A small profit yesterday with Roshina running into a place. Our solid run of form continues.
Two confident bets for today.
Sinbad The Sailor was far more impressive last time out at Wolverhampton then the eventual margin of victory suggests. He took lengths out of the opposition on the home turn in the manner of a horse who is well handicapped. I reckon claimer Matthew Davies sent him on too soon and in the end it told, Sir Sandicliffe was able to make inroads on the defecit towards the finish line, the pair well clear. However, ridden with more restraint Sinbad could have won by a greater distance. Sir Sandicliffe bolstered the form, winning well next time out, and despite the step up in class and a ten pound rise in the weights, the selection looks capable of following up here.
Betfred's early 15/8 about the Mark Johnston improver Seamstress for the 7f handicap at Kempton looks too big. I think he'll reverse form with Robust Wish, getting plenty of weight from that rival and having improved since. Tiradito and Transfixed both need to improve to win and I can't see either doing so. And Clive Brittain's stable are still a bit hit and miss, Niran was a good 2yo but he will need to be 100% fit and ready to beat Seamstress first time out. I think the Johnston horse is the one to beat, progeny of Pivotal do really well at Kempton and 15/8 looks a big price - it is also guaranteed.
Best Recommendation:
4.10 Lingfield Sinbad The Sailor, 6pts win @ 10/3 (Generally, get guaranteed) WON
8.00 Kempton Seamstress, 6pts win @ 15/8 (Betfred, guaranteed)
Friday, February 26, 2010
Tuesday February 23rd
A good winner yesterday and yet again we beat the price which is always a good thing. We've been in good form lately.
One bet for today.
Roshina represents Jo Crowley and ran really well on her first run for Jo last time out at Kempton. She finished third in a race in which the winner has since won a good handicap impressively, the second has won a handicap impressively, the sixth has won a maiden by eight lengths, and the seventh has finished third in a fair maiden, improving a stone on his debut run in the process. Clearly, the race is working out very well and you have to question the handicapper as to why he has dropped Roshina a very generous 5lbs for that run. She steps back in trip to seven furlongs today but had no problem keeping tabs with good horses last time, briefly tapped for toe and caught in a pocket before she stayed on for third. It has to be remembered that she had a lot more experience than those horses, but her new handicap mark looks like one she can win off if we sift through her Irish form. There is also the hope that she will come on for that run in terms of fitness.
She is drawn one today and I'm hoping Ian Mongan again keeps her fairly prominent, keeps things simple and sends her on coming around the home turn. Lady Kent, the favourite, looks the danger and on their recent form I would have it between the pair. In an eight runner race with three places paid, she looks a great value bet at 11/2. I don't expect the price to last so get on early.
Members, keep an eye out for the next installment of our Cheltenham ante post portfolio later today!
Best Recommendation:
4.10 Lingfield Roshina, 3pts each-way @ 11/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) E/W 3rd
One bet for today.
Roshina represents Jo Crowley and ran really well on her first run for Jo last time out at Kempton. She finished third in a race in which the winner has since won a good handicap impressively, the second has won a handicap impressively, the sixth has won a maiden by eight lengths, and the seventh has finished third in a fair maiden, improving a stone on his debut run in the process. Clearly, the race is working out very well and you have to question the handicapper as to why he has dropped Roshina a very generous 5lbs for that run. She steps back in trip to seven furlongs today but had no problem keeping tabs with good horses last time, briefly tapped for toe and caught in a pocket before she stayed on for third. It has to be remembered that she had a lot more experience than those horses, but her new handicap mark looks like one she can win off if we sift through her Irish form. There is also the hope that she will come on for that run in terms of fitness.
She is drawn one today and I'm hoping Ian Mongan again keeps her fairly prominent, keeps things simple and sends her on coming around the home turn. Lady Kent, the favourite, looks the danger and on their recent form I would have it between the pair. In an eight runner race with three places paid, she looks a great value bet at 11/2. I don't expect the price to last so get on early.
Members, keep an eye out for the next installment of our Cheltenham ante post portfolio later today!
Best Recommendation:
4.10 Lingfield Roshina, 3pts each-way @ 11/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) E/W 3rd
Monday February 21st
A nice each-way third on Saturday with the well supported England running on for third.
Poor stuff today and just one bet.
Granny McPhee looks like a horse on the improve and she ran into a similar sort last time out when going down to Franco Is My Name, running 8lb above her handicap mark into the bargain. She has no problem with today's conditions and the booking of Robert Winston looks like a positive. She is inclined to start slowly but odds of 2/1 looks like fair value for her to overcome any wayward tendencies.
Best Recommendation:
4.55 Wolves Granny McPhee 5pts win @ 2/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) WON
Poor stuff today and just one bet.
Granny McPhee looks like a horse on the improve and she ran into a similar sort last time out when going down to Franco Is My Name, running 8lb above her handicap mark into the bargain. She has no problem with today's conditions and the booking of Robert Winston looks like a positive. She is inclined to start slowly but odds of 2/1 looks like fair value for her to overcome any wayward tendencies.
Best Recommendation:
4.55 Wolves Granny McPhee 5pts win @ 2/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) WON
Saturday February 20th
A fantastic day yesterday with Ginger Jack and Vintage both winning for us.
One bet only for us today.
Nick Littmoden's England looks a fascinating entry for the six furlong maiden at Lingfield. The selection was entered in some good races last summer for his debut, and was sent off a short price under Jamie Spencer for his first run at Yarmouth, in a Novice Stakes which has worked out well. He looked pretty green on all his three runs in maidens, which were all hot races contested by horses who have gone on to better things. Two things interest me. Firstly, he plainly looked like a horse who needed more time to fill out his frame, he is a big enough horse who travelled fairly well before weakening in all three starts. Secondly, he didn't seem to be in love with the good / good to firm ground he raced on, on all three occasions. He has yet to be involved in a finish and I just thought he wasn't letting himself down as he should be. Being out of Bertolini, he should be suited by artificial surfaces and the more forgiving nature of polytrack should allow him to let himself down better and stretch out into his full stride today.
The Littmoden stable look braced for a better season this year. They did really well on the all weather a few years back and had some good horses but Nick got more into breeding and selling horses when he realised the prize money in the UK was so poor. However, reports are that he has been bitten by the bug again and is set to concentrate more on training again. The evidence is already there: Valkyrie has been running well for the stable, and Kindlelight Sun won for them first time out at the end of January. Alternative Choice was quietly backed for them yesterday, coming back off a break, and ran really well in third, beaten three quarters of a length. Neil Callan has a 16% strike rate for them in the last five seasons and is booked today. Stall two looks a perfect draw and I hope he makes all.
The opposition look average. Two of the older horses can be discounted straight away, the third, Trading Nation, will need to improve to take a hand in my opinion. Mint Whip and Takajan look OR mid 60's types to me and will again need to improve to win. Pippbrook Minster is favourite, but a strong pace fell apart into her lap last time out and she also raced on a sweet spot of ground where a few winners came from on that day - on that basis I think she is too short, although open to improvement, at around 6/4. Penrod Ballantyne is the danger for me, he travels well and will be suited by the step back to 6f. He looks a bit quirky though, he had to be ridden and was given a couple of backhanders around the home turn at Wolves last time out, and he is drawn no better today in stall eight of eight.
England looks good value at 10/1, he could be a cut above these and the price looks too big. I've had a decent each-way bet.
Best Recommendation:
4.30 Lingfield England, 3pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed and take early price now) E/W 3rd
One bet only for us today.
Nick Littmoden's England looks a fascinating entry for the six furlong maiden at Lingfield. The selection was entered in some good races last summer for his debut, and was sent off a short price under Jamie Spencer for his first run at Yarmouth, in a Novice Stakes which has worked out well. He looked pretty green on all his three runs in maidens, which were all hot races contested by horses who have gone on to better things. Two things interest me. Firstly, he plainly looked like a horse who needed more time to fill out his frame, he is a big enough horse who travelled fairly well before weakening in all three starts. Secondly, he didn't seem to be in love with the good / good to firm ground he raced on, on all three occasions. He has yet to be involved in a finish and I just thought he wasn't letting himself down as he should be. Being out of Bertolini, he should be suited by artificial surfaces and the more forgiving nature of polytrack should allow him to let himself down better and stretch out into his full stride today.
The Littmoden stable look braced for a better season this year. They did really well on the all weather a few years back and had some good horses but Nick got more into breeding and selling horses when he realised the prize money in the UK was so poor. However, reports are that he has been bitten by the bug again and is set to concentrate more on training again. The evidence is already there: Valkyrie has been running well for the stable, and Kindlelight Sun won for them first time out at the end of January. Alternative Choice was quietly backed for them yesterday, coming back off a break, and ran really well in third, beaten three quarters of a length. Neil Callan has a 16% strike rate for them in the last five seasons and is booked today. Stall two looks a perfect draw and I hope he makes all.
The opposition look average. Two of the older horses can be discounted straight away, the third, Trading Nation, will need to improve to take a hand in my opinion. Mint Whip and Takajan look OR mid 60's types to me and will again need to improve to win. Pippbrook Minster is favourite, but a strong pace fell apart into her lap last time out and she also raced on a sweet spot of ground where a few winners came from on that day - on that basis I think she is too short, although open to improvement, at around 6/4. Penrod Ballantyne is the danger for me, he travels well and will be suited by the step back to 6f. He looks a bit quirky though, he had to be ridden and was given a couple of backhanders around the home turn at Wolves last time out, and he is drawn no better today in stall eight of eight.
England looks good value at 10/1, he could be a cut above these and the price looks too big. I've had a decent each-way bet.
Best Recommendation:
4.30 Lingfield England, 3pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed and take early price now) E/W 3rd
Friday February 19th
We were really unlucky with Magic Millie failing to get up under her inexperienced rider yesterday and she is one to follow.
One of those days today that has thrown up four bets. We are very confident of returns today - we have outlaid 19pts.
In the 1m5f handicap at Lingfield, Nelson Vettori looks excellent value against some moderate opponents at 9/2. He shaped really well after a long break three weeks ago in a maiden in which the horse who finished behind him has won since. The selection is bred to improve with time and distance and if he has come on for his reappearance run, he looks the type physically who is open to improvement. He was given a quiet, patient ride last time and didn't get the best of runs. The extra furlong today will suit perfectly and if Steve Drowne makes a little more use of him, his stamina can win the day.
Vintage looks a knocking bet in the six furlong sprint. He was almost maximum material when he was entered at Kempton a week or so ago but he was declared a non runner that morning. The visual evidence of his last run suggests he is ready to win dropped back to his favourite trip and he is perfectly drawn to stalk Fromsong here. He has attracted support this morning but 7/2 is still good value.
Ginger Jack was an 11/8 shot in my book this morning so odds of 2/1 on the Mark Johnston improver look worth taking this morning. The selection won a decent looking maiden at Kempton last time and is in here off a fair mark. The second has gone and won since, and the Elsworth second string who showed promise has since gone and won a half decent maiden by eight lengths. If the selection continues to improve here, he is a big price at 2/1.
Premio Loco looks the call in the 6.15 at Meydan and is a good each-way price at 10/1. The selection ran an excellent race on his reappearance, blowing up in the straight before staying on again into fifth in the closing stages. It has been reported that he needed that run badly, and I think he is the best horse in this race over tonights conditions. 10/1 is an underestimation of his talents.
Best Recommendation:
1.25 Lingfield Nelson Vettori, 4pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)
3.30 Lingfield Vintage, 5pts win @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) WON
4.10 Lingfield Ginger Jack, 6pts win @ 2/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) WON
6.00 Meydan Premio Loco, 2pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
One of those days today that has thrown up four bets. We are very confident of returns today - we have outlaid 19pts.
In the 1m5f handicap at Lingfield, Nelson Vettori looks excellent value against some moderate opponents at 9/2. He shaped really well after a long break three weeks ago in a maiden in which the horse who finished behind him has won since. The selection is bred to improve with time and distance and if he has come on for his reappearance run, he looks the type physically who is open to improvement. He was given a quiet, patient ride last time and didn't get the best of runs. The extra furlong today will suit perfectly and if Steve Drowne makes a little more use of him, his stamina can win the day.
Vintage looks a knocking bet in the six furlong sprint. He was almost maximum material when he was entered at Kempton a week or so ago but he was declared a non runner that morning. The visual evidence of his last run suggests he is ready to win dropped back to his favourite trip and he is perfectly drawn to stalk Fromsong here. He has attracted support this morning but 7/2 is still good value.
Ginger Jack was an 11/8 shot in my book this morning so odds of 2/1 on the Mark Johnston improver look worth taking this morning. The selection won a decent looking maiden at Kempton last time and is in here off a fair mark. The second has gone and won since, and the Elsworth second string who showed promise has since gone and won a half decent maiden by eight lengths. If the selection continues to improve here, he is a big price at 2/1.
Premio Loco looks the call in the 6.15 at Meydan and is a good each-way price at 10/1. The selection ran an excellent race on his reappearance, blowing up in the straight before staying on again into fifth in the closing stages. It has been reported that he needed that run badly, and I think he is the best horse in this race over tonights conditions. 10/1 is an underestimation of his talents.
Best Recommendation:
1.25 Lingfield Nelson Vettori, 4pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)
3.30 Lingfield Vintage, 5pts win @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) WON
4.10 Lingfield Ginger Jack, 6pts win @ 2/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) WON
6.00 Meydan Premio Loco, 2pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Thursday February 18th
Two bets today and an outlay of eight points, which is not overly big for us. A winner puts us ahead for the week after two disappointing days so far.
In the 1.50 at Southwell, Magic Millie sticks out a mile as a horse who was bred to go on this surface, if ever their was one. She showed very little as a two year old but did put in a good performance first time out at Doncaster in a decent maiden. She is fairly scopey and looks like a galloping type who will be suited by this surface. Her stable have been knocking in winners left right and centre, including over this course and distance with this young jockey. If she turns up fit and ready to run, she could be very well in off a mark of 50 and might have the beating of this moderate bunch.
In the last contest of the day at Kempton, Clive Brittain's Barlaman is given another chance to show improvement from his Godolphin days. He pulled far too hard last time over a mile and the step back to six furlongs, in hindsight, looks a good call. He likes to race prominently and he is drawn best of all here in stall eight, and I reckon his jockey will try to bag an early lead and keep it all the way to the finish. Physically, he is a magnificant looking horse but he has only shown glimpses of what he can do so far, in my view. Clive Brittain does so well with this type of horse, and 8/1 looks a big price.
Best Recommendation:
1.50 Southwell Magic Millie, 4pts win @ 12/1 (Betfred, guaranteed)
8.30 Kempton Barlaman, 4pts win @ 13/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)
In the 1.50 at Southwell, Magic Millie sticks out a mile as a horse who was bred to go on this surface, if ever their was one. She showed very little as a two year old but did put in a good performance first time out at Doncaster in a decent maiden. She is fairly scopey and looks like a galloping type who will be suited by this surface. Her stable have been knocking in winners left right and centre, including over this course and distance with this young jockey. If she turns up fit and ready to run, she could be very well in off a mark of 50 and might have the beating of this moderate bunch.
In the last contest of the day at Kempton, Clive Brittain's Barlaman is given another chance to show improvement from his Godolphin days. He pulled far too hard last time over a mile and the step back to six furlongs, in hindsight, looks a good call. He likes to race prominently and he is drawn best of all here in stall eight, and I reckon his jockey will try to bag an early lead and keep it all the way to the finish. Physically, he is a magnificant looking horse but he has only shown glimpses of what he can do so far, in my view. Clive Brittain does so well with this type of horse, and 8/1 looks a big price.
Best Recommendation:
1.50 Southwell Magic Millie, 4pts win @ 12/1 (Betfred, guaranteed)
8.30 Kempton Barlaman, 4pts win @ 13/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Wednesday February 17th
Glad we didn't go in large yesterday with no return from 8pts outlayed.
We have one bet for today. Just a word that I've also had a small yankee on all four of Barney Curley's representatives at Lingfield today with Stan James. He is usually up to something when he sends four to the races and I've had that little bet to join in the fun.
In the two mile race at Lingfield, I had looked at a speculative bet on Bold Adventure at around 16/1, but was shocked to see it was priced up at 6/1 with Betfred early this morning and is now as low as 3/1. He did come to hand this time last year but he did not run well last time at all and is not one to trust at such a short price. Valkyrie looks more solid but there is one at a big price who could outrun them both.
The lightly raced Captain Flack represents a stable who are not averse to sending the odd winner out at this time of year. They have taken the trouble to book an in form, in demand jockey in Jim Crowley (1-5 for the stable) and they have a decent level stakes profit at this track. The selection now has an all weather record of 10,1,3 which is better than most of this lot could hope to achieve. He won a little seller over 12f here last summer before running a most interesting race at Wolves a couple of months later over the same trip. Outpaced halfway down the back straight and detatched in rear, he wound up staying on very well to challenge the winner and runner up, finishing a length down in third place. There is a certain amount of stamina in his pedigree, but from what he has showed on the track thus far, he is an out and out stayer and should relish this step up to two miles. Although fitness has to be taken on trust, 16/1 looks a big price in a very poor race.
Best Recommendation:
2.30 Lingfield Captain Flack, 3pts e/w @ 16/1 (Generally)
We have one bet for today. Just a word that I've also had a small yankee on all four of Barney Curley's representatives at Lingfield today with Stan James. He is usually up to something when he sends four to the races and I've had that little bet to join in the fun.
In the two mile race at Lingfield, I had looked at a speculative bet on Bold Adventure at around 16/1, but was shocked to see it was priced up at 6/1 with Betfred early this morning and is now as low as 3/1. He did come to hand this time last year but he did not run well last time at all and is not one to trust at such a short price. Valkyrie looks more solid but there is one at a big price who could outrun them both.
The lightly raced Captain Flack represents a stable who are not averse to sending the odd winner out at this time of year. They have taken the trouble to book an in form, in demand jockey in Jim Crowley (1-5 for the stable) and they have a decent level stakes profit at this track. The selection now has an all weather record of 10,1,3 which is better than most of this lot could hope to achieve. He won a little seller over 12f here last summer before running a most interesting race at Wolves a couple of months later over the same trip. Outpaced halfway down the back straight and detatched in rear, he wound up staying on very well to challenge the winner and runner up, finishing a length down in third place. There is a certain amount of stamina in his pedigree, but from what he has showed on the track thus far, he is an out and out stayer and should relish this step up to two miles. Although fitness has to be taken on trust, 16/1 looks a big price in a very poor race.
Best Recommendation:
2.30 Lingfield Captain Flack, 3pts e/w @ 16/1 (Generally)
Tuesday February 16th
Three interests at Southwell today after a no bets day yesterday. We ended last week nicely in profit and hopefully more of the same this week.
In the 2.30 maiden at Southwell, there looks a bit of value to be had in the shape of the outsider of the bunch, Shame The Devil. He looks like going off any price you like on the exchanges, but this does not looks a strong race. The selection travelled well and showed up prominently for a long way on his all weather debut over ten furlongs before fading into fifth. Many of these look poor and/or look short enough on what they have achieved, and a minimum stakes bet at a guaranteed price is the call, in the hope of a place at least.
Zaffirelli is worth a small wager in the seller at 3.00. She represents Mick Quinn whose stable have been turning the corner just recently and has winning form at the track, as well as winning form at today's 7f trip. Obe Gold must be knackered by now and didn't run too well yesterday, and I don't think Flores Sea is an 11/10 shot having been turned over in this grade so many times. Madison Belle is attractively priced but Zaffirelli has fewest questions to answer here and is better than a 9/1 shot.
Final bet is Toby Tyler in the mile handicap at 3.30 He has won on both his seasonal reappearances thus far and needed every yard of 7f to win here this time last year. He did not go on as expected after that, but he looks well handicapped and is too big at 11/1 if he is ready to go first time out. A strong pace should mean this is set up for him and he looks the bet of the day.
Best Recommendation:
2.30 Southwell Shame The Devil, 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
3.00 Southwell Zaffirelli, 2pts win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
3.30 Southwell Toby Tyler, 2pts e/w @ 11/1 (Boylesports, guaranteed)
In the 2.30 maiden at Southwell, there looks a bit of value to be had in the shape of the outsider of the bunch, Shame The Devil. He looks like going off any price you like on the exchanges, but this does not looks a strong race. The selection travelled well and showed up prominently for a long way on his all weather debut over ten furlongs before fading into fifth. Many of these look poor and/or look short enough on what they have achieved, and a minimum stakes bet at a guaranteed price is the call, in the hope of a place at least.
Zaffirelli is worth a small wager in the seller at 3.00. She represents Mick Quinn whose stable have been turning the corner just recently and has winning form at the track, as well as winning form at today's 7f trip. Obe Gold must be knackered by now and didn't run too well yesterday, and I don't think Flores Sea is an 11/10 shot having been turned over in this grade so many times. Madison Belle is attractively priced but Zaffirelli has fewest questions to answer here and is better than a 9/1 shot.
Final bet is Toby Tyler in the mile handicap at 3.30 He has won on both his seasonal reappearances thus far and needed every yard of 7f to win here this time last year. He did not go on as expected after that, but he looks well handicapped and is too big at 11/1 if he is ready to go first time out. A strong pace should mean this is set up for him and he looks the bet of the day.
Best Recommendation:
2.30 Southwell Shame The Devil, 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
3.00 Southwell Zaffirelli, 2pts win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
3.30 Southwell Toby Tyler, 2pts e/w @ 11/1 (Boylesports, guaranteed)
Saturday February 13th
Triskaidekaphobia was just run out of a place last night, Starburst was sent off 9/4 but couldn't get in it, and Flowing Cape no showed, but what about Flipando? I had considered a saver given the price, because it really grabbed me that they were running him over that sort of trip, and that they booked Graham Gibbons, who rode Orpsie Boy the last twice but switched his allegience. He was sent off 25/1, I dread to think what the betfair S.P. was, and his performance was flawless. Indeed it is one of the best sprinting performances I've ever seen at Wolves, even though the race was set up for him. July Cup next for him then!
On to a massive Saturday for us.
Our first bet comes in the Novice Chase at Warwick, where we're going to support the talented King Edmund on an each-way basis. Let us examine the facts. He was a half decent hurdler who was always intended as a chaser, and he has had one run over fences, jumping excellently and winning well. He has had a lovely, trouble free, light campaign. A second over hurdles up against The Betchworth Kid (12/1 - 14/1 for the Albert Bartlett) preceded that chase debut where he posted an RPR of 141, against some big names albeit the race has not worked out. Everything about the horse was likeable, he got three or four cracks of the whip up the run in, put his head down and responded, and lengthened. What price would a horse representing Alan King or Paul Nicholls, with this profile, be for today's race? At a rough estimate I'd say 11/2, given the strength of the favourite.
However, I'm not going to be afraid of a favourite who steps back a full mile in trip, and who jumped badly when winning last time out. He could have the engine of an SR-71 for all I care, it's a jumping game and I'll take him on at odds of 1/2. The Nicholls horse looks a good sort too, but he had a hard race in the Irish Arkle, running well below his rating, and you have to wonder whether he is ready for a decent race like this today. King Edmund will be 100% ready for this, and if he jumps as well as he did at Plumpton, he is an excellent each way proposition with 5 runners.
On to Wolves this evening. Simon Walker takes the ride on Colonel Sherman, who looked rejuvenated last time out when second to Shadelight after running too free over twelve furlongs here. He has always showed plenty of speed and the extended mile today looks ideal for him. Simon Walker is worth at least a few pounds in these apprentice races, and if he can tack him over from stall 10, this race is his for the taking. Colonel Sherman looked a picture at Wolverhampton last time and appeals as the type who might run up a sequence. 11/4 should be snapped up, this will probably go off shorter.
The fillies maiden over an extended mile is an interesting contest. Jewelled is the forecast favourite but it will surprise me if he's good enough to win - he has had enough chances and been beaten by moderate opposition already. The Channon horse could be anything, but generally I try to avoid backing newcomers - you never know what you're going to get. The horse is listed as owned by Norman Court stud, who to date as far as I can see have had only moderate 60-70 types with Channon. Forever Fong looks good on paper but his stable are out of form and are not associated with debut winners. The three older horses rated between 37 and 45 I can't have. Which leaves the two interesting ones. Myplacelater ran an extraordinary race on debut, missing the break and having to be ridden, before making plenty of ground out wide and showing good tactical speed in doing so, her efforts eventually taking their toll as she finished one paced. She would be interesting at a price, but it irks me that she is turned out only ten days later. That is not an awful lot of time to overcome that greenness, and I just wonder if she is ready for a heads down battle down the straight on her second start. She may be able to defy her humble breeding (cost 1,800gns) but I don't want to back her at 11/4.
Richard Fahey's Spirited Lady showed nothing on her debut, to the casual observer at least. However, I thought she looked a fairly well put together filly and I like the way she moved in the early part of that contest. She looked green and was, shall we say, heavily restrained in rear by Paul Hanagan when she wanted to get along with things. She lost touch down the home straight, but she may well have needed the experience altogether and should come on a bundle for the run. Three weeks is a long time with a filly of this age and it could be we see a different horse tonight. Her relatives were all rated 73-90 and if she runs anywhere near that she should get in the frame here. She is declared for Southwell on the 16th but I find it interesting Paul Hanagan is already jocked up on stablemate My Mandy - it seems as if this race is the choice for Spirited Lady, rather than three quick runs and a handicap mark. The excellent Barry McHugh claims an invaluable 3lb and she looks good each-way value.
On to our last bet. Benedict Spirit has run better than his handicap mark on both his starts for Dave Evans so far, and he is of interest returned to his best trip of 12f tonight in the last. Cheekpieces, which he has gone close in before, are reapplied tonight and Andrew Heffernan takes over in the plate - he is better than Richard Evans in my view. Drawn three, the selection should be able to set a steady pace and stay on down the straight, barring Maslak setting a ridiculous gallop or something similar. Nothing too complicated here, an obvious bet and the price looks value.
Four horses and a busy day for us, stick to the correct staking as always and get guaranteed prices where possible!
Best Recommendation:
2.15 Warwick King Edmund, 2pts e/w @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
6.20 Wolves Colonel Sherman, 5pts win @ 11/4 (Generally, get guaranteed) NON-RUNNER
8.50 Wolves Spirited Lady, 2pts e/w @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
9.20 Wolves Benedict Spirit, 3pts win @ 8/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed)
On to a massive Saturday for us.
Our first bet comes in the Novice Chase at Warwick, where we're going to support the talented King Edmund on an each-way basis. Let us examine the facts. He was a half decent hurdler who was always intended as a chaser, and he has had one run over fences, jumping excellently and winning well. He has had a lovely, trouble free, light campaign. A second over hurdles up against The Betchworth Kid (12/1 - 14/1 for the Albert Bartlett) preceded that chase debut where he posted an RPR of 141, against some big names albeit the race has not worked out. Everything about the horse was likeable, he got three or four cracks of the whip up the run in, put his head down and responded, and lengthened. What price would a horse representing Alan King or Paul Nicholls, with this profile, be for today's race? At a rough estimate I'd say 11/2, given the strength of the favourite.
However, I'm not going to be afraid of a favourite who steps back a full mile in trip, and who jumped badly when winning last time out. He could have the engine of an SR-71 for all I care, it's a jumping game and I'll take him on at odds of 1/2. The Nicholls horse looks a good sort too, but he had a hard race in the Irish Arkle, running well below his rating, and you have to wonder whether he is ready for a decent race like this today. King Edmund will be 100% ready for this, and if he jumps as well as he did at Plumpton, he is an excellent each way proposition with 5 runners.
On to Wolves this evening. Simon Walker takes the ride on Colonel Sherman, who looked rejuvenated last time out when second to Shadelight after running too free over twelve furlongs here. He has always showed plenty of speed and the extended mile today looks ideal for him. Simon Walker is worth at least a few pounds in these apprentice races, and if he can tack him over from stall 10, this race is his for the taking. Colonel Sherman looked a picture at Wolverhampton last time and appeals as the type who might run up a sequence. 11/4 should be snapped up, this will probably go off shorter.
The fillies maiden over an extended mile is an interesting contest. Jewelled is the forecast favourite but it will surprise me if he's good enough to win - he has had enough chances and been beaten by moderate opposition already. The Channon horse could be anything, but generally I try to avoid backing newcomers - you never know what you're going to get. The horse is listed as owned by Norman Court stud, who to date as far as I can see have had only moderate 60-70 types with Channon. Forever Fong looks good on paper but his stable are out of form and are not associated with debut winners. The three older horses rated between 37 and 45 I can't have. Which leaves the two interesting ones. Myplacelater ran an extraordinary race on debut, missing the break and having to be ridden, before making plenty of ground out wide and showing good tactical speed in doing so, her efforts eventually taking their toll as she finished one paced. She would be interesting at a price, but it irks me that she is turned out only ten days later. That is not an awful lot of time to overcome that greenness, and I just wonder if she is ready for a heads down battle down the straight on her second start. She may be able to defy her humble breeding (cost 1,800gns) but I don't want to back her at 11/4.
Richard Fahey's Spirited Lady showed nothing on her debut, to the casual observer at least. However, I thought she looked a fairly well put together filly and I like the way she moved in the early part of that contest. She looked green and was, shall we say, heavily restrained in rear by Paul Hanagan when she wanted to get along with things. She lost touch down the home straight, but she may well have needed the experience altogether and should come on a bundle for the run. Three weeks is a long time with a filly of this age and it could be we see a different horse tonight. Her relatives were all rated 73-90 and if she runs anywhere near that she should get in the frame here. She is declared for Southwell on the 16th but I find it interesting Paul Hanagan is already jocked up on stablemate My Mandy - it seems as if this race is the choice for Spirited Lady, rather than three quick runs and a handicap mark. The excellent Barry McHugh claims an invaluable 3lb and she looks good each-way value.
On to our last bet. Benedict Spirit has run better than his handicap mark on both his starts for Dave Evans so far, and he is of interest returned to his best trip of 12f tonight in the last. Cheekpieces, which he has gone close in before, are reapplied tonight and Andrew Heffernan takes over in the plate - he is better than Richard Evans in my view. Drawn three, the selection should be able to set a steady pace and stay on down the straight, barring Maslak setting a ridiculous gallop or something similar. Nothing too complicated here, an obvious bet and the price looks value.
Four horses and a busy day for us, stick to the correct staking as always and get guaranteed prices where possible!
Best Recommendation:
2.15 Warwick King Edmund, 2pts e/w @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
6.20 Wolves Colonel Sherman, 5pts win @ 11/4 (Generally, get guaranteed) NON-RUNNER
8.50 Wolves Spirited Lady, 2pts e/w @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
9.20 Wolves Benedict Spirit, 3pts win @ 8/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed)
Friday February 12th
A fantastic day yesterday and only bloomin' Charging Indian, who we backed when winning last time out, deprived us of a perfect day. Miss Christophene ran a cracker and I'm glad we got the 20/1 before Hugh Taylor intervened and his cronies helped back it into a 14/1 S.P. We 8pts profit at 1/4 odds e/w. We took a further 21pts profit with the win of Harting Hill, who definitely had more in the tank, and Eager To Bow (advised 33/1, S.P. 28/1) earned us just over 7pts, for a profit of 36pts on the day, which puts us well ahead for the week and sets us up nicely for the weekend.
Again three interests for today.
Triskaidekaphobia represents the very much underrated Julia Tooth, who does really well with her small string, and with her older sprinters in particular. His record over tonights course and distance reads 7,4,6,1,2,5,11,1,1,6,1,7,5,13,3,8,9,(dsq),12,7,9,9 but if we create a filter to only races where he was drawn in stall 1 or 2, his record becomes 1,1,1,5,3. The 5 represents a race where he came up against one of the few horses in training who has more early speed than him, the Noel Wilson trained Dodaa, and they took each other on for the lead and burnt each other out. Julia is not averse to having big priced winners at this track, indeed I would suggest she is well aware that a couple of her horses, this one included, are one dimensional speedballs, and it seems they can follow a couple of bad runs with a win when they are drawn in the right place. His last win in December came at 33/1 when he pinged the lids and Lingfield and went clear over 5f, just holding on near the finish when tiring. At odds of 25/1, he looks like decent each-way value for a small stake.
In the 6f handicap on the same card, I have to say I'm really surprised at the price of Flowing Cape this morning. The Racing Post forecast has it about right, in my view, at around 5/1 and to be honest I half scratched this fella off my list because I was sure bookmakers would chalk him up at around 9/2 - 5/1, with maybe a touch of 11/2 available with the likes of Sporting Bet - in fairness to them they stick their necks out sometimes where others are more conservative. But the 8/1 freely available is quite simply too big. He is a two time course and distance winner who has been running back into form and has a very good 5lb apprentice booked. Scratch off his last run straight away - he has had three tries on fibresand and bombed out each time. I do just feel he will need things to fall right, so I'm going to play each-way because I think the each-way terms are in our favour. Nine runners, three places, and two back from layoffs, means I think the selection should get into the first three at least. The icing on the cake: we have a 9lb reverse in the weights for a 1/2 length defeat by second favourite Tourist, who reopposes today and is less than half the price of Flowing Cape. Tourist may be more progressive, but on these terms my money is with the Hollinshead horse.
Andrew Balding is pretty good with training stayers, and his Starburst looks the call stepped up to 1m6f tonight, also at Wolves. We don't expect the early 7/2 to last, so take the price - anything around 3/1 or better is decent value in my view. This nicely bred mare looks to be on the improve, and has been crying out for a step up to a staying trip, in my view. She is progressing nicely and recent form suggests to me that she is better than a 65 rated handicapper - I think she could be at least 10lb better in time. We'll have a decent win bet.
Best Recommendations:
5.15 Wolves Triskaidekaphobia, 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Generally - Rocket Ruby has just been announced a non-runner, when markets reform 33/1 will be available, advice is to back the horse then - get guaranteed)
6.45 Wolves Flowing Cape, 2pts e/w @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
7.15 Wolves Starburst, 5pts win @ 7/2 (Betfred, Ladbrokes - guaranteed)
Again three interests for today.
Triskaidekaphobia represents the very much underrated Julia Tooth, who does really well with her small string, and with her older sprinters in particular. His record over tonights course and distance reads 7,4,6,1,2,5,11,1,1,6,1,7,5,13,3,8,9,(dsq),12,7,9,9 but if we create a filter to only races where he was drawn in stall 1 or 2, his record becomes 1,1,1,5,3. The 5 represents a race where he came up against one of the few horses in training who has more early speed than him, the Noel Wilson trained Dodaa, and they took each other on for the lead and burnt each other out. Julia is not averse to having big priced winners at this track, indeed I would suggest she is well aware that a couple of her horses, this one included, are one dimensional speedballs, and it seems they can follow a couple of bad runs with a win when they are drawn in the right place. His last win in December came at 33/1 when he pinged the lids and Lingfield and went clear over 5f, just holding on near the finish when tiring. At odds of 25/1, he looks like decent each-way value for a small stake.
In the 6f handicap on the same card, I have to say I'm really surprised at the price of Flowing Cape this morning. The Racing Post forecast has it about right, in my view, at around 5/1 and to be honest I half scratched this fella off my list because I was sure bookmakers would chalk him up at around 9/2 - 5/1, with maybe a touch of 11/2 available with the likes of Sporting Bet - in fairness to them they stick their necks out sometimes where others are more conservative. But the 8/1 freely available is quite simply too big. He is a two time course and distance winner who has been running back into form and has a very good 5lb apprentice booked. Scratch off his last run straight away - he has had three tries on fibresand and bombed out each time. I do just feel he will need things to fall right, so I'm going to play each-way because I think the each-way terms are in our favour. Nine runners, three places, and two back from layoffs, means I think the selection should get into the first three at least. The icing on the cake: we have a 9lb reverse in the weights for a 1/2 length defeat by second favourite Tourist, who reopposes today and is less than half the price of Flowing Cape. Tourist may be more progressive, but on these terms my money is with the Hollinshead horse.
Andrew Balding is pretty good with training stayers, and his Starburst looks the call stepped up to 1m6f tonight, also at Wolves. We don't expect the early 7/2 to last, so take the price - anything around 3/1 or better is decent value in my view. This nicely bred mare looks to be on the improve, and has been crying out for a step up to a staying trip, in my view. She is progressing nicely and recent form suggests to me that she is better than a 65 rated handicapper - I think she could be at least 10lb better in time. We'll have a decent win bet.
Best Recommendations:
5.15 Wolves Triskaidekaphobia, 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Generally - Rocket Ruby has just been announced a non-runner, when markets reform 33/1 will be available, advice is to back the horse then - get guaranteed)
6.45 Wolves Flowing Cape, 2pts e/w @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
7.15 Wolves Starburst, 5pts win @ 7/2 (Betfred, Ladbrokes - guaranteed)
Thursday February 11th
Unlucky not to finish the day ahead yesterday with Rapid City just failing to get up with his customary late rattle.
On to today.
Miss Christophene boasts a course record of 2,1,1,8,8 and if we restrict that to runs in February, it reads 1,1. The selection has shown a real liking for the fibresand and, after disappointing over hurdles last year, her trainer seems to have settled on a flat career as the right option. She is stepped up three furlongs in trip today, but her run style in the past has suggested she will improve for it, and there are elements of her pedigree which suggest it will be in range. The small stable recently had a big priced winner in Victory Quest, who seemed to come on a bundle for his outing in January, and if Miss Christophene can do the same, she can win this back off her last winning handicap mark.
In the 7.00 at Kempton, Harting Hill looks worthy of support and I would not be surprised if he is sent off shorter. He beats trees last time out, and has to race off 3lb higher, but the manner of his victory was most impressive. He was sent along just behind the lead by George Baker and, after suffering a nightmare passage on the rail, was switched to the outside, picking up well. Baker never got too serious, and when a rival challenged late on, he started to pull away again, suggesting to me that there is further improvement in this five year old. His half brother, owned by the same family and also trained by Tregoning, showed sudden improvement and put in all his best performances aged six, so there is reason to believe this fella is a late developer. Drawn in stall 9, Baker should be able to get a good position and send him on early in the home straight, making use of his stamina. The opposition don't look up to much and the price is value - if he is the horse I think he is, he could be rated 70+ in no time. However, I would like to have a small saver and an cautious eye on Eager To Bow. He represents a stable who have gone through a quiet time, but recently sent out an 8yo with a record of 0,0,0 fresh to win a half decent claimer on his reappearance at Lingfield. This horse has shown next to nothing so far, but the owner has kept some very good horses with Chamings (Take A Bow, Binanti) and it's a wonder she has stuck with this horse. Richard Kingscote comes here for the one ride, and he has a 2-7 strike rate for the stable. The well bred, expensive gelding runs off a plater's mark and could be a danger to all if belatedly showing ability.
Best Recommendation:
4.50 Southwell Miss Christophene, 2pts e/w @ 20/1 (Generally, guaranteed) E/W 2ND
7.00 Kempton Harting Hill, 6pts win @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) WON
7.00 Kempton Eager To Bow, 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Generally, guaranteed) E/W 3RD
36pts profit in one day!
On to today.
Miss Christophene boasts a course record of 2,1,1,8,8 and if we restrict that to runs in February, it reads 1,1. The selection has shown a real liking for the fibresand and, after disappointing over hurdles last year, her trainer seems to have settled on a flat career as the right option. She is stepped up three furlongs in trip today, but her run style in the past has suggested she will improve for it, and there are elements of her pedigree which suggest it will be in range. The small stable recently had a big priced winner in Victory Quest, who seemed to come on a bundle for his outing in January, and if Miss Christophene can do the same, she can win this back off her last winning handicap mark.
In the 7.00 at Kempton, Harting Hill looks worthy of support and I would not be surprised if he is sent off shorter. He beats trees last time out, and has to race off 3lb higher, but the manner of his victory was most impressive. He was sent along just behind the lead by George Baker and, after suffering a nightmare passage on the rail, was switched to the outside, picking up well. Baker never got too serious, and when a rival challenged late on, he started to pull away again, suggesting to me that there is further improvement in this five year old. His half brother, owned by the same family and also trained by Tregoning, showed sudden improvement and put in all his best performances aged six, so there is reason to believe this fella is a late developer. Drawn in stall 9, Baker should be able to get a good position and send him on early in the home straight, making use of his stamina. The opposition don't look up to much and the price is value - if he is the horse I think he is, he could be rated 70+ in no time. However, I would like to have a small saver and an cautious eye on Eager To Bow. He represents a stable who have gone through a quiet time, but recently sent out an 8yo with a record of 0,0,0 fresh to win a half decent claimer on his reappearance at Lingfield. This horse has shown next to nothing so far, but the owner has kept some very good horses with Chamings (Take A Bow, Binanti) and it's a wonder she has stuck with this horse. Richard Kingscote comes here for the one ride, and he has a 2-7 strike rate for the stable. The well bred, expensive gelding runs off a plater's mark and could be a danger to all if belatedly showing ability.
Best Recommendation:
4.50 Southwell Miss Christophene, 2pts e/w @ 20/1 (Generally, guaranteed) E/W 2ND
7.00 Kempton Harting Hill, 6pts win @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) WON
7.00 Kempton Eager To Bow, 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Generally, guaranteed) E/W 3RD
36pts profit in one day!
Wednesday February 10th
Our 25/1 / 33/1 shot Bansha was hammered into an S.P. of 5/1 yesterday, but ran only a fair race and may have bounced. It's always nice to know you're getting the value. Guto stuck on ok but doesn't look like he is back to his best form as of yet.
Three for today and we're confident of profits.
The opening maiden at Lingfield is interesting. The out of form Barry Hills stable have the favourite, a daughter of Galileo who looks open to improvement but rather plodded on when others had cried enough in an average looking maiden at Doncaster last backend. Christmas Coming might have been an each-way bet at 14/1 or so but to price him up at 7/2 or thereabouts is crazy - Betfred were first up at 8am this morning and I think they're responsible for the strange look on this market. The Johnston horse is, of course, a dangerous newcomer but he was bought cheaply and does not look as well bred as some of his stablemates. The eye catcher who sticks out a mile is the well bred Vulcanite. Some of you might think I'm "out of my vulcan mind" recommending a newcomer, but at 7/1 with Paddy Powers and 6/1 generally, he is around twice the odds I expected him to be. Anything down to around 9/2 represents value on this horse. He represents a stable we have followed in maidens all winter, who have been consistently successful in these races and who have been pretty savvy when the money has been down - although some of their marked drifters have gone in too. As a half brother to the likes of Circassian, 1m2f looks the ideal trip at this time of the year, and with some of the better three year olds starting to appear over the coming weeks, chances are this expensive purchase can go a bit and can shine in this moderate contest. A moderate each-way bet looks the call.
Rapid City looks a solid call in the 1.55 handicap. He made a nice debut for Dave Evans last time out and ran 8lbs above his handicap mark. The handicapper has been kind in raising him only a pound, and returned to a trip over which he is a multiple winner, he can go very close here. 11/4 looks fair.
Bennelong makes his debut for Evans today. The trainer has an excellent record with horses having their first start for him, and the underrated Paul Doe again takes the ride (gets the leg up on Rapid City too). This fella has been running in some much better races but needs luck in running as he likes to be held up. I think stablemate I Confess, under 7lb claimer Kevin Lundie, might set a strong pace here and if Doe can send him on at the right time, Bennelong can pick the leaders up late on down the straight.
Best Recommendation:
1.25 Lingfield Vulcanite, 2pts e/w @ 7/1 (Paddy Power, 6/1 generally)
1.55 Lingfield Rapid City, 5pts win @ 11/4 (Generally)
2.55 Lingfield Bennelong, 4pts win @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, 15/2 Generally)
Get guaranteed prices where possible
Three for today and we're confident of profits.
The opening maiden at Lingfield is interesting. The out of form Barry Hills stable have the favourite, a daughter of Galileo who looks open to improvement but rather plodded on when others had cried enough in an average looking maiden at Doncaster last backend. Christmas Coming might have been an each-way bet at 14/1 or so but to price him up at 7/2 or thereabouts is crazy - Betfred were first up at 8am this morning and I think they're responsible for the strange look on this market. The Johnston horse is, of course, a dangerous newcomer but he was bought cheaply and does not look as well bred as some of his stablemates. The eye catcher who sticks out a mile is the well bred Vulcanite. Some of you might think I'm "out of my vulcan mind" recommending a newcomer, but at 7/1 with Paddy Powers and 6/1 generally, he is around twice the odds I expected him to be. Anything down to around 9/2 represents value on this horse. He represents a stable we have followed in maidens all winter, who have been consistently successful in these races and who have been pretty savvy when the money has been down - although some of their marked drifters have gone in too. As a half brother to the likes of Circassian, 1m2f looks the ideal trip at this time of the year, and with some of the better three year olds starting to appear over the coming weeks, chances are this expensive purchase can go a bit and can shine in this moderate contest. A moderate each-way bet looks the call.
Rapid City looks a solid call in the 1.55 handicap. He made a nice debut for Dave Evans last time out and ran 8lbs above his handicap mark. The handicapper has been kind in raising him only a pound, and returned to a trip over which he is a multiple winner, he can go very close here. 11/4 looks fair.
Bennelong makes his debut for Evans today. The trainer has an excellent record with horses having their first start for him, and the underrated Paul Doe again takes the ride (gets the leg up on Rapid City too). This fella has been running in some much better races but needs luck in running as he likes to be held up. I think stablemate I Confess, under 7lb claimer Kevin Lundie, might set a strong pace here and if Doe can send him on at the right time, Bennelong can pick the leaders up late on down the straight.
Best Recommendation:
1.25 Lingfield Vulcanite, 2pts e/w @ 7/1 (Paddy Power, 6/1 generally)
1.55 Lingfield Rapid City, 5pts win @ 11/4 (Generally)
2.55 Lingfield Bennelong, 4pts win @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, 15/2 Generally)
Get guaranteed prices where possible
Tuesday February 9th
Mutajaaser went close at an SP of 11/1 yesterday, touched off by a neck and a short head. We picked up the each way money. Maximus Aurelias was bumped and started to pull hard, losing all chance at that point. Things will drop his way at some stage soon.
Two bets for today.
Bansha has attracted some quiet support this morning and little wonder. He is slowly finding something like meaningful form for Alan Bailey, a trainer whose horses have been running particularly well in the last few days. He is priced up as a no hoper but the racing media seem to have failed to watch the video of his last run, in a better race than this. He raced prominently, taking to the surface, and made a determined bid to make ground on the easy winner rounding the home turn. He made decent progress before fading down the home straight, and on his breeding I find it very interesting that he is stepped back from 14f to a more suitable looking 11f today. His amateur pilot has yet to ride in public as far as I can tell, so this can only a minimum stakes each-way punt, but the selection rates excellent value against some really poor opposition.
The 5f sprint seller looks choc full of early pace. Music Box Express, Spin N Span, and Fasilyanne all tend to try and get on the lead sooner rather than later. If their is a burn up on the front end, I think Guto looks a good bet to pick them up late on. He is dropped markedly in class here and on his day is a better horse than the other closer, Monte Major. The jockey knows him well and 4/1 looks a very big price.
Best Recommendation:
1.50 Southwell Bansha, 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Totesport, Ladbrokes, Coral - still 33/1 with some independents)
2.50 Southwell Guto, 4pts win @ 4/1 (Sporting Bet, Stan James)
Two bets for today.
Bansha has attracted some quiet support this morning and little wonder. He is slowly finding something like meaningful form for Alan Bailey, a trainer whose horses have been running particularly well in the last few days. He is priced up as a no hoper but the racing media seem to have failed to watch the video of his last run, in a better race than this. He raced prominently, taking to the surface, and made a determined bid to make ground on the easy winner rounding the home turn. He made decent progress before fading down the home straight, and on his breeding I find it very interesting that he is stepped back from 14f to a more suitable looking 11f today. His amateur pilot has yet to ride in public as far as I can tell, so this can only a minimum stakes each-way punt, but the selection rates excellent value against some really poor opposition.
The 5f sprint seller looks choc full of early pace. Music Box Express, Spin N Span, and Fasilyanne all tend to try and get on the lead sooner rather than later. If their is a burn up on the front end, I think Guto looks a good bet to pick them up late on. He is dropped markedly in class here and on his day is a better horse than the other closer, Monte Major. The jockey knows him well and 4/1 looks a very big price.
Best Recommendation:
1.50 Southwell Bansha, 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (Totesport, Ladbrokes, Coral - still 33/1 with some independents)
2.50 Southwell Guto, 4pts win @ 4/1 (Sporting Bet, Stan James)
Monday February 8th
Two interests at Wolverhampton today.
In the 4.30 extended nine furlong handicap, Kevin Morgan's Mutajaaser looks a spot of value at 12/1 with Stan James. The selection is well bred and has shown more than a glimmer of promise in four maiden runs to date. He makes his handicap debut today off a very feasible mark of 62 and is well drawn for one who likes to race prominently in stall one. Many of this bunch look exposed and Mutajaaser would not need to improve much on the ratings he has already posted to take a hand in the finish here. He has looked a slow learner, boiling over at the start on one occasion and pulling too hard for is own good a couple of times, expending unnecessary energy to the detriment of his finishing effort. If he keeps his cool today, he can put in an improved performance against a moderate bunch and odds of 12/1 look too big.
Maximus Aurelias looks a big price in the second division of this race. He is 5lbs better off with Make Amends with a length and a half to make up according to Lingfield form, and I would suggest he can reverse it. Firstly, he should strip fitter on this his third run after a break. Then, we have the obvious turnaround at the weights. Also, the fact that the selection put in his best performance to date over this course and distance, and will probably be better suited by this track. Then, we have the visual evidence from Lingfield. Maximus was hassled on the lead but stuck on well once headed and was hampered close home. Make Amends was the "eyecatcher" of the race, but she will need the same amount of luck today to get through the pack as she did last time, thus I reckon she is under priced at 7/1. If Maximus can settle better today, and can overcome a wide draw for a jockey who is 15% on the stable's older horses, then he rated a cracking each-way bet at 14/1. He will have to overcome the in-form Grey Command, but if he sits just off the lead rather than getting involved in a pace war, I think he can do it.
Best Recommendation:
4.30 Wolverhampton Mutajaaser, 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Stan James) E/W 3rd
5.30 Wolverhampton Maximus Aurelias, 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (VC Bet, Bet 365, Ladbrokes)
In the 4.30 extended nine furlong handicap, Kevin Morgan's Mutajaaser looks a spot of value at 12/1 with Stan James. The selection is well bred and has shown more than a glimmer of promise in four maiden runs to date. He makes his handicap debut today off a very feasible mark of 62 and is well drawn for one who likes to race prominently in stall one. Many of this bunch look exposed and Mutajaaser would not need to improve much on the ratings he has already posted to take a hand in the finish here. He has looked a slow learner, boiling over at the start on one occasion and pulling too hard for is own good a couple of times, expending unnecessary energy to the detriment of his finishing effort. If he keeps his cool today, he can put in an improved performance against a moderate bunch and odds of 12/1 look too big.
Maximus Aurelias looks a big price in the second division of this race. He is 5lbs better off with Make Amends with a length and a half to make up according to Lingfield form, and I would suggest he can reverse it. Firstly, he should strip fitter on this his third run after a break. Then, we have the obvious turnaround at the weights. Also, the fact that the selection put in his best performance to date over this course and distance, and will probably be better suited by this track. Then, we have the visual evidence from Lingfield. Maximus was hassled on the lead but stuck on well once headed and was hampered close home. Make Amends was the "eyecatcher" of the race, but she will need the same amount of luck today to get through the pack as she did last time, thus I reckon she is under priced at 7/1. If Maximus can settle better today, and can overcome a wide draw for a jockey who is 15% on the stable's older horses, then he rated a cracking each-way bet at 14/1. He will have to overcome the in-form Grey Command, but if he sits just off the lead rather than getting involved in a pace war, I think he can do it.
Best Recommendation:
4.30 Wolverhampton Mutajaaser, 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Stan James) E/W 3rd
5.30 Wolverhampton Maximus Aurelias, 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (VC Bet, Bet 365, Ladbrokes)
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Saturday February 6th
Three interests for today, all at Lingfield.
In the apprencitce handicap, Dickie Le Davoir looks a solid option in a race with plenty of early pace on. He is liable to start slowly, but the decent apprentice Billy Cray knows him by now and will be alert in the stalls. The selection steps up to seven furlongs, which he has won over in the past, and I think the strongly run race at this distance will suit a horse who always seems to finish fast and late. The selection has a very good record when turned out quickly and is on a very good handicap mark relative to his old form. He has been running well lately and was an eyecatcher at Wolverhampton the other day, suffering a wide trip and still running on for fourth in a better contest than this. The price looks fair. In the same contest, we'll chance a small bet on One Cool Dream on her second start for Peter Hiatt. Hiatt has sent out big priced winners at this track before, and the booking of a very good apprentice takes the eye. It is a speculative bet, but she has offered glimpses in the past that she can win off a mark as low as 57.
In the maiden at 2.00, Yourgolftravel Com is worth a small bet. He pulled hard over one mile in a fair maiden last time out and steps back to seven furlongs today. He is a big, strong, scopey horse and if they try, they could go close to winning this very poor contest. He has been priced up at 25/1 because the bookies reckon he is just out to get a handicap mark today, but they could be in for a shock if he is put in the race. It's a big "if", but Wigham horses have won at big prices before and 25/1 is far too big.
Best Recommendation:
1.25 Lingfield Dickie Le Davoir, 3pts each-way @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
1.25 Lingfield One Cool Dream, 1pt win @ Betfair SP
2.00 Lingfield Yourgolftravel Com, 1pt each-way @ 25/1
In the apprencitce handicap, Dickie Le Davoir looks a solid option in a race with plenty of early pace on. He is liable to start slowly, but the decent apprentice Billy Cray knows him by now and will be alert in the stalls. The selection steps up to seven furlongs, which he has won over in the past, and I think the strongly run race at this distance will suit a horse who always seems to finish fast and late. The selection has a very good record when turned out quickly and is on a very good handicap mark relative to his old form. He has been running well lately and was an eyecatcher at Wolverhampton the other day, suffering a wide trip and still running on for fourth in a better contest than this. The price looks fair. In the same contest, we'll chance a small bet on One Cool Dream on her second start for Peter Hiatt. Hiatt has sent out big priced winners at this track before, and the booking of a very good apprentice takes the eye. It is a speculative bet, but she has offered glimpses in the past that she can win off a mark as low as 57.
In the maiden at 2.00, Yourgolftravel Com is worth a small bet. He pulled hard over one mile in a fair maiden last time out and steps back to seven furlongs today. He is a big, strong, scopey horse and if they try, they could go close to winning this very poor contest. He has been priced up at 25/1 because the bookies reckon he is just out to get a handicap mark today, but they could be in for a shock if he is put in the race. It's a big "if", but Wigham horses have won at big prices before and 25/1 is far too big.
Best Recommendation:
1.25 Lingfield Dickie Le Davoir, 3pts each-way @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
1.25 Lingfield One Cool Dream, 1pt win @ Betfair SP
2.00 Lingfield Yourgolftravel Com, 1pt each-way @ 25/1
Friday February 5th
A profitable day yesterday with Charging Indian winning for us at 9/2. Lindy Lou was disappointing but Timmy Murphy again dropped her out, which is not the way to ride Wincanton. This is a horse who will pop up sooner rather than later, and I also sheel she will be suited by the manic pace of a Cheltenham Festival race. Watch this space.
One bet for today.
Benedict Spirit represents the excellent, in form Dave Evans stable. The selection ran a really nice race at Kempton the other night, setting a fair gallop over ten furlongs before getting caught by a closer near the finish. He was hassled on the lead by a Mark Johnston horse, and it is testament to his performance that the Johnston horse faded out of contention late on. Richard Evans is not my favourite jockey, but he does ride winners and is just about worth his 5lb claim. Benedict Spirit is an uncomplicated ride, Evans will have to bounce him out from stall 8 of 8, cross over and take up a prominent position, hopefully on the rail, kick on from the home turn and hope he doesn't get caught. This is a hot race but there are a few hold up horses in here and I'm happy to play a confirmed front runner with proven stamina at the prices.
Best Recommendation:
6.35 Wolverhampton Benedict Spirit, 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, more 16/1 should be available in due course after 10am)
One bet for today.
Benedict Spirit represents the excellent, in form Dave Evans stable. The selection ran a really nice race at Kempton the other night, setting a fair gallop over ten furlongs before getting caught by a closer near the finish. He was hassled on the lead by a Mark Johnston horse, and it is testament to his performance that the Johnston horse faded out of contention late on. Richard Evans is not my favourite jockey, but he does ride winners and is just about worth his 5lb claim. Benedict Spirit is an uncomplicated ride, Evans will have to bounce him out from stall 8 of 8, cross over and take up a prominent position, hopefully on the rail, kick on from the home turn and hope he doesn't get caught. This is a hot race but there are a few hold up horses in here and I'm happy to play a confirmed front runner with proven stamina at the prices.
Best Recommendation:
6.35 Wolverhampton Benedict Spirit, 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed, more 16/1 should be available in due course after 10am)
Thursday February 4th
It really hasn't been the best of starts to February after our first losing month since April 2009 in January. My reaction to losing runs is always quite a simple one: I work twice as hard and put more hours in, as do the rest of the team. You can rest assured that any tips released over the next weeks will be the result of hours of analysis, even more than we generally put in. Losing runs need to be overcome for everyone's sake, those of you that stick with our long-proven methods will be rewarded.
Charging Indian travelled very well and was well supported in second time blinkers last time out. I think he has a better jockey on board than Bosamcliff and if he turns up the same horse today, he can confirm form with Dave Evans charge. The favourite has won two on the bounce but is unproven here, and the form of his victories looks inferior to what Charging Indian has done recently. 4/1 is too big.
Lindy Lou will probably be seen at Cheltenham is she is the horse I think she is. Her form behind Silk Affair last year is top drawer and highlighted how much raw ability she has. She was a little disappointing last time out but still ran second behind a good horse, and reunited with Timmy Murphy today she can justify favouritism.
"Annoying" Hugh Taylor has again scuppered a big price for us today by tipping Steel Mask in the 4.30 at Southwell. I was looking at an each-way bet at around 20/1 but the prices were snapped up by Hugh's lemmings just after 11.30am. In future, anything at a price will probably be sent early to avoid this happening, meaning we can get the best prices, and analysis will follow later. Three points win at the 16/1 available on Betfair will pay a handsome dividend if the horse wins, and that is the way we'll play. The selection represents a team in red hot form who routinely have big priced winners here, Hugh doesn't mention it, but he looks a very big, scopey horse who should really enjoy six furlongs here, and off a mark of 47 with a decent 7lb claimer riding, he should go close.
Best Recommendation:
2.30 Southwell Charging Indian 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) won @ 9/2
3.20 Wincanton Lindy Lou 6pts win @ 3/1 (Sporting Bet, 11/4 guaranteed generally)
4.30 Southwell Steel Mask, 3pts win @ 17.0 (Betfair only)
Charging Indian travelled very well and was well supported in second time blinkers last time out. I think he has a better jockey on board than Bosamcliff and if he turns up the same horse today, he can confirm form with Dave Evans charge. The favourite has won two on the bounce but is unproven here, and the form of his victories looks inferior to what Charging Indian has done recently. 4/1 is too big.
Lindy Lou will probably be seen at Cheltenham is she is the horse I think she is. Her form behind Silk Affair last year is top drawer and highlighted how much raw ability she has. She was a little disappointing last time out but still ran second behind a good horse, and reunited with Timmy Murphy today she can justify favouritism.
"Annoying" Hugh Taylor has again scuppered a big price for us today by tipping Steel Mask in the 4.30 at Southwell. I was looking at an each-way bet at around 20/1 but the prices were snapped up by Hugh's lemmings just after 11.30am. In future, anything at a price will probably be sent early to avoid this happening, meaning we can get the best prices, and analysis will follow later. Three points win at the 16/1 available on Betfair will pay a handsome dividend if the horse wins, and that is the way we'll play. The selection represents a team in red hot form who routinely have big priced winners here, Hugh doesn't mention it, but he looks a very big, scopey horse who should really enjoy six furlongs here, and off a mark of 47 with a decent 7lb claimer riding, he should go close.
Best Recommendation:
2.30 Southwell Charging Indian 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) won @ 9/2
3.20 Wincanton Lindy Lou 6pts win @ 3/1 (Sporting Bet, 11/4 guaranteed generally)
4.30 Southwell Steel Mask, 3pts win @ 17.0 (Betfair only)
Wednesday February 3rd
One good piece of value around today.
Bally Conn has done really well since joining Martin Hill last season. His form figures since joining Hill are 3,1,1,3,3,1,1,6,6. The first 6 came on his last run last year, in the February, when he was sent off joint favourite for a competitive hurdle but no showed. The fact that he did not appear afterwards for a year suggests there was a problem, or he had simply had enough for the season. The second six represents his recent reappearance, where he ran a really strong race. Settled in rear, he made ground with ease mid race to join the leaders, and he stayed right with them, challenging the well supported winner, until fitness became an issue between the second last and the last. He was not given a hard time once it became obvious he was tired, and he was eventually beaten 35 lengths. Having watched that race, I do not think a mark of 11 is beyond him, indeed I think he can pick up a race or two this year of higher marks than this. If he comes on for his reappearance run 11 days ago, I think he can win today. This race does not look especially competitive and I have to say I think he is very likely to run into a place at least. 18/1 should be taken, we made him an 11/1 shot.
Best Recommendation:
2.30 Exeter Bally Conn, 3pts each-way @ 18/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed)
Bally Conn has done really well since joining Martin Hill last season. His form figures since joining Hill are 3,1,1,3,3,1,1,6,6. The first 6 came on his last run last year, in the February, when he was sent off joint favourite for a competitive hurdle but no showed. The fact that he did not appear afterwards for a year suggests there was a problem, or he had simply had enough for the season. The second six represents his recent reappearance, where he ran a really strong race. Settled in rear, he made ground with ease mid race to join the leaders, and he stayed right with them, challenging the well supported winner, until fitness became an issue between the second last and the last. He was not given a hard time once it became obvious he was tired, and he was eventually beaten 35 lengths. Having watched that race, I do not think a mark of 11 is beyond him, indeed I think he can pick up a race or two this year of higher marks than this. If he comes on for his reappearance run 11 days ago, I think he can win today. This race does not look especially competitive and I have to say I think he is very likely to run into a place at least. 18/1 should be taken, we made him an 11/1 shot.
Best Recommendation:
2.30 Exeter Bally Conn, 3pts each-way @ 18/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed)
Tuesday February 2nd
Two bets for today:
Merrion Tiger is ridden by a 7lb claiming amateur who rides well enough to put in in the better half of riders in this field, he is experienced and knows the selection well having ridden him before. The horse is 4/5 at this track and is on the up and up career wise, as opposed to Lady Pilot who looks that bit more exposed. I like to have a fresh horse for a Southwell marathon and after a month or so off, Merrion Tiger fits that bill. Aaman is a candidate for bouncing, as a younger horse who has just put up the performance of his life to trounce some really bad horses here. He did win for us last week but, having run flat turned out quickly before, he is worth taking on her with another horse who, on this surface, isn't far behind him on his best form.
Barlaman represents Clive Brittain who has had some decent wins here in the past. He sometimes does well with cast offs from other stables and can get one ready after a break. The day I seen Barlaman make his debut for Godolphin, I thought, "here's a stuffy looking galloper of a horse who needs time and will probably enjoy fibresand". He steps up two furlongs, but he is bred for it and I'm not sure why Godolphin didn't race him over further - in fairness, they probably aren't looking for 80-90 rated handicappers, which is what I think this horse might be. Perhaps Brittain can eke out some improvement.
1.30 Southwell Merrion Tiger, 3pts e/w @ 9/1 (Paddy Power - guaranteed) Each-way 2nd
4.30 Southwel Barlaman, 5pts win @ 8/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
Merrion Tiger is ridden by a 7lb claiming amateur who rides well enough to put in in the better half of riders in this field, he is experienced and knows the selection well having ridden him before. The horse is 4/5 at this track and is on the up and up career wise, as opposed to Lady Pilot who looks that bit more exposed. I like to have a fresh horse for a Southwell marathon and after a month or so off, Merrion Tiger fits that bill. Aaman is a candidate for bouncing, as a younger horse who has just put up the performance of his life to trounce some really bad horses here. He did win for us last week but, having run flat turned out quickly before, he is worth taking on her with another horse who, on this surface, isn't far behind him on his best form.
Barlaman represents Clive Brittain who has had some decent wins here in the past. He sometimes does well with cast offs from other stables and can get one ready after a break. The day I seen Barlaman make his debut for Godolphin, I thought, "here's a stuffy looking galloper of a horse who needs time and will probably enjoy fibresand". He steps up two furlongs, but he is bred for it and I'm not sure why Godolphin didn't race him over further - in fairness, they probably aren't looking for 80-90 rated handicappers, which is what I think this horse might be. Perhaps Brittain can eke out some improvement.
1.30 Southwell Merrion Tiger, 3pts e/w @ 9/1 (Paddy Power - guaranteed) Each-way 2nd
4.30 Southwel Barlaman, 5pts win @ 8/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
Monday February 1st
One bet for today.
Mental Reservation represents the Mick Quinlan stable who have been in good form lately, and today's jockey Adam Kirby rode their winner here the other day. The selection was very green on his debut but made a really good impression with the way he travelled through what was a half decent maiden after missing the break by four lengths. He was beaten out of sight in the end but was only a couple of lengths down at the furlong pole and looks certain to appreciate a drop back to that trip today. Physically, he looks an impressive horse and if he comes on for his debut run, he has every chance today in what looks a weakish maiden.
I had planned on a much bigger bet on this horse, but Hugh Taylor has intervened and the early 25/1 which we were about to take was swallowed up quickly. He still represents value at this price, but two points each-way is all I'm prepared to stake at 12/1.
Best Recommendation:
5.20 Wolves Mental Reservation, 2pts each-way @ 12/1 Generally, get guaranteed)
Mental Reservation represents the Mick Quinlan stable who have been in good form lately, and today's jockey Adam Kirby rode their winner here the other day. The selection was very green on his debut but made a really good impression with the way he travelled through what was a half decent maiden after missing the break by four lengths. He was beaten out of sight in the end but was only a couple of lengths down at the furlong pole and looks certain to appreciate a drop back to that trip today. Physically, he looks an impressive horse and if he comes on for his debut run, he has every chance today in what looks a weakish maiden.
I had planned on a much bigger bet on this horse, but Hugh Taylor has intervened and the early 25/1 which we were about to take was swallowed up quickly. He still represents value at this price, but two points each-way is all I'm prepared to stake at 12/1.
Best Recommendation:
5.20 Wolves Mental Reservation, 2pts each-way @ 12/1 Generally, get guaranteed)
Friday, February 5, 2010
Saturday January 30th
One bet for today which we think is really overpriced.
Pete's Passion represents the Richard Fahey / Paul Hanagan combination who were so successful last flat season and ended up having their best year ever. They went through an average patch after, I reckon Fahey let the horses down, so to speak, for a few months in order to preserve their longevity as racehorses - something many trainers do. However, four of his last nine representatives have won, and it appears to me as though they're striking form again - a monkey could see that.
As for the selection, she is a very well bred daughter of Rock Of Gibraltar. She is related to some classy sorts, and is a half sister to Mick Channon's Kalam Daleel, who posted an RPR of 90 second time out when winning by 15 lengths at Brighton. She cost 40,000 guineas at the sales and on paper looks a lot better than any of these. She was sent off 9/2 and strong in the market for a good York maiden last July, but pulled too hard and would not let herself down on the ground, eventually fading into what amounts into a virtual no show on the ratings.
So, we're taking a chance with this horse but I think she should appreciate the kinder surface today, and if Fahey has readied her to win first time after a break (I can't see any other motivation for running her for the second time at this time of year) then she can at the very least run into a place against what will become 55-65 rated modest handicappers. 20/1 is way overpriced in my view, 9/1 is what I had chalked up, and if this race was in midsummer when the Fahey stable were taking all before them, she would be an 8/1 shot early doors. I'm having a decent each-way bet.
Best Recommendation:
1.40 Lingfield Pete's Passion, 3pts e/w @ 20/1 (Betfred, Bet 365 - guaranteed)
Pete's Passion represents the Richard Fahey / Paul Hanagan combination who were so successful last flat season and ended up having their best year ever. They went through an average patch after, I reckon Fahey let the horses down, so to speak, for a few months in order to preserve their longevity as racehorses - something many trainers do. However, four of his last nine representatives have won, and it appears to me as though they're striking form again - a monkey could see that.
As for the selection, she is a very well bred daughter of Rock Of Gibraltar. She is related to some classy sorts, and is a half sister to Mick Channon's Kalam Daleel, who posted an RPR of 90 second time out when winning by 15 lengths at Brighton. She cost 40,000 guineas at the sales and on paper looks a lot better than any of these. She was sent off 9/2 and strong in the market for a good York maiden last July, but pulled too hard and would not let herself down on the ground, eventually fading into what amounts into a virtual no show on the ratings.
So, we're taking a chance with this horse but I think she should appreciate the kinder surface today, and if Fahey has readied her to win first time after a break (I can't see any other motivation for running her for the second time at this time of year) then she can at the very least run into a place against what will become 55-65 rated modest handicappers. 20/1 is way overpriced in my view, 9/1 is what I had chalked up, and if this race was in midsummer when the Fahey stable were taking all before them, she would be an 8/1 shot early doors. I'm having a decent each-way bet.
Best Recommendation:
1.40 Lingfield Pete's Passion, 3pts e/w @ 20/1 (Betfred, Bet 365 - guaranteed)
Friday January 29th
Aaman won by half the track yesterday, he is an improving horse with a decent future and 5/2 was made to look a bargain price so impressive was his win.
Two for today, with Evident Pride a confident choice in the 1.40 at Lingfield. He is approaching peak for these last few runs and his eye catching effort over a trip which stretches him in a very good race last time suggests he is on very good terms with himself and ready to win. I give him an equal chance of winning this as the favourite Mister Green and his speed figures at this track look the best on offer. 11/2 is a big price.
I am also confident about the chances of Tropical Blue in the 7.10 at Wolverhampton. He travelled really well, suffered a troubled passage, and ran right out all the way to the line last time at this track over 1m6f. On that evidence, he should stay tonight's two mile trip standing on his head. Indeed, I think he is more likely to stay than Dreamwalk, and with the rest of these looking exposed, and the form of Tropical Blue's last performance here working out very well, I think 11/2 represents excellent value.
We will also have a 1pt win double.
Best Recommendation:
1.40 Lingfield Evident Pride, 5pts win @ 11/2 (Stan James, guaranteed, Skybet)
7.10 Wolves Tropical Blue 5pts win @ 11/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)
1pt win double @ 11/2, 11/2 (Stan James, guaranteed)
Two for today, with Evident Pride a confident choice in the 1.40 at Lingfield. He is approaching peak for these last few runs and his eye catching effort over a trip which stretches him in a very good race last time suggests he is on very good terms with himself and ready to win. I give him an equal chance of winning this as the favourite Mister Green and his speed figures at this track look the best on offer. 11/2 is a big price.
I am also confident about the chances of Tropical Blue in the 7.10 at Wolverhampton. He travelled really well, suffered a troubled passage, and ran right out all the way to the line last time at this track over 1m6f. On that evidence, he should stay tonight's two mile trip standing on his head. Indeed, I think he is more likely to stay than Dreamwalk, and with the rest of these looking exposed, and the form of Tropical Blue's last performance here working out very well, I think 11/2 represents excellent value.
We will also have a 1pt win double.
Best Recommendation:
1.40 Lingfield Evident Pride, 5pts win @ 11/2 (Stan James, guaranteed, Skybet)
7.10 Wolves Tropical Blue 5pts win @ 11/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)
1pt win double @ 11/2, 11/2 (Stan James, guaranteed)
Thursday January 28th
Our 25/1 shot Ceto did us proud yesterday, running second after missing the break, which cost him the win. I think if he had had another run under his belt, he'd have won the race, but the each-way money was landed. Absa Lutte needs 6f these days I reckon, and Tealing disappointed.
In the 6f seller, course and distance winner King's Ace looks overpriced on the basis of decent performances in better company recently. On his penultimate run, he acquitted himself well behind to 70-rated horses, and last time out he was upsides the course specialist Madison Belle (a 70 horse at her best in my view) after six of the seven furlongs, having pulled for his head under restraint during the race. The step back to 6f is ideal for him today and I think a reproduction of that last run will see him go close to winning this.
Aaman sticks out a mile in the 1m6f handicap as the most progressive horse in the field. Visual evidence suggests this big grey hits the ground quite hard and I think fibresand will suit him - his sire Dubai Destination's progeny do very well on artificial surfaces. 5/2 is fair against a moderate bunch but make sure to get guaranteed.
Two for today.
2.45 Southwell King's Ace 4pts win @ 9.2 (Betfair - Lay to save stake at 6/4 in running)
4.20 Southwell Aaman 5pts win @ 5/2 (Generally, guaranteed) WON 16 lengths!
In the 6f seller, course and distance winner King's Ace looks overpriced on the basis of decent performances in better company recently. On his penultimate run, he acquitted himself well behind to 70-rated horses, and last time out he was upsides the course specialist Madison Belle (a 70 horse at her best in my view) after six of the seven furlongs, having pulled for his head under restraint during the race. The step back to 6f is ideal for him today and I think a reproduction of that last run will see him go close to winning this.
Aaman sticks out a mile in the 1m6f handicap as the most progressive horse in the field. Visual evidence suggests this big grey hits the ground quite hard and I think fibresand will suit him - his sire Dubai Destination's progeny do very well on artificial surfaces. 5/2 is fair against a moderate bunch but make sure to get guaranteed.
Two for today.
2.45 Southwell King's Ace 4pts win @ 9.2 (Betfair - Lay to save stake at 6/4 in running)
4.20 Southwell Aaman 5pts win @ 5/2 (Generally, guaranteed) WON 16 lengths!
Wednesday January 27th
We're getting stuck in again today for two very bettable cards and we expect profits.
In the 2.00 6f maiden at Lingfield, Ceto looks very much overpriced at 25/1 with Corals. The selection made his recent debut over 7f here in a maiden which has thrown up two next time out winners and two seconds. He missed the break and pulled too hard mid race, shaping as though he would come on for the experience, fading in the final furlong but beaten only around four lengths. If he is smarter from the stalls today and improves for that run, he has every chance of winning this poor contest - the market principals look very average. Trainer Phil McEntee boasts a respectable 13% strike rate at this course and does particularly well with sprinters. This fella is bred to be half decent over six furlongs at this stage of his career, and 25/1 is much too big.
Proud Linus represents a stable who done well last year and we think he will be up to winning a race soon if not today off his current lenient mark. He showed the first signs last time out that is is ready to see his races out a little better, and if he can settle better in the early stages he has the ability to be much better than a 60 rated handicapper. The step up to seven furlongs is an unknown but he wasn't stopping last time and if he settles for Ryan Powell a shock result could be on the cards. We'll be following this horse in the coming weeks as we think there are a couple of handicaps in him when he gets going.
Absa Lutte looks a nice price for the 5f handicap at Kempton. She has hit a really good run of form and has been very good to us in the last months. Plenty of pace in this race means it should set up nicely for her to finish and if the young jockey can get her out of the stalls lively and tuck her in, she has every chance.
Tealing should appreciate the step back to six furlongs in the handicap at Kempton. Love Delta looks on a high enough mark now for winning some poor races and with many of these likely to be prominent early, I can see a good pace and Tealing should come late to take advantage. He is probably the bet of the day in my opinion.
Best Recommendation:
2.00 Lingfield Ceto, 2pts e/w @ 25/1 (Coral, guaranteed) E/W 2nd
4.30 Lingfield Proud Linus, 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
5.40 Kempton Absa Lutte 4pts win @ 13/2 (Sporting Bet, 6/1 guaranteed generally)
7.10 Kempton Tealing, 4pts win @ 8/1 (Boylesports, guaranteed)
In the 2.00 6f maiden at Lingfield, Ceto looks very much overpriced at 25/1 with Corals. The selection made his recent debut over 7f here in a maiden which has thrown up two next time out winners and two seconds. He missed the break and pulled too hard mid race, shaping as though he would come on for the experience, fading in the final furlong but beaten only around four lengths. If he is smarter from the stalls today and improves for that run, he has every chance of winning this poor contest - the market principals look very average. Trainer Phil McEntee boasts a respectable 13% strike rate at this course and does particularly well with sprinters. This fella is bred to be half decent over six furlongs at this stage of his career, and 25/1 is much too big.
Proud Linus represents a stable who done well last year and we think he will be up to winning a race soon if not today off his current lenient mark. He showed the first signs last time out that is is ready to see his races out a little better, and if he can settle better in the early stages he has the ability to be much better than a 60 rated handicapper. The step up to seven furlongs is an unknown but he wasn't stopping last time and if he settles for Ryan Powell a shock result could be on the cards. We'll be following this horse in the coming weeks as we think there are a couple of handicaps in him when he gets going.
Absa Lutte looks a nice price for the 5f handicap at Kempton. She has hit a really good run of form and has been very good to us in the last months. Plenty of pace in this race means it should set up nicely for her to finish and if the young jockey can get her out of the stalls lively and tuck her in, she has every chance.
Tealing should appreciate the step back to six furlongs in the handicap at Kempton. Love Delta looks on a high enough mark now for winning some poor races and with many of these likely to be prominent early, I can see a good pace and Tealing should come late to take advantage. He is probably the bet of the day in my opinion.
Best Recommendation:
2.00 Lingfield Ceto, 2pts e/w @ 25/1 (Coral, guaranteed) E/W 2nd
4.30 Lingfield Proud Linus, 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
5.40 Kempton Absa Lutte 4pts win @ 13/2 (Sporting Bet, 6/1 guaranteed generally)
7.10 Kempton Tealing, 4pts win @ 8/1 (Boylesports, guaranteed)
Tuesday January 26th
A winner and two seconds from four bets was not enough to give us a positive return yesterday but we broke about even with the win of Henry Cecil's Zerzura, who was a cracking bet at 10/3.
One bet today.
Red Valerian Two represents a trainer whose horses tend to run really well at this track, and his record with 3yo's is particularly impressive, a 12% strike rate returning a positive L.S.P. of ~+21.
The son of Hawk Wing put up an improved performance in a maiden last time out, finishing well having looked green and pricking his ears up the home straight, beaten 10 lengths by a horse who will probably be rated at least 90 in time, and finishing just behind a horse rated 68. I often find that these types of races are the toughest for handicappers to accurately rate, and they often get it wrong. Red Valerian Two has been alloted a mark of 55 and I reckon his trainer is pleased, because in general he trains horses who have the ability to run to at least 70 at their best. Mozayada, Smarty Socks and countless others spring to mind, Midgeley can improve this type of horse and he trains them in such a way that Southwell suits them.
Hawk Wing's progeny are often quirky so I'm not surprised Tony Culhane's professional handling has been called for. Instead of holding him up today, I reckon he will be kept more prominent and allowed to gallop on around the home turn. The opposition look moderate, you always have to be afraid of Mark Johnston's representatives but his horse has acheived little to date. Wedding Dream won well last time but is up 12lb for beating average horses and if the selection is as good as I think, we have every chance of beating her receiving 3lb.
Best Recommendation:
4.20 Southwell Red Valerium Two, 4pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally)
One bet today.
Red Valerian Two represents a trainer whose horses tend to run really well at this track, and his record with 3yo's is particularly impressive, a 12% strike rate returning a positive L.S.P. of ~+21.
The son of Hawk Wing put up an improved performance in a maiden last time out, finishing well having looked green and pricking his ears up the home straight, beaten 10 lengths by a horse who will probably be rated at least 90 in time, and finishing just behind a horse rated 68. I often find that these types of races are the toughest for handicappers to accurately rate, and they often get it wrong. Red Valerian Two has been alloted a mark of 55 and I reckon his trainer is pleased, because in general he trains horses who have the ability to run to at least 70 at their best. Mozayada, Smarty Socks and countless others spring to mind, Midgeley can improve this type of horse and he trains them in such a way that Southwell suits them.
Hawk Wing's progeny are often quirky so I'm not surprised Tony Culhane's professional handling has been called for. Instead of holding him up today, I reckon he will be kept more prominent and allowed to gallop on around the home turn. The opposition look moderate, you always have to be afraid of Mark Johnston's representatives but his horse has acheived little to date. Wedding Dream won well last time but is up 12lb for beating average horses and if the selection is as good as I think, we have every chance of beating her receiving 3lb.
Best Recommendation:
4.20 Southwell Red Valerium Two, 4pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally)
Monday January 25th
Today's card at Wolves looks very bettable and we're going to have a good go at it.
In the opening race, Premier Charge looks a decent price against a strong favourite and some moderate opposition. He pulled very hard last time out against a couple of opponents who were a bit better than
today's opposition and it was only after being hampered near the finish that he gave best. The step back
to 7f could be the answer for him as he clearly possesses a certain amount of speed and is eager to get
on with things. The form of the favourite's win last time out looks average and should he bounce or fail
to follow up, the selection looks a good bet to pick up the pieces.
Henry Cecil's Zerzura was very green first time out but if he comes on for the experience, I think he could
be the best horse in this line up by some way. He has had three weeks or so to tighten up after the debut
run, and although he showed little on his first run, he was easily the best looker in the field and made some good mid race progress before tiring and giving best to some more experienced rivals. This is the kind of bet where he could either blow this lot away or trail in in midfield (if he in fact is a moderate horse) but I think there is ability there, otherwise I could not see Tom Queally riding and Cecil persevering. Wolverhampton may also suit better than Lingfield. Paddy Power's 10/3 is too big.
David Pipe's Estate has every chance of turning around form with Leyte Gulf off 4lb better terms today. The selection should be at peak fitness on his third run after a break, and looks well handicapped on some old form. The absolute crawl last time did not suit his running style, and even a moderately better gallop will see him go closer today.
Andy Haynes has a habit of getting the best out of other trainer's cast offs and he has been feeling his way with the ex-John Best Great Bounder. This fella ran well in a hands and heels race last time out having missed the break and travelled wide all the way, and he stayed on well down Southwell's galloping home straight. The step up in trip should work in his favour today and Tom Queally, who does well for the trainer, takes the ride. 3/1 looks fair.
We're having a good cut at this card, so it is more important than ever that you takes the best prices, get guaranteed prices where possible (especially in the multiples) and stick to the advised staking plans. In fact, this is of the utmost importance pretty much every day!
Best Recommendation:
1.45 Wolves Premier Charge, 3pts win @ 15/2 (VC Bet, guaranteed)
3.30 Lingfield Zerzura, 5pts win @ 10/3 (VC Bet, Paddy Power, guaranteed) WON
4.40 Wolves Estate, 3pts win @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
5.10 Wolves Great Bounder, 5pts win @ 11/4 (Generally, get guaranteed)
In the opening race, Premier Charge looks a decent price against a strong favourite and some moderate opposition. He pulled very hard last time out against a couple of opponents who were a bit better than
today's opposition and it was only after being hampered near the finish that he gave best. The step back
to 7f could be the answer for him as he clearly possesses a certain amount of speed and is eager to get
on with things. The form of the favourite's win last time out looks average and should he bounce or fail
to follow up, the selection looks a good bet to pick up the pieces.
Henry Cecil's Zerzura was very green first time out but if he comes on for the experience, I think he could
be the best horse in this line up by some way. He has had three weeks or so to tighten up after the debut
run, and although he showed little on his first run, he was easily the best looker in the field and made some good mid race progress before tiring and giving best to some more experienced rivals. This is the kind of bet where he could either blow this lot away or trail in in midfield (if he in fact is a moderate horse) but I think there is ability there, otherwise I could not see Tom Queally riding and Cecil persevering. Wolverhampton may also suit better than Lingfield. Paddy Power's 10/3 is too big.
David Pipe's Estate has every chance of turning around form with Leyte Gulf off 4lb better terms today. The selection should be at peak fitness on his third run after a break, and looks well handicapped on some old form. The absolute crawl last time did not suit his running style, and even a moderately better gallop will see him go closer today.
Andy Haynes has a habit of getting the best out of other trainer's cast offs and he has been feeling his way with the ex-John Best Great Bounder. This fella ran well in a hands and heels race last time out having missed the break and travelled wide all the way, and he stayed on well down Southwell's galloping home straight. The step up in trip should work in his favour today and Tom Queally, who does well for the trainer, takes the ride. 3/1 looks fair.
We're having a good cut at this card, so it is more important than ever that you takes the best prices, get guaranteed prices where possible (especially in the multiples) and stick to the advised staking plans. In fact, this is of the utmost importance pretty much every day!
Best Recommendation:
1.45 Wolves Premier Charge, 3pts win @ 15/2 (VC Bet, guaranteed)
3.30 Lingfield Zerzura, 5pts win @ 10/3 (VC Bet, Paddy Power, guaranteed) WON
4.40 Wolves Estate, 3pts win @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
5.10 Wolves Great Bounder, 5pts win @ 11/4 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Saturday January 23rd
A busy Saturday for us.
Christmas Coming retains a Derby entry for the Elsworth stable and is their only representative at the races today. Dane O'Neill has a good strike rate for the yard and they've gambled this horse against good opposition already, on his second start. He showed promise on his first run and pulled hard over a mile on his second start when he was probably still a bit babyish. Third time out he was a well beaten second behind a decent sort over seven furlongs here, but he shapes as if needing a mile now and the step up in trip should see him travel more comfortably today (was rousted on the home turn last time). He pulled 1 1/2 lengths clear of the third that day. I wonder if they were looking for a handicap mark - he was allotted 65 but runs in this fairly weak maiden today which looks ripe for an each-way bet if they think they have an 80+ horse on their hands. He has had a break of a month, and given that he represents a yard whose juveniles are brought along slowly, I expect him to improve on any previous efforts today. He won't have to be much good to win this - the top three in the market were involved in a bunch finish last time - and I think he will run into a place at least.
Kia Kaha looks a great bet for the Peter Marsh chase at Haydock. His form at this course behind Shining Gale looks high quality in my mind, and you can strike off his last run at Cheltenham where he has failed to get in a rhythm twice - that race may also have come too soon. Back over a course and distance which suit perfectly, I think he can go close to winning at rewarding odds. Jaunty Flight is said to be working well and rates the danger.
Sushistan represents Gary Moore and is ridden by George Baker. The team are in flying form and I feel this is the one horse who could be better than this moderate field of everything in the line up. He has been gelded since his last run, and if he improves at all, 9/1 could look big come 4.00pm.
Best Recommendation:
12.35 Lingfield Christmas Coming 3pts e/w @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
3.30 Haydock Kia Kaha 2pts e/w @ 18/1 (Sporting Bet - or take 16/1 guaranteed generally)
3.55 Lingfield Sushistan 2pts e/w @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Christmas Coming retains a Derby entry for the Elsworth stable and is their only representative at the races today. Dane O'Neill has a good strike rate for the yard and they've gambled this horse against good opposition already, on his second start. He showed promise on his first run and pulled hard over a mile on his second start when he was probably still a bit babyish. Third time out he was a well beaten second behind a decent sort over seven furlongs here, but he shapes as if needing a mile now and the step up in trip should see him travel more comfortably today (was rousted on the home turn last time). He pulled 1 1/2 lengths clear of the third that day. I wonder if they were looking for a handicap mark - he was allotted 65 but runs in this fairly weak maiden today which looks ripe for an each-way bet if they think they have an 80+ horse on their hands. He has had a break of a month, and given that he represents a yard whose juveniles are brought along slowly, I expect him to improve on any previous efforts today. He won't have to be much good to win this - the top three in the market were involved in a bunch finish last time - and I think he will run into a place at least.
Kia Kaha looks a great bet for the Peter Marsh chase at Haydock. His form at this course behind Shining Gale looks high quality in my mind, and you can strike off his last run at Cheltenham where he has failed to get in a rhythm twice - that race may also have come too soon. Back over a course and distance which suit perfectly, I think he can go close to winning at rewarding odds. Jaunty Flight is said to be working well and rates the danger.
Sushistan represents Gary Moore and is ridden by George Baker. The team are in flying form and I feel this is the one horse who could be better than this moderate field of everything in the line up. He has been gelded since his last run, and if he improves at all, 9/1 could look big come 4.00pm.
Best Recommendation:
12.35 Lingfield Christmas Coming 3pts e/w @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
3.30 Haydock Kia Kaha 2pts e/w @ 18/1 (Sporting Bet - or take 16/1 guaranteed generally)
3.55 Lingfield Sushistan 2pts e/w @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Friday January 22nd
One bet today, news of our Cheltenham ante post maximum to follow.
Hughie Morrison has been in fine form and he runs Mountain Forest in the two mile handicap, the last contest of the day at Lingfield. The selection has a stamina laden pedigree and I've always thought he would come into his own over extreme distances like he gets today. He also has a bit of tactical speed and I think a sharper track like Lingfield will suit him. I think Prince Charlamagne needs everything to fall right for him to win, Where's Susie looks a false price after Hugh Taylor's intervention and seems to find it hard to win, Coda Agency is back from a break and may need this, and favourite Isle De Maurice is the danger in my book. I think Mountain Forest is bound to improve for the trip, he ran a very decent race at Kempton last time out over twelve furlongs, but was done for toe in a race that developed into a sprint. He is now rated only 45, and it is unlikely Morrison would be persevering with him if he did not think the horse could win a race or two. He has booked a very good lightweight jockey and if Jimmy Quinn can keep him well positioned, I think he is good enough to burn most of these off on the home turn. I'm having a decent each-way bet.
I also looked at Triskaidekaphobia at Wolves at a price, but am happy to stay with the one bet today.
Best Recommendation:
4.15 Lingfield Mountain Forest, 3pts e/w @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Hughie Morrison has been in fine form and he runs Mountain Forest in the two mile handicap, the last contest of the day at Lingfield. The selection has a stamina laden pedigree and I've always thought he would come into his own over extreme distances like he gets today. He also has a bit of tactical speed and I think a sharper track like Lingfield will suit him. I think Prince Charlamagne needs everything to fall right for him to win, Where's Susie looks a false price after Hugh Taylor's intervention and seems to find it hard to win, Coda Agency is back from a break and may need this, and favourite Isle De Maurice is the danger in my book. I think Mountain Forest is bound to improve for the trip, he ran a very decent race at Kempton last time out over twelve furlongs, but was done for toe in a race that developed into a sprint. He is now rated only 45, and it is unlikely Morrison would be persevering with him if he did not think the horse could win a race or two. He has booked a very good lightweight jockey and if Jimmy Quinn can keep him well positioned, I think he is good enough to burn most of these off on the home turn. I'm having a decent each-way bet.
I also looked at Triskaidekaphobia at Wolves at a price, but am happy to stay with the one bet today.
Best Recommendation:
4.15 Lingfield Mountain Forest, 3pts e/w @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Thursday January 21st
Hopefully some of you laid off at odds on last night when Blackburn were 0-2 up, unfortunately they got a man sent off and the game changed, an entertaining 6-4 win for Villa the result. 5/1 was a ridiculous price and it goes down as a good call in my book, regardless of the result.
Two for today.
The booking of Tom Queally for his only ride of the day looks an interesting one for Silk Hall, who is very good on the all weather and represents Alan King, who does well with his stayers even though he is 0-16 in recent years at Wolverhampton. Silk Hall has won twice here after travelling comfortably, and I think the drop back to 12f is unlikely to inconvenience him today. There are question marks over his fitness but the booking of a top jock catches my eye and at odds of 14/1 in this race he is worth a play. Some of the others are not running over their ideal race conditions (Baylini), our maximum from Saturday, included) and I can't see the appeal of the favourite Dance The Star - why is he so short? A small win looks the call.
Blades Harmony represents Ed McMahon in the maiden. He made an eye catching debut at Southwell in a better race than this and he looks a well made three year old judged on that effort. He missed the break before making up ground travelling wide on slow ground over 7f, and he ran very well until fading in the final furlong. He steps back to an easier 6f on Polytrack today and if he breaks better from the stalls he has every chance. The form of the market principals here is pretty poor and his stablemate, the favourite ridden by Jamie Spencer, does not merit the price he is with the bookies. 11/1 is far too big and I'm happy to risk 4pts.
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Best Recommendation:
5.50 Wolves Silk Hall, 2pts win @ 14/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
6.20 Wolves Blades Harmony, 4pts win @ 11/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Two for today.
The booking of Tom Queally for his only ride of the day looks an interesting one for Silk Hall, who is very good on the all weather and represents Alan King, who does well with his stayers even though he is 0-16 in recent years at Wolverhampton. Silk Hall has won twice here after travelling comfortably, and I think the drop back to 12f is unlikely to inconvenience him today. There are question marks over his fitness but the booking of a top jock catches my eye and at odds of 14/1 in this race he is worth a play. Some of the others are not running over their ideal race conditions (Baylini), our maximum from Saturday, included) and I can't see the appeal of the favourite Dance The Star - why is he so short? A small win looks the call.
Blades Harmony represents Ed McMahon in the maiden. He made an eye catching debut at Southwell in a better race than this and he looks a well made three year old judged on that effort. He missed the break before making up ground travelling wide on slow ground over 7f, and he ran very well until fading in the final furlong. He steps back to an easier 6f on Polytrack today and if he breaks better from the stalls he has every chance. The form of the market principals here is pretty poor and his stablemate, the favourite ridden by Jamie Spencer, does not merit the price he is with the bookies. 11/1 is far too big and I'm happy to risk 4pts.
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Best Recommendation:
5.50 Wolves Silk Hall, 2pts win @ 14/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
6.20 Wolves Blades Harmony, 4pts win @ 11/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Wednesday January 20th
A good day yesterday with a winner and a second, and a profit of 20pts minus a small rule 4. Spinning Bailiwick received an excellent ride from the head waiter George Baker and she continues to improve.
The weather has turned the corner to some degree, and I think our form has too, time to start accumulating holiday money!
One bet today, the racing is poor but there is one interesting match tonight.
We opposed Aston Villa on Sunday and those of you who decided to lay collected. They face Blackburn at home tonight after they were fortunate to beat Rovers in the first leg of this competition, and we think 5/1 against Rovers reversing the form is an abomination. They were extremely unlucky in the first game and had some tight decisions go against them. They need to win to at least take this to extra time, and I think they are more like a 10/3 shot that 5/1. I'm happy to have a small bet at what we think is an inflated price.
Best Recommendaiton:
Blackburn Rovers, 3pts win @ 5/1 (Generally)
The weather has turned the corner to some degree, and I think our form has too, time to start accumulating holiday money!
One bet today, the racing is poor but there is one interesting match tonight.
We opposed Aston Villa on Sunday and those of you who decided to lay collected. They face Blackburn at home tonight after they were fortunate to beat Rovers in the first leg of this competition, and we think 5/1 against Rovers reversing the form is an abomination. They were extremely unlucky in the first game and had some tight decisions go against them. They need to win to at least take this to extra time, and I think they are more like a 10/3 shot that 5/1. I'm happy to have a small bet at what we think is an inflated price.
Best Recommendaiton:
Blackburn Rovers, 3pts win @ 5/1 (Generally)
Tuesday, January 19th
Two for today.
R Woody looks best of a moderate bunch here and his recent second suggests he has scope for improvement of this mark. 11/4 looks a fair price.
Spinning Bailiwick is way overpriced at 13/2, indeed the selection is generally available at 6/1 and I make her a 7/2 shot on my tissue. She has racked up a series of wins and is the type that the handicapper struggles to get to grips with - she never wins by too far. I'm happy to have 4pts on at the price and this rates a confident bet.
Best Recommendation:
2.20 Wolves R Woody, 6pts win @ 11/4 (Stan James, Betfred, www.brucebetting.com)
3.50 Wolves Spinning Bailiwick 4pts win @ 13/2 (Sporting Bet) WON
R Woody looks best of a moderate bunch here and his recent second suggests he has scope for improvement of this mark. 11/4 looks a fair price.
Spinning Bailiwick is way overpriced at 13/2, indeed the selection is generally available at 6/1 and I make her a 7/2 shot on my tissue. She has racked up a series of wins and is the type that the handicapper struggles to get to grips with - she never wins by too far. I'm happy to have 4pts on at the price and this rates a confident bet.
Best Recommendation:
2.20 Wolves R Woody, 6pts win @ 11/4 (Stan James, Betfred, www.brucebetting.com)
3.50 Wolves Spinning Bailiwick 4pts win @ 13/2 (Sporting Bet) WON
Monday January 18th
Two bets today.
Graceandgratitude represents the in form Stuart Williams, who is gaining a reputation for being a pretty good trainer of sprinters. The half sister to the selection, Itsher, ran up a sequence during the summer for Williams, after being aimed at a similar Wolves handicap this time last year (hung as if something amiss, S.P. 13/8 fav heavily backed). The selection ran an eye catching race at Kempton over 5f last time, making ground under hands and heels at the finish, in a race where she carried 4lb overweight and met better opponents that she does today. She is drawn well and, on her handicap debut, can leave her recent form behind over a trip which will suit perfectly. Williams seems to have placed the horse well here. The danger is Exceed Power.
Into The Light runs in the 1m4f handicap, the last on the card. He is a speculative selection but he is bred to be suited by middle distances on artificial surfaces. Looking at the video of his second over course and distance, he doesn't seem to be putting it all in and he takes plenty of rousting. I think he may be a fragile sort and indeed his best form has come after a decent break. It is interesting his connections have persevered with him, and they've booked Robert Winston for his reappearance today. Many of this field have questions to answer regarding fitness, track or trip, and there are quite a few hold up horses in here too. Into the Light races prominently, and if he can sit on the pace, I think he is well handicapped enough and will be fit enough to go close to winning today.
Best Recommendation:
2.50 Wolverhampton Graceandgratitude, 4pts win @ 7.2 (Betfair)
5.20 Wolverhampton Into The Light, 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (VC Bet, Stan James - guaranteed)
Graceandgratitude represents the in form Stuart Williams, who is gaining a reputation for being a pretty good trainer of sprinters. The half sister to the selection, Itsher, ran up a sequence during the summer for Williams, after being aimed at a similar Wolves handicap this time last year (hung as if something amiss, S.P. 13/8 fav heavily backed). The selection ran an eye catching race at Kempton over 5f last time, making ground under hands and heels at the finish, in a race where she carried 4lb overweight and met better opponents that she does today. She is drawn well and, on her handicap debut, can leave her recent form behind over a trip which will suit perfectly. Williams seems to have placed the horse well here. The danger is Exceed Power.
Into The Light runs in the 1m4f handicap, the last on the card. He is a speculative selection but he is bred to be suited by middle distances on artificial surfaces. Looking at the video of his second over course and distance, he doesn't seem to be putting it all in and he takes plenty of rousting. I think he may be a fragile sort and indeed his best form has come after a decent break. It is interesting his connections have persevered with him, and they've booked Robert Winston for his reappearance today. Many of this field have questions to answer regarding fitness, track or trip, and there are quite a few hold up horses in here too. Into the Light races prominently, and if he can sit on the pace, I think he is well handicapped enough and will be fit enough to go close to winning today.
Best Recommendation:
2.50 Wolverhampton Graceandgratitude, 4pts win @ 7.2 (Betfair)
5.20 Wolverhampton Into The Light, 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (VC Bet, Stan James - guaranteed)
Sunday January 17th
Our record with maximum bets is pretty much second to none, and we continued the trend yesterday with our 14/1 maximum Baylini taking the each way money home for us. She finished a close second and touched 1.21 in running for those of you who like to trade out of your bets. A monster payout from a 14/1 max would have been just the ticket after our recent middling form, which I put down to the laws of probability and the weather, but the early pace just wasn't quite strong enough - Mafeking didn't bolt clear like he has been recently and I think that's what cost us the win.
You won't find another service advising maximums at double figure prices like we do (a confident bet at something like even money is NEVER a max for me, it doesn't make sense - a max should pay your large risk off handsomely), and I think our strike rate is around 90% for around ten bets in the past year, the lowest price being 9/2 off the top of my head, the highest a 16/1 winner (
Dance Card last August). Controlled aggression in your staking is the path to real profits provided you are selecting the right horses.
On to today.
Two small bets, the first one being West Ham to beat Aston Villa at Villa Park. I priced up the Hammers as a 9/2 shot and 7/1 really surprises me despite their league position. Villa are, for me, the smash-and-grab away experts, but I like taking them on at a short price at home. Some of you might prefer to lay them at around 4/7, but I'll take the 7/1 on the away side and trade later in the game if a suitable opportunity arises.
At Wolves, I can't believe the price on Moscow Oznick in the 1m4f handicap. He was confidently ridden last time out and was well on top at the finish - he is relatively lightly raced and looks like an improving horse in my view. I regularly see horses with this profile go in again at a bigger price than they should, and 7/1 is an insult to his small stable here. (On that note, I was gutted we didn't follow up on Elusive Warrior last time, who won at 9/1 after we had backed him to win (won 8/11 SP) on his previous run!)
Best Recommendation:
West Ham United, 2pts win @ 7/1 (VC Bet)
Moscow Oznick, 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
You won't find another service advising maximums at double figure prices like we do (a confident bet at something like even money is NEVER a max for me, it doesn't make sense - a max should pay your large risk off handsomely), and I think our strike rate is around 90% for around ten bets in the past year, the lowest price being 9/2 off the top of my head, the highest a 16/1 winner (
Dance Card last August). Controlled aggression in your staking is the path to real profits provided you are selecting the right horses.
On to today.
Two small bets, the first one being West Ham to beat Aston Villa at Villa Park. I priced up the Hammers as a 9/2 shot and 7/1 really surprises me despite their league position. Villa are, for me, the smash-and-grab away experts, but I like taking them on at a short price at home. Some of you might prefer to lay them at around 4/7, but I'll take the 7/1 on the away side and trade later in the game if a suitable opportunity arises.
At Wolves, I can't believe the price on Moscow Oznick in the 1m4f handicap. He was confidently ridden last time out and was well on top at the finish - he is relatively lightly raced and looks like an improving horse in my view. I regularly see horses with this profile go in again at a bigger price than they should, and 7/1 is an insult to his small stable here. (On that note, I was gutted we didn't follow up on Elusive Warrior last time, who won at 9/1 after we had backed him to win (won 8/11 SP) on his previous run!)
Best Recommendation:
West Ham United, 2pts win @ 7/1 (VC Bet)
Moscow Oznick, 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
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