October 17th

Levels for the day again yesterday.

Three races of interest this afternoon.

First port of call is the Cesarewitch. I mentioned yesterday that those of you who had not backed Dayia could still get on at 33/1 with Bruce's, and there is some 25/1 still available which I think represents good value as a day of race bet. The selection has been aimed at the race since last year, and things have dropped absolutely right for her today. She won last week and is well in under a penalty, the form of the race looks strong with the pair pulling 5 lengths clear of some decent handicappers, and the second was an in-form, well handicapped Stoute horse who looks very progressive. Dayia gave it weight and a beating. She has been drawn really well in stall 35, and happily Blue Bajan has come out enabling Saleem Golam to take the ride with the weights going up just enough. She is reported to have come out of the Wolverhampton race well. This mare won a couple of decent bumpers and it is worth bearing in mind that National Hunt horses have an excellent record in this race. This should not be difficult despite the big field: Saleem should keep her prominent, get a nice sit near the rail, send her on a few furlongs out and hope she is well handicapped enough and acts on the ground well enough to fend off the rest. She should stay all day and at 25/1 is well worth backing.

Ian Wood sends Perfect Ch'I on a 468 mile round trip to Catterick for the 7 furlong fillies' nursery and she can reward all the effort at decent odds. The small field and presence of a few hold up horses amongst the market principals (the favourite being an exception) should ensure she can get the lead she wants from stall 1. Tony Hamilton rides this track well and if he can set a steady pace I think she can take a hand in the finish. The selection has been overfaced in decent sales races recently, and last time out faded in a much better race than this at Kempton. I'm not sure she enjoyed the polytrack and against lesser rivals from a 2lb lower mark she can take a hand in the finish. I priced her up as an 8/1 shot after the non-runners and 14's is an insult.

The staying handicap at Catterick is dominated by horses with selling form only. Astroangel at 11/1 is 0/34 from all starts. Tropical Backelor, Sphere and Andorn are all selling platers at best. Only favourite Simple Jim can be regarded as progressive, but he weakened tamely last time and I won't take a chance at 3/1 that he will return to form. Hernando's Boy looks well overpriced at around 12/1. He ran a nice race last time, travelling well over a trip which might just stretch him - he steps back two furlongs today and is a dual course and distance winner. If you take out the very progressive Prescott horse from his last run, he was beaten by the rest by under three lengths and when you factor in that he races off 4lb lower today, his chance begins to look obvious. He may still have needed that last run to put an edge on him - it was his third run after a long break - and if he strips fitter today he will go close.

Silent Lucidity is less obvious but she is well overpriced on her performance at Wolves last time. Held up in a steadily run race, he travelled well but was trapped wide on the home turn, and when the winner (who is probably a 90 rated horse after the handicapper has his say) had flown, he was not given a hard time. He was very well supported that day and if David Allan makes a bit more use of him here, 25/1 might just look a silly price after the race.

We have a possible bet at Wolves, but as yet undecided - details at 5.30pm.

Best Recommendation:

3.40 Newmarket Dayia 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (William Hill, Coral, guaranteed) placed

4.00 Catterick Perfect Ch'I 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Generally, Get guaranteed)

Already advised:

4.35 Catterick, Hernando's Boy 3pts win @ 12/1 (Stan James

4.35 Catterick, Silent Lucidity 2pts win @ 25/1 (Bet 365)