Just a note first that Bet 365 are apparently going best price on all horses in all races for the week of the festival. They also give you a free bet to the same stake if you back the winner of any race on Channel 4 at an S.P. of 4/1 or better. I'd say take advantage of Paddy Power's Dunguib offer for the Supreme, and use Bet 365 for the rest of the races.
Day one of the festival and it's cracking stuff right the way through the card.
1.30 Cheltenham - The Supreme Novices Hurdle
An fascinating renewal of the Supreme Novices. I have been opposing the favourite, Dunguib, for this contest all winter. Split second reactions win or lose these big Cheltenham races and with an amateur pilot on board, I think Dunguib is at a slight disadvantage. He has never raced on ground as quick as he will get today. His jumping is a little bit suspect, but I think he'll probably get away with that. And here's the bit you probably haven't heard anywhere else... I don't personally think there was a lot left in the tank last time out after he cruised past the opposition at Leopardstown and in my view he will need to improve a bit on that to win today - at odds on he is no value and I will be laying. Apart from the dent in my pocket, I would be delighted to see him win - connections have conducted themselves with good grace all winter and have been an open book with regards to their plans for the horse, unlike some others.
I don't like Get Me Out Of Here, the second favourite. His head carriage was all over the shop at Newbury last time and an awkward head carriage, the Cheltenham hill, and odds of around 9/2 won't see me running up to Paddy Power's counter to have 50 quid each-way on in the vain hope that this is a two horse race. He has his chance and is no doubt a very good horse, but he's not for me in this race and is no value.
Personally, I would rather be a Dunguib layer than back another horse in this race. However, the two I do like from a value perspective are Blackstairmountain and General Miller.
Blackstairmountain sees Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh team up, and he will be popular with the Irish each-way bandits. The selection was impressive on his only start over hurdles, jumping nicely and winning very cosily, posting an RPR of 135 in the process on ground which would not be his ideal. Mullins has stated on numerous occasions that he will improve on good ground, and if he does he will be close enough to the level needed to win here. He is relatively inexperienced and that is the only reason I'm laying the favourite rather than backing this fella each-way - he could well be good enough but his jumping will need to be excellent.
General Miller is a nice horse of Nicky Hendersons, who has a course record of 1,2. His second was on soft ground over 2m4 1/2f which seemed to stretch him, and his win over 2m1f here interests me far more. He put his head down and battled that day and he looks just the sort to relish the hustle and bustle of a big field around here. He looks the stable second string on jockey bookings but has excellent credentials for a race like this and 25/1 is an insult to what he has achieved so far.
Look out for Far Away So Close to improve for a big field and better ground (sired by Norwich) - he is a monster price and I won't recommend him on what he has done up to now but I do find it interesting that Paul Nolan has sent him over.
>Recommendation:
LAY Dunguib @ 1.95 - Successful Lay - "Banker of the meeting" laid at odds on!
or
Blackstairmountain each-way @ 10/1
General Miller each-way @ 22/1 (Both with Paddy Power - guaranteed prices and refund if Dunguib wins)
2.05 Cheltenham - The Arkle Chase
A strong renewal. I'm going to oppose Captain Cee Bee here, he has a very high cruising speed and course form but his fall in Ireland when he looked in control against Sizing Europe didn't look too good, and he made another mistake last time although winning impressively in the end. Sizing Europe is another I can't have, he looked held by Captain Cee Bee in that race, and despite his decent record over fences he is not for me.
Somersby represents a trainer who has taken a lot of stick in recent times but I think she has a really nice horse on her hands here. His defeat of Crack Away Jack is, for me, the best piece of form on offer here and if he reproduces that he can win today. His time that day was 1.8 seconds better than Twist Magic's time in the Tingle Creek and I think that says a lot about how good a novice chase it was, despite the small field. Choc Thornton is booked to ride today and he rides the track supremely well. 4/1 looks a fair price.
Of the bigger prices, Nicky Henderson's Mad Max looks like the wild card who just might upset the applecart if everything falls into place for him. Nicky has gone to the trouble of booking Paul Carberry to ride and the two look like a match made in heaven. Mad Max has a high cruising speed and treats fences with disdain if he is given confidence, and he strikes me as just the type of horse Carberry rides for Noel Meade week in, week out. I'm hoping Carberry switches him right off and rides him like a non-trier, only producing him coming up the hill. At odds of 28/1, this giant horse looks overpriced on his best previous efforts and should run a decent race.
>Recommendation:
Somersby to win @ 4/1 (Bet 365 - Free bet to same stake if Somersby wins at 4/1 or better)
Mad Max each-way @ 28/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
2.40 Cheltenham - The William Hill Trophy
The usual 24 runner madness here, and it should be fantastic to watch as ever with every chance of a surprising result. I will probably have a couple of very small, fun each-way bets but I don't generally go big on this race.
Having said that, Nenuphar Collonges looks like decent each-way value at 20/1. The selection represents Alan King, who has an excellent festival record, indeed the 9yo has some serious course form in his favour, with a record of 2,1,1,3 at Cheltenham and a damn good record after a short break too (108 day absence to overcome here). He is 2lb higher than when third in this race last year, but he has a nice sub-11 stone racing weight and I really can't see what there is not to like about his profile. As good a 20/1 each-way shot as you'll get.
Nigel Twiston Davies' Knowhere showed improved form for the reapplication of blinkers ten days ago at Newbury. That was in a veterans chase, but he ran 9lb above his current handicap mark and has sneaked in here off the same mark today. As a 12yo, it is a big "if" as to whether he can repeat that form here, but he has had some of his best days at Cheltenham and he doesn't appear to have lost any of his enthusiasm. Odds of 50/1 are too big and he is worthy of each-way support.
Recommendation:
Knowhere each-way @ 50/1 (Bet 365 1/4 odds first 5 places, guaranteed)
Nenuphar Collonges each-way @ 20/1 (Generally - get 1/4 odds first 5 places, guaranteed)
2.10 Cheltenham - The Champion Hurdle
An intruiging renewal, as ever.
So much has been written about this race, and you could argue until the cows come home but I think if it were run ten times, you might get three or four different winners. In the end, I've come down on the side of Binocular because I think todays race conditions will see him improve more than any other horse. He has strong festival form, having come 2nd in the Supreme Novices as a 4yo, and third in the Champion Hurdle on unsuitable ground as a 5yo. The ground has come right for him today, and a recent deluge of support has seen him challenge Punjabi as Henderson's foremost contender.
His run in the fighting fifth was poor enough, but he may have needed the race then. I cast my mind back to the 2007-2008 season, when a brilliant Harchibald absolutely shat on Katchit in the fighting fifth, making him look like a paceless plater in the process, only for Katchit to completely reverse that form at Cheltenham in March with a battling win.
Binocular improved second time out, finishing only 1 1/4 lengths off Go Native in the Christmas Hurdle despite a bad mistake three out and jumping left in places. He won handy last time out in his prep race, and I just have a feeling the sun has got on his back at the right time this year - recent reports from Tony McCoy have been unusually upbeat after a season of disappointment, and I reckon the Henderson team fancy his chances for this race. It seems fitness is not an issue, he has overcome a recent setback, and with the money pouring in at the right time, he is the each-way selection at around 8/1.
Recommendation:
Binocular each-way @ 8/1 (Generally, guaranteed) WON @ 9/1 - Champion Hurdle winner in the bag!
4.00 Cheltenham - The X-Country Chase
A fun race to watch, but I will not be getting involved. Enda Bolger farms this race and his Garde Champetre is good enough to win at 9/4 with William Hill.
Recommendation:
Garde Champetre @ 9/4 (WIlliam Hill, guaranteed)
4.40 Cheltenham - The David Nicholson Mares Hurdle
This will probably be dominated by the top two in the betting but the cold fact is that neither has had an uninterrupted preparation, and I will take them on each-way with No One Tells Me of Jessica Harringtons. She has two lengths to find with Voler La Vedette on December form, but it's March now and the better ground is what this mare wants. She has been trained with this race in mind all season, and her preparation has gone well - strike off the form of her prep run last time, the ground was too soft and she wasn't exactly knocked about because today has always been the plan. She is an improving horse who remains unexposed, and although she has a bit to find with the market leaders on the book, she is good each-way value at around 12/1 or better.
Recommendation:
No One Tells Me each-way @ 12/1 (VC Bet, Coral - guaranteed)
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