Triskaidekaphobia was just run out of a place last night, Starburst was sent off 9/4 but couldn't get in it, and Flowing Cape no showed, but what about Flipando? I had considered a saver given the price, because it really grabbed me that they were running him over that sort of trip, and that they booked Graham Gibbons, who rode Orpsie Boy the last twice but switched his allegience. He was sent off 25/1, I dread to think what the betfair S.P. was, and his performance was flawless. Indeed it is one of the best sprinting performances I've ever seen at Wolves, even though the race was set up for him. July Cup next for him then!
On to a massive Saturday for us.
Our first bet comes in the Novice Chase at Warwick, where we're going to support the talented King Edmund on an each-way basis. Let us examine the facts. He was a half decent hurdler who was always intended as a chaser, and he has had one run over fences, jumping excellently and winning well. He has had a lovely, trouble free, light campaign. A second over hurdles up against The Betchworth Kid (12/1 - 14/1 for the Albert Bartlett) preceded that chase debut where he posted an RPR of 141, against some big names albeit the race has not worked out. Everything about the horse was likeable, he got three or four cracks of the whip up the run in, put his head down and responded, and lengthened. What price would a horse representing Alan King or Paul Nicholls, with this profile, be for today's race? At a rough estimate I'd say 11/2, given the strength of the favourite.
However, I'm not going to be afraid of a favourite who steps back a full mile in trip, and who jumped badly when winning last time out. He could have the engine of an SR-71 for all I care, it's a jumping game and I'll take him on at odds of 1/2. The Nicholls horse looks a good sort too, but he had a hard race in the Irish Arkle, running well below his rating, and you have to wonder whether he is ready for a decent race like this today. King Edmund will be 100% ready for this, and if he jumps as well as he did at Plumpton, he is an excellent each way proposition with 5 runners.
On to Wolves this evening. Simon Walker takes the ride on Colonel Sherman, who looked rejuvenated last time out when second to Shadelight after running too free over twelve furlongs here. He has always showed plenty of speed and the extended mile today looks ideal for him. Simon Walker is worth at least a few pounds in these apprentice races, and if he can tack him over from stall 10, this race is his for the taking. Colonel Sherman looked a picture at Wolverhampton last time and appeals as the type who might run up a sequence. 11/4 should be snapped up, this will probably go off shorter.
The fillies maiden over an extended mile is an interesting contest. Jewelled is the forecast favourite but it will surprise me if he's good enough to win - he has had enough chances and been beaten by moderate opposition already. The Channon horse could be anything, but generally I try to avoid backing newcomers - you never know what you're going to get. The horse is listed as owned by Norman Court stud, who to date as far as I can see have had only moderate 60-70 types with Channon. Forever Fong looks good on paper but his stable are out of form and are not associated with debut winners. The three older horses rated between 37 and 45 I can't have. Which leaves the two interesting ones. Myplacelater ran an extraordinary race on debut, missing the break and having to be ridden, before making plenty of ground out wide and showing good tactical speed in doing so, her efforts eventually taking their toll as she finished one paced. She would be interesting at a price, but it irks me that she is turned out only ten days later. That is not an awful lot of time to overcome that greenness, and I just wonder if she is ready for a heads down battle down the straight on her second start. She may be able to defy her humble breeding (cost 1,800gns) but I don't want to back her at 11/4.
Richard Fahey's Spirited Lady showed nothing on her debut, to the casual observer at least. However, I thought she looked a fairly well put together filly and I like the way she moved in the early part of that contest. She looked green and was, shall we say, heavily restrained in rear by Paul Hanagan when she wanted to get along with things. She lost touch down the home straight, but she may well have needed the experience altogether and should come on a bundle for the run. Three weeks is a long time with a filly of this age and it could be we see a different horse tonight. Her relatives were all rated 73-90 and if she runs anywhere near that she should get in the frame here. She is declared for Southwell on the 16th but I find it interesting Paul Hanagan is already jocked up on stablemate My Mandy - it seems as if this race is the choice for Spirited Lady, rather than three quick runs and a handicap mark. The excellent Barry McHugh claims an invaluable 3lb and she looks good each-way value.
On to our last bet. Benedict Spirit has run better than his handicap mark on both his starts for Dave Evans so far, and he is of interest returned to his best trip of 12f tonight in the last. Cheekpieces, which he has gone close in before, are reapplied tonight and Andrew Heffernan takes over in the plate - he is better than Richard Evans in my view. Drawn three, the selection should be able to set a steady pace and stay on down the straight, barring Maslak setting a ridiculous gallop or something similar. Nothing too complicated here, an obvious bet and the price looks value.
Four horses and a busy day for us, stick to the correct staking as always and get guaranteed prices where possible!
Best Recommendation:
2.15 Warwick King Edmund, 2pts e/w @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
6.20 Wolves Colonel Sherman, 5pts win @ 11/4 (Generally, get guaranteed) NON-RUNNER
8.50 Wolves Spirited Lady, 2pts e/w @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
9.20 Wolves Benedict Spirit, 3pts win @ 8/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed)
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