A fantastic day yesterday and only bloomin' Charging Indian, who we backed when winning last time out, deprived us of a perfect day. Miss Christophene ran a cracker and I'm glad we got the 20/1 before Hugh Taylor intervened and his cronies helped back it into a 14/1 S.P. We 8pts profit at 1/4 odds e/w. We took a further 21pts profit with the win of Harting Hill, who definitely had more in the tank, and Eager To Bow (advised 33/1, S.P. 28/1) earned us just over 7pts, for a profit of 36pts on the day, which puts us well ahead for the week and sets us up nicely for the weekend.
Again three interests for today.
Triskaidekaphobia represents the very much underrated Julia Tooth, who does really well with her small string, and with her older sprinters in particular. His record over tonights course and distance reads 7,4,6,1,2,5,11,1,1,6,1,7,5,13,3,8,9,(dsq),12,7,9,9 but if we create a filter to only races where he was drawn in stall 1 or 2, his record becomes 1,1,1,5,3. The 5 represents a race where he came up against one of the few horses in training who has more early speed than him, the Noel Wilson trained Dodaa, and they took each other on for the lead and burnt each other out. Julia is not averse to having big priced winners at this track, indeed I would suggest she is well aware that a couple of her horses, this one included, are one dimensional speedballs, and it seems they can follow a couple of bad runs with a win when they are drawn in the right place. His last win in December came at 33/1 when he pinged the lids and Lingfield and went clear over 5f, just holding on near the finish when tiring. At odds of 25/1, he looks like decent each-way value for a small stake.
In the 6f handicap on the same card, I have to say I'm really surprised at the price of Flowing Cape this morning. The Racing Post forecast has it about right, in my view, at around 5/1 and to be honest I half scratched this fella off my list because I was sure bookmakers would chalk him up at around 9/2 - 5/1, with maybe a touch of 11/2 available with the likes of Sporting Bet - in fairness to them they stick their necks out sometimes where others are more conservative. But the 8/1 freely available is quite simply too big. He is a two time course and distance winner who has been running back into form and has a very good 5lb apprentice booked. Scratch off his last run straight away - he has had three tries on fibresand and bombed out each time. I do just feel he will need things to fall right, so I'm going to play each-way because I think the each-way terms are in our favour. Nine runners, three places, and two back from layoffs, means I think the selection should get into the first three at least. The icing on the cake: we have a 9lb reverse in the weights for a 1/2 length defeat by second favourite Tourist, who reopposes today and is less than half the price of Flowing Cape. Tourist may be more progressive, but on these terms my money is with the Hollinshead horse.
Andrew Balding is pretty good with training stayers, and his Starburst looks the call stepped up to 1m6f tonight, also at Wolves. We don't expect the early 7/2 to last, so take the price - anything around 3/1 or better is decent value in my view. This nicely bred mare looks to be on the improve, and has been crying out for a step up to a staying trip, in my view. She is progressing nicely and recent form suggests to me that she is better than a 65 rated handicapper - I think she could be at least 10lb better in time. We'll have a decent win bet.
Best Recommendations:
5.15 Wolves Triskaidekaphobia, 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Generally - Rocket Ruby has just been announced a non-runner, when markets reform 33/1 will be available, advice is to back the horse then - get guaranteed)
6.45 Wolves Flowing Cape, 2pts e/w @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
7.15 Wolves Starburst, 5pts win @ 7/2 (Betfred, Ladbrokes - guaranteed)
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