A nice 25/1 each-way third last night and a 20/1 each-way second this morning. Good results but we have not hit the jackpot this week and you guys can see what I mean that value betting takes patience and we won't always bang in loads of big priced winners like last week. The selection process does not change, though, so once you get the prices and stick to the correct staking, we'll give you the selections that will keep you ahead over time.
One for this afternoon on a tricky day, with a possible second bet this evening.
The Pipe stable don't send horses to races like the Paddy Power Gold Cup willy nilly, and in the absence of a major strong form candidate in today's big race I'm happy to take a chance on the lightly raced I'm So Lucky being equal to the task. He looks well handicapped on a mark of 139 and carries a light weight of 10-4 on his back for this two and a half mile test. The stable made a habit out of plundering these Saturday contests with big priced horses in the last two seasons, and it interests me that there are a few from the yard Pipe could have aimed at this race, but he sends I'm So Lucky. He must think ha has some sort of chance, and if he handles the ground and gets a clear round in, I think he rates excellent each-way value at 33/1.
Marco Botti runs Mercoliano in the extended nine furlong contest at Wolverhampton at 7.50pm, a contest the trainer won last year with Gitano Hernando. He is a 9/1 shot with Paddy Power, which looks a touch big given the promise of his first run behind a couple of mid 70 types on his debut at this track over the extended mile. He was green when asked to quicken and when he finally did start to run on, he was trapped behind his three rivals. He will have come on a bundle for that run and will appreciate the extra furlong tonight, as well as the 3lb Andrea Atzeni takes off his back. There are a couple of Godolphin newcomers making the market here, along with a horse who no longer looks to be improving, and given that the selection looked like such a fine physical specimen on his debut, I'm going to have a nice bet on him to improve tonight and go close to winning.
Best Recommendation:
7.50 Wolves Mercaliano, 3pts each-way @ 9/1 (Paddy Power, guaranteed)
2.35 Cheltenham I'm So Lucky, 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
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