October 14th afternoon

Early price bet is for Brad's Luck in the 5.15 at Lingfield. The selection has been relatively slow to show any form but his level of performance has improved as he has been stepped up in trip and his penultimate run at Wolverhampton was eye catching in the extreme. Having been ridden to get in contention, he came back on the bridle around the home turn but suffered a troubled passage which saw Franny Norton ease him down when his chance had gone. He was oddly stepped back to the extended nine furlongs last time out, and was tipped up by Hugh Taylor at a big price in the morning on the basis of the previous run. However, the step back in trip was a negative in my book and he was never really put in the race, given a nice quiet ride by Norton and allowed to come home in his own time. He is stepped up to an out and out staying trip for the first time today, and it really interests me that the stable have him entered in this contest and two others in the coming days. I'm getting the impression they may want to turn him out quickly under a penalty. Either way, it seems to me they are going for it this time. The step up to two miles is an unknown, but 25/1 shots generally come with some sort of risk and at the prices I'm happy to take that risk here. There is a possibility Taylor might tip this horse up again, so I've taken the price already and the advice is for clients to do so too.

Just a small additional bet at Lingfield.

Tamtara represents Amanda Perrett, whose horses are in slightly better form these days after a poor run of form earlier in the season. The selection competed in a decent Goodwood maiden last time, out of which the second and third have won since, and the fifth and seventh have run second since. She was drawn wide and suffered a wide trip, and did not fade at the furlong pole when she came under pressure after travelling strongly. The step back to seven furlongs today is probably a good move, and although she is drawn wide again, stall 11 does not look insurmountable over seven furlongs here. Jim Crowley takes the ride and with some luck in running, she could run a lot better than her price suggests.

Best Recommendation:

3.05 Lingfield Tamtara, 1pt each-way @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed!)

Best Recommendation:

5.15 Lingfield Brads Luck, 2pts each-way @ 25/1 (Betfred, Stan James - Guaranteed)