Another really good day yesterday with our 20/1 shot Rainbow Six running second after being heavily backed. He traded 1.50 in running and for a moment looked like winning but fair play to Belinsky who is a big beast of a horse and pulled out more. Both should win soon. We made 8pts profit and are over 50pts up for the week.
3.10 Goodwood Soul Station 3pts win @ 11/2 (Generally, guaranteed) WON
Represents Roger Charlton whose stable have been running into form and who does particularly well with this type of three year old. Soul Station ran really well on his reappearance last time out in a strong Sandown handicap which traditionally throws up winners even though this years winner has since disappointed. The selection was drawn wide and was free early in the contest, also suffering a wide trip/ lack of cover and interference in the last furlong, but to his credit battled on to finish fourth. His jockey wasn't overly hard on him at any point in the race and he was allowed to come home under hands and heels riding. He posted an RPR of 88 that day off a mark of 82, and I'm surprised the handicapper has not reacted - he runs off 82 again here and if he improves for the seasonal debut should go close to winning this.
4.55 Goodwood Epsom Salts 2pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, guaranteed) - 2nd
Decent bit of pace on in this contest and Pat Phelan's Epsom Salts looks a value bet at 11/1 to cause a minor shock by winning under decent 7lb claimer Richard Rowe. I really like Phelan's stable, his horses seem to regularly outperform market expectations and he does particularly well with staying handicappers. Epsom Salts is an aptly named Epsom specialist but should also appreciate Goodwood's undulations. His first two runs this season will have put an edge on him and he was staying on really well last time (albeit from an impossible position) when he was mullered by another horse at Windsor. That was arguably a stronger contest and the handicapper has dropped him a pound for that run. Rowe takes an additional 7lb off. If they go a good pace up front, I think the selection can stay on late on to get involved in the finish.
5.30 Goodwood Avrilo 6pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, guaranteed) WON
My bet of the day. I had considered an each-way maximum, but the price wasn't quite right. I priced up Avrilo as a 7/2 shot last night and I feel she might be backed in on course. She looks to be a slowly improving sprinter and I have suspicions that she might be around 10lb ahead of her current mark, even though she is 0/20 so far. She has finished in the frame eight times and second five times in twenty starts, usually at Bath, like Goodwood an undulating track. A 16-start three year old career means she is an experienced handicapper now, but as a four year old she is still open to improvement this season and there is reason to believe she will begin to show that improvement today. On her seasonal debut, she made plenty of ground from a wide draw (stall 16) at Bath and ran a strong looking race at the head of affairs, doing best of those to race prominently and getting done in the last half furlong by two closers. She had real work to do to get across and I marked up her performance because of that. Clearly someone agreed because she was sent off a well backed favourite next time out at Bath, but was totally chopped off in her run at a crucial stage, and allowed to come home under hands and heels only - still only beaten three lengths. She still looked full of running and it looked to me as if she would have relished the uphill finish and won that race. She is entered here for a race her trainer has won twice in the last three years and I actually think the smaller field will suit her, given her prominent racing style. She should relish the stiff Goodwood finish and Ashley Morgan, the decent apprentice attached to Mark Tompkin's stable, makes the trip to Goodwood for the one ride.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Tuesday May 18th
A fabulous day yesterday with Sacrosanctus winning handily and I hope you all got the early 12/1 - it was available pretty much until the on course markets opened. I did say that 2yo's and 3yo's would be the making of our year, and this was one of the first opportunities to bet in the kind of 2yo race I like, where most of the field have experience. We'll get a lot more of this kind of thing from July onward, and believe me it'll be time to get the proper betting boots on then. The last week has been a reminder of how quickly a losing run of even two weeks can be wiped out with our simple value betting approach - we made over 43pts profit yesterday alone.
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One interest for today, and it's a much bigger price than I had forecast.
2.00 Nottingham Ranbow Six 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) Each-way 2nd
Represents Marco Botti, who has an excellent 5/30 17% strike rate at Nottingham in recent years returning a level stakes profit of +11.40. The selection has been noted last twice pulling hard and failing to get home over trips of one mile both at this course and at Kempton. He looks a nicely put together, strong gelding who appears to have plenty of speed, and my thinking is that he has inherited all his mother's speed and none of his dad's stamina. His dam Birthday Suit was a speedball who didn't get much beyond the minimum five furlongs, but she did not lack for ability, winning her first two contests over five furlongs and ending up rated 102 before being sent to the paddocks. The manner of Birthday Suit's last two defeats really does suggest he is worth a try over sprint distances and he seems to have the physicality of a sprinter to boot. The handicapper has dropped him to a leniant looking mark of 65 for one of his breeding, and in a fairly modest contest he is worthy of an each-way interest at a rewarding price. Interesting we're drawn in the middle where most of the action has taken place in recent 6f sprints at this course, many of the market principals are drawn low today.
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One interest for today, and it's a much bigger price than I had forecast.
2.00 Nottingham Ranbow Six 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) Each-way 2nd
Represents Marco Botti, who has an excellent 5/30 17% strike rate at Nottingham in recent years returning a level stakes profit of +11.40. The selection has been noted last twice pulling hard and failing to get home over trips of one mile both at this course and at Kempton. He looks a nicely put together, strong gelding who appears to have plenty of speed, and my thinking is that he has inherited all his mother's speed and none of his dad's stamina. His dam Birthday Suit was a speedball who didn't get much beyond the minimum five furlongs, but she did not lack for ability, winning her first two contests over five furlongs and ending up rated 102 before being sent to the paddocks. The manner of Birthday Suit's last two defeats really does suggest he is worth a try over sprint distances and he seems to have the physicality of a sprinter to boot. The handicapper has dropped him to a leniant looking mark of 65 for one of his breeding, and in a fairly modest contest he is worthy of an each-way interest at a rewarding price. Interesting we're drawn in the middle where most of the action has taken place in recent 6f sprints at this course, many of the market principals are drawn low today.
Monday May 17th
One bet for Monday.
2.40 Wolves Sacrosanctus 3pts each-way @ 12/1 (Paddy Power, VC Bet, guaranteed) WON
Sacrosanctus represents a team who are not renowned for their two year old runners, but they do get the occasional winner in this sphere and the stable has been in fine form just lately. It interests me that the selection was as short as 6/1 on course for his debut in a fair maiden contested by OR mid-70's types at Thirsk. He was green and misbehaved in the paddock, unshipping Freddie Tylicki and he was nervous behind the stalls at the start. That didn't stop him getting a flying start and looking quite professional in the early part of the contest, travelling easily with an experienced horse of Michael Dods, before blowing up completely having set a manic pace, and finishing pretty much tailed off.
It is possible he used much of his energy up in the paddock and on the way to the start at Thirsk, and I think if he improves mentally for that run, he looks a nice enough type physically to improve and win a moderate contest such as this second time out. He is drawn in stall three, on the outside of the favourite, who has twice been tardy at the start, and a Peter Grayson newcomer who will probably need today's experience. If he can conserve his energy for the race today, and if he has improved in terms of fitness, he might be ideally drawn to bag an early lead and make all to win. His dam improved to win on her only outing on an artificial surface, and it may be that Sacrosanctus has inherited the speed of his damsire Catrail moreso than the miling influence of his sire Sakhee.
2.40 Wolves Sacrosanctus 3pts each-way @ 12/1 (Paddy Power, VC Bet, guaranteed) WON
Sacrosanctus represents a team who are not renowned for their two year old runners, but they do get the occasional winner in this sphere and the stable has been in fine form just lately. It interests me that the selection was as short as 6/1 on course for his debut in a fair maiden contested by OR mid-70's types at Thirsk. He was green and misbehaved in the paddock, unshipping Freddie Tylicki and he was nervous behind the stalls at the start. That didn't stop him getting a flying start and looking quite professional in the early part of the contest, travelling easily with an experienced horse of Michael Dods, before blowing up completely having set a manic pace, and finishing pretty much tailed off.
It is possible he used much of his energy up in the paddock and on the way to the start at Thirsk, and I think if he improves mentally for that run, he looks a nice enough type physically to improve and win a moderate contest such as this second time out. He is drawn in stall three, on the outside of the favourite, who has twice been tardy at the start, and a Peter Grayson newcomer who will probably need today's experience. If he can conserve his energy for the race today, and if he has improved in terms of fitness, he might be ideally drawn to bag an early lead and make all to win. His dam improved to win on her only outing on an artificial surface, and it may be that Sacrosanctus has inherited the speed of his damsire Catrail moreso than the miling influence of his sire Sakhee.
Sunday May 16th
Flambeau won well yesterday putting us in profit for the day.
One big priced bet today.
2.50 Longchamp Mon Cadeaux 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Ran a nice race behind Society Rock on his reappearance, and has scope for plenty of improvement if he appreciates today's longer trip, which he is bred to do. Jimmy Fortune takes the ride on this colt of Andrew Balding's, a trainer we follow closely here at Strikeline and one who does not tilt at windmills. His draw in stall 4 looks ideal for one who likes to be tucked in and held up for a late run. I think this big field and strong pace will suit really well, and I personally priced him up as a 20/1 shot so I reckon 40's is great value and should be taken to speculative stakes. The trainer sounds happy with him:
"I'm very happy with the colt and everything has gone smoothly since his last race. He was meant to run in a trial at the Craven meeting but had a small problem, so we had to run him over an inadequate distance at Ascot and were very pleased in the circumstances. I've always felt Mon Cadeaux would get a mile, although it's not a given, so we'll have to see. I'm expecting a good run."
One big priced bet today.
2.50 Longchamp Mon Cadeaux 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Ran a nice race behind Society Rock on his reappearance, and has scope for plenty of improvement if he appreciates today's longer trip, which he is bred to do. Jimmy Fortune takes the ride on this colt of Andrew Balding's, a trainer we follow closely here at Strikeline and one who does not tilt at windmills. His draw in stall 4 looks ideal for one who likes to be tucked in and held up for a late run. I think this big field and strong pace will suit really well, and I personally priced him up as a 20/1 shot so I reckon 40's is great value and should be taken to speculative stakes. The trainer sounds happy with him:
"I'm very happy with the colt and everything has gone smoothly since his last race. He was meant to run in a trial at the Craven meeting but had a small problem, so we had to run him over an inadequate distance at Ascot and were very pleased in the circumstances. I've always felt Mon Cadeaux would get a mile, although it's not a given, so we'll have to see. I'm expecting a good run."
Saturday May 15th
Two nice each-way bets ensured profit yesterday.
3.05 Newbury Zacinto 5pts win @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
Paco Boy was turned over at shorts odds over course and distance in this race last year so I see no reason why he is value at odds on for today's contest. I also think Richard Hannon had most of his horses ready to go early on an I feel he is doubtful to improve on his Sandown effort. Zacinto has had this race as his target for a while now and I feel he is a top class horse whose form stands up to the closest scrutiny. His second behind Rip Van Winkle stands out in particular and I think Sir Michael Stoute is likely to have him as fit as he can for this, because he is proven to go well fresh and this represents a really good chance to win a prestigious Group 1. I think 7/2 is a gross misrepresentation of his abilities and I thought he was more like a 9/4 shot.
5.10 Newmarket Mac's Power 3pts win @ 8/1
Bombed out at Kempton but that wouldn't be the first time Jams Fanshawe has got the trip wrong for one of his horses (Society Rock!) and even though Mac's has won over a mile, I'm not sure he stays it very well. Refused to settle last time out and over seven furlongs with a better pace to the race here I expect a better run. Has not really had many tries on turf but looks a decent price here and I'm happy to take a chance on him.
5.25 Newbury Flambeau 4pts win @ 10/3 (Generally) WON
Goes up against Starclass here but I think Flambeau holds better claims. They both come from a Salisbury maiden that has worked out really, really well (check the form out!), loads of good fillies have come out and won from that race since. Flambeau has a bit more speed in her pedigree than Starclass and she travelled very easily without any cover for the duration of that race, right on the speed where as Starclass was in rear. She got tapped for toe or may have been unfit or green when the pace lifted, but she was not given a hard time of it at all and she started to run on really well at the finish under hands and heels, finishing 5th pretty much on the bridle. Stable form has been in and out but they did have a winner the other day and I think Flambeau will be well backed today. If she has progressed, she should win here.
3.05 Newbury Zacinto 5pts win @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
Paco Boy was turned over at shorts odds over course and distance in this race last year so I see no reason why he is value at odds on for today's contest. I also think Richard Hannon had most of his horses ready to go early on an I feel he is doubtful to improve on his Sandown effort. Zacinto has had this race as his target for a while now and I feel he is a top class horse whose form stands up to the closest scrutiny. His second behind Rip Van Winkle stands out in particular and I think Sir Michael Stoute is likely to have him as fit as he can for this, because he is proven to go well fresh and this represents a really good chance to win a prestigious Group 1. I think 7/2 is a gross misrepresentation of his abilities and I thought he was more like a 9/4 shot.
5.10 Newmarket Mac's Power 3pts win @ 8/1
Bombed out at Kempton but that wouldn't be the first time Jams Fanshawe has got the trip wrong for one of his horses (Society Rock!) and even though Mac's has won over a mile, I'm not sure he stays it very well. Refused to settle last time out and over seven furlongs with a better pace to the race here I expect a better run. Has not really had many tries on turf but looks a decent price here and I'm happy to take a chance on him.
5.25 Newbury Flambeau 4pts win @ 10/3 (Generally) WON
Goes up against Starclass here but I think Flambeau holds better claims. They both come from a Salisbury maiden that has worked out really, really well (check the form out!), loads of good fillies have come out and won from that race since. Flambeau has a bit more speed in her pedigree than Starclass and she travelled very easily without any cover for the duration of that race, right on the speed where as Starclass was in rear. She got tapped for toe or may have been unfit or green when the pace lifted, but she was not given a hard time of it at all and she started to run on really well at the finish under hands and heels, finishing 5th pretty much on the bridle. Stable form has been in and out but they did have a winner the other day and I think Flambeau will be well backed today. If she has progressed, she should win here.
Friday May 14th
Firstly today a litte issue which will be dealt with swiftly.
Somebody on the paid list is giving our daily tips to the Relayline, who are distributing them via their website. It has been going on a couple of weeks. I know the person distributing the tips is on this list, I'm going to ask if that person can please e-mail me today, and we can sort this out with no hassle and no fuss - it's not a big deal as it stands, but it needs sorting.
2.30 Newmarket Rain On The Wind 2pts each-way, 1pt win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) Each-way 3rd
As far as I can see, this selection has much the best recent form of this lot, along with the favourite. The Beckett horse wants further, and the Tompkins horse won a poor race at Yarmouth. The Epsom handicap Rain On The Wind ran in last time has worked out extremely well and this looks a no-brainer each-way bet. Small field will be fine as he likes to race prominently.
5.10 Newmarket Rowan Tiger 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Paddy Power, Stan James, guaranteed)
Each-way 3rd
Pulled the arms out of Cosgrave last time out at Goodwood, steps back to ten furlongs today and the big field and likely strong pace should play right into his hands. Has been priced up 16/1 because they don't think he goes on turf (the bookies) but I think they're wrong, i reckon trip / track has been the issue. A galloping ten coming off a good pace should be perfect and I can't believe the handicapper has dropped him to a mark of 70 - I think he is an 80+ horse. Stable slowly coming back to form.
Somebody on the paid list is giving our daily tips to the Relayline, who are distributing them via their website. It has been going on a couple of weeks. I know the person distributing the tips is on this list, I'm going to ask if that person can please e-mail me today, and we can sort this out with no hassle and no fuss - it's not a big deal as it stands, but it needs sorting.
2.30 Newmarket Rain On The Wind 2pts each-way, 1pt win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) Each-way 3rd
As far as I can see, this selection has much the best recent form of this lot, along with the favourite. The Beckett horse wants further, and the Tompkins horse won a poor race at Yarmouth. The Epsom handicap Rain On The Wind ran in last time has worked out extremely well and this looks a no-brainer each-way bet. Small field will be fine as he likes to race prominently.
5.10 Newmarket Rowan Tiger 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Paddy Power, Stan James, guaranteed)
Each-way 3rd
Pulled the arms out of Cosgrave last time out at Goodwood, steps back to ten furlongs today and the big field and likely strong pace should play right into his hands. Has been priced up 16/1 because they don't think he goes on turf (the bookies) but I think they're wrong, i reckon trip / track has been the issue. A galloping ten coming off a good pace should be perfect and I can't believe the handicapper has dropped him to a mark of 70 - I think he is an 80+ horse. Stable slowly coming back to form.
Thursday May 13th
No return yesterday but I'm quite positive about a couple of our selections. Two of them in particular (Zero and Mullionmileanhour) will be winning soon and we'll reap the benefits of them another day.
2.10 York - the Madison Stakes - Midday 6pts win @ 2/1 (Coral, William Hill - get guaranteed)
2pts double Midday @ 15/8, with Zacinto @ 3/1 (Lockinge stakes, Saturday - prices with Paddy Power)
An interesting contest at York today in the shape of the ten furlong Madison Stakes and I must say I think Midday is a huge price at 2/1 to beat Sariska, and hopefully the other two less fancied fillies, who have it to find on the book in my view.
I think the fact that Sariska is even favourite is lazy, reputation orientated bookmaking. She won the Irish Guineas easily on a bog, and has not been as progressive as Midday since then, nor as straightforward in my opinion. Nobody has mentioned that she has been tardy from the stalls on her last two runs and that would worry me as a possible sign of a filly souring. She does not have as much speed as Midday either - she had to be ridden on good to firm ground over 12 furlongs here and could get get close to Dar Re Mi who was giving her ten pounds. Today she steps back to ten furlongs on similar ground, why should she perform any better today under conditions which have not brought out the best in her in the past? Midday on the other hand likes good to firm ground, and seems to have developed into a proper ten furlong specialist. I'm hoping the following happens: Sariska is tardy from the stalls, Spencer rides her along to settle her in rear. Midday sits two lengths in front of her, three lengths off the Swinbank filly who will probably front run. Midday kicks first, and wins the race with her better speed. I think 2/1 is big.
I've also had a double with Zacinto and am advising you lot to do the same! He runs in the Lockinge stakes on Saturday and is a strong fancy of mine to win. The double pays 10.5/1 with Paddy Power and looks well worth 2pts.
2.10 York - the Madison Stakes - Midday 6pts win @ 2/1 (Coral, William Hill - get guaranteed)
2pts double Midday @ 15/8, with Zacinto @ 3/1 (Lockinge stakes, Saturday - prices with Paddy Power)
An interesting contest at York today in the shape of the ten furlong Madison Stakes and I must say I think Midday is a huge price at 2/1 to beat Sariska, and hopefully the other two less fancied fillies, who have it to find on the book in my view.
I think the fact that Sariska is even favourite is lazy, reputation orientated bookmaking. She won the Irish Guineas easily on a bog, and has not been as progressive as Midday since then, nor as straightforward in my opinion. Nobody has mentioned that she has been tardy from the stalls on her last two runs and that would worry me as a possible sign of a filly souring. She does not have as much speed as Midday either - she had to be ridden on good to firm ground over 12 furlongs here and could get get close to Dar Re Mi who was giving her ten pounds. Today she steps back to ten furlongs on similar ground, why should she perform any better today under conditions which have not brought out the best in her in the past? Midday on the other hand likes good to firm ground, and seems to have developed into a proper ten furlong specialist. I'm hoping the following happens: Sariska is tardy from the stalls, Spencer rides her along to settle her in rear. Midday sits two lengths in front of her, three lengths off the Swinbank filly who will probably front run. Midday kicks first, and wins the race with her better speed. I think 2/1 is big.
I've also had a double with Zacinto and am advising you lot to do the same! He runs in the Lockinge stakes on Saturday and is a strong fancy of mine to win. The double pays 10.5/1 with Paddy Power and looks well worth 2pts.
Wednesday May 12th
Another cracking day yesterday with Capable Guest winning for us and 29pts profit in the bag.
Today, like Saturday, is one of those days where we need to accommodate a large number of selections with careful staking. Stick to the staking carefully.
2.40 York Bikini Babe 3pts win @ 9/1 (Bet 365, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
A hard race to decipher but the top two in the market do not look bombproof. Henry Cecil's Aviate has stamina questions to answer and Aidan O'Brien's Cabaret represents a stable whose horses have yet to hit form. Bikini Babe has had this race as her target for quite a while:
Mark Johnston, trainer: "The handicapper dropped her 2lb for her run at Sandown and based on that she has a bit to find. I could have found easier races like the Lingfield Oaks Trial and the Chester race, but the Musidora is the race we planned during the winter and we have decided to stick with it. She is in very good form. She just has to run her race and she will be thereabouts."
I always say, horses are not robots. I can't express empirically any reason behind the selection's flop at Sandown last time out, and what I get from this quote is that her trainer can't either. She is a horse I've always had time for and her form behind Raihana looks very solid in my opinion. York can sometimes suit a front runner, so I'm hoping Joe Fanning sends her on in familiar Mark Johnston style, I can see a close finish as Cecil's comes to challenge but Bikini Babe, but the selection might pull out a bit more. Horses have on days and off days, and I reckon 9/1 here is a big price if the selection is up for it today.
3.10 York Mulleinmileanhour 3pts win @ 9/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
Seven of the last ten horses to win this have had a previous run in the same season. The Newmarket race Mullionmileanhour was touched off in last time out often throws up the winner of this. The selection did not act well coming down the dip, and I think it cost him the race. York's flat track will suit much better today and I think 8/1 is big. Showcasing, Main Aim, and Starspangledbanner will probably come on for the run and they all look short to me. The draw is a question mark but John Best, one of the very few trainers whose opinion I respect from a betting perspective, had some interesting comments:
John Best, trainer: "His form with Equiano has been franked by the winner going in again at Newmarket. He is really well. I have always thought a lot of him. I don't know about his draw in 12, but I would rather be there than on the other side."
A big price at 8/1 in my opinion.
4.10 Fontwell Zero 5pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
A horse we had a large bet on last time out, at Chepstow on Grand National day last year, when he flopped. His previous win at Ascot seemed to suggest he could be a very high class hurdler, but injury has gotten in the way. I must say I do like backing Emma Lavelle's horses after a long break, she knows how to get them fit first time up. I think Zero will be ready for today's test, I reckon this is another excellent piece of placement, similar to Mick Channon yesterday, and he is far superior to these horses on the assumption, and it's a big one, that he retains his ability.
7.00 Bath Spinning Waters 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Check out Mark Winstanley tipping this one up on RPTV, funny stuff. Plenty of merit in it though. Richard Hughes takes the ride for in-form Eve Johnson-Houghton, and the selection comes from a family she knows well who improve with time and distance. Looks well handicapped and goes well fresh, won first time out last season. In a fairly average contest, this looks like the one horse who could be ten pound better than its current handicap mark.
Today, like Saturday, is one of those days where we need to accommodate a large number of selections with careful staking. Stick to the staking carefully.
2.40 York Bikini Babe 3pts win @ 9/1 (Bet 365, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
A hard race to decipher but the top two in the market do not look bombproof. Henry Cecil's Aviate has stamina questions to answer and Aidan O'Brien's Cabaret represents a stable whose horses have yet to hit form. Bikini Babe has had this race as her target for quite a while:
Mark Johnston, trainer: "The handicapper dropped her 2lb for her run at Sandown and based on that she has a bit to find. I could have found easier races like the Lingfield Oaks Trial and the Chester race, but the Musidora is the race we planned during the winter and we have decided to stick with it. She is in very good form. She just has to run her race and she will be thereabouts."
I always say, horses are not robots. I can't express empirically any reason behind the selection's flop at Sandown last time out, and what I get from this quote is that her trainer can't either. She is a horse I've always had time for and her form behind Raihana looks very solid in my opinion. York can sometimes suit a front runner, so I'm hoping Joe Fanning sends her on in familiar Mark Johnston style, I can see a close finish as Cecil's comes to challenge but Bikini Babe, but the selection might pull out a bit more. Horses have on days and off days, and I reckon 9/1 here is a big price if the selection is up for it today.
3.10 York Mulleinmileanhour 3pts win @ 9/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
Seven of the last ten horses to win this have had a previous run in the same season. The Newmarket race Mullionmileanhour was touched off in last time out often throws up the winner of this. The selection did not act well coming down the dip, and I think it cost him the race. York's flat track will suit much better today and I think 8/1 is big. Showcasing, Main Aim, and Starspangledbanner will probably come on for the run and they all look short to me. The draw is a question mark but John Best, one of the very few trainers whose opinion I respect from a betting perspective, had some interesting comments:
John Best, trainer: "His form with Equiano has been franked by the winner going in again at Newmarket. He is really well. I have always thought a lot of him. I don't know about his draw in 12, but I would rather be there than on the other side."
A big price at 8/1 in my opinion.
4.10 Fontwell Zero 5pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
A horse we had a large bet on last time out, at Chepstow on Grand National day last year, when he flopped. His previous win at Ascot seemed to suggest he could be a very high class hurdler, but injury has gotten in the way. I must say I do like backing Emma Lavelle's horses after a long break, she knows how to get them fit first time up. I think Zero will be ready for today's test, I reckon this is another excellent piece of placement, similar to Mick Channon yesterday, and he is far superior to these horses on the assumption, and it's a big one, that he retains his ability.
7.00 Bath Spinning Waters 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Check out Mark Winstanley tipping this one up on RPTV, funny stuff. Plenty of merit in it though. Richard Hughes takes the ride for in-form Eve Johnson-Houghton, and the selection comes from a family she knows well who improve with time and distance. Looks well handicapped and goes well fresh, won first time out last season. In a fairly average contest, this looks like the one horse who could be ten pound better than its current handicap mark.
Tuesday, May 11th
A fantastic day to remember yesterday. At 13/2 and 4/1, we took a 36.5/1 double off the bookmakers in our multiple bet. I hope I gave everyone fair warning by telling you all on Sunday to check the mail between 10am and 11am Monday morning. I also hope everyone is familiar enough with Betfair to lay off a potentially large winning bet. We went into the 5.30pm race with a 150/1 ish treble going onto a horse that was trading 1/2 on the exchanges. Everyone should have traded their bet to lock in profit, it's not something I advised but general good betting smarts should always apply. If anyone is unsure of how to work that out, drop me a line and I'll work through an example.
Barney Curley was planning yesterday's monster gamble for quite a while. We did not spot the fourth horse, which ran in the 7.30pm at Towcester and was 25/1 in the morning but went off 6/4. I have to say, most people didn't see what was coming at all so I'm chuffed we got the best prices on our accumulator and were part of something that will pretty much go down in racing history. I don't know another service who will be able to say that today.
On to today.
2.20 Yarmouth Djalalabad 1.5pts each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
As we noted last time, this mare has shown much more enthusiasm since switching to Jeff Pearce and today's flat track will probably suit her better than Brighton did last time out, when she ran pretty well. Favourite Fuzzy Cat looks short enough for a trainer who is 1-17 at the track in the past five years. Djalalabad should get a nice tow into the race from the likes of Come On Buckers and she may just cause a big upset.
4.50 Yarmouth Capable Guest 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) WON
An absolutely huge price. I'd be having seven or eight points win if it wasn't for the fact that this horse has basically seemed regressive in the past year or two. Capable Guest done us a big favour in the early days of our service, with a 25/1 win at Lingfield on his seasonal reappearance. The one thing that has remained constant throughout his career is that he always goes well on that first run of the year. He has posted ratings of 82,101,97,94,97,91 with three wins on seasonal debut, and today races off a mark of 64! Every year, Channon seems to run him into the ground late season, and his form ends up pretty poor. That really does not worry me today. If he has any of the old ability left he should beat these lesser animals, and to be honest I think this is a fabulous piece of placement by Mick Channon. Alan Munro, who has been riding winners for Channon and has a 12/97 12% strike rate at this track returning a +19.83 level stakes profit, takes the ride.
Barney Curley was planning yesterday's monster gamble for quite a while. We did not spot the fourth horse, which ran in the 7.30pm at Towcester and was 25/1 in the morning but went off 6/4. I have to say, most people didn't see what was coming at all so I'm chuffed we got the best prices on our accumulator and were part of something that will pretty much go down in racing history. I don't know another service who will be able to say that today.
On to today.
2.20 Yarmouth Djalalabad 1.5pts each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
As we noted last time, this mare has shown much more enthusiasm since switching to Jeff Pearce and today's flat track will probably suit her better than Brighton did last time out, when she ran pretty well. Favourite Fuzzy Cat looks short enough for a trainer who is 1-17 at the track in the past five years. Djalalabad should get a nice tow into the race from the likes of Come On Buckers and she may just cause a big upset.
4.50 Yarmouth Capable Guest 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) WON
An absolutely huge price. I'd be having seven or eight points win if it wasn't for the fact that this horse has basically seemed regressive in the past year or two. Capable Guest done us a big favour in the early days of our service, with a 25/1 win at Lingfield on his seasonal reappearance. The one thing that has remained constant throughout his career is that he always goes well on that first run of the year. He has posted ratings of 82,101,97,94,97,91 with three wins on seasonal debut, and today races off a mark of 64! Every year, Channon seems to run him into the ground late season, and his form ends up pretty poor. That really does not worry me today. If he has any of the old ability left he should beat these lesser animals, and to be honest I think this is a fabulous piece of placement by Mick Channon. Alan Munro, who has been riding winners for Channon and has a 12/97 12% strike rate at this track returning a +19.83 level stakes profit, takes the ride.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Monday May 10th
A fine weekend which might have been ever better, King Raven was hammered in the betting from our 7/1 to 7/2, but despite looking the winner and trading 1.24 in running, My Matilda outstayed him in the end for another gritty success. She is developing into a progressive stayer over extreme trips.
An unsusual piece of advice today, in that we are recommending a multiple bet.
I've had my eye on all Barney Curley's entries since April 2009, when I noticed on Easter Monday that he had entered five horses to race, which is an unusual number for him to run in a day. I think he had two decent priced winners (big early prices) and a third not beaten that far in second. It dawned on me that he had tried to land a big coup with multiple horses and to some extent he did succeed, there were minor media reports of it the day after. I think part of Curley's idea was that, with the Irish National and loads of racing on that day, bookmakers interest would be deflected away from his coup. It worked for the most part.
Fast forward a year and Barney tried the same thing on the same day. However, bog like ground at Warwick lead to that meeting being called off, I think one or two of his runners were at that meeting, or the second horse may have been declared a non-runner, off the top of my head. In other words, any grand plans of a major coup were scuppered by the weather, although he did have one winner that day.
Clearly, the notion of landing a big coup with multiple horses on the one day for a large payout is something that Curley has had on his mind for a while, and I think today is the day.
He runs three horses. The first two have the profile of typical Curley gambles and run in the two amateur rider races at Wolves. An odd betting medium with which to land a gamble, you might think. But Barney has quite an edge here. He has booked Tom Queally's younger brother Declan to ride. Declan can claim 5lbs, but he has bundles of experience in point to points, bumpers, and over hurdles and fences. He won a bumper on a 25/1 shot the other day and has won in three chases. Curley gave him a spin around Wolves a couple of weeks ago on Sir Mozart, and it is plain to see he is better than almost every other amateur - he looks to be in the class of Simon Walker, top amateur, and he gets to claim 5lb. That's Barney's first edge, a jockey who will outride all but one of the opposition.
Both horses have come right down the weights, are very, very well handicapped on their best form, and were given a spin jumping on the same day a couple of months ago, presumably to give them an away day and help get them fit. This whole thing looks like a very well plotted gamble.
Declan's brother Tom Queally rides Agapanthus at Brighton. He is one of the horses who won on Easter Monday '09, posting an RPR of 77 off a rating of 63 that day. Today he runs in a weak enough contest off 65.
Barney is impossible to predict at times. However, what we do know is that he funds his whole operation by through his gambling - nobody knows how to land a punt better. It is possible we have caught him on the wrong day but I'm willing to take a small risk for a large outlay. American speed figure guru Andrew Beyer often says that one or two very large wins a year can mean the difference between profit and loss in that year. I definitely agree with him, and I often have a multiple bet if I fancy a few horses on one particular day. Some of my best wins have come from this type of bet. So today, I'm advising an each-way treble and doubles on Barney's three runners. Make absolutely sure that your bookmaker guarantees prices in multiple bets. I know Paddy Power, Stan James and Bet 365 do, I'm not sure about the rest but be absolutely sure to ask. I'm happy to lose a small amount on this bet, but I think it's likely that Curley's runners will shorten in price, perhaps dramatically, and go close to winning at the very least.
I wouldn't go around telling too many friends about this bet, if there is an unusual amount of public money pushing the prices down on these, this is one stable who will not think twice about pulling their horses out, or similar.
Recommendation:
Total of 4pts outlay on: 3 x doubles, 1 x each-way treble...
4.10 Brighton Agapanthus @ 13/2 WON @ 2/1f
5.00 Wolves Savaronola @ 4/1 WON @ 11/10f 36/1 double landed!!!
5.30 Wolves Sommersturn @ 7/2 -- these best prices guaranteed with Bet365
- - make sure to bet with a bookmaker who guarantees prices in multiple bets!!!
An unsusual piece of advice today, in that we are recommending a multiple bet.
I've had my eye on all Barney Curley's entries since April 2009, when I noticed on Easter Monday that he had entered five horses to race, which is an unusual number for him to run in a day. I think he had two decent priced winners (big early prices) and a third not beaten that far in second. It dawned on me that he had tried to land a big coup with multiple horses and to some extent he did succeed, there were minor media reports of it the day after. I think part of Curley's idea was that, with the Irish National and loads of racing on that day, bookmakers interest would be deflected away from his coup. It worked for the most part.
Fast forward a year and Barney tried the same thing on the same day. However, bog like ground at Warwick lead to that meeting being called off, I think one or two of his runners were at that meeting, or the second horse may have been declared a non-runner, off the top of my head. In other words, any grand plans of a major coup were scuppered by the weather, although he did have one winner that day.
Clearly, the notion of landing a big coup with multiple horses on the one day for a large payout is something that Curley has had on his mind for a while, and I think today is the day.
He runs three horses. The first two have the profile of typical Curley gambles and run in the two amateur rider races at Wolves. An odd betting medium with which to land a gamble, you might think. But Barney has quite an edge here. He has booked Tom Queally's younger brother Declan to ride. Declan can claim 5lbs, but he has bundles of experience in point to points, bumpers, and over hurdles and fences. He won a bumper on a 25/1 shot the other day and has won in three chases. Curley gave him a spin around Wolves a couple of weeks ago on Sir Mozart, and it is plain to see he is better than almost every other amateur - he looks to be in the class of Simon Walker, top amateur, and he gets to claim 5lb. That's Barney's first edge, a jockey who will outride all but one of the opposition.
Both horses have come right down the weights, are very, very well handicapped on their best form, and were given a spin jumping on the same day a couple of months ago, presumably to give them an away day and help get them fit. This whole thing looks like a very well plotted gamble.
Declan's brother Tom Queally rides Agapanthus at Brighton. He is one of the horses who won on Easter Monday '09, posting an RPR of 77 off a rating of 63 that day. Today he runs in a weak enough contest off 65.
Barney is impossible to predict at times. However, what we do know is that he funds his whole operation by through his gambling - nobody knows how to land a punt better. It is possible we have caught him on the wrong day but I'm willing to take a small risk for a large outlay. American speed figure guru Andrew Beyer often says that one or two very large wins a year can mean the difference between profit and loss in that year. I definitely agree with him, and I often have a multiple bet if I fancy a few horses on one particular day. Some of my best wins have come from this type of bet. So today, I'm advising an each-way treble and doubles on Barney's three runners. Make absolutely sure that your bookmaker guarantees prices in multiple bets. I know Paddy Power, Stan James and Bet 365 do, I'm not sure about the rest but be absolutely sure to ask. I'm happy to lose a small amount on this bet, but I think it's likely that Curley's runners will shorten in price, perhaps dramatically, and go close to winning at the very least.
I wouldn't go around telling too many friends about this bet, if there is an unusual amount of public money pushing the prices down on these, this is one stable who will not think twice about pulling their horses out, or similar.
Recommendation:
Total of 4pts outlay on: 3 x doubles, 1 x each-way treble...
4.10 Brighton Agapanthus @ 13/2 WON @ 2/1f
5.00 Wolves Savaronola @ 4/1 WON @ 11/10f 36/1 double landed!!!
5.30 Wolves Sommersturn @ 7/2 -- these best prices guaranteed with Bet365
- - make sure to bet with a bookmaker who guarantees prices in multiple bets!!!
Sunday May 9th
We made over 40pts profit yesterday with Bullet Train winning easily at 11/4 to land our biggest bet, and Come And Go looked a steal at our early 12/1 when he also ran out a comfortable winner. Shayala was a non runner.
I really hope David Elsworth supplements Myplacelater for the Oaks now that Bullet Train has further franked her form. I've advised clients to take 100/1+ on Betfair, but if you can get anything around 50/1 now that's huge. Shop around and you should definitely find a bookmaker willing to give you 33/1 or 40/1 ante post rules. From what I'm told at this stage she is only a bit better than 50-50 to be suplemented but we'll have a great bet on our hands if she is - I could see her being sent off 14/1 or even less.
A rare Sunday bet, a small investment of less than 5% of yesterday's profits.
3.10 Plumpton King Raven 2pts win @ 7/1 (Coral, guaranteed)
We backed 14/1 My Matilda last time out pointing out that she is by Silver Patriarch and is bred to appreciate bog-like conditions and a real stamina test. King Raven, however, has some good old form on better ground and is beginning to look well handicapped. He put in a very game front running performance against My Matilda last time out and I think he probably only went down in second because of the heavy ground. I have absolutely no idea why Geography is favourite here other than his connections and the "1" beside his name, I can't se how he is a 2/1 shot. My Matilda is next best in a weak contest but if King Raven turns up in the same form he can reverse the form on better ground and on better terms weights wise. Plumpton also suits front runners and I'm hoping the promising Danny Cook sends him on from the get go and hangs tough down the home straight to land the spoils.
Keep an eye out between 10am and 11am tomorrow. We're not outlaying a huge amount but it could be a very big day for us - I'll explain more in my e-mail!
I really hope David Elsworth supplements Myplacelater for the Oaks now that Bullet Train has further franked her form. I've advised clients to take 100/1+ on Betfair, but if you can get anything around 50/1 now that's huge. Shop around and you should definitely find a bookmaker willing to give you 33/1 or 40/1 ante post rules. From what I'm told at this stage she is only a bit better than 50-50 to be suplemented but we'll have a great bet on our hands if she is - I could see her being sent off 14/1 or even less.
A rare Sunday bet, a small investment of less than 5% of yesterday's profits.
3.10 Plumpton King Raven 2pts win @ 7/1 (Coral, guaranteed)
We backed 14/1 My Matilda last time out pointing out that she is by Silver Patriarch and is bred to appreciate bog-like conditions and a real stamina test. King Raven, however, has some good old form on better ground and is beginning to look well handicapped. He put in a very game front running performance against My Matilda last time out and I think he probably only went down in second because of the heavy ground. I have absolutely no idea why Geography is favourite here other than his connections and the "1" beside his name, I can't se how he is a 2/1 shot. My Matilda is next best in a weak contest but if King Raven turns up in the same form he can reverse the form on better ground and on better terms weights wise. Plumpton also suits front runners and I'm hoping the promising Danny Cook sends him on from the get go and hangs tough down the home straight to land the spoils.
Keep an eye out between 10am and 11am tomorrow. We're not outlaying a huge amount but it could be a very big day for us - I'll explain more in my e-mail!
Saturday May 8th
The biggest question I was faced with this morning was how to accommodate five selections in the one day, all of which really represent value. It is important that everyone sticks to the staking plans advised today because our outlay of sixteen points is on the large side for us - our average is 11pts. One winner puts us ahead for the day or Cpatain Macarry placing puts us around level - I'm hoping for a return on at least two of the selections. I've played win only apart from the 66/1 shot and if a few of you want to trade some of these off at just over 1/3 (I advise 1.36 in running, trade or perhaps save your stake), that might be a strategy that pays off.
3.10 Lingfield - Bullet Train 5pts win @ 11/4 (Generally, get guaranteed) WON
Proven form behind Myplacelater who franked it during the week despite not winning. Carried a lot of condition that day and the step up in trip and 100% fitness should see this stoutly bred Henry Cecil inmate improve enough to win here. Desert Myth is only a maiden winner and I'm not sure what he really achieved on debut, while the O'Brien pair don't look world beaters. The Cecil team target this contest and I think they have a great chance with Bullet Train who trades at a very fair 11/4 - I think he may go off shorter.
3.25 Ascot - The Victoria Cup - Captain Macarry 1pt each-way @ 66/1 (Stan James only - pays 5 places and price guaranteed)
As good a 66/1 shot as you're going to get, and why not back him each-way at these odds. Acquitted himself well in a very valuable handicap over course and distance last Autumn, and given that he was quite poorly drawn that day, he did well to go down by only 4 1/2 lengths. The Ascot going stick readings suggest that the centre of the track is the place to be today and he is drawn nicely in stall 12. He also fits the weight, ratings and age trends quite well. He made his season debut and debut for John Quinn in the Spring Cup at Donny but soft ground does not suit him and he didn't really show. It will serve to put a fitness edge on him, though. I find it very interesting that the Quinn stable paid 45,000stg for this horse from Bryan Smart's stable, the must reckon there is improvement to come off his mark of 89 and a look at some of his best runs on the all weather suggests the horse has the ability to run to a mark of around 97 on his best days. If Quinn can elicit a pound or two more improvement from that, say an RPR of 99, it leaves him around 10lb better than his current mark and puts him bang in there with a shout of winning this. The horse has showed all his best turf form on good to firm ground, and his obviously acts at Ascot. He is also a seven furlong specialist, and at 66/1 he looks a huge price and a big value each-way chance to run in the first five today.
4.55 Lingfield San Cassiano 3pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Represents the Beckett stable who remain in excellent form. San Cassiano was well backed on debut last year when winning what turned out to be a decent maiden quite comfortably, Beckett's juvenile's generally come on for their first run so I'm inclined to mark up that performance on that basis. His second run when third to Mon Cadeaux has worked out really well, and you can see he is staying on very strongly in the last 50yds and to be honest looks to be crying out for a seventh furlong. He gets that seven furlong trip today and Jim Crowley takes the ride. He is a big beast of a horse, so I'm quite happy that he carries top weight against inferior animals. This race does contain a few lurkers but apart from that there is not much strength in depth, and I'm not afraid of the Jarvis horse on previous form.
5.15 Nottingham Shayla 4pts win @ 11/2 (Paddy Power, Totesport, guaranteed) NON RUNNER
Represents the Alan Swinbank stable whose last runners have finished 1,2,2,1,1,7. Shayla was given a fairly easy time of it last time out at Catterick over seven furlongs, her jockey handled her considerately buried in the pack, before she stayed on near the finish. Indeed, she was eased around 100yds from home and I'm quite sure connections were aware that she qualified for a handicap mark after that run. She steps up one furlong in trip today, and she looks to be open to plenty improvement off a mark of 66. This contest looks winnable, and even though the form of her last run is not working out brilliantly, I fancy her to find enough here to land the spoils.
7.35 Thirsk Come And Go 3pts win @ 12/1 (Paddy Power, guaranteed) WON
Another from the Swinbank stable. Come And Go ran in a race last time where the first nine horses home were rater 80+, the selection being the lowest rated of those, off a mark of 76. Again, he was buried right out the back, have a look at the archive video. He starts to make a move with a couple of furlongs left but, rather than take a gap which would have left him in the clear on the wide outside, his jockey elects to send him to the inside where he finds a couple of horses in front of him to prevent him running on. I'm no conspiracy theorist, but I'll let you judge for yourself as to whether that was by accident or design. He finished really well and full of running, and I'm quite surprised the handicapper has dropped him a pound in the handicap to a mark of 75. Which, incidentally, entitles him to drop in class to 0-75 company, as he does today. Take a look at the favourite, French Art. The first 9 home in the race he won last time out were all rated 60-70, including Hit's Only Jude who reopposes. Come And Go only has to give him 2lb today. I think 12/1 is massive value and if we have a winner or two in the bag by the time this race goes off, I might even raise my stake.
3.10 Lingfield - Bullet Train 5pts win @ 11/4 (Generally, get guaranteed) WON
Proven form behind Myplacelater who franked it during the week despite not winning. Carried a lot of condition that day and the step up in trip and 100% fitness should see this stoutly bred Henry Cecil inmate improve enough to win here. Desert Myth is only a maiden winner and I'm not sure what he really achieved on debut, while the O'Brien pair don't look world beaters. The Cecil team target this contest and I think they have a great chance with Bullet Train who trades at a very fair 11/4 - I think he may go off shorter.
3.25 Ascot - The Victoria Cup - Captain Macarry 1pt each-way @ 66/1 (Stan James only - pays 5 places and price guaranteed)
As good a 66/1 shot as you're going to get, and why not back him each-way at these odds. Acquitted himself well in a very valuable handicap over course and distance last Autumn, and given that he was quite poorly drawn that day, he did well to go down by only 4 1/2 lengths. The Ascot going stick readings suggest that the centre of the track is the place to be today and he is drawn nicely in stall 12. He also fits the weight, ratings and age trends quite well. He made his season debut and debut for John Quinn in the Spring Cup at Donny but soft ground does not suit him and he didn't really show. It will serve to put a fitness edge on him, though. I find it very interesting that the Quinn stable paid 45,000stg for this horse from Bryan Smart's stable, the must reckon there is improvement to come off his mark of 89 and a look at some of his best runs on the all weather suggests the horse has the ability to run to a mark of around 97 on his best days. If Quinn can elicit a pound or two more improvement from that, say an RPR of 99, it leaves him around 10lb better than his current mark and puts him bang in there with a shout of winning this. The horse has showed all his best turf form on good to firm ground, and his obviously acts at Ascot. He is also a seven furlong specialist, and at 66/1 he looks a huge price and a big value each-way chance to run in the first five today.
4.55 Lingfield San Cassiano 3pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Represents the Beckett stable who remain in excellent form. San Cassiano was well backed on debut last year when winning what turned out to be a decent maiden quite comfortably, Beckett's juvenile's generally come on for their first run so I'm inclined to mark up that performance on that basis. His second run when third to Mon Cadeaux has worked out really well, and you can see he is staying on very strongly in the last 50yds and to be honest looks to be crying out for a seventh furlong. He gets that seven furlong trip today and Jim Crowley takes the ride. He is a big beast of a horse, so I'm quite happy that he carries top weight against inferior animals. This race does contain a few lurkers but apart from that there is not much strength in depth, and I'm not afraid of the Jarvis horse on previous form.
5.15 Nottingham Shayla 4pts win @ 11/2 (Paddy Power, Totesport, guaranteed) NON RUNNER
Represents the Alan Swinbank stable whose last runners have finished 1,2,2,1,1,7. Shayla was given a fairly easy time of it last time out at Catterick over seven furlongs, her jockey handled her considerately buried in the pack, before she stayed on near the finish. Indeed, she was eased around 100yds from home and I'm quite sure connections were aware that she qualified for a handicap mark after that run. She steps up one furlong in trip today, and she looks to be open to plenty improvement off a mark of 66. This contest looks winnable, and even though the form of her last run is not working out brilliantly, I fancy her to find enough here to land the spoils.
7.35 Thirsk Come And Go 3pts win @ 12/1 (Paddy Power, guaranteed) WON
Another from the Swinbank stable. Come And Go ran in a race last time where the first nine horses home were rater 80+, the selection being the lowest rated of those, off a mark of 76. Again, he was buried right out the back, have a look at the archive video. He starts to make a move with a couple of furlongs left but, rather than take a gap which would have left him in the clear on the wide outside, his jockey elects to send him to the inside where he finds a couple of horses in front of him to prevent him running on. I'm no conspiracy theorist, but I'll let you judge for yourself as to whether that was by accident or design. He finished really well and full of running, and I'm quite surprised the handicapper has dropped him a pound in the handicap to a mark of 75. Which, incidentally, entitles him to drop in class to 0-75 company, as he does today. Take a look at the favourite, French Art. The first 9 home in the race he won last time out were all rated 60-70, including Hit's Only Jude who reopposes. Come And Go only has to give him 2lb today. I think 12/1 is massive value and if we have a winner or two in the bag by the time this race goes off, I might even raise my stake.
Friday May 8th
Small profits yesterday but we hit the crossbar yet again.
2.55 Nottingham Infanta 2pts each-way @ 11/2 (Generally, get guaranteed!)
Copper Penny is entitled to come on for her seasonal debut, but does anyone remember the race she came second in at Windsor? It was the race won by Circus Girl, the Beckett horse I thought was fairly moderate, and also the race in which we backed Starclass only for her to be withdrawn. Basically, I don't think she achieved that much in winning that race, it wasn't all that strong a contest. This race is usually won by an OR80+ type, and I'm not sure Copper Penny is all that good - she might touch on OR80 at some stage but looks beatable to me here.
The Gosden newcomer has attracted cash this morning but his first time out horses are not usually subjected to a hard race, and if she wins she is sure to be quite talented indeed. I am happy to oppose.
Mahmood Al Zarooni has made a good start as a trainer for Godolphin. He has had a couple win, and a couple assert themselves well in good races. His horses are still being underestimated by the market, which is what I always look for. Infanta made her debut at Musselburgh last backed but was very green to post and in the race. She will have matured during the winter and hopefully will put in a more professional performance today if so. What interested me most is the video of the Musselburgh race. She is all over the shop on the softish ground and also doesn't seem to know what is required of her. However, right in the last 200yds she seems to realise what the game is all about and starts to move more fluently, putting her mind to it and gaining on the eventual second. She did move nicely and it was a tell tale sign for me that she has plenty more ability than she has shown thus far. At 11/2, she looks an excellent bet to run into a place at least today and I expect her to win if she is ready to go, as most of the Al Zarooni horses have been. The fact that Ahmed Ajtebi takes off a 3lb claim is a ridiculous bonus.
2.55 Nottingham Infanta 2pts each-way @ 11/2 (Generally, get guaranteed!)
Copper Penny is entitled to come on for her seasonal debut, but does anyone remember the race she came second in at Windsor? It was the race won by Circus Girl, the Beckett horse I thought was fairly moderate, and also the race in which we backed Starclass only for her to be withdrawn. Basically, I don't think she achieved that much in winning that race, it wasn't all that strong a contest. This race is usually won by an OR80+ type, and I'm not sure Copper Penny is all that good - she might touch on OR80 at some stage but looks beatable to me here.
The Gosden newcomer has attracted cash this morning but his first time out horses are not usually subjected to a hard race, and if she wins she is sure to be quite talented indeed. I am happy to oppose.
Mahmood Al Zarooni has made a good start as a trainer for Godolphin. He has had a couple win, and a couple assert themselves well in good races. His horses are still being underestimated by the market, which is what I always look for. Infanta made her debut at Musselburgh last backed but was very green to post and in the race. She will have matured during the winter and hopefully will put in a more professional performance today if so. What interested me most is the video of the Musselburgh race. She is all over the shop on the softish ground and also doesn't seem to know what is required of her. However, right in the last 200yds she seems to realise what the game is all about and starts to move more fluently, putting her mind to it and gaining on the eventual second. She did move nicely and it was a tell tale sign for me that she has plenty more ability than she has shown thus far. At 11/2, she looks an excellent bet to run into a place at least today and I expect her to win if she is ready to go, as most of the Al Zarooni horses have been. The fact that Ahmed Ajtebi takes off a 3lb claim is a ridiculous bonus.
Thursday May 6th
Myplacelater was done by the slow pace yesterday and I really hope she is supplemented for the Oaks.
One bet today.
5.20 Goodwood Forest Crown 3pts each-way @ 9/1 (Coral, guaranteed) each-way 2nd @ 12/1
Owes us nothing after landing a maximum bet for us at 7/1 last time out. She won really impressively that day, though, and I thought at the time the handicapper was quite fair with a rating of 80. She is bred to get a mile as a three year old and her dam, Weiner Wald has produced high class horses such as Crowded House and On Reflection. The opposition look decent but I can't see why Forest Crown is as big as 9/1 - we made her an 11/2 / 6/1 shot this morning. There are also question marks about stable form for some of these, however Ralph Beckett's string are in excellent form, his three year olds in particular. I'll be having a decent each-way bet.
One bet today.
5.20 Goodwood Forest Crown 3pts each-way @ 9/1 (Coral, guaranteed) each-way 2nd @ 12/1
Owes us nothing after landing a maximum bet for us at 7/1 last time out. She won really impressively that day, though, and I thought at the time the handicapper was quite fair with a rating of 80. She is bred to get a mile as a three year old and her dam, Weiner Wald has produced high class horses such as Crowded House and On Reflection. The opposition look decent but I can't see why Forest Crown is as big as 9/1 - we made her an 11/2 / 6/1 shot this morning. There are also question marks about stable form for some of these, however Ralph Beckett's string are in excellent form, his three year olds in particular. I'll be having a decent each-way bet.
Wednesday May 5th
Again yesterday both selections ran really well and outperformed the prices we got them at, but did not put hard cash in our pockets. From time to time I utter the old phrase, "losing runs are a part of value betting, and have to be expected" but I have to say I do feel yer pain as paying clients. The last couple of weeks have been especially tough on us and we've had nothing in the way of a lucky break. We've backed a number of horses who I have no doubt will win one or more races this year - the likes of yesterday's second Emerald Glade, Poppets Lovein, Mac's Power, Parc Des Princes, even the withdrawn pair Starclass and Tappanappa... but they just aren't putting their heads in front for us at the minute. Most of my income comes from betting, so I'm as brassed off as you lot must be. I'm casting my mind also back to Scamperdale (we got 30/1, traded long odds on) and Aultcharn (9/1, traded long odds on), I'd be the first to hold my hand up if the selections were piss poor, but the reality is that they are as well thought out as ever, all represent value in my eyes, but they're not winning. I just try to work twice as hard in these situations, rather than reacting in an emotional way.
For the record Emerald Glade was beaten into second yesterday, a stewards was called but we were never likely to get the race. A little bit of luck like that can make all the difference with a 12/1 shot. Jamie Spencer was awful on Poppets Lovein in my opinion, he gets bashed a lot but to be fair, he seems extremely one dimensional. Why did he hold up Wigmore Hall in a 5 runner race run at a crawl at the weekend? I've often seen Fallon get a horse into a midfield position when that happens and he is on the best horse, and win the race narrowly. Spencer sat there like a divvy and got done on the line by the front runner. Last night, he held the selection, who had bundles of tactical speed, up in rear in a seven runner race on a speed favouring track. She made loads of ground but was basically given too much to do. Watch the replay - had he sat in second or third last position, instead of slightly detatched, he would probably have won. The sad truth for him is that he was outridden by a very inexperienced 7lb claimer who kept it simple. Surely if he ever wants to challenge for the championship again, he will have to have a hard look at his tactics?
On to today.
2.15 Chester Myplacelater 6pts win @ 3/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes, Boylesports, guaranteed)
This horse has by far and away the best form in this field. She beat a decent field of colts last time out at Newbury in a time two seconds faster than co-favourite Gertrude Bell won the maiden over the same distance on the same card. The mark of a really good filly is her ability up against the colts, and it's no coincidence that Light Shift (2007, went on to win the Oaks) and High Heeled (2009, went on to win the Oaks) have won this race in the past few years. Myplacelater won going away at the line, and confirmed herself a high class filly in the process. The only horse to race since, Gardening Leave, was the horse who beat the Spencer ridden Wigmore Hall at the weekend. He finished 5th behind the selection, but won at the weekend posting an RPR of 104 in the process. The only previous time she ran over ten furlongs, she was beaten a shortening short head by the Hannon-trained Middle Club. He has since finished second in a Group 3, and is now rated 108. The third posted an RPR of 94 when fifth in a very good Newmarket contest at the weekend. The fourth has since been beaten on the nod in a German listed race, and run fifth in the German 1,000 Guineas. Myplacelater is bred to appreciate middle distances, and on the evidence of her Newbury run, eleven furlongs should only improve her. The opposition today really do not look up to much - she has beaten better colts already this season. If she turns up in the same form today, she should really win this barring one of the others finding massive improvement from nowhere. The O'Brien horse is 4/1 but she has done absolutely nothing, Gosden's has two seconds to make up on the clock. 3/1 looks too big. If she is impressive in winning today, she will shorten for the Oaks even though she is not entered. Elsworth would probably supplement her, and the 120/1 available on Betfair might look big in time.
4.45 Southwell Dubai Phantom 3pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
David Simcock is making a habit of improving his three year olds as they step up in trip, and his Dubai Phantom looks a case in point in the eleven furlong contest at Southwell today. His third run in a maiden was very promising, he came around the houses and galloped on to the line under fairly tender handling. I'm not sure the jockey was giving him the hardest cracks with the whip either - have a look at the replay, it just doesn't look like there's a hell of a lot of contact being made! The Gosden second favourite won a very poor maiden here, and Hughie Morrison's On Khee is not guaranteed to enjoy the surface. The form of her Folkstone win is also working out very poorly. Dubai Phantom looks to me like he'll love galloping away on this fibresand, his bred to be a lot better than a 66 rated handicapper, and he should improve as he goes up in trip. Martin Lane is good value for his 3lb claim and if he's in there battling away at the top of the straight, I think he'll keep rolling right until the line and might cause a minor upset.
For the record Emerald Glade was beaten into second yesterday, a stewards was called but we were never likely to get the race. A little bit of luck like that can make all the difference with a 12/1 shot. Jamie Spencer was awful on Poppets Lovein in my opinion, he gets bashed a lot but to be fair, he seems extremely one dimensional. Why did he hold up Wigmore Hall in a 5 runner race run at a crawl at the weekend? I've often seen Fallon get a horse into a midfield position when that happens and he is on the best horse, and win the race narrowly. Spencer sat there like a divvy and got done on the line by the front runner. Last night, he held the selection, who had bundles of tactical speed, up in rear in a seven runner race on a speed favouring track. She made loads of ground but was basically given too much to do. Watch the replay - had he sat in second or third last position, instead of slightly detatched, he would probably have won. The sad truth for him is that he was outridden by a very inexperienced 7lb claimer who kept it simple. Surely if he ever wants to challenge for the championship again, he will have to have a hard look at his tactics?
On to today.
2.15 Chester Myplacelater 6pts win @ 3/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes, Boylesports, guaranteed)
This horse has by far and away the best form in this field. She beat a decent field of colts last time out at Newbury in a time two seconds faster than co-favourite Gertrude Bell won the maiden over the same distance on the same card. The mark of a really good filly is her ability up against the colts, and it's no coincidence that Light Shift (2007, went on to win the Oaks) and High Heeled (2009, went on to win the Oaks) have won this race in the past few years. Myplacelater won going away at the line, and confirmed herself a high class filly in the process. The only horse to race since, Gardening Leave, was the horse who beat the Spencer ridden Wigmore Hall at the weekend. He finished 5th behind the selection, but won at the weekend posting an RPR of 104 in the process. The only previous time she ran over ten furlongs, she was beaten a shortening short head by the Hannon-trained Middle Club. He has since finished second in a Group 3, and is now rated 108. The third posted an RPR of 94 when fifth in a very good Newmarket contest at the weekend. The fourth has since been beaten on the nod in a German listed race, and run fifth in the German 1,000 Guineas. Myplacelater is bred to appreciate middle distances, and on the evidence of her Newbury run, eleven furlongs should only improve her. The opposition today really do not look up to much - she has beaten better colts already this season. If she turns up in the same form today, she should really win this barring one of the others finding massive improvement from nowhere. The O'Brien horse is 4/1 but she has done absolutely nothing, Gosden's has two seconds to make up on the clock. 3/1 looks too big. If she is impressive in winning today, she will shorten for the Oaks even though she is not entered. Elsworth would probably supplement her, and the 120/1 available on Betfair might look big in time.
4.45 Southwell Dubai Phantom 3pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
David Simcock is making a habit of improving his three year olds as they step up in trip, and his Dubai Phantom looks a case in point in the eleven furlong contest at Southwell today. His third run in a maiden was very promising, he came around the houses and galloped on to the line under fairly tender handling. I'm not sure the jockey was giving him the hardest cracks with the whip either - have a look at the replay, it just doesn't look like there's a hell of a lot of contact being made! The Gosden second favourite won a very poor maiden here, and Hughie Morrison's On Khee is not guaranteed to enjoy the surface. The form of her Folkstone win is also working out very poorly. Dubai Phantom looks to me like he'll love galloping away on this fibresand, his bred to be a lot better than a 66 rated handicapper, and he should improve as he goes up in trip. Martin Lane is good value for his 3lb claim and if he's in there battling away at the top of the straight, I think he'll keep rolling right until the line and might cause a minor upset.
Tuesday May 4th
Two bets today.
4.10 Newcastle Emerald Glade 2pts win @ 8/1 (Boylesports guaranteed, Sporting Bet)
Stable in fine form and Newcastle truly is Easterby country. This three year old caught the eye running on well in a Beverley maiden last year, and I had chalked her down as one to follow. That race has worked out particularly well. The second is now rated 82 after an impressive win, and the third has posted two mid-80's RPR's and run well in a listed race won by Timepiece. The seventh is now rated 85 and has won twice. Emerald Glade looked to be crying out for an extra furlong during that race and as a daughter of Azamour, she should improve as a three year old over further. In a poor race, she looks good value at 8/1.
7.00 Catterick Poppets Lovein 5pts win @ 11/2 (Boylesports guaranteed, Skybet)
Half sister to the monstrous Hungarian sprinter Overdose, and Poppets Lovein has inherited some of her brothers talent and speed. The way she won over todays trip at Newcastle last year really caught the eye, the race worked out well and she really blew them away having travelled extremely easily into the contest. She has had excuses the last twice and goes well fresh so the absence does not concern me. I have a strong feeling she is still well handicapped and will win today unless her occasionally suspect temremant gets the better of her. Jamie Spencer ride and is 3/3 100% for the stable this season. The icing on the cake are the trainer's comments in the Racing Post today:
Andrew Haynes, trainer: “I can’t tell you anything or I’d have to kill you. A really nice filly. Hoping for firm ground. We’ve had three from three wins with Jamie Spencer already and we will be making the trip with hopes of someprize money.”
I'm on at 11/2!!!
4.10 Newcastle Emerald Glade 2pts win @ 8/1 (Boylesports guaranteed, Sporting Bet)
Stable in fine form and Newcastle truly is Easterby country. This three year old caught the eye running on well in a Beverley maiden last year, and I had chalked her down as one to follow. That race has worked out particularly well. The second is now rated 82 after an impressive win, and the third has posted two mid-80's RPR's and run well in a listed race won by Timepiece. The seventh is now rated 85 and has won twice. Emerald Glade looked to be crying out for an extra furlong during that race and as a daughter of Azamour, she should improve as a three year old over further. In a poor race, she looks good value at 8/1.
7.00 Catterick Poppets Lovein 5pts win @ 11/2 (Boylesports guaranteed, Skybet)
Half sister to the monstrous Hungarian sprinter Overdose, and Poppets Lovein has inherited some of her brothers talent and speed. The way she won over todays trip at Newcastle last year really caught the eye, the race worked out well and she really blew them away having travelled extremely easily into the contest. She has had excuses the last twice and goes well fresh so the absence does not concern me. I have a strong feeling she is still well handicapped and will win today unless her occasionally suspect temremant gets the better of her. Jamie Spencer ride and is 3/3 100% for the stable this season. The icing on the cake are the trainer's comments in the Racing Post today:
Andrew Haynes, trainer: “I can’t tell you anything or I’d have to kill you. A really nice filly. Hoping for firm ground. We’ve had three from three wins with Jamie Spencer already and we will be making the trip with hopes of someprize money.”
I'm on at 11/2!!!
Monday May 3rd
Our bet on Blue Maiden yesterday was pretty much ruined by the ground. There was no way for anyone to know that the stands rail would be so biased yesterday, and it turned the 1,000 Guineas into a bit of a joke. Jamie Spencer was furthest to the far rail on Blue Maiden and we had no chance at all.
Today is an extremely interesting day and we're confident of getting back on track. Some of our luck lately has been appalling and we're overdue a big day.
4.00 Kempton Mac's Power 2.5pts each-way @ 14/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed - Early Price Advised to all clients 7.00am)
Some poor lad or lass at Bet 365 was obviously let loose with a few sheets of paper and a calculator for the first time last night on the graveyard shift, when the regular crew were on the piss for the bank holiday weekend. Whoever it was will get a bollicking off a hungover head odds compiler today whether Mac's Power wins or loses. The 14/1 they chalked up about this fella last night, which was available until around 9am, was an absolute abomination of a rick, as I pointed out in our price alert e-mail.
Mac's Power is a very nicely bred, talented son of Exceed and Excel who has extensive strong Kempton form and closed out his 2009 firmly on the up and up with a fourth to the easy Lincoln winner Penitent, who dead heated with Stoic in that contest, a seven runner race not run to suit Mac's Power. The form of that contest is working out really well, with the Lincoln winner and group class Penitent the obvious starting point. The other dead-heater Stoic has since repeated his RPR of that night in a hot Meydan handicap, 103. Musleh, the third, has been disappointing but the fifth is now rated 93 after a flat win and won a couple of good hurdle races. Elliptical finished sixth and was only beaten a head by Tartan Gigha in an ultra competitive Newmarket handicap on Saturday. This and the fact that the pace was moderate leads me to believe Mac's Power is well handicapped with his mark of 85.
Then there's the Fanshawe factor. James Fanshawe has been in cracking form and as you all know is a trainer I have a lot of time for. No disrespect to P.J. O'Gorman, but I would be surprised if Fanshawe could not improve this horse still further. I'm not sure how he picked the horse up or the circumstances behind the transfer, but he does not tend to waste his time with bad horses. Mac's Power has a very fast cruising speed and this race has some pace to it, if Pat Cosgrave can get him settled in a mid to rear position with a little cover, I would hope to see him produced fast and late to land the spoils.
As a post-script, we were correct about the price at least - 13/2 is now the best available!
4.50 Beverley Carlito's Spirit 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Have a look through Carlito's Spirit's win record and you'll see a pattern emerging pretty quickly. He does almost all his winning when drawn against a rail. After his last win, the groom said:
"He`s been unlucky. He tends to go right handed so the draw helped him as he had the rail. He appreciated the extra half furlong" - James Micklem, travelling head groom
So the plum rail draw at right-handed Beverley is just what he needs and gets today. He has dropped to a fair mark and although his stable are 4/67 this year, they are 1/1 at this track, with Dabber's Ridge, who also runs here, winning at 25/1 a week or two ago. 16/1 is too big.
5.05 Chepstow Dragonessa 1.5pts win @ 14/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed)
Represents Bryn Palling who does really well here. Dragonessa was another early price sting for us last autumn when we took 25/1 about her at Lingfield and she won at 10/1. I chalked her down as a potential Chepstow horse straight away - she races prominently, likes to be in front, and finds for pressure. Chepstow is a course where is often pays to race prominently. Her trainer has an excellent record at this track and 14/1 looks far too big, especially if a little more rain falls.
Today is an extremely interesting day and we're confident of getting back on track. Some of our luck lately has been appalling and we're overdue a big day.
4.00 Kempton Mac's Power 2.5pts each-way @ 14/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed - Early Price Advised to all clients 7.00am)
Some poor lad or lass at Bet 365 was obviously let loose with a few sheets of paper and a calculator for the first time last night on the graveyard shift, when the regular crew were on the piss for the bank holiday weekend. Whoever it was will get a bollicking off a hungover head odds compiler today whether Mac's Power wins or loses. The 14/1 they chalked up about this fella last night, which was available until around 9am, was an absolute abomination of a rick, as I pointed out in our price alert e-mail.
Mac's Power is a very nicely bred, talented son of Exceed and Excel who has extensive strong Kempton form and closed out his 2009 firmly on the up and up with a fourth to the easy Lincoln winner Penitent, who dead heated with Stoic in that contest, a seven runner race not run to suit Mac's Power. The form of that contest is working out really well, with the Lincoln winner and group class Penitent the obvious starting point. The other dead-heater Stoic has since repeated his RPR of that night in a hot Meydan handicap, 103. Musleh, the third, has been disappointing but the fifth is now rated 93 after a flat win and won a couple of good hurdle races. Elliptical finished sixth and was only beaten a head by Tartan Gigha in an ultra competitive Newmarket handicap on Saturday. This and the fact that the pace was moderate leads me to believe Mac's Power is well handicapped with his mark of 85.
Then there's the Fanshawe factor. James Fanshawe has been in cracking form and as you all know is a trainer I have a lot of time for. No disrespect to P.J. O'Gorman, but I would be surprised if Fanshawe could not improve this horse still further. I'm not sure how he picked the horse up or the circumstances behind the transfer, but he does not tend to waste his time with bad horses. Mac's Power has a very fast cruising speed and this race has some pace to it, if Pat Cosgrave can get him settled in a mid to rear position with a little cover, I would hope to see him produced fast and late to land the spoils.
As a post-script, we were correct about the price at least - 13/2 is now the best available!
4.50 Beverley Carlito's Spirit 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Have a look through Carlito's Spirit's win record and you'll see a pattern emerging pretty quickly. He does almost all his winning when drawn against a rail. After his last win, the groom said:
"He`s been unlucky. He tends to go right handed so the draw helped him as he had the rail. He appreciated the extra half furlong" - James Micklem, travelling head groom
So the plum rail draw at right-handed Beverley is just what he needs and gets today. He has dropped to a fair mark and although his stable are 4/67 this year, they are 1/1 at this track, with Dabber's Ridge, who also runs here, winning at 25/1 a week or two ago. 16/1 is too big.
5.05 Chepstow Dragonessa 1.5pts win @ 14/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed)
Represents Bryn Palling who does really well here. Dragonessa was another early price sting for us last autumn when we took 25/1 about her at Lingfield and she won at 10/1. I chalked her down as a potential Chepstow horse straight away - she races prominently, likes to be in front, and finds for pressure. Chepstow is a course where is often pays to race prominently. Her trainer has an excellent record at this track and 14/1 looks far too big, especially if a little more rain falls.
Sunday May 2nd
Dick Turpin was unfortunate to go down to the French raider in the Guineas yesterday and again we made the right calls without getting rewarded. Rowan Tiger clipped heels in running and lost all chance but Spin Cycle was disappointing.
A bad Saturday all in all. We've two bets for 1,000 Guineas day.
3.20 Newmarket Blue Maiden 1.5pts each-way @ 16/1 (Stan James offer 1/4 odds 4 places special, and price guaranteed)
I can't for the life of me see why Blue Maiden is 20/1 in places, and I'm very happy to take the guaranteed 16/1 Stan James offer with 1/4 odds 4 places and the price guaranteed. Her form against Music Show is among the very best on offer here and I think too much has been made of the fact that Music Show will come on for that run. Added to that I feel the selection's small stable is factored into the price. I've no doubt she will be suited by trip and ground today and she was staying on very well behind Music Show last time out. Jamie Spencer is booked to rise. I don't like the look of Seta or Special Duty who have plenty of question marks about them, Blue Maiden is a lovely looking filly and coming into the race after a recent RPR 110 performance gives er every chance of winning this. She will probably go off 20/1 which will mean we're getting 1/4 odds 4 places at 5/1 on the place part of the bet, which is excellent value.
3.55 Newmarket Imperial Guest 1.5pts each-way @ 25/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
Loves a strong pace on good or better ground and once it doesn't get boglike out there this fella has every chance. I like his draw as I think there may just be a high draw bias on this ground, and I think there is some decent pace drawn high too. Is in fine fettle having won impressively at Brighton lasttime out and he is highly rated by his trainer, who said after his recent run:
"We got off the mark here last season with Magical Speedfit, another of John Guest's horses, and we've done it again.He needs to come off a fast pace and Peter Island provided just that. We've took our time with him and we might just look at a race like the Wokingham for him."
Imperial Guest has raced in better company in the past and he might just be able to defy a mark of 90 at a huge price today. The excellent Tom Queally takes the ride.
A bad Saturday all in all. We've two bets for 1,000 Guineas day.
3.20 Newmarket Blue Maiden 1.5pts each-way @ 16/1 (Stan James offer 1/4 odds 4 places special, and price guaranteed)
I can't for the life of me see why Blue Maiden is 20/1 in places, and I'm very happy to take the guaranteed 16/1 Stan James offer with 1/4 odds 4 places and the price guaranteed. Her form against Music Show is among the very best on offer here and I think too much has been made of the fact that Music Show will come on for that run. Added to that I feel the selection's small stable is factored into the price. I've no doubt she will be suited by trip and ground today and she was staying on very well behind Music Show last time out. Jamie Spencer is booked to rise. I don't like the look of Seta or Special Duty who have plenty of question marks about them, Blue Maiden is a lovely looking filly and coming into the race after a recent RPR 110 performance gives er every chance of winning this. She will probably go off 20/1 which will mean we're getting 1/4 odds 4 places at 5/1 on the place part of the bet, which is excellent value.
3.55 Newmarket Imperial Guest 1.5pts each-way @ 25/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
Loves a strong pace on good or better ground and once it doesn't get boglike out there this fella has every chance. I like his draw as I think there may just be a high draw bias on this ground, and I think there is some decent pace drawn high too. Is in fine fettle having won impressively at Brighton lasttime out and he is highly rated by his trainer, who said after his recent run:
"We got off the mark here last season with Magical Speedfit, another of John Guest's horses, and we've done it again.He needs to come off a fast pace and Peter Island provided just that. We've took our time with him and we might just look at a race like the Wokingham for him."
Imperial Guest has raced in better company in the past and he might just be able to defy a mark of 90 at a huge price today. The excellent Tom Queally takes the ride.
Saturday May 1st
Bombay Mist was a non-runner yesterday and 16/1 (advised) Night Lily grabbed second to put us nicely in profit for the day.
I'm very happy with our recent progress. The ones that aren't hitting the mark are generally worth following because we've spotted certain conditions that will improve their performance, and the big bets are going in. April is a tough time and was our only losing month last year, but I'm absolutely confident we're about to have our best flat season ever. I expect our best profits to come from the end of June onwards, as has been the pattern in recent years.
2,00 Guineas day is upon us, it's May 1st, summer is here and that means top class flat racing. It's a busy day for us.
2.15 Goodwood Rowan Tiger 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Stan James, Guaranteed)
A massive price on all known evidence from what I can see. Rowan Tiger is a progressive staying handicapper by Tiger Hill, a good stamina influence and a sire whose progeny tend to improve with age and distance. After rattling up an all-weather hat trick last autumn, including a 9/1 maximum bet for us, he was put away for the winter and reappeared in a half decent race at Kempton which was run at an absolute crawl. Pulling throughout the journey, Rowan Tiger did really well to hang in there and wasn't beaten far at the finish. That run should put him spot on fitness wise and the presence of Gargano, Relative Strength and a couple of other prominent racers should ensure a decent gallop on here. He likes to sit midfield and pounce fairly late on and I reckon this race will be run absolutely to suit him.
3.05 Newmarket - The 2,000 Guineas
Fencing Master 2pts win @ 15.5/1 (Betfair, already advised)
Divide 1pt as savers between Inler, Al Zir and Dick Turpin (currently 29/1, 21/1, 26/1 on Betfair respectively)
From our ante post write up, regarding Fencing Master:
For me Fencing Master has excellent claims for this contest. After a decent win first time out he ran a monster of a race in the Dewhurst, where I think he may still have been a little green. He got himself behind early on, not through a lack of pace, but he just seemed to be taken aback by the whole experience of taking on top class colts for the first time. He made extremely good progress in the middle of the race after having quite a bit of ground to make up, before his run flattened out a little near the finish and he had to settle for second. The fact that O'Brien sends him over as his second string bodes very well with regards to the question of whether he has wintered well, as does the string of group one and classic entries. I must say I like his sire, Oratorio, as a stallion as much as I liked him as a racehorse, his progeny so far seem to be even tempered, dependable and can be very classy - he has already sired Group 1 winners in both hemispheres. Looking at his breeding, Fencing Master possesses just a little more speed than his sire did, and a strong pace on the Rowley Mile will play right into his hands at this stage of his career. Colm O'Donoghue is a very capable pilot, and the 14/1+ still available on Betfair should be taken at this stage.
I'm also advising small savers on the above three mentioned. Dick Turpin is a straightforward, classy horse who ran straight and true to the line in the Greenham and overhauled another good one in Canford Cliffs. The champion jockey rides and I think he will stay. Al Zir represents a Godolphin team whose horses continue to go well and they are confident of a bold showing - he was a big two year old and should have trained on; Frankie Dettori rides and he is a big price. Inler represents John Best, who does NOT tilt at windmills. He is an excellent form student who knows full well when he has a good horse, and Inler impressed me in his recent work. He looks the type to surprise even though he has only won a maiden. I'm happy to have small savers on these three at big prices because I do not think the favourite, Canford Cliffs, and Awzaan represent much value at all and I'm happy to watch Elusive Pimpernel win at his odds.
All that said, I think Fencing Master is the definite value bet here.
3.40 Newmarket Spin Cycle 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Stan James - 1/4 odds a place and price guaranteed)
Represents Bryan Smart who is renowned for training good sprinters and who won this race with a seasonal debutant in Captain Gerard a couple of years ago. Spin Cycle is a progressive course and distance winner who won first time out last year, and last time out posting a career best in beating some good sprinters. He appeals as the type to improve physically this season and I think he is very likely to be 100% fit and ready to go today. I think Amour Propre is short enough, and there are various question marks against the others in my opinion. I think 14/1 and 1/4 odds a place is fantastic value.
I'm very happy with our recent progress. The ones that aren't hitting the mark are generally worth following because we've spotted certain conditions that will improve their performance, and the big bets are going in. April is a tough time and was our only losing month last year, but I'm absolutely confident we're about to have our best flat season ever. I expect our best profits to come from the end of June onwards, as has been the pattern in recent years.
2,00 Guineas day is upon us, it's May 1st, summer is here and that means top class flat racing. It's a busy day for us.
2.15 Goodwood Rowan Tiger 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Stan James, Guaranteed)
A massive price on all known evidence from what I can see. Rowan Tiger is a progressive staying handicapper by Tiger Hill, a good stamina influence and a sire whose progeny tend to improve with age and distance. After rattling up an all-weather hat trick last autumn, including a 9/1 maximum bet for us, he was put away for the winter and reappeared in a half decent race at Kempton which was run at an absolute crawl. Pulling throughout the journey, Rowan Tiger did really well to hang in there and wasn't beaten far at the finish. That run should put him spot on fitness wise and the presence of Gargano, Relative Strength and a couple of other prominent racers should ensure a decent gallop on here. He likes to sit midfield and pounce fairly late on and I reckon this race will be run absolutely to suit him.
3.05 Newmarket - The 2,000 Guineas
Fencing Master 2pts win @ 15.5/1 (Betfair, already advised)
Divide 1pt as savers between Inler, Al Zir and Dick Turpin (currently 29/1, 21/1, 26/1 on Betfair respectively)
From our ante post write up, regarding Fencing Master:
For me Fencing Master has excellent claims for this contest. After a decent win first time out he ran a monster of a race in the Dewhurst, where I think he may still have been a little green. He got himself behind early on, not through a lack of pace, but he just seemed to be taken aback by the whole experience of taking on top class colts for the first time. He made extremely good progress in the middle of the race after having quite a bit of ground to make up, before his run flattened out a little near the finish and he had to settle for second. The fact that O'Brien sends him over as his second string bodes very well with regards to the question of whether he has wintered well, as does the string of group one and classic entries. I must say I like his sire, Oratorio, as a stallion as much as I liked him as a racehorse, his progeny so far seem to be even tempered, dependable and can be very classy - he has already sired Group 1 winners in both hemispheres. Looking at his breeding, Fencing Master possesses just a little more speed than his sire did, and a strong pace on the Rowley Mile will play right into his hands at this stage of his career. Colm O'Donoghue is a very capable pilot, and the 14/1+ still available on Betfair should be taken at this stage.
I'm also advising small savers on the above three mentioned. Dick Turpin is a straightforward, classy horse who ran straight and true to the line in the Greenham and overhauled another good one in Canford Cliffs. The champion jockey rides and I think he will stay. Al Zir represents a Godolphin team whose horses continue to go well and they are confident of a bold showing - he was a big two year old and should have trained on; Frankie Dettori rides and he is a big price. Inler represents John Best, who does NOT tilt at windmills. He is an excellent form student who knows full well when he has a good horse, and Inler impressed me in his recent work. He looks the type to surprise even though he has only won a maiden. I'm happy to have small savers on these three at big prices because I do not think the favourite, Canford Cliffs, and Awzaan represent much value at all and I'm happy to watch Elusive Pimpernel win at his odds.
All that said, I think Fencing Master is the definite value bet here.
3.40 Newmarket Spin Cycle 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Stan James - 1/4 odds a place and price guaranteed)
Represents Bryan Smart who is renowned for training good sprinters and who won this race with a seasonal debutant in Captain Gerard a couple of years ago. Spin Cycle is a progressive course and distance winner who won first time out last year, and last time out posting a career best in beating some good sprinters. He appeals as the type to improve physically this season and I think he is very likely to be 100% fit and ready to go today. I think Amour Propre is short enough, and there are various question marks against the others in my opinion. I think 14/1 and 1/4 odds a place is fantastic value.
Friday April 30th
Two bets for today:
Tomorrow is a huge day for us and I can't wait, to be honest!
2.20 Musselburgh Bombay Mist 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Small speculative bet, first time eyeshields for this horse who has showed blinding early speed and if she can stay on firm ground on turf, might have a chance of winning this poor race. Stable are in fine form and the booking of the excellent Silvestre De Sousa to do the light weight is eye catching.
2.30 Doncaster Night Lily 2pts each-way 16/1 (VC Bet, Guaranteed - 14/1 generally) each-way 2nd
Tony Culhane deserts Toby Tyler to ride Night Lily, who has changed stable and makes her debut for Paul D'Arcy today. He does really well with fillies and mares and I think he will find more improvement with a horse who was fourth to Rainbow View on her debut and has gone close on ground similar to todays on numerous occasions. She looks to be open to further progress and I notice she has another entry over seven furlongs in a few days at Warwick - could it be a plan to turn her out under a penalty? Many of today's rivals look to have question marks of one sort or another and 16/1 about a horse proven on the ground and over the trip looks good each-way value.
Tomorrow is a huge day for us and I can't wait, to be honest!
2.20 Musselburgh Bombay Mist 1pt win @ Betfair SP
Small speculative bet, first time eyeshields for this horse who has showed blinding early speed and if she can stay on firm ground on turf, might have a chance of winning this poor race. Stable are in fine form and the booking of the excellent Silvestre De Sousa to do the light weight is eye catching.
2.30 Doncaster Night Lily 2pts each-way 16/1 (VC Bet, Guaranteed - 14/1 generally) each-way 2nd
Tony Culhane deserts Toby Tyler to ride Night Lily, who has changed stable and makes her debut for Paul D'Arcy today. He does really well with fillies and mares and I think he will find more improvement with a horse who was fourth to Rainbow View on her debut and has gone close on ground similar to todays on numerous occasions. She looks to be open to further progress and I notice she has another entry over seven furlongs in a few days at Warwick - could it be a plan to turn her out under a penalty? Many of today's rivals look to have question marks of one sort or another and 16/1 about a horse proven on the ground and over the trip looks good each-way value.
Thursday April 29th
A really good day yesterday with 20.5pts profit thanks to the talented Society Rock, who bounded clear once finding a gap at odds of 9/2. He really is a horse to follow and is in the right hands.
Two small interests for today on a poor day's racing.
2.10 Folkstone Lady Of Garmorgan 2pts win @ 8/1 (Paddy Powers, guaranteed)
Represents Paul Cole who has been in very good form so far this year. Loads of his horses are running into places and he is getting the odd winner too, after a tough time of it last season. The selection ran in that maiden we recently highlighted as working out well, contested by recent NR who we had supported, Starclass. The daughter of U.S. sprinter Mr. Greeley showed bright speed from the stalls and led a group of very decent horses until around the 2f pole, when she faded out of contention. The drop back from seven to five furlongs is interesting, given the speed elements in her pedigree. She must be showing that same speed on the gallops to warrant such a move on only her second start, they would not be messing around with such an expensive purchase to get a handicap mark - she cost $235,000 dollars and they'll want a win from her for the paddocks at least. The opposition today have loads of question marks about them, and if the selection appreciates the fast ground as her U.S. pedigree suggests, she can leave her debut running behind and put this lot to the sword.
5.30 Brighton Djalalabad 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed)
An old favourite horse of mine who went in for me at a price one night at Wolves. I found it very interesting that Jeff Pearce took her on and have kept tabs on her progress since. Jeff does really well with mares and on both her starts for him, she has raced with far more enthusiasm than she had done for Christine Dunnett, who hasn't been in the best of form for the past year. I think she will pick up a race sooner rather than later and her latest run at Kempton was very interesting, she kept tabs with much higher rated horses until the two furlong pole. Dropped back to six furlongs today, she will get a strong pace to run and and should be bounding up the hill near the finish - if she doesn't bag a little race like this on the turf soon, she'll win one on the all weather. 40/1 each-way is too big to resist.
Two small interests for today on a poor day's racing.
2.10 Folkstone Lady Of Garmorgan 2pts win @ 8/1 (Paddy Powers, guaranteed)
Represents Paul Cole who has been in very good form so far this year. Loads of his horses are running into places and he is getting the odd winner too, after a tough time of it last season. The selection ran in that maiden we recently highlighted as working out well, contested by recent NR who we had supported, Starclass. The daughter of U.S. sprinter Mr. Greeley showed bright speed from the stalls and led a group of very decent horses until around the 2f pole, when she faded out of contention. The drop back from seven to five furlongs is interesting, given the speed elements in her pedigree. She must be showing that same speed on the gallops to warrant such a move on only her second start, they would not be messing around with such an expensive purchase to get a handicap mark - she cost $235,000 dollars and they'll want a win from her for the paddocks at least. The opposition today have loads of question marks about them, and if the selection appreciates the fast ground as her U.S. pedigree suggests, she can leave her debut running behind and put this lot to the sword.
5.30 Brighton Djalalabad 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed)
An old favourite horse of mine who went in for me at a price one night at Wolves. I found it very interesting that Jeff Pearce took her on and have kept tabs on her progress since. Jeff does really well with mares and on both her starts for him, she has raced with far more enthusiasm than she had done for Christine Dunnett, who hasn't been in the best of form for the past year. I think she will pick up a race sooner rather than later and her latest run at Kempton was very interesting, she kept tabs with much higher rated horses until the two furlong pole. Dropped back to six furlongs today, she will get a strong pace to run and and should be bounding up the hill near the finish - if she doesn't bag a little race like this on the turf soon, she'll win one on the all weather. 40/1 each-way is too big to resist.
Wednesday April 28th
Big Sur flattered to deceive again yesterday. There is a race in him but I'm not sure if yesterday was the day, and I probably won't follow him.
Two for today.
4.30 Ascot Society Rock 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) WON
Looked a very progressive horse last year and ran really well from the wrong side of the course in a very good sales race last time he was seen. That was also over seven furlongs, a trip his trainer James Fanshawe always doubted he would get after his debut run, due mostly to the speed in the breeding on the dam's side. He is unbeaten over six furlongs and I must say I really like James Fanshawe's training of sprinters - he has had some very good ones down the years and he knows how to get them ready. He also targets this meeting and the booking of up and coming Pat Cosgrave is a big positive in my book. 4/1 looks too big.
5.40 Ascot Satwa Laird 2pts win @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
A race choc full of all weather horses ready to try their hand on the turf, but Satwa Laird is the exact opposite. He is fit from a recent spin on the all weather and to my mind looks well treated off 85 on his 2/17 over course and distance last season. Ashley Hamblett takes 3lbs off and is good value for it. Also, Ed Dunlop's stable have been in blinding form just lately, far better than last year, and I think the selection would be 9/2 if Kieren Fallon was booked. Fallon rides for Brendan Powell here but I think there is decent value to be had at 10/1 on Dunlop's horse. Might drift on course so make absolutely sure, as always, to get a guaranteed price.
Two for today.
4.30 Ascot Society Rock 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) WON
Looked a very progressive horse last year and ran really well from the wrong side of the course in a very good sales race last time he was seen. That was also over seven furlongs, a trip his trainer James Fanshawe always doubted he would get after his debut run, due mostly to the speed in the breeding on the dam's side. He is unbeaten over six furlongs and I must say I really like James Fanshawe's training of sprinters - he has had some very good ones down the years and he knows how to get them ready. He also targets this meeting and the booking of up and coming Pat Cosgrave is a big positive in my book. 4/1 looks too big.
5.40 Ascot Satwa Laird 2pts win @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
A race choc full of all weather horses ready to try their hand on the turf, but Satwa Laird is the exact opposite. He is fit from a recent spin on the all weather and to my mind looks well treated off 85 on his 2/17 over course and distance last season. Ashley Hamblett takes 3lbs off and is good value for it. Also, Ed Dunlop's stable have been in blinding form just lately, far better than last year, and I think the selection would be 9/2 if Kieren Fallon was booked. Fallon rides for Brendan Powell here but I think there is decent value to be had at 10/1 on Dunlop's horse. Might drift on course so make absolutely sure, as always, to get a guaranteed price.
Tuesday April 27th
A poor start to the week with Parc Des Princes unplaced at Windsor. He absolutely hated the firm ground, which contradicts elements of his form last year, but horses grow and change and I can't wait to see him back on polytrack - he remains worth close interest, and he may very well merit a decent bet at some stage soon.
One small interest on a very average day.
3.00 Lingfield Big Sur, 4pts win @ 7/2 (generally, make sure to get guaranteed)
Ran a really eye catching race last time out as a three year old at a huge price behind some fair horses. The winner franked that form next time out, but it was the way Big Sur looked physically and moved on the polytrack that impressed. He is very well bred and he stood out a mile on looks and physicality. I can't believe the handicapper has allotted a mark of 60 for that run because I reckon he is a bit better than that. He may well drift in the market so I'm taking 7/2 guaranteed instead of the non-guaranteed 4/1 available, and I think he will run a mighty race if he is ready to go, against some poor opposition.
One small interest on a very average day.
3.00 Lingfield Big Sur, 4pts win @ 7/2 (generally, make sure to get guaranteed)
Ran a really eye catching race last time out as a three year old at a huge price behind some fair horses. The winner franked that form next time out, but it was the way Big Sur looked physically and moved on the polytrack that impressed. He is very well bred and he stood out a mile on looks and physicality. I can't believe the handicapper has allotted a mark of 60 for that run because I reckon he is a bit better than that. He may well drift in the market so I'm taking 7/2 guaranteed instead of the non-guaranteed 4/1 available, and I think he will run a mighty race if he is ready to go, against some poor opposition.
Monday April 26th
A fantastic end to the week for us on Saturday with Hulcote Rose, our heaviest bet in quite a while, stylishly landed us 32.5pts profit under George Baker, after a frustrating week. As I said, I never worry about little losig runs because the cookie can't always crumble our way - our staking and value approach will always see us ahead in the long run. After Scamperdale at 30/1 and The Meehan 3yo at 9/1 trading 1.25 and 1.37 respectively within the week, we deserved that success.
One bet for today.
6.10 Windsor Parc Des Princes 3pts each-way @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Parc Des Princes has looked a slowly progressive horse for Andrew Balding and he really came of age with an impressive victory at Lingfield last backend. Well supported for that 12f handicap, he sat out the back off a very slow pace and travelled into the race with supreme ease, displaying a wicked turn of foot to put significant distance between himself and the now OR72 second placed horse and win impressivey.
It's hard to tell what he acheived off a mark in the mid 60's beating a moderate bunch of horses, but the turn of foot was very taking, even moreso from off that slow pace. I think this could be an OR90 horse in time if he keeps progressive like he has, which puts him in with every chance off 72 tonight. The excellent David Probert takes the ride again and the likely strong pace to this contest will suit him all the better. 8/1 looks a big price and although fitness is taken on trust, the stable are in excellent form and have most of their horses ready first time up.
One bet for today.
6.10 Windsor Parc Des Princes 3pts each-way @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Parc Des Princes has looked a slowly progressive horse for Andrew Balding and he really came of age with an impressive victory at Lingfield last backend. Well supported for that 12f handicap, he sat out the back off a very slow pace and travelled into the race with supreme ease, displaying a wicked turn of foot to put significant distance between himself and the now OR72 second placed horse and win impressivey.
It's hard to tell what he acheived off a mark in the mid 60's beating a moderate bunch of horses, but the turn of foot was very taking, even moreso from off that slow pace. I think this could be an OR90 horse in time if he keeps progressive like he has, which puts him in with every chance off 72 tonight. The excellent David Probert takes the ride again and the likely strong pace to this contest will suit him all the better. 8/1 looks a big price and although fitness is taken on trust, the stable are in excellent form and have most of their horses ready first time up.
Saturday April 24th
Not a week to remember for us by any means but we do have one confident selection for today.
No bets tomorrow, back on Monday as usual.
8.20 Wolverhampton Hulcote Rose 7pts win @ 9/2 (William Hill and generally, get guaranteed)
Represents a stable who have had three recent three year old winners and are looking for a fourth here. Hulcote Rose's fitness has to be taken on trust but of the other three winners, one was making its seasonal debut too, and another was second on reappearance, so the stable have their string relatively forward which is a good sign. George Baker is booked, he has a 13% strike rate for the stable in recent years.
Hulcote Rose was progressive in maiden company last season and was well punted on two occasions, landing each-way money on his second run and winning third time out. The handicapper has rated him 70 but I think he could be a stone better than that mark in time. He is a really good looking, strong physical specimen who looked every bit a decent three year old in the making last year. Provided he has wintered well, I think he can make his mark in better company and there is nothing in today's line up to scare him. He carries topweight and I think he he should outclass these barring one of the lurkers finding improvement from nowhere.
No bets tomorrow, back on Monday as usual.
8.20 Wolverhampton Hulcote Rose 7pts win @ 9/2 (William Hill and generally, get guaranteed)
Represents a stable who have had three recent three year old winners and are looking for a fourth here. Hulcote Rose's fitness has to be taken on trust but of the other three winners, one was making its seasonal debut too, and another was second on reappearance, so the stable have their string relatively forward which is a good sign. George Baker is booked, he has a 13% strike rate for the stable in recent years.
Hulcote Rose was progressive in maiden company last season and was well punted on two occasions, landing each-way money on his second run and winning third time out. The handicapper has rated him 70 but I think he could be a stone better than that mark in time. He is a really good looking, strong physical specimen who looked every bit a decent three year old in the making last year. Provided he has wintered well, I think he can make his mark in better company and there is nothing in today's line up to scare him. He carries topweight and I think he he should outclass these barring one of the lurkers finding improvement from nowhere.
Thursday April 22nd
Two bets for today.
2.40 Perth Easter Queen 1pt each-way @ 22/1 (Stan James, guaranteed, 20/1 guaranteed generally)
This is probably the last race I thought I'd be betting in today, but a closer examination reveals some hidden form in the backlog of Easter Queen. The selection is a winning pointer who made her hurdles debut at Hexham last year, staying on to good effect over two and a half miles behind a decent horse of James Lambe's. There is plenty of stamina in her pedigree and the step up to three miles is bound to suit, an assertion backed up by the visual evidence of that Hexham run. She disappointed on soft ground on two starts since then, but she has been allotted a lowly handicap mark of 90 and there is scope for improvement stepped up in trip for her handicap debut on ground she enjoys. The services of a decent 3lb claimer are employed and she is good value at a huge price.
5.30 Punchestown Cousin Vinny 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Leaps off the page in my opinion. This talented horse has gone through a bit of a nothing patch, but acquitted himself really well at Cheltenham in the World Hurdle, staying on nicely until a late mistake saw him eased. He was level with Karabak going to the last hurdle, and I can't quite see why that rival is as low as 9/2 for this contest, while Cousin Vinny is 16/1. The selection has won again since, over a trip and on ground that were not ideal, and I would expect him to be able to improve on the rating of 150 he posted there, which puts him bang in contention today. Patrick Mullins takes the ride and with the stable in such blinding form, I think their apparent third string has a great chance to add to their already phenomenal haul this week.
2.40 Perth Easter Queen 1pt each-way @ 22/1 (Stan James, guaranteed, 20/1 guaranteed generally)
This is probably the last race I thought I'd be betting in today, but a closer examination reveals some hidden form in the backlog of Easter Queen. The selection is a winning pointer who made her hurdles debut at Hexham last year, staying on to good effect over two and a half miles behind a decent horse of James Lambe's. There is plenty of stamina in her pedigree and the step up to three miles is bound to suit, an assertion backed up by the visual evidence of that Hexham run. She disappointed on soft ground on two starts since then, but she has been allotted a lowly handicap mark of 90 and there is scope for improvement stepped up in trip for her handicap debut on ground she enjoys. The services of a decent 3lb claimer are employed and she is good value at a huge price.
5.30 Punchestown Cousin Vinny 2pts each-way @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Leaps off the page in my opinion. This talented horse has gone through a bit of a nothing patch, but acquitted himself really well at Cheltenham in the World Hurdle, staying on nicely until a late mistake saw him eased. He was level with Karabak going to the last hurdle, and I can't quite see why that rival is as low as 9/2 for this contest, while Cousin Vinny is 16/1. The selection has won again since, over a trip and on ground that were not ideal, and I would expect him to be able to improve on the rating of 150 he posted there, which puts him bang in contention today. Patrick Mullins takes the ride and with the stable in such blinding form, I think their apparent third string has a great chance to add to their already phenomenal haul this week.
Wednesday April 21st
We were extremely unlucky yesterday, with Aultcharn trading 1.37 in running before being pipped on the post by his stablemate.
Today is our busiest day in a long time, we have three bets which is almost unprecedented for us. However, we're outlaying only 10pts, which is only a little above our average.
5.15 Epsom Rain On The Wind 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Totesport, Boylesports, guaranteed)
There is a definite case on his pedigree and his racing style to date that Rain On The Wind might be a miler and not a sprinter. Our of Bertolini with stamina influence Linamix on the dam's side, he has been campaigned at distances up to six furlongs thus far and on numerous occasions has stayed on from the rear without threatening. Last time out he received a very unusual ride, to say the least, and there are some indications that this is a well handicapped horse who might come into his own sooner rather than later. I think there's a chance he could be around a stone better than his current rating of 65, and today's class five handicap looks a winnable event for a horse with that profile. William Carson takes a further 3lb off and at 16/1, I'm happy to have a speculative interest that she shows improved form today.
6.10 Punchestown Joncol 3pts win @ 6/1 (Paddy Power, guaranteed, also 6/1 with Skybet, Sporting Bet)
Smashing chaser of Paul Nolan's who stands around eighteen hands. I've long thought Joncol to be top class, and he will have to go close to winning today if that is indeed the case. This could be his coming of age race, it has been his target all season and Paul is finally taking off the cotton wool to see what he can do. He has been weak in the markets because it is generally thought he needs soft ground, but he wouldn't be running if it wasn't suitable for him and Punchestown have watered plenty this week. Denman looks to be coming here as an afterthought, and the one I'm worried about as the danger is Cooldine. I think Joncol stays very well, and if he's on the leader's coattails coming around the home turn, he can land the spoils.
8.20 Kempton Admire The View 5pts win @ 11/2 (Coral, guaranteed)
Bet of the day. A dughter of Dubawi, whose progeny have an excellent record on artificial surfaces. Posted an RPR of 90 when demolishing some average horses in a maiden at Thirsk last summer, before bombing out in a group 3 after. The records show good ground on both occasions, but video evidence clearly shows that Thirsk was Good to Soft at the very least, there was loads of juice in the ground and the selection enjoyed it. She simply didn't let herself down on what looked like good to firm ground at Newbury, and on a surface which is much more forgiving she is a confident choice today. Forget the usual misinformation in the Racing Post that the stable haven't come to hand, their last two runners have finished first (ridden by today's jockey, last night at this course) and a close second. Has everything in her favour here and could be a cut above these rivals.
Today is our busiest day in a long time, we have three bets which is almost unprecedented for us. However, we're outlaying only 10pts, which is only a little above our average.
5.15 Epsom Rain On The Wind 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Totesport, Boylesports, guaranteed)
There is a definite case on his pedigree and his racing style to date that Rain On The Wind might be a miler and not a sprinter. Our of Bertolini with stamina influence Linamix on the dam's side, he has been campaigned at distances up to six furlongs thus far and on numerous occasions has stayed on from the rear without threatening. Last time out he received a very unusual ride, to say the least, and there are some indications that this is a well handicapped horse who might come into his own sooner rather than later. I think there's a chance he could be around a stone better than his current rating of 65, and today's class five handicap looks a winnable event for a horse with that profile. William Carson takes a further 3lb off and at 16/1, I'm happy to have a speculative interest that she shows improved form today.
6.10 Punchestown Joncol 3pts win @ 6/1 (Paddy Power, guaranteed, also 6/1 with Skybet, Sporting Bet)
Smashing chaser of Paul Nolan's who stands around eighteen hands. I've long thought Joncol to be top class, and he will have to go close to winning today if that is indeed the case. This could be his coming of age race, it has been his target all season and Paul is finally taking off the cotton wool to see what he can do. He has been weak in the markets because it is generally thought he needs soft ground, but he wouldn't be running if it wasn't suitable for him and Punchestown have watered plenty this week. Denman looks to be coming here as an afterthought, and the one I'm worried about as the danger is Cooldine. I think Joncol stays very well, and if he's on the leader's coattails coming around the home turn, he can land the spoils.
8.20 Kempton Admire The View 5pts win @ 11/2 (Coral, guaranteed)
Bet of the day. A dughter of Dubawi, whose progeny have an excellent record on artificial surfaces. Posted an RPR of 90 when demolishing some average horses in a maiden at Thirsk last summer, before bombing out in a group 3 after. The records show good ground on both occasions, but video evidence clearly shows that Thirsk was Good to Soft at the very least, there was loads of juice in the ground and the selection enjoyed it. She simply didn't let herself down on what looked like good to firm ground at Newbury, and on a surface which is much more forgiving she is a confident choice today. Forget the usual misinformation in the Racing Post that the stable haven't come to hand, their last two runners have finished first (ridden by today's jockey, last night at this course) and a close second. Has everything in her favour here and could be a cut above these rivals.
Tuesday April 20th
I must say I was absolutely gutted Starclass was withdrawn last night. Having seen the way the race panned out, and analysed the form, I'm quite sure she would have won. She certainly had the beating of Circus Girl, and the newcomers weren't up to much just as I thought. So just a non-runner to start the week.
Two bets today.
2.50 Kempton Aultcharn 3pts win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Represents Brian Meehan whose stable seems to be coming alive after starting the season 0-17. Had a 3yo winner on Saturday, and an impressive handicap winner that evening, as well as a few decent placed efforts. Aultcharn turns up for his third run today after two runs at Newbury, a track where Meehan tends to send his better 2yo's. He has also placed him encouragingly today, this is a half decent maiden and if this fella was rubbish he'd be running in a tin pot event at Catterick or Leicester.
Aultcharn was green on his debut but turned in a really eye catching effort on his second run. On really soft ground, he made all as far as the two furlong pole without so much as coming off the bridle against some very good horses, before giving way to an OR 90+ horse of Godolphins. Some Kyllachys do like the soft ground but I don't think this fella got home on it. He faded at the furlong pole and was beaten ten lengths at the finish, with a few horses staying on late through the faders to nab places. Interestingly, Roger Charlton's Sea Of Heartbreak also travelled well on the speed that day and faded; she followed up by winning a maiden at Wolves next time out. Aultcharn showed far more potential at Newbury that day, and I'd be surprised if he is not an 80+ horse at least. Providing he has trained on, he can win here getting some decent weight for age from the favourite.
3.45 Wolves Uncle Keef 5pts win @ 2/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Worst kept secret of the day but 2/1 remains just about fair. Uncle Keef ran an interesting race last time at Folkstone, losing his place before staying on again over 12 furlongs. His stamina laden pedigree demands this step up to 16 furlongs and he looks very well handicapped today if the potential of his last run is to be believed. He cost a few bob and should be a lot better than a 60 rated horse. George Baker takes over from Katia Scallan, and a win looks on the cards.
Two bets today.
2.50 Kempton Aultcharn 3pts win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Represents Brian Meehan whose stable seems to be coming alive after starting the season 0-17. Had a 3yo winner on Saturday, and an impressive handicap winner that evening, as well as a few decent placed efforts. Aultcharn turns up for his third run today after two runs at Newbury, a track where Meehan tends to send his better 2yo's. He has also placed him encouragingly today, this is a half decent maiden and if this fella was rubbish he'd be running in a tin pot event at Catterick or Leicester.
Aultcharn was green on his debut but turned in a really eye catching effort on his second run. On really soft ground, he made all as far as the two furlong pole without so much as coming off the bridle against some very good horses, before giving way to an OR 90+ horse of Godolphins. Some Kyllachys do like the soft ground but I don't think this fella got home on it. He faded at the furlong pole and was beaten ten lengths at the finish, with a few horses staying on late through the faders to nab places. Interestingly, Roger Charlton's Sea Of Heartbreak also travelled well on the speed that day and faded; she followed up by winning a maiden at Wolves next time out. Aultcharn showed far more potential at Newbury that day, and I'd be surprised if he is not an 80+ horse at least. Providing he has trained on, he can win here getting some decent weight for age from the favourite.
3.45 Wolves Uncle Keef 5pts win @ 2/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Worst kept secret of the day but 2/1 remains just about fair. Uncle Keef ran an interesting race last time at Folkstone, losing his place before staying on again over 12 furlongs. His stamina laden pedigree demands this step up to 16 furlongs and he looks very well handicapped today if the potential of his last run is to be believed. He cost a few bob and should be a lot better than a 60 rated horse. George Baker takes over from Katia Scallan, and a win looks on the cards.
Monday April 19th
A frustrating day on Saturday and in the end we were just less than levels for the week. We were correct to take on Canford Cliffs, but Arcano was disappointing and there is a chance he has not trained on. Embsay Crag ran on to dead heat for second and land us the each-way money, but again he was unlucky in his run and did not quite get the strong pace he needs to set the race up for his strong finishing style.
One bet for today and I must say I really like our chances of a win.
6.40 Windsor Starclass 3pts each-way @ 8/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed - take early price)
NON RUNNER
Represents Walter Swinburn and ridden by stable jockey Adam Kirby. Swinburn had a very quiet year last year but seems to have hit the ground running with a 3/9 33% strike rate in March and 4/22 18% so far in April, both months returning a level stakes profit on all runners. Clearly they are in fine fettle, and they send the selection to contest a half decent, well contested Windsor maiden. I find it interesting she runs because Swinburn doesn't tilt at windmills and he must think she is capable of a good showing - it smacks to me of "let's see how good she is tonight", otherwise I'd expect to see her in a tinpot maiden at Wolves or Kempton at some stage.
Her only run was at Salisbury last October in a 7f maiden which has worked out pretty damn well. Sent off an unconsidered 66/1 shot, she displayed signs of greenness as she was tucked in from a wide draw in rear, a little keen, but she travelled very well and seemed to make ground on the leaders fairly readily. She was sent up the rail to make a challenge but, whether the jockey didn't want to send an inexperienced horse through what was a narrow gap, or whether she was blocked by another horse and not able to make the run through at all, she didn't take the gap up the rail and was allowed to come home in her own time under considerate handling. She actually received a really nice, educational ride and connections might well reap the benefits today. She has quite a bit of size about her and definitely has the scope to make a decent three year old. The Salisbury race has worked out well, the third followed up with a close 2/20 in a good Newmarket maiden, and the third posted an RPR of 81 when winning at Southwell. The eighth, who was 1 1/4 lengths behind Starclass, won a fair little Novice Stakes at Lingfield and is a fairly useable OR mid 70's type. All of which makes Straclass' performance look pretty good. I think she is an OR 80+ horse and in this field, I would go maximum if her progress from two to three and race fitness were assured. They are not, but I'm happy to have a decent each-way bet at what looks a fair price.
One bet for today and I must say I really like our chances of a win.
6.40 Windsor Starclass 3pts each-way @ 8/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed - take early price)
NON RUNNER
Represents Walter Swinburn and ridden by stable jockey Adam Kirby. Swinburn had a very quiet year last year but seems to have hit the ground running with a 3/9 33% strike rate in March and 4/22 18% so far in April, both months returning a level stakes profit on all runners. Clearly they are in fine fettle, and they send the selection to contest a half decent, well contested Windsor maiden. I find it interesting she runs because Swinburn doesn't tilt at windmills and he must think she is capable of a good showing - it smacks to me of "let's see how good she is tonight", otherwise I'd expect to see her in a tinpot maiden at Wolves or Kempton at some stage.
Her only run was at Salisbury last October in a 7f maiden which has worked out pretty damn well. Sent off an unconsidered 66/1 shot, she displayed signs of greenness as she was tucked in from a wide draw in rear, a little keen, but she travelled very well and seemed to make ground on the leaders fairly readily. She was sent up the rail to make a challenge but, whether the jockey didn't want to send an inexperienced horse through what was a narrow gap, or whether she was blocked by another horse and not able to make the run through at all, she didn't take the gap up the rail and was allowed to come home in her own time under considerate handling. She actually received a really nice, educational ride and connections might well reap the benefits today. She has quite a bit of size about her and definitely has the scope to make a decent three year old. The Salisbury race has worked out well, the third followed up with a close 2/20 in a good Newmarket maiden, and the third posted an RPR of 81 when winning at Southwell. The eighth, who was 1 1/4 lengths behind Starclass, won a fair little Novice Stakes at Lingfield and is a fairly useable OR mid 70's type. All of which makes Straclass' performance look pretty good. I think she is an OR 80+ horse and in this field, I would go maximum if her progress from two to three and race fitness were assured. They are not, but I'm happy to have a decent each-way bet at what looks a fair price.
Saturday April 17th
It seems some of you have not received today's mail, so this is a full rewrite because the original has vanished into the ether!
Firstly, we were unlucky yesterday, Scamperdale was sent off over 30/1 on betfair, trading 1.25 or 1/4 inside the final furlong before being collared close home.
Two for today.
4.15 Newbury Arcano 5pts win @ 11/4 (Generally, get guaranteed)
I can't have a horse who shows as much speed as Canford Cliffs over seven furlongs alongside a horse who has already beaten him over six furlongs, who is bound to improve for the step up in trip. The hype machine is out in force again and the word is Canford is working the house down and Arcano will need the run, but I'm not listening to it. Both horses are being prepared for their big day at the 2,000 guineas, both will come on for the run in my view. Arcano looks top class to me and is the more natural 7f/8f horse. Excellent value.
6.50 Doncaster Embsay Crag 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Totesport, guaranteed) E/W 2nd
Embsay Crag ran 8lb above his mark over course and distance last time out, and has only been put up 1lb by the handicapper for today. The excellent Ian Brennan takes over from Paul Mulrennan and claims an additional 5lb. I'm hoping Thunderstruck puts a good pace to the race, allowing the selection to get into it from the back of the field late on. Excellent each-way value.
Firstly, we were unlucky yesterday, Scamperdale was sent off over 30/1 on betfair, trading 1.25 or 1/4 inside the final furlong before being collared close home.
Two for today.
4.15 Newbury Arcano 5pts win @ 11/4 (Generally, get guaranteed)
I can't have a horse who shows as much speed as Canford Cliffs over seven furlongs alongside a horse who has already beaten him over six furlongs, who is bound to improve for the step up in trip. The hype machine is out in force again and the word is Canford is working the house down and Arcano will need the run, but I'm not listening to it. Both horses are being prepared for their big day at the 2,000 guineas, both will come on for the run in my view. Arcano looks top class to me and is the more natural 7f/8f horse. Excellent value.
6.50 Doncaster Embsay Crag 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Totesport, guaranteed) E/W 2nd
Embsay Crag ran 8lb above his mark over course and distance last time out, and has only been put up 1lb by the handicapper for today. The excellent Ian Brennan takes over from Paul Mulrennan and claims an additional 5lb. I'm hoping Thunderstruck puts a good pace to the race, allowing the selection to get into it from the back of the field late on. Excellent each-way value.
Friday April 16th
Disappointing stuff for us yesterday. We're four points in profit for the week,
which is ordinary form for us, we still have the weekend to come though.
Just one race of interest tonight.
8.00 Kempton
Relative Strength 3pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Scamperdale 1pt win @ betfair S.P.
Andrew Balding has an excellent record in middle distance races at
this track and
his Relative Strength makes plenty of appeal off a fair looking mark
tonight. In a
race contested by quite a few hold up horses, he is a prominent racer
and is drawn
best of all in stall ten to execute those tactics. Stand Guard might
take him on for
the lead but the selection does not need to lead outright, he simply
likes to be there
or thereabouts. He is one pound lower than his last winning mark and goes really
well fresh, at this time of year, at this track. Liam Keniry has been
booked to do
the light weight.
I'm happy to have a saver on Scamperdale at a bigger price, at betfair S.P. The
selection is often disregarded in the markets but make no bones he is
a very good
all weather horse on his day, and he is overpriced at present. He is
the sort who
could drift to any price you like on the exchanges and still win, as he did last
season when romping home under today's claimer at eleven furlongs here.
which is ordinary form for us, we still have the weekend to come though.
Just one race of interest tonight.
8.00 Kempton
Relative Strength 3pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Scamperdale 1pt win @ betfair S.P.
Andrew Balding has an excellent record in middle distance races at
this track and
his Relative Strength makes plenty of appeal off a fair looking mark
tonight. In a
race contested by quite a few hold up horses, he is a prominent racer
and is drawn
best of all in stall ten to execute those tactics. Stand Guard might
take him on for
the lead but the selection does not need to lead outright, he simply
likes to be there
or thereabouts. He is one pound lower than his last winning mark and goes really
well fresh, at this time of year, at this track. Liam Keniry has been
booked to do
the light weight.
I'm happy to have a saver on Scamperdale at a bigger price, at betfair S.P. The
selection is often disregarded in the markets but make no bones he is
a very good
all weather horse on his day, and he is overpriced at present. He is
the sort who
could drift to any price you like on the exchanges and still win, as he did last
season when romping home under today's claimer at eleven furlongs here.
Thursday April 15th
A fine say yesterday, 18pts profit on the day thanks to Red Jazz' handy win at 11/2, which was a ridiculous price as I said - win or lose. Prizefighting didn't like the ground in my opinion.
A damn fine card today again.
3.35 Newmarket Markazzi 2pts each-way @ 10/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
There's something about Elusive Pimpernel that made me take a mental note that I would oppose him as a three year old until he proved he had held his form over from his 2yo season. His physicality as a two year old, and style of racing, suggests to me that he could be vulnerable today and I'm not sure he is value at 5/4. Essentially we are looking for horses who will be ready to go today, and will have made good progress from two to three, and the chief contender amongst the rest of the field is Sir Michael Stoute's Markazzi. The selection confirmed his debut promise with a good win at Leicester (runner up franked form) and to be honest it looked as if Markhazzi had a few extra gears to go through. He was well suited by the good to firm ground that day:
"He's still a little bit immature but he did it nicely. he moved down to post beautifully so he liked this ground and he's got a super temperament, all he does is yawn and eat and he's a very nice horse" - Jimmy Scott, trainer's representative
If I was looking for a quote to reassure me that he was a three year old in the making, this was it. He followed up the maiden win with a down the field run in a sales race over seven furlongs at this course, but you can strike that form off as he was clearly disadvantaged by the draw. He was put away for the winter then, and makes his reappearance today in a race Stoute has won in recent years with King In Waiting and Addagio. Richard Hills takes the ride for his retained owner and I think 10/1 is a great each-way price. Most of these have to prove they've trained on well enough for Group company, and I'm not keen on the others at the top of the market - happy to back this fella at double figure odds.
7.10 Kempton Mirror Lad 5pts win @ 15/8 (Bet 365, guaranteed)
I'm hoping this drifts at some stage, but I think Mirror Lad is just about worth a bet at 15/8. He ran a nice race first time up when clearly well fancied, sent off joint fav for the Brocklesby. His rider used plenty of petrol to bag the rail, and he showed plenty of early dash before fading. He also probably raced on an unfavourable part of the track as for most of the contest the action developed up the middle. In a much weaker contest, he is the one to beat if he shows only normal improvement - he is drawn well and if the jockey judges the pace correctly, he may not see another horse.
A damn fine card today again.
3.35 Newmarket Markazzi 2pts each-way @ 10/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
There's something about Elusive Pimpernel that made me take a mental note that I would oppose him as a three year old until he proved he had held his form over from his 2yo season. His physicality as a two year old, and style of racing, suggests to me that he could be vulnerable today and I'm not sure he is value at 5/4. Essentially we are looking for horses who will be ready to go today, and will have made good progress from two to three, and the chief contender amongst the rest of the field is Sir Michael Stoute's Markazzi. The selection confirmed his debut promise with a good win at Leicester (runner up franked form) and to be honest it looked as if Markhazzi had a few extra gears to go through. He was well suited by the good to firm ground that day:
"He's still a little bit immature but he did it nicely. he moved down to post beautifully so he liked this ground and he's got a super temperament, all he does is yawn and eat and he's a very nice horse" - Jimmy Scott, trainer's representative
If I was looking for a quote to reassure me that he was a three year old in the making, this was it. He followed up the maiden win with a down the field run in a sales race over seven furlongs at this course, but you can strike that form off as he was clearly disadvantaged by the draw. He was put away for the winter then, and makes his reappearance today in a race Stoute has won in recent years with King In Waiting and Addagio. Richard Hills takes the ride for his retained owner and I think 10/1 is a great each-way price. Most of these have to prove they've trained on well enough for Group company, and I'm not keen on the others at the top of the market - happy to back this fella at double figure odds.
7.10 Kempton Mirror Lad 5pts win @ 15/8 (Bet 365, guaranteed)
I'm hoping this drifts at some stage, but I think Mirror Lad is just about worth a bet at 15/8. He ran a nice race first time up when clearly well fancied, sent off joint fav for the Brocklesby. His rider used plenty of petrol to bag the rail, and he showed plenty of early dash before fading. He also probably raced on an unfavourable part of the track as for most of the contest the action developed up the middle. In a much weaker contest, he is the one to beat if he shows only normal improvement - he is drawn well and if the jockey judges the pace correctly, he may not see another horse.
Wednesday April 14th
An excellent card at Newmarket today and must watch stuff from a seasonal point of view.
Keep an eye on Music Show in the Nell Gwyn, and Clive Brittain's Srda. Clifton Bridge looks interesting in the last, while Fuzzy Cat, Colonel Sherman and Harting Hill all look likely sorts at Kempton later tonight.
We'll be having two bets.
3.35 Newmarket Red Jazz 4pts win @ 11/2 (Stan James, guaranteed) WON
Represents the Barry Hills stable who have won this twice in recent years. Red Jazz looked a colt to follow when winning easily on his debut in a decent Windsor maiden this time last year. He followed up with a win at Ascot before bombing out at Royal Ascot behind Canford Cliffs. He did not run to form that day and was notably week in the market for most of the morning and pre-race. A few weeks later, he ran Arcano to within 3 1/2 lengths off level weights in the July Stakes, the winner, Orpen Grey and himself four lengths clear of the field. He got outpaced there before running on quite strongly and I am happy enough to take his stamina on trust for seven furlongs today on that basis and the fact that he is bred to be a miler. Seven furlongs with a midfield sit should be ideal, and if Michael Hills (not my favourite jock, but well capable and knows the horse) gives him the right ride I think he should win. I must admit I was quite excited when I seen 9/2 available this morning, I priced him up as an 11/4 shot myself and although we're only having four points on, I really like this is an excellent bet.
4.45 Newmarket Prizefighting 4pts win @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Made his debut in a decent Kempton maiden last backend and made an immediate impression, settled in midfield before making up giant strides in the closing stages to close down a gap of fully eight lengths to two good horses, eventually winning going away. This expensive son of Smart Strike was then sent to France for a Group 1 race only a few days later, and acquited himself well on ground that may not have been ideal. Providing he has done well over the winter, I reckon big things are in store for him this year. It is hard to tell just how good he is, but if he turns up here in the same form as at Kempton, he will definitely serve it up to the favourite. It's impossible to know how well he is until we see him on the track, but he looks such a good prospect I'm happy to have an interest at the price.
Keep an eye on Music Show in the Nell Gwyn, and Clive Brittain's Srda. Clifton Bridge looks interesting in the last, while Fuzzy Cat, Colonel Sherman and Harting Hill all look likely sorts at Kempton later tonight.
We'll be having two bets.
3.35 Newmarket Red Jazz 4pts win @ 11/2 (Stan James, guaranteed) WON
Represents the Barry Hills stable who have won this twice in recent years. Red Jazz looked a colt to follow when winning easily on his debut in a decent Windsor maiden this time last year. He followed up with a win at Ascot before bombing out at Royal Ascot behind Canford Cliffs. He did not run to form that day and was notably week in the market for most of the morning and pre-race. A few weeks later, he ran Arcano to within 3 1/2 lengths off level weights in the July Stakes, the winner, Orpen Grey and himself four lengths clear of the field. He got outpaced there before running on quite strongly and I am happy enough to take his stamina on trust for seven furlongs today on that basis and the fact that he is bred to be a miler. Seven furlongs with a midfield sit should be ideal, and if Michael Hills (not my favourite jock, but well capable and knows the horse) gives him the right ride I think he should win. I must admit I was quite excited when I seen 9/2 available this morning, I priced him up as an 11/4 shot myself and although we're only having four points on, I really like this is an excellent bet.
4.45 Newmarket Prizefighting 4pts win @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Made his debut in a decent Kempton maiden last backend and made an immediate impression, settled in midfield before making up giant strides in the closing stages to close down a gap of fully eight lengths to two good horses, eventually winning going away. This expensive son of Smart Strike was then sent to France for a Group 1 race only a few days later, and acquited himself well on ground that may not have been ideal. Providing he has done well over the winter, I reckon big things are in store for him this year. It is hard to tell just how good he is, but if he turns up here in the same form as at Kempton, he will definitely serve it up to the favourite. It's impossible to know how well he is until we see him on the track, but he looks such a good prospect I'm happy to have an interest at the price.
Tuesday April 13th
Glad we didn't bet yesterday, awful stuff in truth and some odd results.
Today's Pontefract meeting looks half decent, and we have one bet.
2.50 Pontefract Gay Mirage 2pts each-way @ 5/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
Michael Jarvis has an awesome 41% strike rate at Pontefract in the last five seasons, which improves to 8/19 42% with his three year olds. He sends Oaks entry Gay Mirage to contest the 1m2f 3yo maiden today, and she appears to have every chance of winning. The selection made her debut in a Nottingham maiden last November in what was only a fair contest, and she struggled to keep tabs on the leaders, but she did stay on quite eyecatchingly late in the contest over a trip of one mile, which is a little on the sharp side judging by her pedigree. She steps up to ten furlongs today and, if she has progressed over the winter, there is a good chance she will show much improved form. The opposition for the most part look pretty average, but Henry Cecil's Moose Morgan and Gosden's Zuider Zee look well up to winning a maiden, and along with the Mark Johnston newcomer who could be anything. The selection is drawn well to sit prominently in stall one, as many of Jarvis's do, and she gets a handy 5lb fillies allowance into the bargain. Her trainer seems to have found an ideal maiden to start her off here, and with his 3yo's going well already, Gay Mirage can provide him with another success in a race he won in 2006 with Hero Worship. She looks decent each-way value.
Today's Pontefract meeting looks half decent, and we have one bet.
2.50 Pontefract Gay Mirage 2pts each-way @ 5/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
Michael Jarvis has an awesome 41% strike rate at Pontefract in the last five seasons, which improves to 8/19 42% with his three year olds. He sends Oaks entry Gay Mirage to contest the 1m2f 3yo maiden today, and she appears to have every chance of winning. The selection made her debut in a Nottingham maiden last November in what was only a fair contest, and she struggled to keep tabs on the leaders, but she did stay on quite eyecatchingly late in the contest over a trip of one mile, which is a little on the sharp side judging by her pedigree. She steps up to ten furlongs today and, if she has progressed over the winter, there is a good chance she will show much improved form. The opposition for the most part look pretty average, but Henry Cecil's Moose Morgan and Gosden's Zuider Zee look well up to winning a maiden, and along with the Mark Johnston newcomer who could be anything. The selection is drawn well to sit prominently in stall one, as many of Jarvis's do, and she gets a handy 5lb fillies allowance into the bargain. Her trainer seems to have found an ideal maiden to start her off here, and with his 3yo's going well already, Gay Mirage can provide him with another success in a race he won in 2006 with Hero Worship. She looks decent each-way value.
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