Thursday March 11th - Maximum Bet

Our first maximum bet since January today.

In the 6.30pm extended 1m1f103yds maiden, the price on the excellent Denis Coakley's representative Gra Adhmhar looks far too big, and in a maiden which looks less competitive than at first glance, he rates maximum material with the dead eight runners taking part. Denis Coakley boasts an excellent 18% strike rate in 3yo maidens and his 3yo's at this track have a formidable 19% strike rate, no mean achievement for a small stable. He also has a decent percentage of horses run into places, and his runners are generally always trying. He has booked Eddie Ahern (10% for stable, 18% on their 3yo's) to ride - Eddie shows up for two Coakley horses, this one and a 25/1 shot later on coming back off a long break, who looks a little exposed.

The selection ran a really good race last time out behind Peadar Miguel of Mick Quinlans, in 4th place behind a good horse of Marcus Tregonings who won for us on Monday. Gra Adhmhar was tenderly handled in general, running green towards the finish, but he picked up really well when Jimmy Quinn hit him one smack of the whip and was staying on nicely at the finish. On breeding, tonights step up to around ten furlongs is a positive and if he turns up more professional this time, he should probably win here with any improvement and if not, run a place at least. I think the price on My Nan Nell is too short, watch the video of her race last time - she doesn't quicken past any horses as such, rather the pace fell apart and everything stayed on from the back. Dr. Finley makes his seasonal reappearance and was fairly beaten at some low class meetings last year. Tregoning's horse has been weak enough in the early markets and Marcus's are improving for a run. Manxman has to reverse form with our selection, and I don't think his run last time was all that impressive - he was off the bridle a long way out against some very average / green horses (in the case of Power Series). 8/1 each-way looks cracking value for todays race and Gra Adhmhar is our first maximum bet since January.

Keep an eye on Magic Glade and Yourelikemefrank in the Southwell sprint, both should run better than their odds.


Best Recommendation:

6.30 Wolverhampton Gra Adhmhar, 5pts each-way @ 8/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed)

E/W 2nd - yet another profitable, big priced maximum!