Some crazy results yesterday but we had Michael Flips e/w @ 33/1, Poker De Sivola won @ 14/1 (Adv 18/1) and you will have got paid on Summit Meeting 4th @ 10/1 with some bookmakers. Let down of the day was Master Minded.
1.30 Cheltenham - The Jewson Handicap Chase
Recommendation: China Rock each-way @ 9/1 (Generally) E/W 4th
China Rock is a good looking son of Presenting who outran 25/1 odds to finish third in last years Ballymore Hurdle. He has progresses slowly over fences but had run in some really hot races in Ireland this winter on unsuitably slow ground. He could be the type of horse who shows his best at Cheltenham each year. His form behind Sizing Europe, Pandorama (possible non stayer on yielding ground over 24f) and Roberta Goldback looks strong and more than once he looked like winning one of those events. He posted an RPR of 150 over hurdles here last year, and I think he looks quite well handicapped off 141 today. Slippers Madden needs a high profile winner and it would be nice to see him boot (no pun intended) this one home today.
2.05 Cheltenham - The Pertemps Final
Recommendation:
Time Electric each-way @ 20/1 (Make sure to back with bookmaker paying 5 places)
Smoking Aces each-way @ 10/1 (Make sure to back with bookmaker paying 5 places)
Time Electric looks an ideal horse for this event. He has failed so far to live up to his debut bumper win but I noted him running well on numerous occasions last Autumn when things, for one reason or another, didn't pan out his way. His performance here in November was eye catching, and straight away I thought connections would save his handicap mark for this race, which it seems they have done. I think he'll run very well and should be in the first 5.
Anything Tom Taaffe sends over merits respect and Smoking Aces boasts some very decent Irish form and I think Tom will be sending the English handicapper a case of guinness if he wins this. I would be very happy about him getting in here off 135 after posting an RPR of 142 last time out in Ireland. He is fancied and the excellent Paddy Flood takes the ride.
2.40 Cheltenham - The Ryanair Chase
Recommendation:
Alberta's Run to win @ 16/1 (Generally) WON - Advised @ 25/1 Ante Post to our clients
Barber's Shop to win @ 6/1 (Generally)
We've backed these two ante post and there's no need to change anything at this stage if you're already on. Barber Shop is classy, and he finally steps back to his ideal distance today. The King George form looks strong and it is often forgotten that horses who run in the King George have a very decent record at Cheltenham. Stable and jockey are in excellent form. Alberta's Run is the danger on his best form. He looks a big price for a previous Sun Alliance winner and King George second. His form this year has been up there with his best and 16/1 is too big.
3.20 Cheltenham - The World Hurdle
Question Marks about many Big Buck's challengers here - many of them are hard to fancy on the book with respect to turning recent form around with the Champ. The Cleeve Hurdle is traditionally a good trial for this race, however, and Tidal Bay's victory in this years renewal really caught my attention. He is a fair bit shorter than Time For Rupert who reopposes off 4lb better for a good reason - Tidal Bay had loads in hand that day. He travelled supremely well, came around the outside to challenge, and really stayed well. As a horse with top class Cheltenham experience, he rates the number one challenger and 8/1 each-way is very fair.
Lie Forrit hasn't been seen since bombing out in the Cleeve, but take out that run and he is a very progressive stayer. His handicap win at Newbury on his previous run was awesome, he ate up the ground giving loads of weight away and stayed really well. He was sent off favourite for the Cleeve but put in a bad one, apparently not fit enough after snow hampered Willie Amos' training facilities. Is one run enough to write him off as a 66/1 chance? I think not.
Recommendation:
Tidal Bay each-way @ 8/1 (Generally)
Lie Forrit each-way @ 66/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
4.00 Cheltenham - The Byrne Group Plate
I'm So Lucky caught the eye on both occasions he has run this season. He was wrongly pulled up when going very well first time up (Tom Scudamore thought he was lame, but he was not - we were on him at a huge price that day!), and he was brought down by a faller when travelling like the winner last time out. I think he is very well in at the weights, and he can win this with better luck.
In Compliance gets in off 149 here and I think that is very fair considering he is a Grade 1 horse on his best form. The 10yo is getting on, but he is very lightly raced for a horse his age and finally, finally he gets to travel over for a festival! It's a couple of years too late for a Championship race but on his best form he wins this.
Recommendation:
I'm So Lucky each-way @ 12/1 (Get paid 5 placesand guaranteed!)
In Compliance each-way @ 20/1 (Get paid 5 places and guaranteed!)
4.40 Cheltenham - The Kim Muir Chase
A decent renewal and not many of these can be struck off the list. Kia Kaha's run behind the talented Shining Gale last winter still sticks out in my mind, and I can't help but feel he hasn't had his conditions since. He has also received the odd strange ride, and I find him doubly interesting given that he has quickly dropped a stone in the weights and races off 130 here. If he returns to form on this better ground, he has every chance of getting competitive.
Recommendation:
Kia Kaha each-way @ 20/1 (Bet 365 and William Hill - 5 places paid and price guaranteed)
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