October 15th

I thought we were a little unlucky yesterday and I'm quite sure Brad's Luck and in particular Dubai Meydan will be picking up races soon. Whether the markets pick them up and send them off shorter prices than they should be is another thing, and it may be that we've missed the boat on them.

On to tonight, and an interesting card at Wolverhampton. I'd just like to mention, that it is quite unusual for us to have three bets in a day. Often we'll have blank days when there are no suitable opportunities, but we've no problem having two or three bets if the right horses come along, which as it happens is the case today.

In the fillies handicap over 5f (6.00pm), I can't believe the price on Cayman Fox with Coral bookmakers. They make her a 12/1 chance and chalk up Metal Guru at 6/1 but James Moffat's charge is 7lb better for a half length on their form over course and distance last time out. Cayman Fox missed the break that day (the first time she has done so since her debut - she is normally quick from the stalls) which cost her a length and I feel that collateral form is best judged on Metal Guru's previous head defeat of Cayman Fox over course and distance - the selection is 8lb better off for that effort, and has a better draw today. Favourite Anne Of Kiev has not run in almost a year, and there must be question marks about her race fitness. The main danger is that we get stuck in a pace duel with Feelin Foxy - but I think we'll win that duel if it materializes and Wolves is a track where front runners can hold on over the minimum trip. The selection is 1/22 career record is offset for me by the fact that she has been slowly progressive since the fitting of an eyeshield, and has run well over course and distance on numerous occasions.

The 6f maiden (6.30pm) is also interesting. I'm not sure about the form of King Of Windsor's Salisbury race last time out and I just wonder if he was beaten fair and square on the day. Ironically, the horse I'm interested in is another last time out odds-on flop in the shape of Autocracy. He has been well touted by the Haggas yard but looked uncomfortable on good to firm ground at Sandown on his debut. He then went to Thirsk, and showed up well before fading on good to soft ground, which probably didn't suit him - to my eyes in was proper soft ground and I don't know where the stewards got the "good" part from. What interests me is the horses' American pedigree. He is by Green Desert, whose progeny do well on artificial surfaces, and I think an improved performance could be on the cards this evening. It should be quick enough for him to use his speed on, but forgiving enough to allow him to let himself down and stretch on in the home straight, which is something I don't feel we've seen him do yet. The Haggas yard are in much better form now than back in August, and unless they are trying for a handicap mark (I doubt they have any interest in racking up a string of class 6 handicaps with a well bred half brother to Reverence) I can't see Autocracy out of the frame unless he is devoid of ability altogether. Baralaman is poorly drawn and looks average, and Tomatin is having his first visit to the racecourse.

I had looked at Chia as a possible bet at 28/1 in the 8.30pm, but have declined as I think Kildare Sun will take her on for the lead and there are the obvious fitness issues.

Last bet is at 9.00pm in the 1m4f handicap for fillies. This looks a poor contest. The Cumani handicap debutant has been backed into 2/1 this morning, and could be anything, but I'm not in the habit of betting the overbet and she could quite easily bomb out. It's hard to say what Tinkerbelle beat last time. One interesting horse at a price is Hold The Star. Her stable have hit form in no uncertain terms over the last few days and have had three winners (one very well backed) after a very quiet period. Tom Queally has been doing really well this year and is getting to the stage where he can pick and choose what he rides - so why is he hanging around for 2 hours after his mount in the 7.00pm contest to ride this filly? I reckon he gave her a less than perfect ride last time out, but jumped off and suggested a step up in trip to connections. She was trapped wide and hampered last time out but still ran a fair race to finish sixth over a trip which is probably on the short side for her. If 12 furlongs proves to be her thing, then connections have found the right race for her tonight.

Best Recommendation:

6.00 Wolves Cayman Fox, 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Coral, guaranteed) placed

6.30 Wolves Autocracy, 3pts each-way @ 7/1 (Generally - make sure to get guaranteed)placed

9.00 Wolves Hold The Star, 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Generally - get guaranteed)