Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Tuesday March 30th

One of those days yesterday, where we supported a horse who was a notable and marked drifter just before the off. Gojeri was a lot shorter than an 8/1 chance on form, but to be honest I felt a shocker was on the cards when I seen the drift and that's what we got. He was never really put in the race, looked as though he'd come on for the run, and all in all I'd say connections will be happy to step him up to 8f or 10f in a handicap soon off the mark of around 70 he'll be awarded.

No flat action today but we do have on small interest in the jumps racing.

5.00 Fontwell My Matilda, 1pt each-way @ 14/1 (Totesport - should be available elsewhere after 10am - get guaranteed) - WON

The odds compilers don't seem to have realised as of yet how good Lawney Hill is with other people's cast offs, and she sends the ex-Andrew Turnell My Matilda to her local track Fontwell today. She has a 3/11 27% strike rate at Fontwell this season and things seem to be coming together for the small stable she runs with her husband. The selection is her only representative at the meeting and is the only mount of jockey Christian Williams, who rode a double for Lawney a few weeks back and maintains a respectable 12% strike rate for the stable over the last five seasons.

Being out of Silver Patriarch, My Matilda is bred for staying distances and testing ground. She has failed to make the grade as a chaser thus far, and the biggest hints that she possesses some latent ability have come when presented with a proper stamina test on soft ground over hurdles. A one-paced third at Leicester in '07 over 17f on soft and a plodding 4th in a Novice Hurdle at stamina sapping Towcester are the best evidence of this. Clearly, she has little worthwhile form to speak of but there are some very slow, bad horses in this contest and she looks well treated off a mark of 68. My Matilda is bred to be a bit better than these, and if Lawney has found the key to her, she looks the most likely to shake up the odds on favourite and looks a decent value each-way bet.

This looks the sort of horse that could be tipped elsewhere, so the advice is to take the guaranteed 14/1 early doors.

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