A fantastic day yesterday with Ginger Jack and Vintage both winning for us.
One bet only for us today.
Nick Littmoden's England looks a fascinating entry for the six furlong maiden at Lingfield. The selection was entered in some good races last summer for his debut, and was sent off a short price under Jamie Spencer for his first run at Yarmouth, in a Novice Stakes which has worked out well. He looked pretty green on all his three runs in maidens, which were all hot races contested by horses who have gone on to better things. Two things interest me. Firstly, he plainly looked like a horse who needed more time to fill out his frame, he is a big enough horse who travelled fairly well before weakening in all three starts. Secondly, he didn't seem to be in love with the good / good to firm ground he raced on, on all three occasions. He has yet to be involved in a finish and I just thought he wasn't letting himself down as he should be. Being out of Bertolini, he should be suited by artificial surfaces and the more forgiving nature of polytrack should allow him to let himself down better and stretch out into his full stride today.
The Littmoden stable look braced for a better season this year. They did really well on the all weather a few years back and had some good horses but Nick got more into breeding and selling horses when he realised the prize money in the UK was so poor. However, reports are that he has been bitten by the bug again and is set to concentrate more on training again. The evidence is already there: Valkyrie has been running well for the stable, and Kindlelight Sun won for them first time out at the end of January. Alternative Choice was quietly backed for them yesterday, coming back off a break, and ran really well in third, beaten three quarters of a length. Neil Callan has a 16% strike rate for them in the last five seasons and is booked today. Stall two looks a perfect draw and I hope he makes all.
The opposition look average. Two of the older horses can be discounted straight away, the third, Trading Nation, will need to improve to take a hand in my opinion. Mint Whip and Takajan look OR mid 60's types to me and will again need to improve to win. Pippbrook Minster is favourite, but a strong pace fell apart into her lap last time out and she also raced on a sweet spot of ground where a few winners came from on that day - on that basis I think she is too short, although open to improvement, at around 6/4. Penrod Ballantyne is the danger for me, he travels well and will be suited by the step back to 6f. He looks a bit quirky though, he had to be ridden and was given a couple of backhanders around the home turn at Wolves last time out, and he is drawn no better today in stall eight of eight.
England looks good value at 10/1, he could be a cut above these and the price looks too big. I've had a decent each-way bet.
Best Recommendation:
4.30 Lingfield England, 3pts each-way @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed and take early price now) E/W 3rd
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