Tuesday November 24th

Another winner yesterday but unfortunately a late non-runner and rule 4 deduction meant our even money was no more. It is rare I bet at evens, and I simply would not put up a 4/6 shot as a recommendation, but in my opinion the evens was very good value. He won handy enough, and it's 3pts profit whatever way you look at it.

A busy day today with three bets.

In the 1.30 Novice Stakes, Budva represents Hughie Morrison, who does really well at Southwell but whose juveniles tend to come on for the run. He missed the break on his debut, and had to be rousted to get a position but he came on the bridle when he realised what the game was all about, and showed some promise suffering a wide trip all the way, galloping on late down the straight but being eased when his chance had gone. There is little doubt he will come on for that run mentally and in terms of fitness, and I think he is a big price at 4/1 today with the market principals both making their racecourse debuts here. Stable jock Steve Drowne takes the ride and while the selection may need further in time, he can go close in this race if he is able to lie up with the pace early doors.

In the 2.00 5f handicap, Embra is worth a flyer at a double figure price. The selection has no fibresand experience, but she has shown herself to be in really good heart lately with a promising run at Kempton and another last time out at Lingfield, where she got no run and could not pick up in the sixth furlong. Fibresand and a straight five furlongs might just be her thing, and I think if she handles the surface and faces the kickback, she can power clear in the closing stages here. She has a fair draw and a good 3lb claimer on board.

In the 2.30 maiden over 1m4f, Mary Hambro's Warren Bank is worth an each-way interest. The selection ran a decent race second time out at Wolves over an extended nine furlongs last time, behind a Godolphin hotpot who is basically a group horse. The third has run well in a fair handicap since, and on breeding Warren Bank should appreciate the step up in trip. The Gosden fav bombed out last time and has questions to answer, and the Prescott second fav doesn't look up to much. I thought Warren Bank should have been second favourite here, and on that basis the 7/1 on offer is good value. He is George Baker's only ride of the day and he has a 2-11 strike rate for the stable in recent years returning a decent level stakes profit. The stable's recent runners have performed well.

Best Recommendation:

1.30 Southwell Budva, 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

2.00 Southwell Embra, 2pts win @ 12/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)

2.30 Southwell Warren Bank, 3pts each-way @ 7/1 (Boylesports, guaranteed)