Both our selections yesterday weakened and it was our first blatantly poor day in a while.
Just a note that there will be no bets tomorrow, as usual for a Sunday.
And on to one of the biggest days in the racing calander...
3.10 Aintree Khyber Kim 3pts win @ 7/2 WON (Generally, get guaranteed), Muirhead 1pt win @ 14/1 (generally, get guaranteed) 2ND - Aintree Hurdle 1-2!
A race for me in which the markets absolutely dictate that we go against the grain. Zaynar today is what I would describe as a "world and its granny" type bet. The whole world, its mother, and granny knows that Zaynar has always wanted a stiffer test than the two miles of the Champion Hurdle, everyone knows Khyber Kim goes best fresh and are expecting him to bomb out today a la Imperial Commander, and it's clear his stamina has to be taken on trust. I'm looking at it a different way. I think this is a class horse, he beat Zaynar by six lengths at Cheltenham, and he had no problem following up his November win in the Greatwood with a career best in the Boylesports 27 days later. He is still a fresh horse, is a different beast this year, and the 7/2 price about him confirming Cheltenham form with Zaynar is quite amazing. Rarely have I seen two prices so heavily influenced by media opinion.
If there is to be a surprise, Muirhead may well provide it. As I've said before, Noel Meade doesn't send horses across the water willy nilly, and on Muirhead's best form he has a good shout here. He has been running on heavy ground for a long time now, but this is a real change of tack to present him with two and a half miles and goodish ground. He comes here a fresh horse and he might well cause an upset.
4.15 Aintree - The Grand National - Niche Market 1pt each-way @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Stan James - 5 places paid), Cloudy Lane 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Bet 365, 5 places paid)
Trends analyst Henry Croskery helps out with our big race analysis from time to time, and he sent an excellent write up a couple of days ago, as follows:
MDB - meets all the trends bar weight/rating. Has won at the course over 25f last year(not GN fences). Wouldn't fancy him off a stone less.
Mon Mome - only 7lbs higher than last year and ran a real eye catcher in the GC, again meets all the trends bar weight. Place chances.
Vic Venturi - Beecher chase winner, weight would be the only concern, but the hcapper thinks he is best in(along with Black Apalachi). Has won 3 times this season - last 10 winners had won no more than once.
Black Apalachi - Beecher chase winner of 2 seasons ago. Going very well when unseated last year, only 1lbs higher this year. Has only had 2 runs this season.
Joe Lively - meets a lot of the trends, again bar weight, only really fails on the Top 5 Hennessy/ Top 3 IGN or SGN or WGN... etc.
Don't Push It - Meets all the trends, bar weight. Will be well supported if AP plums for him, has a great ew chance.
Comply Or Die - winner 2 years ago, 2nd last year, 7lbs better off with MM, but has only ran twice this season. Place chances again.
Tricky Trickster - Is a 7yo, with 11-4, has only had 3 runs this season and 6 chase runs ever! Combine that with blowing his chances by winning the Aon. Stays well, but not for me.
Niche Market - IGN winner last year, 3rd in the Hennessy, Denman fluffing his lines in the Aon didn't help his weight, but meets all the trends, and must have a great chance.
Made in Tiapan - where to start? Weight, class, trip all against him, looks madness to run him.
Dream Alliance - WGN winner, 2nd in the 2007 Hennessy, only has the 3 runs this term, but meets every other trend and must have a great ew shout.
Cloudy Lane - No top 3 finish last 3 runs, looks out of sorts and easily passed over.
Nozic - Fails on a few trends - no top3/last3; only 2 runs this season; last run over 50days ago & doesn't meet the Top 5 Hennessy etc trend.
My Will - 3rd in the race last year off 2lbs higher, form is solid if not great(no Top3/last3), may have come in under the radar this term, is 5 times his sp from last year.
Pablo Du Charmil - fails on at least 6 trends, no.
Ballyholland - Hasn't won a 3mile+ chase, no top3 in a C1 3mile chase, the trip is must be a serious concern. Fails on at least 3 trends.
Backstage - only 9 chase starts(10+ the trend), no top 3 C1 3mile, fails on the TS 128+, and also the Top 5 hennessy etc.
Beat The Boys - Meets quite a few trends, all bar the Top 5 Hennessy... trend, but has too many P's beside his name.
Priests Leap - Wants it soft, is out of form(no top3/last£), Fails on 4 trends. Too moody.
Snowy Morning - Meets all the trends, handles the course and fences, 9lbs lower than last year, and only 2 higher than when 3rd
two years ago. Must have a great ew chance of this mark.
Can't Buy Time - only the 3 runs this term, never been in the top 3 C1 over 3miles+, and fails the Top 5 Hennessy etc trend. Fell in the race last year, trip is a concern.
Big Fella Thanks - big effort last year to finish 6th as a 7yo novice. Fails on two trends - only had 3 runs this year and no top 5 Hennessy etc. Could be very well treated of 146 though! Respected.
State of Play - 4th last year of 5lbs higher, only had the one run in which he pulled up which is a worry, did only run twice last year(but ran well both times). Fails on a few trends, and maybe one to back in running.
Character Building - only two runs this term, both don't look anything great on the face of it, but both were w/o the tongue tie. 3rd in the Hennessy in 2007, would be foolish to write him off.
Ellerisle George - meets all the trends bar TS and Top 5 Hennessy... Has won twice this season, and form at the course isn't great.
Eric's Charm - in great form, stays all day, has only ran twice this season, winning two of those runs, which are actually trend negatives. He is a 12yo too, which although trend positive, 9-11yos are preferred. Place chance at best.
King John's Castle - 2nd in 2008, injury has kept him away from the track mostly. Fails quite a few trends, form being the main worry, as he was actually in good form two years ago. Reunited with Paul Carberry and will have his fans at 40/1.
Conna Castle - can't see how he will stay this trip?! Fails about 5 trends.
Ballyfitz - Fails on 3 trends - Top3/last3, not won a 20K+ chase, and top 5 Hennessy... Not a great jumper, despite never having fallen(did unseat once) must be a concern.
Ollie Magern - only fails on top3/last3, but at the age of 12 that must be a concern. Hard to fancy.
Arbour Supreme - Still only an 8yo, has only had the 3runs this term, and although he doesn't technically meet the top 5 Hennessy trend, he has won over 29&30f. There are a few questions marks as to whether or not he meets all the trends(won C2+ & top3 C1 over 3miles+). Have been waiting over two years for him to run in this, but I have a few nagging doubts.
Maljimar - avoided Cheltenham for this, so fails the 50day trend. Only had the 3 runs this season, but again been kept for this alone.
Never actually won over 3miles+, but has placed. Stays, but it would be Crisp mark two if he was leading going to the elbow.
The Package - stays well, but is only a 7yo, and has only had 8 chase starts.A year too early for me.
Piraya - another 7yo, fails on a few trends, including having not won a 3mile+ chase. No.
Irish Raptor - first choice of the Gold Cup winning team and sure to be popular, but fails on too many trends for me.
PD Creek - another 7yo, only fails on age and Top 5 Hennessy etc. Would be better off in the Topham and waiting a year.
Hello Bud - SGN winner of last year, fails on no top3/last3 runs - which at the age of 12 must be a concern. Looks like a year too late.
Flintoff - was 3rd in the 2008 SGN, but fails on a lot of trends.
Cerium - 5th last year at 100/1. fails a lot of trends, as he did last year, trainer is keen to see him run. Could run into the minor money again if he gets in.
Royal Rosa - trainer is keen for him to run, but looks too exposed and fails too many trends.
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Thanks to Henry for that analysis.
Niche Market is last year's Irish Grand National winner and has had this contest as his target pretty much ever since. He fits most of the trends and looks a very thorough stayer. A lack of previous Aintree experience is the biggest negative for me, but I'm willing to take the chance that he enjoys the big fences.
Cloudy Lane was favourite for this two years ago but didn't really run his race. He was unlucky last year, but he is still only ten and he ran a very decent race last time out behind Wogan. 40/1 looks a big each-way price and don't forget the McCains have won this race four times. I'm disagreeing with the above trends here, and having a small each-way bet.
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