Happy St. Patricks Day to all! It's a particularly happy one for us with the Champion Hurdle winner in the bag. Binocular was awesome and 3pts each-way @ 9/1 S.P. puts us well ahead for the festival so far.
Another cracking day today and I can't wait.
1.30 Cheltenham - The National Hunt Chase
The festival four miler for amateur jockeys opens the card on day two. The value bet here looks to be Ferdy Murphy's Poker De Sivola. The selection won nicely at Catterick last time out and has a good record at Cheltenham. Ferdy has taken the trouble to book top Irish amateur Katie Walsh. Odds of 18/1 looks too big for a horse who has competed so well at this course in the past, representing a trainer with an excellent festival record.
At a bigger price, the progressive Youngstown represents value for the McCain team. The selection has a record of 1,1,2 over three miles plus and in my opinion may improve for better ground today despite the assertions of the Racing Post which seems to suggest the better ground will not suit. 40/1 is too big.
Recommendation:
Youngstown each-way @ 40/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
Poker De Sivola each-way @ 18/1 (Sporting Bet, Coral, guaranteed) WON
2.05 Cheltenham - The Neptune Novices Hurdle
Despite Dunguib's defeat yesterday, his form still looks high class and it catches my eye that Some Present has been looking at the back of his arse for most of the winter. A son of Presenting, he should improve for today's step up in trip and will have no problem on good ground. His form at this course back in November when staying on strongly behind Loosen My Load is strong, and should he repeat that level over this longer trip he has every chance of winning here. He is a massive price at 33/1.
Summit Meeting represents Jessica Harrington and looks a big price at 14/1 following three solid wins this season, with one bad run in between. He was said to have needed the run badly last time and if he improves on that today, he must go close in this contest. Robbie Power takes the ride.
Skybet are paying e/w on the first four home.
Recommendation:
Some Present e/w @ 33/1 (Generally, guaranteed - Skybet 4 places)
Summit Meeting e/w @ 14/1 (Sporting Bet, VC Bet guaranteed - Skybet 4 places) E/W 4th
2.40 Cheltenham - The Royal and Sun Alliance Chase
Long Run is the talk of all the preview nights but he does not jump well, and has a tendency to pull hard. Add to that the fact that he has an amateur jockey on board (albeit a decent one) and you have a favourite who makes no appeal. Punchestowns has been there and got the T-Shirt, his performance last year when second to Big Bucks in the stayers hurdle confirmed that he acts on this track and it is form of the highest order. He has run twice over fences and acquitted himself well, winning well on both occasions, and he seemed to learn from his mistakes on the latter occasion. 11/4 is still a fair price; he looks the class act.
Recommendation:
Punchestowns to win @ 11/4 (William Hill, guaranteed)
3.10 Cheltenham - The Queen Mother Champion Chase
We're on Master Minded at 7/4 from a few weeks back and there's no need to act again. Our maximum bet should be delivered barring a fall, which is a possibility - he does make the odd blunder. At his best, this lot won't get near him. Ruby Walsh schooled him last week and said he would win barring accidents - as jockeys go he's not a bad judge and I'm happy to sit on this bet.
Recommendation:
Already Advised - Master Minded to win @ 7/4 (Maximum Bet)
4.00 Cheltenham - The Coral Cup
Fantastic memories of this race for us, with Nintieth Minute beating Mirage D'Or last year to give us the 1-2 (you'll remember we backed both each-way, both 14/1) and Sky's The Limit, who done an incredible piece of work at Leopardstown before landing the odds for us at 11/1 by four lengths off top weight in 2006. A lot to live up to in a really strong renewal today, then!
Mick Quinlan's Silk Affair is our first selection. Mick Quinlan's talented mare travels well off a strong pace and is in off a mark which I think she can defy today. She carries 10-6 which is a really good racing weight and the excellent Timmy Murphy takes the ride. 16/1 is fair.
Michael Flips put in a monster performance in winning the Lanzarote by 8 lengths from the very decent Duc Du Regniere and although all his best form is on flat tracks, he is just too big to resist here at 33/1. He is a classy horse on his day and he can be excused his subsequent disappointment as he was turned out too quickly in my view.
Recommendation:
Michael Flips e/w @ 33/1 (Generally, guaranteed) E/W 4th
Silk Affair e/w @ 16/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
4.40 Cheltenham - The Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Handicap Hurdle
I'm happy to play two horses each-way in this race only because Bet 365 pay 1/4 odds 5 places. I strongly advise anyone betting to do likewise.
This is not a race I play heavily in anyway, but David Pipe's Hunterview has excellent claims on his recent form, and I'm particularly pleased to see the blinkers making a reappearance. His best form on the flat was achieved in headgear and I reckon it should have a galvanising effect today. Son Amix has every chance on his win last time out, but that was run on ground much softer than he will get today. It looks like the strongest piece of form on offer from my reading, and I'm happy to take the chance at odds of 16/1 that he can reproduces it today. It is dangerous to take heavy ground form literally but the odds definitely justify the risk.
Recommendation:
Hunterview each-way @ 17/2
Son Amix each-way @ 16/1
5.20 Cheltenham - The Champion Bumper
Ok, question time. Why is Al Ferof best priced 10/1, and joint second favourite with some firms, and Made In Time 28/1? The answer in my opinion is lazy form reading and high profile connections. Rebecca Curtis's gelding is now owned by J.P. McManus and to be honest I thought he should have gotten closer to Al Ferof last time out - he didn't settle early on and looked like he needed a stiffer test of stamina when it came to the business end of the race. I think today's conditions will suit him absolutely perfectly, a strong pace and the Cheltenham hill. McCoy has remained loyal and takes the ride. Here's a quote from the racing post after his last run:
"Ffos Las winner Made In Time hit the headlines earlier in the week when transferring to the ownership of JP McManus and was solid in the market. He took a little time to settle and that probably cost him a real chance of success as he was going best of all around four furlongs out. His response off the bridle was a game one, but he ultimately shaped as though a stiffer test was required. The future still looks bright for him."
There has been a lot of talk about Drumbaloo, and some good judges I know hold ante post vouchers at 25/1, but having missed that boat, I'm going to take a chance on an English winner this season!
Recommendation:
Made In Time each-way @ 28/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
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