Just one bet for today.
Mark Johnston has been farming all-weather maidens all winter and it surprises me to see his Marius Maximus at such a big price for the 6f maiden (2.40) at Lingfield this afternoon. The selection achieved little in a pair of maiden runs last summer but he did show plenty of early dash on his second start at Haydock, still looking green but challenging the well-regarded winner until he gave best around 2.5 furlongs out. He looked a green, immature sort of horse back then, just the type to make a much better 3yo. If he has filled out his frame since those two runs, then he is far too big a price at 9/1+ on the exchanges this morning after his five month break. Favourite Pippbrook Ministar has ability, but looks an OR 70 sort, and the second favourite is a Clive Brittain newcomer who looks under priced because of that stable's good recent form. I don't like backing horses first time out and that stable wouldn't be my idea of a FTO kind of yard. Neduardo looks ordinary, the Best horse I suppose has achieved as much as the selection but the yard aren't in anything like the form of Johnstons, and the market vibes are not great (which would worry me more with that stable). Mick Channon's Lockantanks is my idea of the danger, but as it stands I think Marius Maximus is excellent value. For those of you inclined to trade, I would suggest that the selections early speed might make him a decent trade at around 6/4 in running.
Best Recommendation:
2.40 Lingfield Marius Maximus, 3pts win @ 10.0+ (Betfair, Currently 12.0 - or take 8/1 guaranteed generally)
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