A good day for us on Saturday with Khyber Kim winning for us at what looked incredible odds. I think he had Celestial Halo covered, but it's a jumping game and ifs and buts are irrelevant at the end of the day.
Great to see Tony McCoy winning the National and the publicity generated will only be good for racing. Our man Henry's trends gave him a very favourable mention but it's the hardest race of all in which to pick the winner.
No bets today, I can't be confident enough about anything to recommend putting your hard-earned down. Just to prove we're not being lazy here at Strikeline, however, a couple of pointers below.
Andy Haynes Lady Excellentia probably represents each-way value in the Folkstone maiden. She has a good profile for an early 2yo and the stable have already had a 2yo winner this year, both his juveniles to appear knew their job well and this filly should be no different. I don't bet first time out, though, so it's passed over.
Mick Channon runs Specialising in the older horses maiden. She done nothing last year but check out Mick Channon's website (google it), it contains videos of his horses working, apparently for the owners to keep tabs on them. She worked with a much higher rated horse recently, you can see the video in the archives, and she showed up very well indeed. The work rider on the other horse looked surprised as she came upsides. My betting is based on the form book and what I see on the track only, so I can't recommend a bet, but I'd be tempted to chuck a fiver at it if she's a big price on Betfair.
Expect a bet tomorrow, before 12.30pm.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Saturday April 10th
Both our selections yesterday weakened and it was our first blatantly poor day in a while.
Just a note that there will be no bets tomorrow, as usual for a Sunday.
And on to one of the biggest days in the racing calander...
3.10 Aintree Khyber Kim 3pts win @ 7/2 WON (Generally, get guaranteed), Muirhead 1pt win @ 14/1 (generally, get guaranteed) 2ND - Aintree Hurdle 1-2!
A race for me in which the markets absolutely dictate that we go against the grain. Zaynar today is what I would describe as a "world and its granny" type bet. The whole world, its mother, and granny knows that Zaynar has always wanted a stiffer test than the two miles of the Champion Hurdle, everyone knows Khyber Kim goes best fresh and are expecting him to bomb out today a la Imperial Commander, and it's clear his stamina has to be taken on trust. I'm looking at it a different way. I think this is a class horse, he beat Zaynar by six lengths at Cheltenham, and he had no problem following up his November win in the Greatwood with a career best in the Boylesports 27 days later. He is still a fresh horse, is a different beast this year, and the 7/2 price about him confirming Cheltenham form with Zaynar is quite amazing. Rarely have I seen two prices so heavily influenced by media opinion.
If there is to be a surprise, Muirhead may well provide it. As I've said before, Noel Meade doesn't send horses across the water willy nilly, and on Muirhead's best form he has a good shout here. He has been running on heavy ground for a long time now, but this is a real change of tack to present him with two and a half miles and goodish ground. He comes here a fresh horse and he might well cause an upset.
4.15 Aintree - The Grand National - Niche Market 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Stan James - 5 places paid), Cloudy Lane 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Bet 365, 5 places paid)
Trends analyst Henry Croskery helps out with our big race analysis from time to time, and he sent an excellent write up a couple of days ago, as follows:
MDB - meets all the trends bar weight/rating. Has won at the course over 25f last year(not GN fences). Wouldn't fancy him off a stone less.
Mon Mome - only 7lbs higher than last year and ran a real eye catcher in the GC, again meets all the trends bar weight. Place chances.
Vic Venturi - Beecher chase winner, weight would be the only concern, but the hcapper thinks he is best in(along with Black Apalachi). Has won 3 times this season - last 10 winners had won no more than once.
Black Apalachi - Beecher chase winner of 2 seasons ago. Going very well when unseated last year, only 1lbs higher this year. Has only had 2 runs this season.
Joe Lively - meets a lot of the trends, again bar weight, only really fails on the Top 5 Hennessy/ Top 3 IGN or SGN or WGN... etc.
Don't Push It - Meets all the trends, bar weight. Will be well supported if AP plums for him, has a great ew chance.
Comply Or Die - winner 2 years ago, 2nd last year, 7lbs better off with MM, but has only ran twice this season. Place chances again.
Tricky Trickster - Is a 7yo, with 11-4, has only had 3 runs this season and 6 chase runs ever! Combine that with blowing his chances by winning the Aon. Stays well, but not for me.
Niche Market - IGN winner last year, 3rd in the Hennessy, Denman fluffing his lines in the Aon didn't help his weight, but meets all the trends, and must have a great chance.
Made in Tiapan - where to start? Weight, class, trip all against him, looks madness to run him.
Dream Alliance - WGN winner, 2nd in the 2007 Hennessy, only has the 3 runs this term, but meets every other trend and must have a great ew shout.
Cloudy Lane - No top 3 finish last 3 runs, looks out of sorts and easily passed over.
Nozic - Fails on a few trends - no top3/last3; only 2 runs this season; last run over 50days ago & doesn't meet the Top 5 Hennessy etc trend.
My Will - 3rd in the race last year off 2lbs higher, form is solid if not great(no Top3/last3), may have come in under the radar this term, is 5 times his sp from last year.
Pablo Du Charmil - fails on at least 6 trends, no.
Ballyholland - Hasn't won a 3mile+ chase, no top3 in a C1 3mile chase, the trip is must be a serious concern. Fails on at least 3 trends.
Backstage - only 9 chase starts(10+ the trend), no top 3 C1 3mile, fails on the TS 128+, and also the Top 5 hennessy etc.
Beat The Boys - Meets quite a few trends, all bar the Top 5 Hennessy... trend, but has too many P's beside his name.
Priests Leap - Wants it soft, is out of form(no top3/last£), Fails on 4 trends. Too moody.
Snowy Morning - Meets all the trends, handles the course and fences, 9lbs lower than last year, and only 2 higher than when 3rd
two years ago. Must have a great ew chance of this mark.
Can't Buy Time - only the 3 runs this term, never been in the top 3 C1 over 3miles+, and fails the Top 5 Hennessy etc trend. Fell in the race last year, trip is a concern.
Big Fella Thanks - big effort last year to finish 6th as a 7yo novice. Fails on two trends - only had 3 runs this year and no top 5 Hennessy etc. Could be very well treated of 146 though! Respected.
State of Play - 4th last year of 5lbs higher, only had the one run in which he pulled up which is a worry, did only run twice last year(but ran well both times). Fails on a few trends, and maybe one to back in running.
Character Building - only two runs this term, both don't look anything great on the face of it, but both were w/o the tongue tie. 3rd in the Hennessy in 2007, would be foolish to write him off.
Ellerisle George - meets all the trends bar TS and Top 5 Hennessy... Has won twice this season, and form at the course isn't great.
Eric's Charm - in great form, stays all day, has only ran twice this season, winning two of those runs, which are actually trend negatives. He is a 12yo too, which although trend positive, 9-11yos are preferred. Place chance at best.
King John's Castle - 2nd in 2008, injury has kept him away from the track mostly. Fails quite a few trends, form being the main worry, as he was actually in good form two years ago. Reunited with Paul Carberry and will have his fans at 40/1.
Conna Castle - can't see how he will stay this trip?! Fails about 5 trends.
Ballyfitz - Fails on 3 trends - Top3/last3, not won a 20K+ chase, and top 5 Hennessy... Not a great jumper, despite never having fallen(did unseat once) must be a concern.
Ollie Magern - only fails on top3/last3, but at the age of 12 that must be a concern. Hard to fancy.
Arbour Supreme - Still only an 8yo, has only had the 3runs this term, and although he doesn't technically meet the top 5 Hennessy trend, he has won over 29&30f. There are a few questions marks as to whether or not he meets all the trends(won C2+ & top3 C1 over 3miles+). Have been waiting over two years for him to run in this, but I have a few nagging doubts.
Maljimar - avoided Cheltenham for this, so fails the 50day trend. Only had the 3 runs this season, but again been kept for this alone.
Never actually won over 3miles+, but has placed. Stays, but it would be Crisp mark two if he was leading going to the elbow.
The Package - stays well, but is only a 7yo, and has only had 8 chase starts.A year too early for me.
Piraya - another 7yo, fails on a few trends, including having not won a 3mile+ chase. No.
Irish Raptor - first choice of the Gold Cup winning team and sure to be popular, but fails on too many trends for me.
PD Creek - another 7yo, only fails on age and Top 5 Hennessy etc. Would be better off in the Topham and waiting a year.
Hello Bud - SGN winner of last year, fails on no top3/last3 runs - which at the age of 12 must be a concern. Looks like a year too late.
Flintoff - was 3rd in the 2008 SGN, but fails on a lot of trends.
Cerium - 5th last year at 100/1. fails a lot of trends, as he did last year, trainer is keen to see him run. Could run into the minor money again if he gets in.
Royal Rosa - trainer is keen for him to run, but looks too exposed and fails too many trends.
--------------------------------------
Thanks to Henry for that analysis.
Niche Market is last year's Irish Grand National winner and has had this contest as his target pretty much ever since. He fits most of the trends and looks a very thorough stayer. A lack of previous Aintree experience is the biggest negative for me, but I'm willing to take the chance that he enjoys the big fences.
Cloudy Lane was favourite for this two years ago but didn't really run his race. He was unlucky last year, but he is still only ten and he ran a very decent race last time out behind Wogan. 40/1 looks a big each-way price and don't forget the McCains have won this race four times. I'm disagreeing with the above trends here, and having a small each-way bet.
Just a note that there will be no bets tomorrow, as usual for a Sunday.
And on to one of the biggest days in the racing calander...
3.10 Aintree Khyber Kim 3pts win @ 7/2 WON (Generally, get guaranteed), Muirhead 1pt win @ 14/1 (generally, get guaranteed) 2ND - Aintree Hurdle 1-2!
A race for me in which the markets absolutely dictate that we go against the grain. Zaynar today is what I would describe as a "world and its granny" type bet. The whole world, its mother, and granny knows that Zaynar has always wanted a stiffer test than the two miles of the Champion Hurdle, everyone knows Khyber Kim goes best fresh and are expecting him to bomb out today a la Imperial Commander, and it's clear his stamina has to be taken on trust. I'm looking at it a different way. I think this is a class horse, he beat Zaynar by six lengths at Cheltenham, and he had no problem following up his November win in the Greatwood with a career best in the Boylesports 27 days later. He is still a fresh horse, is a different beast this year, and the 7/2 price about him confirming Cheltenham form with Zaynar is quite amazing. Rarely have I seen two prices so heavily influenced by media opinion.
If there is to be a surprise, Muirhead may well provide it. As I've said before, Noel Meade doesn't send horses across the water willy nilly, and on Muirhead's best form he has a good shout here. He has been running on heavy ground for a long time now, but this is a real change of tack to present him with two and a half miles and goodish ground. He comes here a fresh horse and he might well cause an upset.
4.15 Aintree - The Grand National - Niche Market 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Stan James - 5 places paid), Cloudy Lane 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Bet 365, 5 places paid)
Trends analyst Henry Croskery helps out with our big race analysis from time to time, and he sent an excellent write up a couple of days ago, as follows:
MDB - meets all the trends bar weight/rating. Has won at the course over 25f last year(not GN fences). Wouldn't fancy him off a stone less.
Mon Mome - only 7lbs higher than last year and ran a real eye catcher in the GC, again meets all the trends bar weight. Place chances.
Vic Venturi - Beecher chase winner, weight would be the only concern, but the hcapper thinks he is best in(along with Black Apalachi). Has won 3 times this season - last 10 winners had won no more than once.
Black Apalachi - Beecher chase winner of 2 seasons ago. Going very well when unseated last year, only 1lbs higher this year. Has only had 2 runs this season.
Joe Lively - meets a lot of the trends, again bar weight, only really fails on the Top 5 Hennessy/ Top 3 IGN or SGN or WGN... etc.
Don't Push It - Meets all the trends, bar weight. Will be well supported if AP plums for him, has a great ew chance.
Comply Or Die - winner 2 years ago, 2nd last year, 7lbs better off with MM, but has only ran twice this season. Place chances again.
Tricky Trickster - Is a 7yo, with 11-4, has only had 3 runs this season and 6 chase runs ever! Combine that with blowing his chances by winning the Aon. Stays well, but not for me.
Niche Market - IGN winner last year, 3rd in the Hennessy, Denman fluffing his lines in the Aon didn't help his weight, but meets all the trends, and must have a great chance.
Made in Tiapan - where to start? Weight, class, trip all against him, looks madness to run him.
Dream Alliance - WGN winner, 2nd in the 2007 Hennessy, only has the 3 runs this term, but meets every other trend and must have a great ew shout.
Cloudy Lane - No top 3 finish last 3 runs, looks out of sorts and easily passed over.
Nozic - Fails on a few trends - no top3/last3; only 2 runs this season; last run over 50days ago & doesn't meet the Top 5 Hennessy etc trend.
My Will - 3rd in the race last year off 2lbs higher, form is solid if not great(no Top3/last3), may have come in under the radar this term, is 5 times his sp from last year.
Pablo Du Charmil - fails on at least 6 trends, no.
Ballyholland - Hasn't won a 3mile+ chase, no top3 in a C1 3mile chase, the trip is must be a serious concern. Fails on at least 3 trends.
Backstage - only 9 chase starts(10+ the trend), no top 3 C1 3mile, fails on the TS 128+, and also the Top 5 hennessy etc.
Beat The Boys - Meets quite a few trends, all bar the Top 5 Hennessy... trend, but has too many P's beside his name.
Priests Leap - Wants it soft, is out of form(no top3/last£), Fails on 4 trends. Too moody.
Snowy Morning - Meets all the trends, handles the course and fences, 9lbs lower than last year, and only 2 higher than when 3rd
two years ago. Must have a great ew chance of this mark.
Can't Buy Time - only the 3 runs this term, never been in the top 3 C1 over 3miles+, and fails the Top 5 Hennessy etc trend. Fell in the race last year, trip is a concern.
Big Fella Thanks - big effort last year to finish 6th as a 7yo novice. Fails on two trends - only had 3 runs this year and no top 5 Hennessy etc. Could be very well treated of 146 though! Respected.
State of Play - 4th last year of 5lbs higher, only had the one run in which he pulled up which is a worry, did only run twice last year(but ran well both times). Fails on a few trends, and maybe one to back in running.
Character Building - only two runs this term, both don't look anything great on the face of it, but both were w/o the tongue tie. 3rd in the Hennessy in 2007, would be foolish to write him off.
Ellerisle George - meets all the trends bar TS and Top 5 Hennessy... Has won twice this season, and form at the course isn't great.
Eric's Charm - in great form, stays all day, has only ran twice this season, winning two of those runs, which are actually trend negatives. He is a 12yo too, which although trend positive, 9-11yos are preferred. Place chance at best.
King John's Castle - 2nd in 2008, injury has kept him away from the track mostly. Fails quite a few trends, form being the main worry, as he was actually in good form two years ago. Reunited with Paul Carberry and will have his fans at 40/1.
Conna Castle - can't see how he will stay this trip?! Fails about 5 trends.
Ballyfitz - Fails on 3 trends - Top3/last3, not won a 20K+ chase, and top 5 Hennessy... Not a great jumper, despite never having fallen(did unseat once) must be a concern.
Ollie Magern - only fails on top3/last3, but at the age of 12 that must be a concern. Hard to fancy.
Arbour Supreme - Still only an 8yo, has only had the 3runs this term, and although he doesn't technically meet the top 5 Hennessy trend, he has won over 29&30f. There are a few questions marks as to whether or not he meets all the trends(won C2+ & top3 C1 over 3miles+). Have been waiting over two years for him to run in this, but I have a few nagging doubts.
Maljimar - avoided Cheltenham for this, so fails the 50day trend. Only had the 3 runs this season, but again been kept for this alone.
Never actually won over 3miles+, but has placed. Stays, but it would be Crisp mark two if he was leading going to the elbow.
The Package - stays well, but is only a 7yo, and has only had 8 chase starts.A year too early for me.
Piraya - another 7yo, fails on a few trends, including having not won a 3mile+ chase. No.
Irish Raptor - first choice of the Gold Cup winning team and sure to be popular, but fails on too many trends for me.
PD Creek - another 7yo, only fails on age and Top 5 Hennessy etc. Would be better off in the Topham and waiting a year.
Hello Bud - SGN winner of last year, fails on no top3/last3 runs - which at the age of 12 must be a concern. Looks like a year too late.
Flintoff - was 3rd in the 2008 SGN, but fails on a lot of trends.
Cerium - 5th last year at 100/1. fails a lot of trends, as he did last year, trainer is keen to see him run. Could run into the minor money again if he gets in.
Royal Rosa - trainer is keen for him to run, but looks too exposed and fails too many trends.
--------------------------------------
Thanks to Henry for that analysis.
Niche Market is last year's Irish Grand National winner and has had this contest as his target pretty much ever since. He fits most of the trends and looks a very thorough stayer. A lack of previous Aintree experience is the biggest negative for me, but I'm willing to take the chance that he enjoys the big fences.
Cloudy Lane was favourite for this two years ago but didn't really run his race. He was unlucky last year, but he is still only ten and he ran a very decent race last time out behind Wogan. 40/1 looks a big each-way price and don't forget the McCains have won this race four times. I'm disagreeing with the above trends here, and having a small each-way bet.
Friday April 9th
A great days racing yesterday, but no profits for us. Taking a closer look at our selections, though, we correctly identified the value and over time that means profits. We took 6/1 on Sky Diamond, which was sent off 7/2, and it doesn't take long until you're in the black if you can do that. He was trapped wide and ultimately I think we were denied a place at least by the draw - I did feel Mulrennan could have got him tucked in a bit better. Nacarat's jumping was both brilliant and awful, he got tired after clouting a couple and faded into third, no excuses. But we did correctly identify that Imperial Commander was to be opposed - he was never at the races.
Again we have two bets today.
3.10 Aintree - The Melling Chase - Deep Purple, 2pts each-way @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, 1/4 odds paid and price guaranteed)
Deep Purple has given signs this season that he is ready to assume top class status, and it is with this in mind that he gets the nod for the Melling Chase today. Evan William's charge was sent off at 17/2 for the King George only a few months ago, off the back off a string of career best performances early in the season. The highlight of those was a six length defeat of Tartak giving him 10lbs, posting an RPR of 171 in the process and indicating that on his day, this is a horse out of he top drawer.
He burst a blood vessel in the King George, and was given a few months off before running an excellent fourth in the Ryanair at Cheltenham, a track which does not suit him. A flat galloping track and today's trip are exactly what he wants in my view, and if he strips fitter today he can improve past his Cheltenham conquerors. Paul Maloney wasn't too hard on him when his chance had gone three weeks back, and the benefit of that might just be reaped today. His excellent record when completing over fences (4112121114) and today's ideal conditions means I'm happy to play each-way.
8.45 Wolverhampton Damietta 5pts win @ 2/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Bet of the day this one. Frankie Dettori rides this filly for the third time, she is making her debut for Mark Johnston after transferring from Godolphin. She was considered listed class by connections after she won at Kempton last year, but lost her way on good to firm ground afterwards. Her American breeding and the Kempton win strongly suggests artificial surfaces suit her best, and she is in here off a mark of 77 today. She races prominently, and with chief danger Power Series looking like a hold up horse, I think Frankie could run this to suit him and make full use of the 8lb he receives from the current favourite around the home turn. Power Series was a real eyecatcher last time out, but he beat next to nothing and he will have to be very good to give 8lb to Damietta.
Again we have two bets today.
3.10 Aintree - The Melling Chase - Deep Purple, 2pts each-way @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, 1/4 odds paid and price guaranteed)
Deep Purple has given signs this season that he is ready to assume top class status, and it is with this in mind that he gets the nod for the Melling Chase today. Evan William's charge was sent off at 17/2 for the King George only a few months ago, off the back off a string of career best performances early in the season. The highlight of those was a six length defeat of Tartak giving him 10lbs, posting an RPR of 171 in the process and indicating that on his day, this is a horse out of he top drawer.
He burst a blood vessel in the King George, and was given a few months off before running an excellent fourth in the Ryanair at Cheltenham, a track which does not suit him. A flat galloping track and today's trip are exactly what he wants in my view, and if he strips fitter today he can improve past his Cheltenham conquerors. Paul Maloney wasn't too hard on him when his chance had gone three weeks back, and the benefit of that might just be reaped today. His excellent record when completing over fences (4112121114) and today's ideal conditions means I'm happy to play each-way.
8.45 Wolverhampton Damietta 5pts win @ 2/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Bet of the day this one. Frankie Dettori rides this filly for the third time, she is making her debut for Mark Johnston after transferring from Godolphin. She was considered listed class by connections after she won at Kempton last year, but lost her way on good to firm ground afterwards. Her American breeding and the Kempton win strongly suggests artificial surfaces suit her best, and she is in here off a mark of 77 today. She races prominently, and with chief danger Power Series looking like a hold up horse, I think Frankie could run this to suit him and make full use of the 8lb he receives from the current favourite around the home turn. Power Series was a real eyecatcher last time out, but he beat next to nothing and he will have to be very good to give 8lb to Damietta.
Thursday April 8th
No joy last night with Attainable, but we pointed you in the direction of both maiden winners at Lingers. The Noseda horse won the opener (11/10f), and Chapple-Hyam's representative won the second (9/1). In retrospect the Chapple Hyam / Ryan Moore combination was indeed significant.
Two bets today, one in the big race of the day, and another in a 2yo maiden at Leicester.
2.15 Leicester Sky Diamond 3pts each-way @ 6/1 (Paddy Power and others, get guaranteed)
James Given does not, as a rule, send out early 2yo's unless they are speedy and sometimes half decent. His record in the last five seasons is 1-1 (100%) in March, and 1-5 (20%) in April. The sample size is small and obviously he is choosy about the juveniles he sends out in spring. Sky Diamond was a rare Brocklesby entry for the stable and he acquitted himself really well in eighth place after showing plenty of early speed from the stalls. Added to that, he got loose in the paddock before the race and was behaving fairly badly right through the preliminaries. If he can avoid a repeat performance, he should come on a bundle for that first run and can go close to winning this. He was bought for E20,000 at Goffs last year which is a high price for a horse of modest enough breeding (first season sire) and that, along with the early big race entry, suggests to me that there is a degree of ability there. If he settles down today, he can take the measure of the two market principals whose form looks downright average. One or two lurkers including a Bryn Palling newcomer (he tends to have his tuned up, and he targets Leicester) so I'm happy to play each-way.
3.10 Aintree - The Totesport Bowl - Nacarat 3pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Imperial Commander has a poor enough record turned out quickly, and is unproven at Aintree. Twiston-Davies reported that he was a little stiff for his first gallop since the Gold Cup (on 30th March) and I'm happy to take him on here with the improving Nacarat. Tom George's charge posted a very decent performance behind Voy Por Ustedes here last season in the Melling Chase, and the stable's comments afterwards suggests they thought he was outspeeded. He came into that race having posted an RPR of 170 in winning the Racing Post Chase, and he comes into this race having posted the same rating in coming second off 11lb higher this year. The drying ground will be in his favour and a flat three miles in a small field is exactly what he wants these days in my view. The champion jockey knows him well and takes the ride again, and he looks a cracking win only proposition at 9/2.
Two bets today, one in the big race of the day, and another in a 2yo maiden at Leicester.
2.15 Leicester Sky Diamond 3pts each-way @ 6/1 (Paddy Power and others, get guaranteed)
James Given does not, as a rule, send out early 2yo's unless they are speedy and sometimes half decent. His record in the last five seasons is 1-1 (100%) in March, and 1-5 (20%) in April. The sample size is small and obviously he is choosy about the juveniles he sends out in spring. Sky Diamond was a rare Brocklesby entry for the stable and he acquitted himself really well in eighth place after showing plenty of early speed from the stalls. Added to that, he got loose in the paddock before the race and was behaving fairly badly right through the preliminaries. If he can avoid a repeat performance, he should come on a bundle for that first run and can go close to winning this. He was bought for E20,000 at Goffs last year which is a high price for a horse of modest enough breeding (first season sire) and that, along with the early big race entry, suggests to me that there is a degree of ability there. If he settles down today, he can take the measure of the two market principals whose form looks downright average. One or two lurkers including a Bryn Palling newcomer (he tends to have his tuned up, and he targets Leicester) so I'm happy to play each-way.
3.10 Aintree - The Totesport Bowl - Nacarat 3pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Imperial Commander has a poor enough record turned out quickly, and is unproven at Aintree. Twiston-Davies reported that he was a little stiff for his first gallop since the Gold Cup (on 30th March) and I'm happy to take him on here with the improving Nacarat. Tom George's charge posted a very decent performance behind Voy Por Ustedes here last season in the Melling Chase, and the stable's comments afterwards suggests they thought he was outspeeded. He came into that race having posted an RPR of 170 in winning the Racing Post Chase, and he comes into this race having posted the same rating in coming second off 11lb higher this year. The drying ground will be in his favour and a flat three miles in a small field is exactly what he wants these days in my view. The champion jockey knows him well and takes the ride again, and he looks a cracking win only proposition at 9/2.
Wednesday April 7th
Another great day yesterday with Staff Sergeant winning having drifted like a barge just as we told you it was likely to! 7/1 was a humongous S.P. for a horse with his profile and I really hope that you ALL got a guaranteed price - guaranteed prices are one of the true edges we punters have over bookmakers. Last night we got paid double what we would have had we taken a price which was not guaranteed. We've been banging in the winners lately and have started the flat season in fine form.
Quite a lot to get our teeth into today. The two Lingfield maidens look interesting and Chapple Hyam runs two dark horses. I don't like Stoute's favourite in the first, the Johnston newcomer looks interesting and I'd rather be on Noseda's than the fav. I've decided to leave alone, but they should be informative races. I don't want to get involved with Catterick yet, I love betting there but we need to be clued in on where the stables are fitness wise before playing, looks a bit of an early season minefield. Nottingham I've barely looked at, one of my least favourite tracks from a betting point of view and one look at that opening handicap gave me the collywobbles (whatever they are).
I had considered playing Stoute's King's Song at Kempton, but the very early 11/4 has disappeared and he looks about right at 5/2.
We'll play one at Kempton. I'm fearing it could be a Hugh Taylor selection, so get on early and get a guaranteed price.
7.30 Kempton Attainable, 2pts each-way @ best 10am price guaranteed
Represents a stable who have been in fine form on the flat and over jumps just lately, including the winner of the Queen's Prize in Gala Evening, over this course and distance. The selection has a stamina packed pedigree and has showed the odd hint in the past that she has a decent level of ability. The problem, for me, was that she was with a stable who were pretty much bang out of form all last year. On a couple of occasions, she travelled quite well through her race but failed to see her effort through, weakening tamely. I don't think she was a non-stayer, I paid close attention to the Perrett yard last season and they were awful. Jim Old forked out 14,000gns for this filly last October and I just feel that if he has worked the oracle, she could be a fair bit better than a 66 rated handicapper. Factored into the price is the fact that she comes back off a break today, but if there's one trainer I like to back off an absence it is Jim Old. He can get them fit at home and has a good record sending them to the races fresh. Seb Sanders is a positive booking and she looks a good value each-way bet.
Quite a lot to get our teeth into today. The two Lingfield maidens look interesting and Chapple Hyam runs two dark horses. I don't like Stoute's favourite in the first, the Johnston newcomer looks interesting and I'd rather be on Noseda's than the fav. I've decided to leave alone, but they should be informative races. I don't want to get involved with Catterick yet, I love betting there but we need to be clued in on where the stables are fitness wise before playing, looks a bit of an early season minefield. Nottingham I've barely looked at, one of my least favourite tracks from a betting point of view and one look at that opening handicap gave me the collywobbles (whatever they are).
I had considered playing Stoute's King's Song at Kempton, but the very early 11/4 has disappeared and he looks about right at 5/2.
We'll play one at Kempton. I'm fearing it could be a Hugh Taylor selection, so get on early and get a guaranteed price.
7.30 Kempton Attainable, 2pts each-way @ best 10am price guaranteed
Represents a stable who have been in fine form on the flat and over jumps just lately, including the winner of the Queen's Prize in Gala Evening, over this course and distance. The selection has a stamina packed pedigree and has showed the odd hint in the past that she has a decent level of ability. The problem, for me, was that she was with a stable who were pretty much bang out of form all last year. On a couple of occasions, she travelled quite well through her race but failed to see her effort through, weakening tamely. I don't think she was a non-stayer, I paid close attention to the Perrett yard last season and they were awful. Jim Old forked out 14,000gns for this filly last October and I just feel that if he has worked the oracle, she could be a fair bit better than a 66 rated handicapper. Factored into the price is the fact that she comes back off a break today, but if there's one trainer I like to back off an absence it is Jim Old. He can get them fit at home and has a good record sending them to the races fresh. Seb Sanders is a positive booking and she looks a good value each-way bet.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Tuesday April 6th
Just a small bet on a day when it is far more advisable to take a watching brief than get heavily involved.
2.40 Southwell Staff Sergeant, 2pts win @ 7/2 (Bet 365 - Take earlies, price is guaranteed) - WON @ 7/1, drifting as suggested
A run of the mill Southwell maiden but this Mark Johnston representative is very well bred for artificial surfaces being out of Dubawi and out of the family of Secret Charm on the Dam's side. I liked his debut last backend, he looks a physically robust sort but he was far too green to do himself any justice. He was put away for the winter and reappears in a very winnable race today. The stable have farmed all weather maidens this season and I think 7/2 is too big here. Don't be worried if he drifts either, many of Mark Johnston's mob drift and win anyway. The price is guaranteed with Bet 365. Small stakes as fitness must be taken on trust, and there are one or two potential lurkers.
2.40 Southwell Staff Sergeant, 2pts win @ 7/2 (Bet 365 - Take earlies, price is guaranteed) - WON @ 7/1, drifting as suggested
A run of the mill Southwell maiden but this Mark Johnston representative is very well bred for artificial surfaces being out of Dubawi and out of the family of Secret Charm on the Dam's side. I liked his debut last backend, he looks a physically robust sort but he was far too green to do himself any justice. He was put away for the winter and reappears in a very winnable race today. The stable have farmed all weather maidens this season and I think 7/2 is too big here. Don't be worried if he drifts either, many of Mark Johnston's mob drift and win anyway. The price is guaranteed with Bet 365. Small stakes as fitness must be taken on trust, and there are one or two potential lurkers.
Thursday April 1st
Well, I have to say I'm gutted Tappanappa was a non-runner last night! He was supported very heavily mid afternoon, much in the style that the Balding stable usually lands a touch, and we had a fantastic bet on our hands at 7/1. Manxman won, the form is very poor and as I suggested the Gosden horse was a slowboat. The race was Tappanappa's for the taking, and I wouldn't have been surprised had he won ten lengths against that bunch. Still, onwards and upwards.
Heavy ground at Folkstone today turned my attention to on horse in particular.
3.10 Folkstone Rio Mist, 3pts win @ 10/3 (Bet 365, guaranteed - more offers of 10/3 should be available in due course)
This is the first midweek meeting of the flat turf season and we're not savvy quite yet as to any possible change in draw biases, and the fitness levels of many of the participants. There could also be a few non-runners on the card. What we do know is that Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes are in fine form, and look set for another fantastic season. Hannon is 18% with his three year olds at Folkstone and, being out of Captain Rio, his Rio Mist should cope better than most of these on the testing ground this afternoon. she also showed early speed on both her starts last season which can help at this track.
Rio Mist is a leggy filly and I thought she was bound to make a better three year old. It interests me that she was put away for the rest of last year. She may have had problems, but they could have sent her out for a handicap mark at some stage if she was moderate, and tried to bag a 3yo handicap this season off a lowly rating. Instead she lines up in this maiden and it has to be said it won't take much winning. If she is an OR mid 70's type, she should have no trouble disposing of this lot provided she handles the ground. I'm quite sure Hannon will have her fit and ready to take advantage of the opportunity and she looked a 5/2 shot to me when I priced the race up.
Heavy ground at Folkstone today turned my attention to on horse in particular.
3.10 Folkstone Rio Mist, 3pts win @ 10/3 (Bet 365, guaranteed - more offers of 10/3 should be available in due course)
This is the first midweek meeting of the flat turf season and we're not savvy quite yet as to any possible change in draw biases, and the fitness levels of many of the participants. There could also be a few non-runners on the card. What we do know is that Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes are in fine form, and look set for another fantastic season. Hannon is 18% with his three year olds at Folkstone and, being out of Captain Rio, his Rio Mist should cope better than most of these on the testing ground this afternoon. she also showed early speed on both her starts last season which can help at this track.
Rio Mist is a leggy filly and I thought she was bound to make a better three year old. It interests me that she was put away for the rest of last year. She may have had problems, but they could have sent her out for a handicap mark at some stage if she was moderate, and tried to bag a 3yo handicap this season off a lowly rating. Instead she lines up in this maiden and it has to be said it won't take much winning. If she is an OR mid 70's type, she should have no trouble disposing of this lot provided she handles the ground. I'm quite sure Hannon will have her fit and ready to take advantage of the opportunity and she looked a 5/2 shot to me when I priced the race up.
Wednesday March 31st
A fantastic day yesterday with My Matilda (Form PPP) doing the business at 14/1 and yielding just over 16.5pts profit for our small outlay.
One bet today.
6.30 Kempton Tappanappa 2pts each-way @ 7/1 (Paddy Power - may become available elsewhere, make sure to get guaranteed) - backed into 7/2, late non runner!
Andrew Balding boasts a 16% strike rate at Kempton, a 17% strike rate with 3yo's over 11 furlongs and 12 furlongs, and a 14% strike rate in 3yo maidens. He sends Tappanappa to contest the 11f 3yo maiden tonight at Kempton, and I think he has an excellent chance in a race which is not as strong as it first looks.
Favourite Zigato represents John Gosden, but many of Johns come on for their debut run and I'm not sure why he is starting off such a well bred horse in an average middle distance maiden like this. Could it be that the horse isn't very quick? He also seems a bit cheap at 22,000gns for a horse so well bred. He is a half brother to Sariska, but she hadn't won the oaks when he was purchased; still, a few question marks and short at 2/1.
Manxman looks ordinary, he has been sent to the front in some poor maidens this winter and looks exposed. Dettori is keeping his price down in my view. Heading To First was well beaten by a fair horse last time and was only a head in front of the ordinary Moonbalej. He gave weight away but he doesn't look a world beater.
Looking into Tappanappa's pedigree does give mixed messages as the Racing Post points out but his half brother Baltimore Jack stays 10f no problem and the dam is related to the family of Islington. Sire High Chapparal injects plenty of stamina as a Derby winner and the question of him staying doesn't worry me. He travelled really well on unsuitable ground on his debut, up to the point of the three furlong pole, when he faded and was given an easy time after one crack of the whip. The slight worry is that he looked around himself a bit that day, but it was his debut and it was not a case of him having a markedly high head carriage. That maiden was a very good contest and given his trainers decent record in these events, he looks an excellent each-way bet. The booking of Jimmy Fortune, with William Buick in the next stall riding for John Gosden, looks intruiging and I'm sure Jimmy would love to get one over on young William here - it's his only ride of the day and you have to feel it is significant.
Again, this could be tipped elsewhere so take the early price!
One bet today.
6.30 Kempton Tappanappa 2pts each-way @ 7/1 (Paddy Power - may become available elsewhere, make sure to get guaranteed) - backed into 7/2, late non runner!
Andrew Balding boasts a 16% strike rate at Kempton, a 17% strike rate with 3yo's over 11 furlongs and 12 furlongs, and a 14% strike rate in 3yo maidens. He sends Tappanappa to contest the 11f 3yo maiden tonight at Kempton, and I think he has an excellent chance in a race which is not as strong as it first looks.
Favourite Zigato represents John Gosden, but many of Johns come on for their debut run and I'm not sure why he is starting off such a well bred horse in an average middle distance maiden like this. Could it be that the horse isn't very quick? He also seems a bit cheap at 22,000gns for a horse so well bred. He is a half brother to Sariska, but she hadn't won the oaks when he was purchased; still, a few question marks and short at 2/1.
Manxman looks ordinary, he has been sent to the front in some poor maidens this winter and looks exposed. Dettori is keeping his price down in my view. Heading To First was well beaten by a fair horse last time and was only a head in front of the ordinary Moonbalej. He gave weight away but he doesn't look a world beater.
Looking into Tappanappa's pedigree does give mixed messages as the Racing Post points out but his half brother Baltimore Jack stays 10f no problem and the dam is related to the family of Islington. Sire High Chapparal injects plenty of stamina as a Derby winner and the question of him staying doesn't worry me. He travelled really well on unsuitable ground on his debut, up to the point of the three furlong pole, when he faded and was given an easy time after one crack of the whip. The slight worry is that he looked around himself a bit that day, but it was his debut and it was not a case of him having a markedly high head carriage. That maiden was a very good contest and given his trainers decent record in these events, he looks an excellent each-way bet. The booking of Jimmy Fortune, with William Buick in the next stall riding for John Gosden, looks intruiging and I'm sure Jimmy would love to get one over on young William here - it's his only ride of the day and you have to feel it is significant.
Again, this could be tipped elsewhere so take the early price!
Tuesday March 30th
One of those days yesterday, where we supported a horse who was a notable and marked drifter just before the off. Gojeri was a lot shorter than an 8/1 chance on form, but to be honest I felt a shocker was on the cards when I seen the drift and that's what we got. He was never really put in the race, looked as though he'd come on for the run, and all in all I'd say connections will be happy to step him up to 8f or 10f in a handicap soon off the mark of around 70 he'll be awarded.
No flat action today but we do have on small interest in the jumps racing.
5.00 Fontwell My Matilda, 1pt each-way @ 14/1 (Totesport - should be available elsewhere after 10am - get guaranteed) - WON
The odds compilers don't seem to have realised as of yet how good Lawney Hill is with other people's cast offs, and she sends the ex-Andrew Turnell My Matilda to her local track Fontwell today. She has a 3/11 27% strike rate at Fontwell this season and things seem to be coming together for the small stable she runs with her husband. The selection is her only representative at the meeting and is the only mount of jockey Christian Williams, who rode a double for Lawney a few weeks back and maintains a respectable 12% strike rate for the stable over the last five seasons.
Being out of Silver Patriarch, My Matilda is bred for staying distances and testing ground. She has failed to make the grade as a chaser thus far, and the biggest hints that she possesses some latent ability have come when presented with a proper stamina test on soft ground over hurdles. A one-paced third at Leicester in '07 over 17f on soft and a plodding 4th in a Novice Hurdle at stamina sapping Towcester are the best evidence of this. Clearly, she has little worthwhile form to speak of but there are some very slow, bad horses in this contest and she looks well treated off a mark of 68. My Matilda is bred to be a bit better than these, and if Lawney has found the key to her, she looks the most likely to shake up the odds on favourite and looks a decent value each-way bet.
This looks the sort of horse that could be tipped elsewhere, so the advice is to take the guaranteed 14/1 early doors.
No flat action today but we do have on small interest in the jumps racing.
5.00 Fontwell My Matilda, 1pt each-way @ 14/1 (Totesport - should be available elsewhere after 10am - get guaranteed) - WON
The odds compilers don't seem to have realised as of yet how good Lawney Hill is with other people's cast offs, and she sends the ex-Andrew Turnell My Matilda to her local track Fontwell today. She has a 3/11 27% strike rate at Fontwell this season and things seem to be coming together for the small stable she runs with her husband. The selection is her only representative at the meeting and is the only mount of jockey Christian Williams, who rode a double for Lawney a few weeks back and maintains a respectable 12% strike rate for the stable over the last five seasons.
Being out of Silver Patriarch, My Matilda is bred for staying distances and testing ground. She has failed to make the grade as a chaser thus far, and the biggest hints that she possesses some latent ability have come when presented with a proper stamina test on soft ground over hurdles. A one-paced third at Leicester in '07 over 17f on soft and a plodding 4th in a Novice Hurdle at stamina sapping Towcester are the best evidence of this. Clearly, she has little worthwhile form to speak of but there are some very slow, bad horses in this contest and she looks well treated off a mark of 68. My Matilda is bred to be a bit better than these, and if Lawney has found the key to her, she looks the most likely to shake up the odds on favourite and looks a decent value each-way bet.
This looks the sort of horse that could be tipped elsewhere, so the advice is to take the guaranteed 14/1 early doors.
Monday March 29th
A fine weekend with Mr. Plod (9/2) bagging the profits on Friday and bet of the day Senate (5/1) doing the biz impressively on Saturday. Some fantastic action yesterday but we rightly did not bet.
One bet for today.
Michael Jarvis boasts an excellent 23% strike rate with his 3yo's at Wolverhampton and a cracking 28% strike rate in 3yo maidens overall, returning a profit of +48.90 to the unit stake. His representative Gojeri looks to have an excellent chance in the 7f maiden (2.50pm). The son of Choisir was unsuited by soft ground on his debut, but improved to post an RPR of 69 in a very decent maiden on his second run, on better ground at Newmarket. He has a powerful action but looked to be hitting the ground quite hard that day, he has a real pummelling action and I'm not sure the Newmarket dip suited him. The selection impressed as a straightforward ride and looked thoroughly professional, putting his head down when asked towards the finish, staying on nicely against some 80+ horses. I reckon Gojeri will be perfectly suited by 7f on Polytrack today and, although he doesn't look to be a world beater, he should be an OR 80 type in time and this does not look to be the strongest of maidens. He rates a really good each-way bet to nothing at around 9/2 - get a guaranteed price as he may well drift.
Best Recommendation:
2.50 Wolves Gojeri, 3pts each-way @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)
One bet for today.
Michael Jarvis boasts an excellent 23% strike rate with his 3yo's at Wolverhampton and a cracking 28% strike rate in 3yo maidens overall, returning a profit of +48.90 to the unit stake. His representative Gojeri looks to have an excellent chance in the 7f maiden (2.50pm). The son of Choisir was unsuited by soft ground on his debut, but improved to post an RPR of 69 in a very decent maiden on his second run, on better ground at Newmarket. He has a powerful action but looked to be hitting the ground quite hard that day, he has a real pummelling action and I'm not sure the Newmarket dip suited him. The selection impressed as a straightforward ride and looked thoroughly professional, putting his head down when asked towards the finish, staying on nicely against some 80+ horses. I reckon Gojeri will be perfectly suited by 7f on Polytrack today and, although he doesn't look to be a world beater, he should be an OR 80 type in time and this does not look to be the strongest of maidens. He rates a really good each-way bet to nothing at around 9/2 - get a guaranteed price as he may well drift.
Best Recommendation:
2.50 Wolves Gojeri, 3pts each-way @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Saturday March 27th
11pts profit yesterday.
Two races of interest today.
3.10 Doncaster - The Lincoln Handicap - Harrison George 1pt each-way @ 22/1 (William Hill, guaranteed)
With the defection of Doctor Crane at the eleventh hour, a horse I had fancied, I am happy to support my original second choice for this race, Harrison George. It has become apparent since last season that this is a horse who shows his best form fresh, and since his first time out second place as a two year old, he has run a second here at Donny, and a good 4th last season, on his seasonal reappearance. Both times he has run above his rating, and he does not look harshly treated off a mark of 95 on his very best form. I've lost count of the amount of times this horse has been found staying on at the end of races and I have a feeling that Richard Fahey just might have been training a miler as a sprinter. His career best run on his penultimate start was over seven furlongs, and if he handles a mile today he must go close. The ground is perfect for him, and the excellent Barry McHugh claims three pounds off his back which is invaluable.
4.15 Doncaster - Senate 3pts each-way @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON
Bet of the day this one. John Gosden has sent two horses to contest this race in recent years, London Bridge who finished fourth last year, and Indian Pipe Dream who won it in 2005. The selection made his debut late last year at Wolverhampton and was very green indeed, he dwelt from the stalls and was allowed to find his way around in his own time, making up some headway late on under very tender handling and all in all, having a nice, educational experience for his first visit to the racecourse. That run at least told us he is a well built, scopey son of Pivotal who will come on a bundle for the experience, and does not seem to have any silly quirks or wayward tendencies. His sire is well known for producing progeny who enjoy soft ground, and the 10 furlongs on soft ground over a galloping track looks ideal for him today. Gosden clearly sends horses to this race who are ready to acquit themselves well (both previous runners showed improved form in this contest) and he does not use it as a pipe opener or such. Barry Hills' horse has the best form on the book, but Princess Haya does not tend to own bad horses and if Senate comes on as expected for his debut, he rates a cracking each-way bet here.
Two races of interest today.
3.10 Doncaster - The Lincoln Handicap - Harrison George 1pt each-way @ 22/1 (William Hill, guaranteed)
With the defection of Doctor Crane at the eleventh hour, a horse I had fancied, I am happy to support my original second choice for this race, Harrison George. It has become apparent since last season that this is a horse who shows his best form fresh, and since his first time out second place as a two year old, he has run a second here at Donny, and a good 4th last season, on his seasonal reappearance. Both times he has run above his rating, and he does not look harshly treated off a mark of 95 on his very best form. I've lost count of the amount of times this horse has been found staying on at the end of races and I have a feeling that Richard Fahey just might have been training a miler as a sprinter. His career best run on his penultimate start was over seven furlongs, and if he handles a mile today he must go close. The ground is perfect for him, and the excellent Barry McHugh claims three pounds off his back which is invaluable.
4.15 Doncaster - Senate 3pts each-way @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON
Bet of the day this one. John Gosden has sent two horses to contest this race in recent years, London Bridge who finished fourth last year, and Indian Pipe Dream who won it in 2005. The selection made his debut late last year at Wolverhampton and was very green indeed, he dwelt from the stalls and was allowed to find his way around in his own time, making up some headway late on under very tender handling and all in all, having a nice, educational experience for his first visit to the racecourse. That run at least told us he is a well built, scopey son of Pivotal who will come on a bundle for the experience, and does not seem to have any silly quirks or wayward tendencies. His sire is well known for producing progeny who enjoy soft ground, and the 10 furlongs on soft ground over a galloping track looks ideal for him today. Gosden clearly sends horses to this race who are ready to acquit themselves well (both previous runners showed improved form in this contest) and he does not use it as a pipe opener or such. Barry Hills' horse has the best form on the book, but Princess Haya does not tend to own bad horses and if Senate comes on as expected for his debut, he rates a cracking each-way bet here.
Friday, March 26th
4.25 Lingfield Mr Plod 3pts win @ 5/1 (VC Bet, Coral - guaranteed) - WON
An interesting betting heat even with the withdrawl of Cold Turkey earlier this morning. Prince Charlamagne is the fav here and I'm happy to take him on. He has been on the go for most of the winter and to my mind is beginning to look a little exposed over this trip. 13 furlongs looks a little on the sharp side for him without a proper pace in the race and he has been caught out a couple of times this year at around a mile and a half in fields of ten or less. He is opposed with Mr. Plod, who represents the resurgent Andrew Reid, back in the training game after a serious enough car accident in 2008. Reid's string are in good form and the selection makes his reappearance after a 100 day break today. He travelled well at Kempton last time out but found nil when asked - the break since suggests something may have been amiss. His penultimate run at this course was full of promise. He travelled supremely well off what was only a fair pace and quickened really impressively in the home straight to with with loads in hand. He posted an RPR of 67 that day, and I think he has been lucky in that the handicapper has only raised him 6lbs to a mark of 56. If he can repeat the Lingfield run or even get close to it, he can land the spoils here.
Some of you may wonder why I'm not playing 2pts e/w in an 8 runner race. I only play each-way at these kind of odds when there is absolutely no doubts about the horse, and it has run well recently. In such circumstances, the right selections will tend to win or nick a place when there are 8 or 9 in a handicap, and you can save your stake. However we're taking a chance on Mr Plod's fitness - he is a win only proposition. It should be said, if it was well known that Mr. Plod was capable of running to his Lingfield form today, he would be a lot shorter than 5/1.
5.00 Lingfield Officer In Command 2pts win @ 11/2, Confidentiality 2pts win @ 11/2 (Both generally, get guaranteed)
Racing loves an unbeaten horse, and sometimes horses who have yet to taste defeat are sent off at unfeasibly short prices on the basis of a string of 1's next to their name, irrelevant of the merits of the form they have produced. Island Sunset is that horse today. She is no doubt very talented, but she steps up to a trip she has not raced over today, on a track she has never raced at. She has yet to race after a break of only 36 days and is up 6lbs in the handicap. She beat a 75 rated rival last time out by a short head.
I am happy to take her on with Officer In Command and Confidentiality. Officer command is a front runner who is on the improve, and his defeat to December Draw last time out looks like rock solid form given the achievements of December Draw since then - he is now rated 90, has stepped up in class and posted a 1st and a 2nd (including an RPR of 102) and runs in Listed company tomorrow. Officer In Command looks very fairly handicapped off 82.
Confidentiality is a game mare who has been there, done that and got the t-shirt. She has held her own in top all-weather company this winter and her runs behind Mafeking, Orchard Supreme and December Draw all look rock solid. 11/2 is too big and I'm happy to dutch this pair at guaranteed prices.
An interesting betting heat even with the withdrawl of Cold Turkey earlier this morning. Prince Charlamagne is the fav here and I'm happy to take him on. He has been on the go for most of the winter and to my mind is beginning to look a little exposed over this trip. 13 furlongs looks a little on the sharp side for him without a proper pace in the race and he has been caught out a couple of times this year at around a mile and a half in fields of ten or less. He is opposed with Mr. Plod, who represents the resurgent Andrew Reid, back in the training game after a serious enough car accident in 2008. Reid's string are in good form and the selection makes his reappearance after a 100 day break today. He travelled well at Kempton last time out but found nil when asked - the break since suggests something may have been amiss. His penultimate run at this course was full of promise. He travelled supremely well off what was only a fair pace and quickened really impressively in the home straight to with with loads in hand. He posted an RPR of 67 that day, and I think he has been lucky in that the handicapper has only raised him 6lbs to a mark of 56. If he can repeat the Lingfield run or even get close to it, he can land the spoils here.
Some of you may wonder why I'm not playing 2pts e/w in an 8 runner race. I only play each-way at these kind of odds when there is absolutely no doubts about the horse, and it has run well recently. In such circumstances, the right selections will tend to win or nick a place when there are 8 or 9 in a handicap, and you can save your stake. However we're taking a chance on Mr Plod's fitness - he is a win only proposition. It should be said, if it was well known that Mr. Plod was capable of running to his Lingfield form today, he would be a lot shorter than 5/1.
5.00 Lingfield Officer In Command 2pts win @ 11/2, Confidentiality 2pts win @ 11/2 (Both generally, get guaranteed)
Racing loves an unbeaten horse, and sometimes horses who have yet to taste defeat are sent off at unfeasibly short prices on the basis of a string of 1's next to their name, irrelevant of the merits of the form they have produced. Island Sunset is that horse today. She is no doubt very talented, but she steps up to a trip she has not raced over today, on a track she has never raced at. She has yet to race after a break of only 36 days and is up 6lbs in the handicap. She beat a 75 rated rival last time out by a short head.
I am happy to take her on with Officer In Command and Confidentiality. Officer command is a front runner who is on the improve, and his defeat to December Draw last time out looks like rock solid form given the achievements of December Draw since then - he is now rated 90, has stepped up in class and posted a 1st and a 2nd (including an RPR of 102) and runs in Listed company tomorrow. Officer In Command looks very fairly handicapped off 82.
Confidentiality is a game mare who has been there, done that and got the t-shirt. She has held her own in top all-weather company this winter and her runs behind Mafeking, Orchard Supreme and December Draw all look rock solid. 11/2 is too big and I'm happy to dutch this pair at guaranteed prices.
Flat Season 2010 Preview
Well, it's time to come back down to earth after all the fun of Cheltenham, which for us was profitable thanks in no small part to a large bet on Binocular who won the Champion Hurdle at 9/1, and a decent ante post hit on Alberta's Run at 25/1. We had a big priced winner each day in our main analysis and numerous each-way shots, it maintains our record of finishing every festival since '05 profitable, and I'm happy with that.
As many of you will know, last year was our best flat season ever and it was helped by our excellent record with maximum bets, and a couple of handicap winners at huge prices (Highly Regal winning the London Mile after we'd taken everything over 50/1 on Betfair springs to mind!). However, as the season went on it became apparent that we were doing really well with our two year olds, not only that but it seemed we were beating the S.P. by some way into the bargain. When they didn't win, we were backing an S.P. 7/2 shot at 7/1 and so forth. Some regressive analysis over the winter suggested to me that concentrating more on two year olds and three year olds will be a very profitable ploy for us this year, and that is what we intend to do. I find there is a certain predictability with younger, improving horses that you don't get with older handicappers whose fitness and peak training patterns are harder to grasp. So, our bread and butter once the flat season proper begins, will be the 2yo's and 3yo's.
Having said that, we'll be attacking all the big meetings full on, and will have the usual analysis of each race for Aintree, Punchestown, Royal Ascot, Goodwood, York and all the other big ones. Group 1 races will be looked at in detail as usual, and we'll often bet them. We will also be recommending a bet in many of the big handicaps, an area we traditionally do well.
For any of you who have just joined, feel free to send on any questions or comments as we always welcome them. It can be a bit of a minefield joining a service for the first time and not knowing what to expect, so do clue yourself in by picking our brains.
Here's to another successful summer,
Dan and the team.
As many of you will know, last year was our best flat season ever and it was helped by our excellent record with maximum bets, and a couple of handicap winners at huge prices (Highly Regal winning the London Mile after we'd taken everything over 50/1 on Betfair springs to mind!). However, as the season went on it became apparent that we were doing really well with our two year olds, not only that but it seemed we were beating the S.P. by some way into the bargain. When they didn't win, we were backing an S.P. 7/2 shot at 7/1 and so forth. Some regressive analysis over the winter suggested to me that concentrating more on two year olds and three year olds will be a very profitable ploy for us this year, and that is what we intend to do. I find there is a certain predictability with younger, improving horses that you don't get with older handicappers whose fitness and peak training patterns are harder to grasp. So, our bread and butter once the flat season proper begins, will be the 2yo's and 3yo's.
Having said that, we'll be attacking all the big meetings full on, and will have the usual analysis of each race for Aintree, Punchestown, Royal Ascot, Goodwood, York and all the other big ones. Group 1 races will be looked at in detail as usual, and we'll often bet them. We will also be recommending a bet in many of the big handicaps, an area we traditionally do well.
For any of you who have just joined, feel free to send on any questions or comments as we always welcome them. It can be a bit of a minefield joining a service for the first time and not knowing what to expect, so do clue yourself in by picking our brains.
Here's to another successful summer,
Dan and the team.
Thursday March 25th
One bet for tonight:
Raif Beckett does extremely well in maidens at Kempton and he sends a very interesting runner to contest one of the fillies maidens tonight at 6.50. Goolagong made her debut in a hot contest at Sandown last summer, the form of which has worked out well with numerous placed efforts and the 8th, 9th and 10th all winning since. She was trapped out wide for most of that contest but acquited herself really well in laying up with the pace for most of the contest, staying on at the finish for a trainer whose horses generally improve for the run. She is out of Giant's Causeway and looks equally well bred on her dams side. If she has progressed over the winter, I really fancy her to overturn the favourite from a great draw in stall 11.
6.50 Kempton GOOLAGONG 6pts win @ 11/4 (Bet 365, guaranteed)
Raif Beckett does extremely well in maidens at Kempton and he sends a very interesting runner to contest one of the fillies maidens tonight at 6.50. Goolagong made her debut in a hot contest at Sandown last summer, the form of which has worked out well with numerous placed efforts and the 8th, 9th and 10th all winning since. She was trapped out wide for most of that contest but acquited herself really well in laying up with the pace for most of the contest, staying on at the finish for a trainer whose horses generally improve for the run. She is out of Giant's Causeway and looks equally well bred on her dams side. If she has progressed over the winter, I really fancy her to overturn the favourite from a great draw in stall 11.
6.50 Kempton GOOLAGONG 6pts win @ 11/4 (Bet 365, guaranteed)
Wednesday March 24th
Two bets for today following a quiet start to the week.
In the 5.50 at Kempton, Major Promise is a worthy favourite for Janhe Chapple Hyam. His run over 12f last time out in December was really promising, he pulled too hard and was clear until around the furlong pole before fading. Immediately, I thought he should be given a little rest and sent over 10f for a spring campaign. That is exactly what Chapple Hyam has done, and the handicapper has left him on a mark of 55 which looks very fair. The excellent Chapple Hyam doesn't have many 55 rated plodders these days and her record with her small string is impressive. She is a very talented and underrated trainer, and having cottoned on to what looks Major Promise's best trip, she may have another winner on her hands here.
Jumeirah Plain made a really nice debut at this course last time out despite looking green at various points. She gets a 5lb fillies allowance from the Gosden trained favourite and has proven fitness on her side. Trainer David Simcock has a really good record in 3yo maidens and he does know how to handle a good horse - this filly looks like an 80+ horse at least. Gosden's mob have been in good form but many of them have been tenderly handled on their returns and a couple have picked up weak contests. Jumeirah Plains will be a decent test for him here and she looks the value at Laddies' guaranteed 3/1.
Best Recommendation:
5.50 Kempton Major Promise, 5pts win @ 10/3 (VC Bet, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
6.50 Kempton Jumeirah Plain, 5pts win @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
In the 5.50 at Kempton, Major Promise is a worthy favourite for Janhe Chapple Hyam. His run over 12f last time out in December was really promising, he pulled too hard and was clear until around the furlong pole before fading. Immediately, I thought he should be given a little rest and sent over 10f for a spring campaign. That is exactly what Chapple Hyam has done, and the handicapper has left him on a mark of 55 which looks very fair. The excellent Chapple Hyam doesn't have many 55 rated plodders these days and her record with her small string is impressive. She is a very talented and underrated trainer, and having cottoned on to what looks Major Promise's best trip, she may have another winner on her hands here.
Jumeirah Plain made a really nice debut at this course last time out despite looking green at various points. She gets a 5lb fillies allowance from the Gosden trained favourite and has proven fitness on her side. Trainer David Simcock has a really good record in 3yo maidens and he does know how to handle a good horse - this filly looks like an 80+ horse at least. Gosden's mob have been in good form but many of them have been tenderly handled on their returns and a couple have picked up weak contests. Jumeirah Plains will be a decent test for him here and she looks the value at Laddies' guaranteed 3/1.
Best Recommendation:
5.50 Kempton Major Promise, 5pts win @ 10/3 (VC Bet, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
6.50 Kempton Jumeirah Plain, 5pts win @ 3/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
Monday, March 22nd
Back to the grind today after a short break post-Cheltenham, which was kinder to us than to most!
We've had internet trouble all morning here so unfortunately on analysis. Gordon Road and National Theatre were both held up in a slow run race last time, which is working out quite well so far. They look the value with an unraced favourite and some questionable rivals.
Best Recommendation:
3.20 Wolves Gordon Road 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally), National Theatre 1pt win @ 25/1 (VC Bet)
We've had internet trouble all morning here so unfortunately on analysis. Gordon Road and National Theatre were both held up in a slow run race last time, which is working out quite well so far. They look the value with an unraced favourite and some questionable rivals.
Best Recommendation:
3.20 Wolves Gordon Road 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally), National Theatre 1pt win @ 25/1 (VC Bet)
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