A fine weekend which might have been ever better, King Raven was hammered in the betting from our 7/1 to 7/2, but despite looking the winner and trading 1.24 in running, My Matilda outstayed him in the end for another gritty success. She is developing into a progressive stayer over extreme trips.
An unsusual piece of advice today, in that we are recommending a multiple bet.
I've had my eye on all Barney Curley's entries since April 2009, when I noticed on Easter Monday that he had entered five horses to race, which is an unusual number for him to run in a day. I think he had two decent priced winners (big early prices) and a third not beaten that far in second. It dawned on me that he had tried to land a big coup with multiple horses and to some extent he did succeed, there were minor media reports of it the day after. I think part of Curley's idea was that, with the Irish National and loads of racing on that day, bookmakers interest would be deflected away from his coup. It worked for the most part.
Fast forward a year and Barney tried the same thing on the same day. However, bog like ground at Warwick lead to that meeting being called off, I think one or two of his runners were at that meeting, or the second horse may have been declared a non-runner, off the top of my head. In other words, any grand plans of a major coup were scuppered by the weather, although he did have one winner that day.
Clearly, the notion of landing a big coup with multiple horses on the one day for a large payout is something that Curley has had on his mind for a while, and I think today is the day.
He runs three horses. The first two have the profile of typical Curley gambles and run in the two amateur rider races at Wolves. An odd betting medium with which to land a gamble, you might think. But Barney has quite an edge here. He has booked Tom Queally's younger brother Declan to ride. Declan can claim 5lbs, but he has bundles of experience in point to points, bumpers, and over hurdles and fences. He won a bumper on a 25/1 shot the other day and has won in three chases. Curley gave him a spin around Wolves a couple of weeks ago on Sir Mozart, and it is plain to see he is better than almost every other amateur - he looks to be in the class of Simon Walker, top amateur, and he gets to claim 5lb. That's Barney's first edge, a jockey who will outride all but one of the opposition.
Both horses have come right down the weights, are very, very well handicapped on their best form, and were given a spin jumping on the same day a couple of months ago, presumably to give them an away day and help get them fit. This whole thing looks like a very well plotted gamble.
Declan's brother Tom Queally rides Agapanthus at Brighton. He is one of the horses who won on Easter Monday '09, posting an RPR of 77 off a rating of 63 that day. Today he runs in a weak enough contest off 65.
Barney is impossible to predict at times. However, what we do know is that he funds his whole operation by through his gambling - nobody knows how to land a punt better. It is possible we have caught him on the wrong day but I'm willing to take a small risk for a large outlay. American speed figure guru Andrew Beyer often says that one or two very large wins a year can mean the difference between profit and loss in that year. I definitely agree with him, and I often have a multiple bet if I fancy a few horses on one particular day. Some of my best wins have come from this type of bet. So today, I'm advising an each-way treble and doubles on Barney's three runners. Make absolutely sure that your bookmaker guarantees prices in multiple bets. I know Paddy Power, Stan James and Bet 365 do, I'm not sure about the rest but be absolutely sure to ask. I'm happy to lose a small amount on this bet, but I think it's likely that Curley's runners will shorten in price, perhaps dramatically, and go close to winning at the very least.
I wouldn't go around telling too many friends about this bet, if there is an unusual amount of public money pushing the prices down on these, this is one stable who will not think twice about pulling their horses out, or similar.
Recommendation:
Total of 4pts outlay on: 3 x doubles, 1 x each-way treble...
4.10 Brighton Agapanthus @ 13/2 WON @ 2/1f
5.00 Wolves Savaronola @ 4/1 WON @ 11/10f 36/1 double landed!!!
5.30 Wolves Sommersturn @ 7/2 -- these best prices guaranteed with Bet365
- - make sure to bet with a bookmaker who guarantees prices in multiple bets!!!
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