head. His only win so far was over today's trip, so the step back to seven looks the right option in my view given how well he travelled the other night. It's interesting that he finished only around a length behind King's Topic, who was a 9/1 shot for this contest before being declared a non runner. If he can get his act together at the stalls and get a better trip from Steve Drowne, the 33/1 widely available will look a ridiculous price by 9.00pm. Interestingly, his previous win also came on his second run after a break, over seven furlongs, seven days after his reappearance over a mile!
Best recommendation:
8.50 Kempton Dubai Meydan 2pts each-way @ 33/1 (Generally - get guaranteed)
OR back 2pts to win on Betfair at around 40/1, 2pts place with Paddy Power @ 17/2.
October 14th afternoon
Early price bet is for Brad's Luck in the 5.15 at Lingfield. The selection has been relatively slow to show any form but his level of performance has improved as he has been stepped up in trip and his penultimate run at Wolverhampton was eye catching in the extreme. Having been ridden to get in contention, he came back on the bridle around the home turn but suffered a troubled passage which saw Franny Norton ease him down when his chance had gone. He was oddly stepped back to the extended nine furlongs last time out, and was tipped up by Hugh Taylor at a big price in the morning on the basis of the previous run. However, the step back in trip was a negative in my book and he was never really put in the race, given a nice quiet ride by Norton and allowed to come home in his own time. He is stepped up to an out and out staying trip for the first time today, and it really interests me that the stable have him entered in this contest and two others in the coming days. I'm getting the impression they may want to turn him out quickly under a penalty. Either way, it seems to me they are going for it this time. The step up to two miles is an unknown, but 25/1 shots generally come with some sort of risk and at the prices I'm happy to take that risk here. There is a possibility Taylor might tip this horse up again, so I've taken the price already and the advice is for clients to do so too.
Just a small additional bet at Lingfield.
Tamtara represents Amanda Perrett, whose horses are in slightly better form these days after a poor run of form earlier in the season. The selection competed in a decent Goodwood maiden last time, out of which the second and third have won since, and the fifth and seventh have run second since. She was drawn wide and suffered a wide trip, and did not fade at the furlong pole when she came under pressure after travelling strongly. The step back to seven furlongs today is probably a good move, and although she is drawn wide again, stall 11 does not look insurmountable over seven furlongs here. Jim Crowley takes the ride and with some luck in running, she could run a lot better than her price suggests.
Best Recommendation:
3.05 Lingfield Tamtara, 1pt each-way @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed!)
Best Recommendation:
5.15 Lingfield Brads Luck, 2pts each-way @ 25/1 (Betfred, Stan James - Guaranteed)
Just a small additional bet at Lingfield.
Tamtara represents Amanda Perrett, whose horses are in slightly better form these days after a poor run of form earlier in the season. The selection competed in a decent Goodwood maiden last time, out of which the second and third have won since, and the fifth and seventh have run second since. She was drawn wide and suffered a wide trip, and did not fade at the furlong pole when she came under pressure after travelling strongly. The step back to seven furlongs today is probably a good move, and although she is drawn wide again, stall 11 does not look insurmountable over seven furlongs here. Jim Crowley takes the ride and with some luck in running, she could run a lot better than her price suggests.
Best Recommendation:
3.05 Lingfield Tamtara, 1pt each-way @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed!)
Best Recommendation:
5.15 Lingfield Brads Luck, 2pts each-way @ 25/1 (Betfred, Stan James - Guaranteed)
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