Thursday, March 25, 2010
Next blog update - Monday April 5th
Happy Easter everyone... no bets for us until Easter Monday when we will have a special analysis of the Irish Grand National.
Cheltenham Festival 2010 - Day Four Analysis
Apologies for a shorter write up today due to internet difficulties which have plagued us all morning. Alberta's Run was a cracking winner for us yesterday, hope you all took the 25/1 advised ante post last month.
1.30 Cheltenham - Jcb Triumph Hurdle (grade 1)
Alavian to win @ 9/2 (Sporting Bet)
Tough race as ever, Alavian would be 7/2 if he was proven on this ground and he looks the classiest of this lot by some way. Said to be working well and has had a trouble free prep.
2.05 Cheltenham Vincent O'brien County Handicap Hurdle
Secret Dancer each-way @ 20/1 (Paddy Power, 5 places, guaranteed)
Has some serious Cheltenham form behind Loosen My Load and Zaynar too, over a trip which stretched him. Gambling stable pulled off a big coup the other day. 20/1 is massive and first five home are paid.
2.40 Cheltenham Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
Tell Massini to win @ 9/2 (Generally, guaranteed)
Again a slight question mark with the ground but I think he is the class act in this field. Has had an excellent season, and I think a good, sound horse should go on good ground; I actually think 9/2 is good value.
3.20 Cheltenham Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup
Cooldine each-way @ 10/1 (Bet 365, 1/4 odds)
I've always thought Kauto would be vulnerable this time around. He is an all time great but I really don't know how often he can go to the well. I don't believe Cheltenham is his best track (Kempton is) and I want to take him on at odds on. I was keen on Denman, but can't have him after Newbury last time out. Cooldine is the up and coming horse, his form with Joncol is absolutely rock solid and 10/1 each-way is great value.
4.00 Cheltenham Christie's Foxhunter Chase
Baby Run to win @ 13/2 (Coral, guaranteed) WON
Not a race to get hugely involved in but Baby Run seems to have had the best prep and this could be his year.
4.40 Cheltenham Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle
Radium each-way @ 14/1 (Bet 365, 5 places) E/W 2nd
Again a minefield, Radium looks a little quirky but the big field might suit and he looks very unexposed. 14/1 is big.
5.15 Cheltenham The Grand Annual
French Opera each-way @ 10/1 (Bet 365, 5 places) E/W 2nd
French Opera looks rock solid each-way material, 1/4 first 5 places with Bet 365.
1.30 Cheltenham - Jcb Triumph Hurdle (grade 1)
Alavian to win @ 9/2 (Sporting Bet)
Tough race as ever, Alavian would be 7/2 if he was proven on this ground and he looks the classiest of this lot by some way. Said to be working well and has had a trouble free prep.
2.05 Cheltenham Vincent O'brien County Handicap Hurdle
Secret Dancer each-way @ 20/1 (Paddy Power, 5 places, guaranteed)
Has some serious Cheltenham form behind Loosen My Load and Zaynar too, over a trip which stretched him. Gambling stable pulled off a big coup the other day. 20/1 is massive and first five home are paid.
2.40 Cheltenham Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
Tell Massini to win @ 9/2 (Generally, guaranteed)
Again a slight question mark with the ground but I think he is the class act in this field. Has had an excellent season, and I think a good, sound horse should go on good ground; I actually think 9/2 is good value.
3.20 Cheltenham Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup
Cooldine each-way @ 10/1 (Bet 365, 1/4 odds)
I've always thought Kauto would be vulnerable this time around. He is an all time great but I really don't know how often he can go to the well. I don't believe Cheltenham is his best track (Kempton is) and I want to take him on at odds on. I was keen on Denman, but can't have him after Newbury last time out. Cooldine is the up and coming horse, his form with Joncol is absolutely rock solid and 10/1 each-way is great value.
4.00 Cheltenham Christie's Foxhunter Chase
Baby Run to win @ 13/2 (Coral, guaranteed) WON
Not a race to get hugely involved in but Baby Run seems to have had the best prep and this could be his year.
4.40 Cheltenham Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle
Radium each-way @ 14/1 (Bet 365, 5 places) E/W 2nd
Again a minefield, Radium looks a little quirky but the big field might suit and he looks very unexposed. 14/1 is big.
5.15 Cheltenham The Grand Annual
French Opera each-way @ 10/1 (Bet 365, 5 places) E/W 2nd
French Opera looks rock solid each-way material, 1/4 first 5 places with Bet 365.
Cheltenham Festival 2010 - Day Three Analysis
Some crazy results yesterday but we had Michael Flips e/w @ 33/1, Poker De Sivola won @ 14/1 (Adv 18/1) and you will have got paid on Summit Meeting 4th @ 10/1 with some bookmakers. Let down of the day was Master Minded.
1.30 Cheltenham - The Jewson Handicap Chase
Recommendation: China Rock each-way @ 9/1 (Generally) E/W 4th
China Rock is a good looking son of Presenting who outran 25/1 odds to finish third in last years Ballymore Hurdle. He has progresses slowly over fences but had run in some really hot races in Ireland this winter on unsuitably slow ground. He could be the type of horse who shows his best at Cheltenham each year. His form behind Sizing Europe, Pandorama (possible non stayer on yielding ground over 24f) and Roberta Goldback looks strong and more than once he looked like winning one of those events. He posted an RPR of 150 over hurdles here last year, and I think he looks quite well handicapped off 141 today. Slippers Madden needs a high profile winner and it would be nice to see him boot (no pun intended) this one home today.
2.05 Cheltenham - The Pertemps Final
Recommendation:
Time Electric each-way @ 20/1 (Make sure to back with bookmaker paying 5 places)
Smoking Aces each-way @ 10/1 (Make sure to back with bookmaker paying 5 places)
Time Electric looks an ideal horse for this event. He has failed so far to live up to his debut bumper win but I noted him running well on numerous occasions last Autumn when things, for one reason or another, didn't pan out his way. His performance here in November was eye catching, and straight away I thought connections would save his handicap mark for this race, which it seems they have done. I think he'll run very well and should be in the first 5.
Anything Tom Taaffe sends over merits respect and Smoking Aces boasts some very decent Irish form and I think Tom will be sending the English handicapper a case of guinness if he wins this. I would be very happy about him getting in here off 135 after posting an RPR of 142 last time out in Ireland. He is fancied and the excellent Paddy Flood takes the ride.
2.40 Cheltenham - The Ryanair Chase
Recommendation:
Alberta's Run to win @ 16/1 (Generally) WON - Advised @ 25/1 Ante Post to our clients
Barber's Shop to win @ 6/1 (Generally)
We've backed these two ante post and there's no need to change anything at this stage if you're already on. Barber Shop is classy, and he finally steps back to his ideal distance today. The King George form looks strong and it is often forgotten that horses who run in the King George have a very decent record at Cheltenham. Stable and jockey are in excellent form. Alberta's Run is the danger on his best form. He looks a big price for a previous Sun Alliance winner and King George second. His form this year has been up there with his best and 16/1 is too big.
3.20 Cheltenham - The World Hurdle
Question Marks about many Big Buck's challengers here - many of them are hard to fancy on the book with respect to turning recent form around with the Champ. The Cleeve Hurdle is traditionally a good trial for this race, however, and Tidal Bay's victory in this years renewal really caught my attention. He is a fair bit shorter than Time For Rupert who reopposes off 4lb better for a good reason - Tidal Bay had loads in hand that day. He travelled supremely well, came around the outside to challenge, and really stayed well. As a horse with top class Cheltenham experience, he rates the number one challenger and 8/1 each-way is very fair.
Lie Forrit hasn't been seen since bombing out in the Cleeve, but take out that run and he is a very progressive stayer. His handicap win at Newbury on his previous run was awesome, he ate up the ground giving loads of weight away and stayed really well. He was sent off favourite for the Cleeve but put in a bad one, apparently not fit enough after snow hampered Willie Amos' training facilities. Is one run enough to write him off as a 66/1 chance? I think not.
Recommendation:
Tidal Bay each-way @ 8/1 (Generally)
Lie Forrit each-way @ 66/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
4.00 Cheltenham - The Byrne Group Plate
I'm So Lucky caught the eye on both occasions he has run this season. He was wrongly pulled up when going very well first time up (Tom Scudamore thought he was lame, but he was not - we were on him at a huge price that day!), and he was brought down by a faller when travelling like the winner last time out. I think he is very well in at the weights, and he can win this with better luck.
In Compliance gets in off 149 here and I think that is very fair considering he is a Grade 1 horse on his best form. The 10yo is getting on, but he is very lightly raced for a horse his age and finally, finally he gets to travel over for a festival! It's a couple of years too late for a Championship race but on his best form he wins this.
Recommendation:
I'm So Lucky each-way @ 12/1 (Get paid 5 placesand guaranteed!)
In Compliance each-way @ 20/1 (Get paid 5 places and guaranteed!)
4.40 Cheltenham - The Kim Muir Chase
A decent renewal and not many of these can be struck off the list. Kia Kaha's run behind the talented Shining Gale last winter still sticks out in my mind, and I can't help but feel he hasn't had his conditions since. He has also received the odd strange ride, and I find him doubly interesting given that he has quickly dropped a stone in the weights and races off 130 here. If he returns to form on this better ground, he has every chance of getting competitive.
Recommendation:
Kia Kaha each-way @ 20/1 (Bet 365 and William Hill - 5 places paid and price guaranteed)
1.30 Cheltenham - The Jewson Handicap Chase
Recommendation: China Rock each-way @ 9/1 (Generally) E/W 4th
China Rock is a good looking son of Presenting who outran 25/1 odds to finish third in last years Ballymore Hurdle. He has progresses slowly over fences but had run in some really hot races in Ireland this winter on unsuitably slow ground. He could be the type of horse who shows his best at Cheltenham each year. His form behind Sizing Europe, Pandorama (possible non stayer on yielding ground over 24f) and Roberta Goldback looks strong and more than once he looked like winning one of those events. He posted an RPR of 150 over hurdles here last year, and I think he looks quite well handicapped off 141 today. Slippers Madden needs a high profile winner and it would be nice to see him boot (no pun intended) this one home today.
2.05 Cheltenham - The Pertemps Final
Recommendation:
Time Electric each-way @ 20/1 (Make sure to back with bookmaker paying 5 places)
Smoking Aces each-way @ 10/1 (Make sure to back with bookmaker paying 5 places)
Time Electric looks an ideal horse for this event. He has failed so far to live up to his debut bumper win but I noted him running well on numerous occasions last Autumn when things, for one reason or another, didn't pan out his way. His performance here in November was eye catching, and straight away I thought connections would save his handicap mark for this race, which it seems they have done. I think he'll run very well and should be in the first 5.
Anything Tom Taaffe sends over merits respect and Smoking Aces boasts some very decent Irish form and I think Tom will be sending the English handicapper a case of guinness if he wins this. I would be very happy about him getting in here off 135 after posting an RPR of 142 last time out in Ireland. He is fancied and the excellent Paddy Flood takes the ride.
2.40 Cheltenham - The Ryanair Chase
Recommendation:
Alberta's Run to win @ 16/1 (Generally) WON - Advised @ 25/1 Ante Post to our clients
Barber's Shop to win @ 6/1 (Generally)
We've backed these two ante post and there's no need to change anything at this stage if you're already on. Barber Shop is classy, and he finally steps back to his ideal distance today. The King George form looks strong and it is often forgotten that horses who run in the King George have a very decent record at Cheltenham. Stable and jockey are in excellent form. Alberta's Run is the danger on his best form. He looks a big price for a previous Sun Alliance winner and King George second. His form this year has been up there with his best and 16/1 is too big.
3.20 Cheltenham - The World Hurdle
Question Marks about many Big Buck's challengers here - many of them are hard to fancy on the book with respect to turning recent form around with the Champ. The Cleeve Hurdle is traditionally a good trial for this race, however, and Tidal Bay's victory in this years renewal really caught my attention. He is a fair bit shorter than Time For Rupert who reopposes off 4lb better for a good reason - Tidal Bay had loads in hand that day. He travelled supremely well, came around the outside to challenge, and really stayed well. As a horse with top class Cheltenham experience, he rates the number one challenger and 8/1 each-way is very fair.
Lie Forrit hasn't been seen since bombing out in the Cleeve, but take out that run and he is a very progressive stayer. His handicap win at Newbury on his previous run was awesome, he ate up the ground giving loads of weight away and stayed really well. He was sent off favourite for the Cleeve but put in a bad one, apparently not fit enough after snow hampered Willie Amos' training facilities. Is one run enough to write him off as a 66/1 chance? I think not.
Recommendation:
Tidal Bay each-way @ 8/1 (Generally)
Lie Forrit each-way @ 66/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
4.00 Cheltenham - The Byrne Group Plate
I'm So Lucky caught the eye on both occasions he has run this season. He was wrongly pulled up when going very well first time up (Tom Scudamore thought he was lame, but he was not - we were on him at a huge price that day!), and he was brought down by a faller when travelling like the winner last time out. I think he is very well in at the weights, and he can win this with better luck.
In Compliance gets in off 149 here and I think that is very fair considering he is a Grade 1 horse on his best form. The 10yo is getting on, but he is very lightly raced for a horse his age and finally, finally he gets to travel over for a festival! It's a couple of years too late for a Championship race but on his best form he wins this.
Recommendation:
I'm So Lucky each-way @ 12/1 (Get paid 5 placesand guaranteed!)
In Compliance each-way @ 20/1 (Get paid 5 places and guaranteed!)
4.40 Cheltenham - The Kim Muir Chase
A decent renewal and not many of these can be struck off the list. Kia Kaha's run behind the talented Shining Gale last winter still sticks out in my mind, and I can't help but feel he hasn't had his conditions since. He has also received the odd strange ride, and I find him doubly interesting given that he has quickly dropped a stone in the weights and races off 130 here. If he returns to form on this better ground, he has every chance of getting competitive.
Recommendation:
Kia Kaha each-way @ 20/1 (Bet 365 and William Hill - 5 places paid and price guaranteed)
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Cheltenham Festival 2010 - Day Two Analysis
Happy St. Patricks Day to all! It's a particularly happy one for us with the Champion Hurdle winner in the bag. Binocular was awesome and 3pts each-way @ 9/1 S.P. puts us well ahead for the festival so far.
Another cracking day today and I can't wait.
1.30 Cheltenham - The National Hunt Chase
The festival four miler for amateur jockeys opens the card on day two. The value bet here looks to be Ferdy Murphy's Poker De Sivola. The selection won nicely at Catterick last time out and has a good record at Cheltenham. Ferdy has taken the trouble to book top Irish amateur Katie Walsh. Odds of 18/1 looks too big for a horse who has competed so well at this course in the past, representing a trainer with an excellent festival record.
At a bigger price, the progressive Youngstown represents value for the McCain team. The selection has a record of 1,1,2 over three miles plus and in my opinion may improve for better ground today despite the assertions of the Racing Post which seems to suggest the better ground will not suit. 40/1 is too big.
Recommendation:
Youngstown each-way @ 40/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
Poker De Sivola each-way @ 18/1 (Sporting Bet, Coral, guaranteed) WON
2.05 Cheltenham - The Neptune Novices Hurdle
Despite Dunguib's defeat yesterday, his form still looks high class and it catches my eye that Some Present has been looking at the back of his arse for most of the winter. A son of Presenting, he should improve for today's step up in trip and will have no problem on good ground. His form at this course back in November when staying on strongly behind Loosen My Load is strong, and should he repeat that level over this longer trip he has every chance of winning here. He is a massive price at 33/1.
Summit Meeting represents Jessica Harrington and looks a big price at 14/1 following three solid wins this season, with one bad run in between. He was said to have needed the run badly last time and if he improves on that today, he must go close in this contest. Robbie Power takes the ride.
Skybet are paying e/w on the first four home.
Recommendation:
Some Present e/w @ 33/1 (Generally, guaranteed - Skybet 4 places)
Summit Meeting e/w @ 14/1 (Sporting Bet, VC Bet guaranteed - Skybet 4 places) E/W 4th
2.40 Cheltenham - The Royal and Sun Alliance Chase
Long Run is the talk of all the preview nights but he does not jump well, and has a tendency to pull hard. Add to that the fact that he has an amateur jockey on board (albeit a decent one) and you have a favourite who makes no appeal. Punchestowns has been there and got the T-Shirt, his performance last year when second to Big Bucks in the stayers hurdle confirmed that he acts on this track and it is form of the highest order. He has run twice over fences and acquitted himself well, winning well on both occasions, and he seemed to learn from his mistakes on the latter occasion. 11/4 is still a fair price; he looks the class act.
Recommendation:
Punchestowns to win @ 11/4 (William Hill, guaranteed)
3.10 Cheltenham - The Queen Mother Champion Chase
We're on Master Minded at 7/4 from a few weeks back and there's no need to act again. Our maximum bet should be delivered barring a fall, which is a possibility - he does make the odd blunder. At his best, this lot won't get near him. Ruby Walsh schooled him last week and said he would win barring accidents - as jockeys go he's not a bad judge and I'm happy to sit on this bet.
Recommendation:
Already Advised - Master Minded to win @ 7/4 (Maximum Bet)
4.00 Cheltenham - The Coral Cup
Fantastic memories of this race for us, with Nintieth Minute beating Mirage D'Or last year to give us the 1-2 (you'll remember we backed both each-way, both 14/1) and Sky's The Limit, who done an incredible piece of work at Leopardstown before landing the odds for us at 11/1 by four lengths off top weight in 2006. A lot to live up to in a really strong renewal today, then!
Mick Quinlan's Silk Affair is our first selection. Mick Quinlan's talented mare travels well off a strong pace and is in off a mark which I think she can defy today. She carries 10-6 which is a really good racing weight and the excellent Timmy Murphy takes the ride. 16/1 is fair.
Michael Flips put in a monster performance in winning the Lanzarote by 8 lengths from the very decent Duc Du Regniere and although all his best form is on flat tracks, he is just too big to resist here at 33/1. He is a classy horse on his day and he can be excused his subsequent disappointment as he was turned out too quickly in my view.
Recommendation:
Michael Flips e/w @ 33/1 (Generally, guaranteed) E/W 4th
Silk Affair e/w @ 16/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
4.40 Cheltenham - The Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle
I'm happy to play two horses each-way in this race only because Bet 365 pay 1/4 odds 5 places. I strongly advise anyone betting to do likewise.
This is not a race I play heavily in anyway, but David Pipe's Hunterview has excellent claims on his recent form, and I'm particularly pleased to see the blinkers making a reappearance. His best form on the flat was achieved in headgear and I reckon it should have a galvanising effect today. Son Amix has every chance on his win last time out, but that was run on ground much softer than he will get today. It looks like the strongest piece of form on offer from my reading, and I'm happy to take the chance at odds of 16/1 that he can reproduces it today. It is dangerous to take heavy ground form literally but the odds definitely justify the risk.
Recommendation:
Hunterview each-way @ 17/2
Son Amix each-way @ 16/1
5.20 Cheltenham - The Champion Bumper
Ok, question time. Why is Al Ferof best priced 10/1, and joint second favourite with some firms, and Made In Time 28/1? The answer in my opinion is lazy form reading and high profile connections. Rebecca Curtis's gelding is now owned by J.P. McManus and to be honest I thought he should have gotten closer to Al Ferof last time out - he didn't settle early on and looked like he needed a stiffer test of stamina when it came to the business end of the race. I think today's conditions will suit him absolutely perfectly, a strong pace and the Cheltenham hill. McCoy has remained loyal and takes the ride. Here's a quote from the racing post after his last run:
"Ffos Las winner Made In Time hit the headlines earlier in the week when transferring to the ownership of JP McManus and was solid in the market. He took a little time to settle and that probably cost him a real chance of success as he was going best of all around four furlongs out. His response off the bridle was a game one, but he ultimately shaped as though a stiffer test was required. The future still looks bright for him."
There has been a lot of talk about Drumbaloo, and some good judges I know hold ante post vouchers at 25/1, but having missed that boat, I'm going to take a chance on an English winner this season!
Recommendation:
Made In Time each-way @ 28/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Another cracking day today and I can't wait.
1.30 Cheltenham - The National Hunt Chase
The festival four miler for amateur jockeys opens the card on day two. The value bet here looks to be Ferdy Murphy's Poker De Sivola. The selection won nicely at Catterick last time out and has a good record at Cheltenham. Ferdy has taken the trouble to book top Irish amateur Katie Walsh. Odds of 18/1 looks too big for a horse who has competed so well at this course in the past, representing a trainer with an excellent festival record.
At a bigger price, the progressive Youngstown represents value for the McCain team. The selection has a record of 1,1,2 over three miles plus and in my opinion may improve for better ground today despite the assertions of the Racing Post which seems to suggest the better ground will not suit. 40/1 is too big.
Recommendation:
Youngstown each-way @ 40/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
Poker De Sivola each-way @ 18/1 (Sporting Bet, Coral, guaranteed) WON
2.05 Cheltenham - The Neptune Novices Hurdle
Despite Dunguib's defeat yesterday, his form still looks high class and it catches my eye that Some Present has been looking at the back of his arse for most of the winter. A son of Presenting, he should improve for today's step up in trip and will have no problem on good ground. His form at this course back in November when staying on strongly behind Loosen My Load is strong, and should he repeat that level over this longer trip he has every chance of winning here. He is a massive price at 33/1.
Summit Meeting represents Jessica Harrington and looks a big price at 14/1 following three solid wins this season, with one bad run in between. He was said to have needed the run badly last time and if he improves on that today, he must go close in this contest. Robbie Power takes the ride.
Skybet are paying e/w on the first four home.
Recommendation:
Some Present e/w @ 33/1 (Generally, guaranteed - Skybet 4 places)
Summit Meeting e/w @ 14/1 (Sporting Bet, VC Bet guaranteed - Skybet 4 places) E/W 4th
2.40 Cheltenham - The Royal and Sun Alliance Chase
Long Run is the talk of all the preview nights but he does not jump well, and has a tendency to pull hard. Add to that the fact that he has an amateur jockey on board (albeit a decent one) and you have a favourite who makes no appeal. Punchestowns has been there and got the T-Shirt, his performance last year when second to Big Bucks in the stayers hurdle confirmed that he acts on this track and it is form of the highest order. He has run twice over fences and acquitted himself well, winning well on both occasions, and he seemed to learn from his mistakes on the latter occasion. 11/4 is still a fair price; he looks the class act.
Recommendation:
Punchestowns to win @ 11/4 (William Hill, guaranteed)
3.10 Cheltenham - The Queen Mother Champion Chase
We're on Master Minded at 7/4 from a few weeks back and there's no need to act again. Our maximum bet should be delivered barring a fall, which is a possibility - he does make the odd blunder. At his best, this lot won't get near him. Ruby Walsh schooled him last week and said he would win barring accidents - as jockeys go he's not a bad judge and I'm happy to sit on this bet.
Recommendation:
Already Advised - Master Minded to win @ 7/4 (Maximum Bet)
4.00 Cheltenham - The Coral Cup
Fantastic memories of this race for us, with Nintieth Minute beating Mirage D'Or last year to give us the 1-2 (you'll remember we backed both each-way, both 14/1) and Sky's The Limit, who done an incredible piece of work at Leopardstown before landing the odds for us at 11/1 by four lengths off top weight in 2006. A lot to live up to in a really strong renewal today, then!
Mick Quinlan's Silk Affair is our first selection. Mick Quinlan's talented mare travels well off a strong pace and is in off a mark which I think she can defy today. She carries 10-6 which is a really good racing weight and the excellent Timmy Murphy takes the ride. 16/1 is fair.
Michael Flips put in a monster performance in winning the Lanzarote by 8 lengths from the very decent Duc Du Regniere and although all his best form is on flat tracks, he is just too big to resist here at 33/1. He is a classy horse on his day and he can be excused his subsequent disappointment as he was turned out too quickly in my view.
Recommendation:
Michael Flips e/w @ 33/1 (Generally, guaranteed) E/W 4th
Silk Affair e/w @ 16/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
4.40 Cheltenham - The Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle
I'm happy to play two horses each-way in this race only because Bet 365 pay 1/4 odds 5 places. I strongly advise anyone betting to do likewise.
This is not a race I play heavily in anyway, but David Pipe's Hunterview has excellent claims on his recent form, and I'm particularly pleased to see the blinkers making a reappearance. His best form on the flat was achieved in headgear and I reckon it should have a galvanising effect today. Son Amix has every chance on his win last time out, but that was run on ground much softer than he will get today. It looks like the strongest piece of form on offer from my reading, and I'm happy to take the chance at odds of 16/1 that he can reproduces it today. It is dangerous to take heavy ground form literally but the odds definitely justify the risk.
Recommendation:
Hunterview each-way @ 17/2
Son Amix each-way @ 16/1
5.20 Cheltenham - The Champion Bumper
Ok, question time. Why is Al Ferof best priced 10/1, and joint second favourite with some firms, and Made In Time 28/1? The answer in my opinion is lazy form reading and high profile connections. Rebecca Curtis's gelding is now owned by J.P. McManus and to be honest I thought he should have gotten closer to Al Ferof last time out - he didn't settle early on and looked like he needed a stiffer test of stamina when it came to the business end of the race. I think today's conditions will suit him absolutely perfectly, a strong pace and the Cheltenham hill. McCoy has remained loyal and takes the ride. Here's a quote from the racing post after his last run:
"Ffos Las winner Made In Time hit the headlines earlier in the week when transferring to the ownership of JP McManus and was solid in the market. He took a little time to settle and that probably cost him a real chance of success as he was going best of all around four furlongs out. His response off the bridle was a game one, but he ultimately shaped as though a stiffer test was required. The future still looks bright for him."
There has been a lot of talk about Drumbaloo, and some good judges I know hold ante post vouchers at 25/1, but having missed that boat, I'm going to take a chance on an English winner this season!
Recommendation:
Made In Time each-way @ 28/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Cheltenham Festival 2010 - Day One Analysis
Just a note first that Bet 365 are apparently going best price on all horses in all races for the week of the festival. They also give you a free bet to the same stake if you back the winner of any race on Channel 4 at an S.P. of 4/1 or better. I'd say take advantage of Paddy Power's Dunguib offer for the Supreme, and use Bet 365 for the rest of the races.
Day one of the festival and it's cracking stuff right the way through the card.
1.30 Cheltenham - The Supreme Novices Hurdle
An fascinating renewal of the Supreme Novices. I have been opposing the favourite, Dunguib, for this contest all winter. Split second reactions win or lose these big Cheltenham races and with an amateur pilot on board, I think Dunguib is at a slight disadvantage. He has never raced on ground as quick as he will get today. His jumping is a little bit suspect, but I think he'll probably get away with that. And here's the bit you probably haven't heard anywhere else... I don't personally think there was a lot left in the tank last time out after he cruised past the opposition at Leopardstown and in my view he will need to improve a bit on that to win today - at odds on he is no value and I will be laying. Apart from the dent in my pocket, I would be delighted to see him win - connections have conducted themselves with good grace all winter and have been an open book with regards to their plans for the horse, unlike some others.
I don't like Get Me Out Of Here, the second favourite. His head carriage was all over the shop at Newbury last time and an awkward head carriage, the Cheltenham hill, and odds of around 9/2 won't see me running up to Paddy Power's counter to have 50 quid each-way on in the vain hope that this is a two horse race. He has his chance and is no doubt a very good horse, but he's not for me in this race and is no value.
Personally, I would rather be a Dunguib layer than back another horse in this race. However, the two I do like from a value perspective are Blackstairmountain and General Miller.
Blackstairmountain sees Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh team up, and he will be popular with the Irish each-way bandits. The selection was impressive on his only start over hurdles, jumping nicely and winning very cosily, posting an RPR of 135 in the process on ground which would not be his ideal. Mullins has stated on numerous occasions that he will improve on good ground, and if he does he will be close enough to the level needed to win here. He is relatively inexperienced and that is the only reason I'm laying the favourite rather than backing this fella each-way - he could well be good enough but his jumping will need to be excellent.
General Miller is a nice horse of Nicky Hendersons, who has a course record of 1,2. His second was on soft ground over 2m4 1/2f which seemed to stretch him, and his win over 2m1f here interests me far more. He put his head down and battled that day and he looks just the sort to relish the hustle and bustle of a big field around here. He looks the stable second string on jockey bookings but has excellent credentials for a race like this and 25/1 is an insult to what he has achieved so far.
Look out for Far Away So Close to improve for a big field and better ground (sired by Norwich) - he is a monster price and I won't recommend him on what he has done up to now but I do find it interesting that Paul Nolan has sent him over.
>Recommendation:
LAY Dunguib @ 1.95 - Successful Lay - "Banker of the meeting" laid at odds on!
or
Blackstairmountain each-way @ 10/1
General Miller each-way @ 22/1 (Both with Paddy Power - guaranteed prices and refund if Dunguib wins)
2.05 Cheltenham - The Arkle Chase
A strong renewal. I'm going to oppose Captain Cee Bee here, he has a very high cruising speed and course form but his fall in Ireland when he looked in control against Sizing Europe didn't look too good, and he made another mistake last time although winning impressively in the end. Sizing Europe is another I can't have, he looked held by Captain Cee Bee in that race, and despite his decent record over fences he is not for me.
Somersby represents a trainer who has taken a lot of stick in recent times but I think she has a really nice horse on her hands here. His defeat of Crack Away Jack is, for me, the best piece of form on offer here and if he reproduces that he can win today. His time that day was 1.8 seconds better than Twist Magic's time in the Tingle Creek and I think that says a lot about how good a novice chase it was, despite the small field. Choc Thornton is booked to ride today and he rides the track supremely well. 4/1 looks a fair price.
Of the bigger prices, Nicky Henderson's Mad Max looks like the wild card who just might upset the applecart if everything falls into place for him. Nicky has gone to the trouble of booking Paul Carberry to ride and the two look like a match made in heaven. Mad Max has a high cruising speed and treats fences with disdain if he is given confidence, and he strikes me as just the type of horse Carberry rides for Noel Meade week in, week out. I'm hoping Carberry switches him right off and rides him like a non-trier, only producing him coming up the hill. At odds of 28/1, this giant horse looks overpriced on his best previous efforts and should run a decent race.
>Recommendation:
Somersby to win @ 4/1 (Bet 365 - Free bet to same stake if Somersby wins at 4/1 or better)
Mad Max each-way @ 28/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
2.40 Cheltenham - The William Hill Trophy
The usual 24 runner madness here, and it should be fantastic to watch as ever with every chance of a surprising result. I will probably have a couple of very small, fun each-way bets but I don't generally go big on this race.
Having said that, Nenuphar Collonges looks like decent each-way value at 20/1. The selection represents Alan King, who has an excellent festival record, indeed the 9yo has some serious course form in his favour, with a record of 2,1,1,3 at Cheltenham and a damn good record after a short break too (108 day absence to overcome here). He is 2lb higher than when third in this race last year, but he has a nice sub-11 stone racing weight and I really can't see what there is not to like about his profile. As good a 20/1 each-way shot as you'll get.
Nigel Twiston Davies' Knowhere showed improved form for the reapplication of blinkers ten days ago at Newbury. That was in a veterans chase, but he ran 9lb above his current handicap mark and has sneaked in here off the same mark today. As a 12yo, it is a big "if" as to whether he can repeat that form here, but he has had some of his best days at Cheltenham and he doesn't appear to have lost any of his enthusiasm. Odds of 50/1 are too big and he is worthy of each-way support.
Recommendation:
Knowhere each-way @ 50/1 (Bet 365 1/4 odds first 5 places, guaranteed)
Nenuphar Collonges each-way @ 20/1 (Generally - get 1/4 odds first 5 places, guaranteed)
2.10 Cheltenham - The Champion Hurdle
An intruiging renewal, as ever.
So much has been written about this race, and you could argue until the cows come home but I think if it were run ten times, you might get three or four different winners. In the end, I've come down on the side of Binocular because I think todays race conditions will see him improve more than any other horse. He has strong festival form, having come 2nd in the Supreme Novices as a 4yo, and third in the Champion Hurdle on unsuitable ground as a 5yo. The ground has come right for him today, and a recent deluge of support has seen him challenge Punjabi as Henderson's foremost contender.
His run in the fighting fifth was poor enough, but he may have needed the race then. I cast my mind back to the 2007-2008 season, when a brilliant Harchibald absolutely shat on Katchit in the fighting fifth, making him look like a paceless plater in the process, only for Katchit to completely reverse that form at Cheltenham in March with a battling win.
Binocular improved second time out, finishing only 1 1/4 lengths off Go Native in the Christmas Hurdle despite a bad mistake three out and jumping left in places. He won handy last time out in his prep race, and I just have a feeling the sun has got on his back at the right time this year - recent reports from Tony McCoy have been unusually upbeat after a season of disappointment, and I reckon the Henderson team fancy his chances for this race. It seems fitness is not an issue, he has overcome a recent setback, and with the money pouring in at the right time, he is the each-way selection at around 8/1.
Recommendation:
Binocular each-way @ 8/1 (Generally, guaranteed) WON @ 9/1 - Champion Hurdle winner in the bag!
4.00 Cheltenham - The X-Country Chase
A fun race to watch, but I will not be getting involved. Enda Bolger farms this race and his Garde Champetre is good enough to win at 9/4 with William Hill.
Recommendation:
Garde Champetre @ 9/4 (WIlliam Hill, guaranteed)
4.40 Cheltenham - The David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
This will probably be dominated by the top two in the betting but the cold fact is that neither has had an uninterrupted preparation, and I will take them on each-way with No One Tells Me of Jessica Harringtons. She has two lengths to find with Voler La Vedette on December form, but it's March now and the better ground is what this mare wants. She has been trained with this race in mind all season, and her preparation has gone well - strike off the form of her prep run last time, the ground was too soft and she wasn't exactly knocked about because today has always been the plan. She is an improving horse who remains unexposed, and although she has a bit to find with the market leaders on the book, she is good each-way value at around 12/1 or better.
Recommendation:
No One Tells Me each-way @ 12/1 (VC Bet, Coral - guaranteed)
Day one of the festival and it's cracking stuff right the way through the card.
1.30 Cheltenham - The Supreme Novices Hurdle
An fascinating renewal of the Supreme Novices. I have been opposing the favourite, Dunguib, for this contest all winter. Split second reactions win or lose these big Cheltenham races and with an amateur pilot on board, I think Dunguib is at a slight disadvantage. He has never raced on ground as quick as he will get today. His jumping is a little bit suspect, but I think he'll probably get away with that. And here's the bit you probably haven't heard anywhere else... I don't personally think there was a lot left in the tank last time out after he cruised past the opposition at Leopardstown and in my view he will need to improve a bit on that to win today - at odds on he is no value and I will be laying. Apart from the dent in my pocket, I would be delighted to see him win - connections have conducted themselves with good grace all winter and have been an open book with regards to their plans for the horse, unlike some others.
I don't like Get Me Out Of Here, the second favourite. His head carriage was all over the shop at Newbury last time and an awkward head carriage, the Cheltenham hill, and odds of around 9/2 won't see me running up to Paddy Power's counter to have 50 quid each-way on in the vain hope that this is a two horse race. He has his chance and is no doubt a very good horse, but he's not for me in this race and is no value.
Personally, I would rather be a Dunguib layer than back another horse in this race. However, the two I do like from a value perspective are Blackstairmountain and General Miller.
Blackstairmountain sees Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh team up, and he will be popular with the Irish each-way bandits. The selection was impressive on his only start over hurdles, jumping nicely and winning very cosily, posting an RPR of 135 in the process on ground which would not be his ideal. Mullins has stated on numerous occasions that he will improve on good ground, and if he does he will be close enough to the level needed to win here. He is relatively inexperienced and that is the only reason I'm laying the favourite rather than backing this fella each-way - he could well be good enough but his jumping will need to be excellent.
General Miller is a nice horse of Nicky Hendersons, who has a course record of 1,2. His second was on soft ground over 2m4 1/2f which seemed to stretch him, and his win over 2m1f here interests me far more. He put his head down and battled that day and he looks just the sort to relish the hustle and bustle of a big field around here. He looks the stable second string on jockey bookings but has excellent credentials for a race like this and 25/1 is an insult to what he has achieved so far.
Look out for Far Away So Close to improve for a big field and better ground (sired by Norwich) - he is a monster price and I won't recommend him on what he has done up to now but I do find it interesting that Paul Nolan has sent him over.
>Recommendation:
LAY Dunguib @ 1.95 - Successful Lay - "Banker of the meeting" laid at odds on!
or
Blackstairmountain each-way @ 10/1
General Miller each-way @ 22/1 (Both with Paddy Power - guaranteed prices and refund if Dunguib wins)
2.05 Cheltenham - The Arkle Chase
A strong renewal. I'm going to oppose Captain Cee Bee here, he has a very high cruising speed and course form but his fall in Ireland when he looked in control against Sizing Europe didn't look too good, and he made another mistake last time although winning impressively in the end. Sizing Europe is another I can't have, he looked held by Captain Cee Bee in that race, and despite his decent record over fences he is not for me.
Somersby represents a trainer who has taken a lot of stick in recent times but I think she has a really nice horse on her hands here. His defeat of Crack Away Jack is, for me, the best piece of form on offer here and if he reproduces that he can win today. His time that day was 1.8 seconds better than Twist Magic's time in the Tingle Creek and I think that says a lot about how good a novice chase it was, despite the small field. Choc Thornton is booked to ride today and he rides the track supremely well. 4/1 looks a fair price.
Of the bigger prices, Nicky Henderson's Mad Max looks like the wild card who just might upset the applecart if everything falls into place for him. Nicky has gone to the trouble of booking Paul Carberry to ride and the two look like a match made in heaven. Mad Max has a high cruising speed and treats fences with disdain if he is given confidence, and he strikes me as just the type of horse Carberry rides for Noel Meade week in, week out. I'm hoping Carberry switches him right off and rides him like a non-trier, only producing him coming up the hill. At odds of 28/1, this giant horse looks overpriced on his best previous efforts and should run a decent race.
>Recommendation:
Somersby to win @ 4/1 (Bet 365 - Free bet to same stake if Somersby wins at 4/1 or better)
Mad Max each-way @ 28/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
2.40 Cheltenham - The William Hill Trophy
The usual 24 runner madness here, and it should be fantastic to watch as ever with every chance of a surprising result. I will probably have a couple of very small, fun each-way bets but I don't generally go big on this race.
Having said that, Nenuphar Collonges looks like decent each-way value at 20/1. The selection represents Alan King, who has an excellent festival record, indeed the 9yo has some serious course form in his favour, with a record of 2,1,1,3 at Cheltenham and a damn good record after a short break too (108 day absence to overcome here). He is 2lb higher than when third in this race last year, but he has a nice sub-11 stone racing weight and I really can't see what there is not to like about his profile. As good a 20/1 each-way shot as you'll get.
Nigel Twiston Davies' Knowhere showed improved form for the reapplication of blinkers ten days ago at Newbury. That was in a veterans chase, but he ran 9lb above his current handicap mark and has sneaked in here off the same mark today. As a 12yo, it is a big "if" as to whether he can repeat that form here, but he has had some of his best days at Cheltenham and he doesn't appear to have lost any of his enthusiasm. Odds of 50/1 are too big and he is worthy of each-way support.
Recommendation:
Knowhere each-way @ 50/1 (Bet 365 1/4 odds first 5 places, guaranteed)
Nenuphar Collonges each-way @ 20/1 (Generally - get 1/4 odds first 5 places, guaranteed)
2.10 Cheltenham - The Champion Hurdle
An intruiging renewal, as ever.
So much has been written about this race, and you could argue until the cows come home but I think if it were run ten times, you might get three or four different winners. In the end, I've come down on the side of Binocular because I think todays race conditions will see him improve more than any other horse. He has strong festival form, having come 2nd in the Supreme Novices as a 4yo, and third in the Champion Hurdle on unsuitable ground as a 5yo. The ground has come right for him today, and a recent deluge of support has seen him challenge Punjabi as Henderson's foremost contender.
His run in the fighting fifth was poor enough, but he may have needed the race then. I cast my mind back to the 2007-2008 season, when a brilliant Harchibald absolutely shat on Katchit in the fighting fifth, making him look like a paceless plater in the process, only for Katchit to completely reverse that form at Cheltenham in March with a battling win.
Binocular improved second time out, finishing only 1 1/4 lengths off Go Native in the Christmas Hurdle despite a bad mistake three out and jumping left in places. He won handy last time out in his prep race, and I just have a feeling the sun has got on his back at the right time this year - recent reports from Tony McCoy have been unusually upbeat after a season of disappointment, and I reckon the Henderson team fancy his chances for this race. It seems fitness is not an issue, he has overcome a recent setback, and with the money pouring in at the right time, he is the each-way selection at around 8/1.
Recommendation:
Binocular each-way @ 8/1 (Generally, guaranteed) WON @ 9/1 - Champion Hurdle winner in the bag!
4.00 Cheltenham - The X-Country Chase
A fun race to watch, but I will not be getting involved. Enda Bolger farms this race and his Garde Champetre is good enough to win at 9/4 with William Hill.
Recommendation:
Garde Champetre @ 9/4 (WIlliam Hill, guaranteed)
4.40 Cheltenham - The David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
This will probably be dominated by the top two in the betting but the cold fact is that neither has had an uninterrupted preparation, and I will take them on each-way with No One Tells Me of Jessica Harringtons. She has two lengths to find with Voler La Vedette on December form, but it's March now and the better ground is what this mare wants. She has been trained with this race in mind all season, and her preparation has gone well - strike off the form of her prep run last time, the ground was too soft and she wasn't exactly knocked about because today has always been the plan. She is an improving horse who remains unexposed, and although she has a bit to find with the market leaders on the book, she is good each-way value at around 12/1 or better.
Recommendation:
No One Tells Me each-way @ 12/1 (VC Bet, Coral - guaranteed)
Friday, March 12, 2010
Subscription Rates 2010
Main Service:
One Month: £50
Two Months: £90
Three Months: £130
Six Months: £240
SMS Text Service (Add on):
Add £10 per month required, or £30 for six months.
One Month: £50
Two Months: £90
Three Months: £130
Six Months: £240
SMS Text Service (Add on):
Add £10 per month required, or £30 for six months.
Maximum Bets 2009/2010
As a few of you requested, here is the list of our maximum bets from the start of 2009. I might also add in a quote below from our analysis the day after the Baylini maximum bet in January, which kind of explains my perspective on a maximum bet. I know that sounds a bit ego-trippy, but I think there is good sense in it to be honest!
"...a confident bet at something like even money is NEVER a max for me, it doesn't make sense - a max should pay your large risk off handsomely..."
2009
2nd January Zaffeu 5pts e/w - - e/w 2nd @ 9/1 +6.25
27th January Sabancaya 10pts win - - won @ 4/1 +40pts
1st February Dazzling Begum 5pts e/w - - ew 2nd 8/1 +3pts
25th June Chief Red Cloud 5pts e/w - - won 10/1 +62.50
26th August Promise Maker 5pts e/w - - e/w 2nd 10/1 +5
28th August Dance Card 5pts e/w - - won 16/1 +106
17th September Kanpai 5pts e/w - - unplaced 12/1 -10
30th September Rowan Tiger 5pts e/w - - won 9/1 +66.25
5th November Forest Crown 5pts e/w - - won 7/1 +42.0
2010
16th January Baylini 5pts e/w - - e/w 2nd 14/1 +12.5
11th March Gra Adhmhar 5pts e/w - - e/w 2nd 8/1 +3pts
"...a confident bet at something like even money is NEVER a max for me, it doesn't make sense - a max should pay your large risk off handsomely..."
2009
2nd January Zaffeu 5pts e/w - - e/w 2nd @ 9/1 +6.25
27th January Sabancaya 10pts win - - won @ 4/1 +40pts
1st February Dazzling Begum 5pts e/w - - ew 2nd 8/1 +3pts
25th June Chief Red Cloud 5pts e/w - - won 10/1 +62.50
26th August Promise Maker 5pts e/w - - e/w 2nd 10/1 +5
28th August Dance Card 5pts e/w - - won 16/1 +106
17th September Kanpai 5pts e/w - - unplaced 12/1 -10
30th September Rowan Tiger 5pts e/w - - won 9/1 +66.25
5th November Forest Crown 5pts e/w - - won 7/1 +42.0
2010
16th January Baylini 5pts e/w - - e/w 2nd 14/1 +12.5
11th March Gra Adhmhar 5pts e/w - - e/w 2nd 8/1 +3pts
Thursday March 11th - Maximum Bet
Our first maximum bet since January today.
In the 6.30pm extended 1m1f103yds maiden, the price on the excellent Denis Coakley's representative Gra Adhmhar looks far too big, and in a maiden which looks less competitive than at first glance, he rates maximum material with the dead eight runners taking part. Denis Coakley boasts an excellent 18% strike rate in 3yo maidens and his 3yo's at this track have a formidable 19% strike rate, no mean achievement for a small stable. He also has a decent percentage of horses run into places, and his runners are generally always trying. He has booked Eddie Ahern (10% for stable, 18% on their 3yo's) to ride - Eddie shows up for two Coakley horses, this one and a 25/1 shot later on coming back off a long break, who looks a little exposed.
The selection ran a really good race last time out behind Peadar Miguel of Mick Quinlans, in 4th place behind a good horse of Marcus Tregonings who won for us on Monday. Gra Adhmhar was tenderly handled in general, running green towards the finish, but he picked up really well when Jimmy Quinn hit him one smack of the whip and was staying on nicely at the finish. On breeding, tonights step up to around ten furlongs is a positive and if he turns up more professional this time, he should probably win here with any improvement and if not, run a place at least. I think the price on My Nan Nell is too short, watch the video of her race last time - she doesn't quicken past any horses as such, rather the pace fell apart and everything stayed on from the back. Dr. Finley makes his seasonal reappearance and was fairly beaten at some low class meetings last year. Tregoning's horse has been weak enough in the early markets and Marcus's are improving for a run. Manxman has to reverse form with our selection, and I don't think his run last time was all that impressive - he was off the bridle a long way out against some very average / green horses (in the case of Power Series). 8/1 each-way looks cracking value for todays race and Gra Adhmhar is our first maximum bet since January.
Keep an eye on Magic Glade and Yourelikemefrank in the Southwell sprint, both should run better than their odds.
Best Recommendation:
6.30 Wolverhampton Gra Adhmhar, 5pts each-way @ 8/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed)
E/W 2nd - yet another profitable, big priced maximum!
In the 6.30pm extended 1m1f103yds maiden, the price on the excellent Denis Coakley's representative Gra Adhmhar looks far too big, and in a maiden which looks less competitive than at first glance, he rates maximum material with the dead eight runners taking part. Denis Coakley boasts an excellent 18% strike rate in 3yo maidens and his 3yo's at this track have a formidable 19% strike rate, no mean achievement for a small stable. He also has a decent percentage of horses run into places, and his runners are generally always trying. He has booked Eddie Ahern (10% for stable, 18% on their 3yo's) to ride - Eddie shows up for two Coakley horses, this one and a 25/1 shot later on coming back off a long break, who looks a little exposed.
The selection ran a really good race last time out behind Peadar Miguel of Mick Quinlans, in 4th place behind a good horse of Marcus Tregonings who won for us on Monday. Gra Adhmhar was tenderly handled in general, running green towards the finish, but he picked up really well when Jimmy Quinn hit him one smack of the whip and was staying on nicely at the finish. On breeding, tonights step up to around ten furlongs is a positive and if he turns up more professional this time, he should probably win here with any improvement and if not, run a place at least. I think the price on My Nan Nell is too short, watch the video of her race last time - she doesn't quicken past any horses as such, rather the pace fell apart and everything stayed on from the back. Dr. Finley makes his seasonal reappearance and was fairly beaten at some low class meetings last year. Tregoning's horse has been weak enough in the early markets and Marcus's are improving for a run. Manxman has to reverse form with our selection, and I don't think his run last time was all that impressive - he was off the bridle a long way out against some very average / green horses (in the case of Power Series). 8/1 each-way looks cracking value for todays race and Gra Adhmhar is our first maximum bet since January.
Keep an eye on Magic Glade and Yourelikemefrank in the Southwell sprint, both should run better than their odds.
Best Recommendation:
6.30 Wolverhampton Gra Adhmhar, 5pts each-way @ 8/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed)
E/W 2nd - yet another profitable, big priced maximum!
Wednesday March 10th
Two for today.
War Of The Roses is a serious horse around Lingfield and he looks to have been entered into this claimer off a favourable weight today. Odds on favourite Hurakan is his main danger but has not won over course and distance, something War Of The Roses specialises in. Tony Carroll's horse looks the other one with a chance but I think the selection is excellent value with many of his stablemates running much better of late.
Ateos represents Marcus Tregoning in the 7f maiden, Marcus sent out our big winner on Monday, also at this course in a 3yo maiden. Barring a newcomer winning, I think he takes the beating today. He looked an imposing but immature physical type at Goodwood last summer, sent off 10/3 in a hot maiden, and he ran with plenty of promise. He impressed me that day a lot more then Mark Johnston's representative in this race did on his debut at Wolves - he was readily left behind despite his expensive price tag.
Best Recommendation:
2.30 Lingfield War Of The Roses 4pts win @ 11/4 (Generally, guaranteed) Won @ 7/2
3.30 Lingfield Aetos, 5pts win @ 7/4 (Generally, get guaranteed)
War Of The Roses is a serious horse around Lingfield and he looks to have been entered into this claimer off a favourable weight today. Odds on favourite Hurakan is his main danger but has not won over course and distance, something War Of The Roses specialises in. Tony Carroll's horse looks the other one with a chance but I think the selection is excellent value with many of his stablemates running much better of late.
Ateos represents Marcus Tregoning in the 7f maiden, Marcus sent out our big winner on Monday, also at this course in a 3yo maiden. Barring a newcomer winning, I think he takes the beating today. He looked an imposing but immature physical type at Goodwood last summer, sent off 10/3 in a hot maiden, and he ran with plenty of promise. He impressed me that day a lot more then Mark Johnston's representative in this race did on his debut at Wolves - he was readily left behind despite his expensive price tag.
Best Recommendation:
2.30 Lingfield War Of The Roses 4pts win @ 11/4 (Generally, guaranteed) Won @ 7/2
3.30 Lingfield Aetos, 5pts win @ 7/4 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Tuesday March 9th
Good profits yesterday.
Two slightly more speculative bets today.
Apache Moon represents Roger Curtis and I fins him interesting in Southwell's 6f handicap (4.10) at a big price. The selection travelled really well on this surface in a good maiden (for the time of year) back in January, before fading late on. The selection has not been seeing out his races, but he did race over a mile last time which is too far for him. The handicapper has dropped him 5lb after that effort and he now drops in grade running off a mark of 60. Kevin Ghunowa takes the ride and if first time blinkers wake him up a bit, he can win this moderate contest.
Captain Kallis has attracted support this morning and I can see why. He gets a first time eyeshield and blinkers combo today, and for a horse who looks to have possibly shirked the issue once or twice lately, they might bring about the desired result. He has been punted recently once or twice for a yard who have been going well, and he is clearly in good fettle. 7f was too far last time and he is back to Southwell, the scene of his only win, today. He is out of Captain Rio, whose progeny do exceptionally well here. A wide draw looks a positive for me, he didn't seem to enjoy being up against the rail last time and if Stephen Craine can take him wide in the straight, he should see out this race a bit better. 11/1 is still available with Blue Square but anything around 9/1 or over is good value.
Best Recommendation:
4.10 Southwell Apache Moon, 2pts win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
5.40 Southwell Captain Kallis, 2pts win @ 11/1 (Blue Square, 9/1 and 10/1 generally available, get guaranteed)
Two slightly more speculative bets today.
Apache Moon represents Roger Curtis and I fins him interesting in Southwell's 6f handicap (4.10) at a big price. The selection travelled really well on this surface in a good maiden (for the time of year) back in January, before fading late on. The selection has not been seeing out his races, but he did race over a mile last time which is too far for him. The handicapper has dropped him 5lb after that effort and he now drops in grade running off a mark of 60. Kevin Ghunowa takes the ride and if first time blinkers wake him up a bit, he can win this moderate contest.
Captain Kallis has attracted support this morning and I can see why. He gets a first time eyeshield and blinkers combo today, and for a horse who looks to have possibly shirked the issue once or twice lately, they might bring about the desired result. He has been punted recently once or twice for a yard who have been going well, and he is clearly in good fettle. 7f was too far last time and he is back to Southwell, the scene of his only win, today. He is out of Captain Rio, whose progeny do exceptionally well here. A wide draw looks a positive for me, he didn't seem to enjoy being up against the rail last time and if Stephen Craine can take him wide in the straight, he should see out this race a bit better. 11/1 is still available with Blue Square but anything around 9/1 or over is good value.
Best Recommendation:
4.10 Southwell Apache Moon, 2pts win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
5.40 Southwell Captain Kallis, 2pts win @ 11/1 (Blue Square, 9/1 and 10/1 generally available, get guaranteed)
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Monday March 8th
One confident bet today.
Merqqaad ran a really good race first time up at Kempton for a trainer whose horses generally improve for their first run. He was not pushed about at all in the closing stages, he was green off the bridle but was essentially allowed to find his own way home. It was a really nice introduction to racing and this athletic horse should come on for that run to win this average looking contest today. The favourite looks a bit dodgy to me, his dam's sire is Woodman, whose progeny are notoriously quirky, and this fella hung his head badly to one side on his debut, before seeming to duck in under the whip late on. I think Jawal should be the second favourite here, and am happy with the 9/4.
Best Recommendation:
2.10 Lingfield Merqqaad 7pts win @ 9/4 (Paddy Power, Stan James - Guaranteed) Won @ 5/2
Merqqaad ran a really good race first time up at Kempton for a trainer whose horses generally improve for their first run. He was not pushed about at all in the closing stages, he was green off the bridle but was essentially allowed to find his own way home. It was a really nice introduction to racing and this athletic horse should come on for that run to win this average looking contest today. The favourite looks a bit dodgy to me, his dam's sire is Woodman, whose progeny are notoriously quirky, and this fella hung his head badly to one side on his debut, before seeming to duck in under the whip late on. I think Jawal should be the second favourite here, and am happy with the 9/4.
Best Recommendation:
2.10 Lingfield Merqqaad 7pts win @ 9/4 (Paddy Power, Stan James - Guaranteed) Won @ 5/2
Thursday March 4th
One of those days that we have a number of betting opportunities, and four bets.
In the 1m4f handicap at Southwell, Reverend Green makes plenty of appeal for the Kevin Ryan stable, stepping up in trip off a mark of 78. He won a bumper a this course before dropping right back down to a mile last time out for his flat debut, winning well in the end over a trip plenty sharp enough for him. He really took to this surface and struck me as a horse who will be rated 80+ in time. He has been allotted a fair mark of 78 and the excellent Amy Ryan takes off a further 5lb. Opposition is thin on the ground bar the favourite Spruce. Spruce has been busy racking up a sequence of wins but his win here came in a two runner race against a very moderate sort and it is anyone's guess how well he truly handles the surface. Reverend Green looks great value on that score and I would not be surprised to see him supported, 11/4 is great value.
Miss Christophene almost did us a 20/1 favour last time out and she is a shade too big at 2/1 this time. This is a fairly average race and she is a proven course and distance horse whose stable have been in excellent form. 13/8 is my idea of the price so she is worth a bet.
Bombay Mist is a huge price this morning for the 5f maiden but his trainer has an excellent record at this track, including in 5f maidens, and jockey Francis Norton has an 18% strike rate for the stable returning an incredible level stakes profit of +165. The selection simply glided of this surface in the early stages of his run last time out before fading late on as if something was amiss, a view supported by the fact that he has been given 113 days off since. In a poor race he is a speculative selection for a stable who have been in and out of form (currently out!) this winter, but at the odds he is definitely worth a bet.
At Wolves tonight, Leo's Lucky Angel is well worth each-way support. She was heavily backed on her return from a long absence last time out but failed to land the money. She travelled noticeably well initially, before blowing up on the home turn and staying on again near the finish. The booking of Ireland's best apprentice Gary Carroll, who takes off 3lb, really caught the eye and if three weeks off and a few more good pieces of work have blown away the cobwebs, she can land the spoils at a double figure price.
Best Recommendation:
3.40 Southwell Bombay Mist, 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
4.10 Southwell Reverend Green 5ps win @ 11/4 (Stan James, guaranteed)
4.40 Southwell Miss Christophene 5pts win @ 9/4 (Paddy Power, Bet 365, guaranteed)
8.10 Wolves Leo's Lucky Angel, 2pts e/w @ 12/1 (Stan James, William Hill, guaranteed)
In the 1m4f handicap at Southwell, Reverend Green makes plenty of appeal for the Kevin Ryan stable, stepping up in trip off a mark of 78. He won a bumper a this course before dropping right back down to a mile last time out for his flat debut, winning well in the end over a trip plenty sharp enough for him. He really took to this surface and struck me as a horse who will be rated 80+ in time. He has been allotted a fair mark of 78 and the excellent Amy Ryan takes off a further 5lb. Opposition is thin on the ground bar the favourite Spruce. Spruce has been busy racking up a sequence of wins but his win here came in a two runner race against a very moderate sort and it is anyone's guess how well he truly handles the surface. Reverend Green looks great value on that score and I would not be surprised to see him supported, 11/4 is great value.
Miss Christophene almost did us a 20/1 favour last time out and she is a shade too big at 2/1 this time. This is a fairly average race and she is a proven course and distance horse whose stable have been in excellent form. 13/8 is my idea of the price so she is worth a bet.
Bombay Mist is a huge price this morning for the 5f maiden but his trainer has an excellent record at this track, including in 5f maidens, and jockey Francis Norton has an 18% strike rate for the stable returning an incredible level stakes profit of +165. The selection simply glided of this surface in the early stages of his run last time out before fading late on as if something was amiss, a view supported by the fact that he has been given 113 days off since. In a poor race he is a speculative selection for a stable who have been in and out of form (currently out!) this winter, but at the odds he is definitely worth a bet.
At Wolves tonight, Leo's Lucky Angel is well worth each-way support. She was heavily backed on her return from a long absence last time out but failed to land the money. She travelled noticeably well initially, before blowing up on the home turn and staying on again near the finish. The booking of Ireland's best apprentice Gary Carroll, who takes off 3lb, really caught the eye and if three weeks off and a few more good pieces of work have blown away the cobwebs, she can land the spoils at a double figure price.
Best Recommendation:
3.40 Southwell Bombay Mist, 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
4.10 Southwell Reverend Green 5ps win @ 11/4 (Stan James, guaranteed)
4.40 Southwell Miss Christophene 5pts win @ 9/4 (Paddy Power, Bet 365, guaranteed)
8.10 Wolves Leo's Lucky Angel, 2pts e/w @ 12/1 (Stan James, William Hill, guaranteed)
Wednesday March 3rd
One confident bet for today.
One look at the run of Private Equity last time out will tell you the horse put in a better performance that the formbook tell you. The selection was coming back after a poor run in December, when it clearly ran below form and may have had a problem given that he was off the track for two months. The comeback run was full of encouragement, she pulled hard and got no cover at all and a wide trip under apprentice Ryan Clark, but she was not unduly punished once her chance had gone in the straight and in fairness the lad looked after her pretty well. She beat Leyte Gulf over todays course and distance last winter and to my mind, if you're doing that you're a decent handicapper at least. Leyte Gulf revels over a staying trip at Wolves and has improved a bundle this winter into a good stayer who can win class 4 handicaps. Private Equity is still on a mark of 56 after an interupted season, and she has been sent off favourite a number of times presumably because her in form yard know she is half decent. She should be able to improve on her recent form and, in a good race for the grade, she looks very good value with a decent professional back on board today.
Best Recommendation:
4.30 Wolves Private Equity 3pts e/w @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
One look at the run of Private Equity last time out will tell you the horse put in a better performance that the formbook tell you. The selection was coming back after a poor run in December, when it clearly ran below form and may have had a problem given that he was off the track for two months. The comeback run was full of encouragement, she pulled hard and got no cover at all and a wide trip under apprentice Ryan Clark, but she was not unduly punished once her chance had gone in the straight and in fairness the lad looked after her pretty well. She beat Leyte Gulf over todays course and distance last winter and to my mind, if you're doing that you're a decent handicapper at least. Leyte Gulf revels over a staying trip at Wolves and has improved a bundle this winter into a good stayer who can win class 4 handicaps. Private Equity is still on a mark of 56 after an interupted season, and she has been sent off favourite a number of times presumably because her in form yard know she is half decent. She should be able to improve on her recent form and, in a good race for the grade, she looks very good value with a decent professional back on board today.
Best Recommendation:
4.30 Wolves Private Equity 3pts e/w @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Tuesday March 2nd
Just one bet for today.
Mark Johnston has been farming all-weather maidens all winter and it surprises me to see his Marius Maximus at such a big price for the 6f maiden (2.40) at Lingfield this afternoon. The selection achieved little in a pair of maiden runs last summer but he did show plenty of early dash on his second start at Haydock, still looking green but challenging the well-regarded winner until he gave best around 2.5 furlongs out. He looked a green, immature sort of horse back then, just the type to make a much better 3yo. If he has filled out his frame since those two runs, then he is far too big a price at 9/1+ on the exchanges this morning after his five month break. Favourite Pippbrook Ministar has ability, but looks an OR 70 sort, and the second favourite is a Clive Brittain newcomer who looks under priced because of that stable's good recent form. I don't like backing horses first time out and that stable wouldn't be my idea of a FTO kind of yard. Neduardo looks ordinary, the Best horse I suppose has achieved as much as the selection but the yard aren't in anything like the form of Johnstons, and the market vibes are not great (which would worry me more with that stable). Mick Channon's Lockantanks is my idea of the danger, but as it stands I think Marius Maximus is excellent value. For those of you inclined to trade, I would suggest that the selections early speed might make him a decent trade at around 6/4 in running.
Best Recommendation:
2.40 Lingfield Marius Maximus, 3pts win @ 10.0+ (Betfair, Currently 12.0 - or take 8/1 guaranteed generally)
Mark Johnston has been farming all-weather maidens all winter and it surprises me to see his Marius Maximus at such a big price for the 6f maiden (2.40) at Lingfield this afternoon. The selection achieved little in a pair of maiden runs last summer but he did show plenty of early dash on his second start at Haydock, still looking green but challenging the well-regarded winner until he gave best around 2.5 furlongs out. He looked a green, immature sort of horse back then, just the type to make a much better 3yo. If he has filled out his frame since those two runs, then he is far too big a price at 9/1+ on the exchanges this morning after his five month break. Favourite Pippbrook Ministar has ability, but looks an OR 70 sort, and the second favourite is a Clive Brittain newcomer who looks under priced because of that stable's good recent form. I don't like backing horses first time out and that stable wouldn't be my idea of a FTO kind of yard. Neduardo looks ordinary, the Best horse I suppose has achieved as much as the selection but the yard aren't in anything like the form of Johnstons, and the market vibes are not great (which would worry me more with that stable). Mick Channon's Lockantanks is my idea of the danger, but as it stands I think Marius Maximus is excellent value. For those of you inclined to trade, I would suggest that the selections early speed might make him a decent trade at around 6/4 in running.
Best Recommendation:
2.40 Lingfield Marius Maximus, 3pts win @ 10.0+ (Betfair, Currently 12.0 - or take 8/1 guaranteed generally)
Monday March 1st
Just a note that our Champion Hurdle ante post will be out on Wednesday. We're confident with this one, it's a good price, can't say much more now other than we're pretty excited about this one.
A nice each-way on Saturday with Green Manalishi finishing second.
In the 2.40 at Wolves, unexpected support for Ed McMahon's first time out 3yo sees Fighter Boy relegated to fourth in the market and I think the 8/1 available on him represents excellent value. The selection represents a stable with a cracking record in three year old maidens, and an equally strong record at this track. He ran a really good race on his debut at Southwell, travelling well with a wide trip before fading, and although this is a hot little maiden, he might improve enough to take this on his second run. The stable could not be in better form and the 5lb claimer is well worth his allowance - he has ridden two recent winners for this stable.
Stateside represents Richard Fahey and is worth an each-way punt at massive odds for the extended mile handicap. On her best form she is better than these. Paul Hanagan has a god record on her, she takes a drop in class, and despite the fact that she has two bad polytrack performances to her name I think they can be excused. Fahey is in better form now than when she last ran, I'm interested they've kept her in training, and the price looks on the big side to me.
Best Recommendation:
2.40 Wolves Fighter Boy, 2pts each-way @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
3.40 Wolves Stateside, 2pts each-way @ 25/1 (Generally, Get guaranteed)
A nice each-way on Saturday with Green Manalishi finishing second.
In the 2.40 at Wolves, unexpected support for Ed McMahon's first time out 3yo sees Fighter Boy relegated to fourth in the market and I think the 8/1 available on him represents excellent value. The selection represents a stable with a cracking record in three year old maidens, and an equally strong record at this track. He ran a really good race on his debut at Southwell, travelling well with a wide trip before fading, and although this is a hot little maiden, he might improve enough to take this on his second run. The stable could not be in better form and the 5lb claimer is well worth his allowance - he has ridden two recent winners for this stable.
Stateside represents Richard Fahey and is worth an each-way punt at massive odds for the extended mile handicap. On her best form she is better than these. Paul Hanagan has a god record on her, she takes a drop in class, and despite the fact that she has two bad polytrack performances to her name I think they can be excused. Fahey is in better form now than when she last ran, I'm interested they've kept her in training, and the price looks on the big side to me.
Best Recommendation:
2.40 Wolves Fighter Boy, 2pts each-way @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
3.40 Wolves Stateside, 2pts each-way @ 25/1 (Generally, Get guaranteed)
Saturday February 27th
One bet today.
The 6f sprint at Lingfield looks an interesting race. Many of these have question marks about them but the first thing any form reader should see is the possibility of a pace burn up on the front end. Bel Cantor is drawn 1 and habitually likes to lead, and Arganil is one of the fastest early speed horses in training and is drawn 2 - indeed he prefers 5f in my opinion. Jaconet's best performances have all come with an easy lead but he is unlikely to get that from stall 7 without undue early exertion. This race could set up for something from off the pace. It would be a fair shock if Bel Cantor or Brunelleschi got involved in the finish. This leaves Ebraam, Green Manalishi, Smarten Die and Mullionmileanhour, and it looks to me as if Green Manalishi is the obvious bet with Kieren Fallon booked. Trainer Kevin Ryan also enters Arganil, but he is a lot better at 5f on all evidence to the date and could it be he is acting as a spoiler? Whatever, 15/2 on Green Manalishi, who has gone well fresh in the past, looks good each-way value here.
Best Recommendation:
3.50 Lingfield Green Manalishi, 3pts each-way @ 15/2 (Generally) E/W 2nd @ 8/1
The 6f sprint at Lingfield looks an interesting race. Many of these have question marks about them but the first thing any form reader should see is the possibility of a pace burn up on the front end. Bel Cantor is drawn 1 and habitually likes to lead, and Arganil is one of the fastest early speed horses in training and is drawn 2 - indeed he prefers 5f in my opinion. Jaconet's best performances have all come with an easy lead but he is unlikely to get that from stall 7 without undue early exertion. This race could set up for something from off the pace. It would be a fair shock if Bel Cantor or Brunelleschi got involved in the finish. This leaves Ebraam, Green Manalishi, Smarten Die and Mullionmileanhour, and it looks to me as if Green Manalishi is the obvious bet with Kieren Fallon booked. Trainer Kevin Ryan also enters Arganil, but he is a lot better at 5f on all evidence to the date and could it be he is acting as a spoiler? Whatever, 15/2 on Green Manalishi, who has gone well fresh in the past, looks good each-way value here.
Best Recommendation:
3.50 Lingfield Green Manalishi, 3pts each-way @ 15/2 (Generally) E/W 2nd @ 8/1
Friday February26th
No return yesterday but we didn't go too heavy on any of the bets and we're still nicely up for the week.
Two bets today.
Magic Mille ran really well on her fibresand debut last time out and if she had had the assistance of a stronger jockey, may have overhauled the eventual winner. She looks well handicapped off a mark of 50 and gets the services of a 5lb claimer today who rides this track well and is worth his claim. The market principals looks to have been priced up on stable and stable form rather than what they have achieved on the track, and odds of 7/1 on Magic Millie improving again look too big.
Highland River looks excellent value at 14/1+ in the 1m4f handicap. The selection has been in good form lately and ran a decent race over course and distance last time in a better race than this. He holds Mister Frosty by six lengths on form over 1m4f here two runs ago, so quite why that rival is priced up as half the price Highland River is beggars belief. The small stable do well with their runners at the course and although Highland River will need to improve again to beat Merrion Tiger, his profile this year suggests that he should not be 16/1 to do so.
Best Recommendation:
3.40 Southwell Magic Millie, 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
5.15 Southwell Highland River, 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Sporting Bet, 14/1 generally guaranteed)
Two bets today.
Magic Mille ran really well on her fibresand debut last time out and if she had had the assistance of a stronger jockey, may have overhauled the eventual winner. She looks well handicapped off a mark of 50 and gets the services of a 5lb claimer today who rides this track well and is worth his claim. The market principals looks to have been priced up on stable and stable form rather than what they have achieved on the track, and odds of 7/1 on Magic Millie improving again look too big.
Highland River looks excellent value at 14/1+ in the 1m4f handicap. The selection has been in good form lately and ran a decent race over course and distance last time in a better race than this. He holds Mister Frosty by six lengths on form over 1m4f here two runs ago, so quite why that rival is priced up as half the price Highland River is beggars belief. The small stable do well with their runners at the course and although Highland River will need to improve again to beat Merrion Tiger, his profile this year suggests that he should not be 16/1 to do so.
Best Recommendation:
3.40 Southwell Magic Millie, 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
5.15 Southwell Highland River, 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Sporting Bet, 14/1 generally guaranteed)
Thursday February 25th
More profits yesterday with Sinbad The Sailor winning well. Our 10/3 looked huge as he was supported into 7/4.
A massive four bets for us today. Be very careful to stick to the correct staking as always! It is particularly important on days like today. One winner will put us in profit for the day, two winners and we're quids in.
Dan Bouy stays three miles plus over hurdles and I've been waiting for him to step up to a marathon trip at Southwell for a few weeks now. He can be keen, but if he does settle today he has every chance off this handicap mark in this contest. 13/2 looks a little big, I'd price him up as a 5/1 chance myself and he is worth a small win bet.
Tony Culhane is riding Southwell as well as anyone these days and it is interesting he shows up for just the one ride today, on Kledester in the 7f handicap. The selection is a course and distance winner, and represents a small stable who have had a couple of recent runners go well. His reappearance and debut for the yard at Wolverhampton was encouraging, and the 6/1 available looks fair value in a moderate race.
Harting Hill is the bet of the day, at Kempton. He looks like the sort who saves a bit for himself and he travelled like a horse who is ahead of the handicapper when winning last time. He is better than a 62 rated handicapper and if he responds as well for Hayley Turner as George Baker, he should win. 11/4 is too big, I make him a 2/1 shot.
Drubinca represents a trainer whose horses often improve for their handicap debut, and if the handbrake is off today, this son of Dubai Destination should improve for the step up to a mile and the polytrack surface. His run at Warwick last time out was eye catching, he kept changing his legs and did not enjoy the good to firm ground. That contest has worked out well and he is probably better than a low grade handicapper - it is just a matter of when he will show his best.
Best Recommendation:
3.15 Southwell Dan Bouy, 3pts win @ 13/2 (William Hill, guaranteed)
4.50 Southwell Kladester, 4pts win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
8.10 Kempton Harting Hill, 5pts win @ 11/4 (William Hill, guaranteed)
9.10 Kempton Drubinca, 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
A massive four bets for us today. Be very careful to stick to the correct staking as always! It is particularly important on days like today. One winner will put us in profit for the day, two winners and we're quids in.
Dan Bouy stays three miles plus over hurdles and I've been waiting for him to step up to a marathon trip at Southwell for a few weeks now. He can be keen, but if he does settle today he has every chance off this handicap mark in this contest. 13/2 looks a little big, I'd price him up as a 5/1 chance myself and he is worth a small win bet.
Tony Culhane is riding Southwell as well as anyone these days and it is interesting he shows up for just the one ride today, on Kledester in the 7f handicap. The selection is a course and distance winner, and represents a small stable who have had a couple of recent runners go well. His reappearance and debut for the yard at Wolverhampton was encouraging, and the 6/1 available looks fair value in a moderate race.
Harting Hill is the bet of the day, at Kempton. He looks like the sort who saves a bit for himself and he travelled like a horse who is ahead of the handicapper when winning last time. He is better than a 62 rated handicapper and if he responds as well for Hayley Turner as George Baker, he should win. 11/4 is too big, I make him a 2/1 shot.
Drubinca represents a trainer whose horses often improve for their handicap debut, and if the handbrake is off today, this son of Dubai Destination should improve for the step up to a mile and the polytrack surface. His run at Warwick last time out was eye catching, he kept changing his legs and did not enjoy the good to firm ground. That contest has worked out well and he is probably better than a low grade handicapper - it is just a matter of when he will show his best.
Best Recommendation:
3.15 Southwell Dan Bouy, 3pts win @ 13/2 (William Hill, guaranteed)
4.50 Southwell Kladester, 4pts win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
8.10 Kempton Harting Hill, 5pts win @ 11/4 (William Hill, guaranteed)
9.10 Kempton Drubinca, 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)