4.25 Lingfield Mr Plod 3pts win @ 5/1 (VC Bet, Coral - guaranteed) - WON
An interesting betting heat even with the withdrawl of Cold Turkey earlier this morning. Prince Charlamagne is the fav here and I'm happy to take him on. He has been on the go for most of the winter and to my mind is beginning to look a little exposed over this trip. 13 furlongs looks a little on the sharp side for him without a proper pace in the race and he has been caught out a couple of times this year at around a mile and a half in fields of ten or less. He is opposed with Mr. Plod, who represents the resurgent Andrew Reid, back in the training game after a serious enough car accident in 2008. Reid's string are in good form and the selection makes his reappearance after a 100 day break today. He travelled well at Kempton last time out but found nil when asked - the break since suggests something may have been amiss. His penultimate run at this course was full of promise. He travelled supremely well off what was only a fair pace and quickened really impressively in the home straight to with with loads in hand. He posted an RPR of 67 that day, and I think he has been lucky in that the handicapper has only raised him 6lbs to a mark of 56. If he can repeat the Lingfield run or even get close to it, he can land the spoils here.
Some of you may wonder why I'm not playing 2pts e/w in an 8 runner race. I only play each-way at these kind of odds when there is absolutely no doubts about the horse, and it has run well recently. In such circumstances, the right selections will tend to win or nick a place when there are 8 or 9 in a handicap, and you can save your stake. However we're taking a chance on Mr Plod's fitness - he is a win only proposition. It should be said, if it was well known that Mr. Plod was capable of running to his Lingfield form today, he would be a lot shorter than 5/1.
5.00 Lingfield Officer In Command 2pts win @ 11/2, Confidentiality 2pts win @ 11/2 (Both generally, get guaranteed)
Racing loves an unbeaten horse, and sometimes horses who have yet to taste defeat are sent off at unfeasibly short prices on the basis of a string of 1's next to their name, irrelevant of the merits of the form they have produced. Island Sunset is that horse today. She is no doubt very talented, but she steps up to a trip she has not raced over today, on a track she has never raced at. She has yet to race after a break of only 36 days and is up 6lbs in the handicap. She beat a 75 rated rival last time out by a short head.
I am happy to take her on with Officer In Command and Confidentiality. Officer command is a front runner who is on the improve, and his defeat to December Draw last time out looks like rock solid form given the achievements of December Draw since then - he is now rated 90, has stepped up in class and posted a 1st and a 2nd (including an RPR of 102) and runs in Listed company tomorrow. Officer In Command looks very fairly handicapped off 82.
Confidentiality is a game mare who has been there, done that and got the t-shirt. She has held her own in top all-weather company this winter and her runs behind Mafeking, Orchard Supreme and December Draw all look rock solid. 11/2 is too big and I'm happy to dutch this pair at guaranteed prices.
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