Friday, February 26, 2010

Monday February 8th

Two interests at Wolverhampton today.

In the 4.30 extended nine furlong handicap, Kevin Morgan's Mutajaaser looks a spot of value at 12/1 with Stan James. The selection is well bred and has shown more than a glimmer of promise in four maiden runs to date. He makes his handicap debut today off a very feasible mark of 62 and is well drawn for one who likes to race prominently in stall one. Many of this bunch look exposed and Mutajaaser would not need to improve much on the ratings he has already posted to take a hand in the finish here. He has looked a slow learner, boiling over at the start on one occasion and pulling too hard for is own good a couple of times, expending unnecessary energy to the detriment of his finishing effort. If he keeps his cool today, he can put in an improved performance against a moderate bunch and odds of 12/1 look too big.

Maximus Aurelias looks a big price in the second division of this race. He is 5lbs better off with Make Amends with a length and a half to make up according to Lingfield form, and I would suggest he can reverse it. Firstly, he should strip fitter on this his third run after a break. Then, we have the obvious turnaround at the weights. Also, the fact that the selection put in his best performance to date over this course and distance, and will probably be better suited by this track. Then, we have the visual evidence from Lingfield. Maximus was hassled on the lead but stuck on well once headed and was hampered close home. Make Amends was the "eyecatcher" of the race, but she will need the same amount of luck today to get through the pack as she did last time, thus I reckon she is under priced at 7/1. If Maximus can settle better today, and can overcome a wide draw for a jockey who is 15% on the stable's older horses, then he rated a cracking each-way bet at 14/1. He will have to overcome the in-form Grey Command, but if he sits just off the lead rather than getting involved in a pace war, I think he can do it.

Best Recommendation:

4.30 Wolverhampton Mutajaaser, 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Stan James) E/W 3rd

5.30 Wolverhampton Maximus Aurelias, 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (VC Bet, Bet 365, Ladbrokes)

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