Two interests for today.
Big Nige is an interesting entry for the 1m2f maiden race at Lingfield (3.05). Trainer Jeff Pearce does really well on the all weather with stayers in particular (Dayia, Dazzling Begum etc) and he generally gives horses plenty of time to find their form and develop. Big Nige has shown only moderate form to date but he has tended to pull hard and has looked immature. His best form was on the all weather last winter so conditions are in his favour today. He has qualified for handicaps off a mark of 64, which he looks capable of winning off, so it is interesting that Pearce enters him in this weak maiden. It may be that he feels he has found a good opportunity to go for the win against an unraced favourite, and some poor market rivals. If the selection has matured and is fit and ready to go, he could win this at a big price. Stable and jockey had a 33/1 winner here the other day and have been in good form. The unusual volume of interest on the betfair place market also bodes well.
We have a big priced selection in the final race of the night at Kempton. Grand Honour represents Paul Howling. The selection has come slowly down the weights of late and is not a regular winner, but he does get his ideal conditions tonight - a likely strong pace over 7f at Kempton. He should be fit after a recent run over a mile here, following a long few months break. The run over a mile seemed to suggest he is in good heart, he pulled hard and made a challenge approaching the furlong pole before fading near the finish. He was never going to get into it from behind in that small field and the drop back in trip tonight combined with 13 runners looks ideal. 33/1 is too big, we had him down as a 16/1 shot and I'm happy to take a chance at rewarding odds.
Best Recommendation:
3.05 Lingfield Big Nige, 3pts each-way @ 16/1 (Generally, guaranteed) placed @ 20/1
9.20 Kempton Grand Honour, 2pts each-way @ 33/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
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