Our bet on Blue Maiden yesterday was pretty much ruined by the ground. There was no way for anyone to know that the stands rail would be so biased yesterday, and it turned the 1,000 Guineas into a bit of a joke. Jamie Spencer was furthest to the far rail on Blue Maiden and we had no chance at all.
Today is an extremely interesting day and we're confident of getting back on track. Some of our luck lately has been appalling and we're overdue a big day.
4.00 Kempton Mac's Power 2.5pts each-way @ 14/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed - Early Price Advised to all clients 7.00am)
Some poor lad or lass at Bet 365 was obviously let loose with a few sheets of paper and a calculator for the first time last night on the graveyard shift, when the regular crew were on the piss for the bank holiday weekend. Whoever it was will get a bollicking off a hungover head odds compiler today whether Mac's Power wins or loses. The 14/1 they chalked up about this fella last night, which was available until around 9am, was an absolute abomination of a rick, as I pointed out in our price alert e-mail.
Mac's Power is a very nicely bred, talented son of Exceed and Excel who has extensive strong Kempton form and closed out his 2009 firmly on the up and up with a fourth to the easy Lincoln winner Penitent, who dead heated with Stoic in that contest, a seven runner race not run to suit Mac's Power. The form of that contest is working out really well, with the Lincoln winner and group class Penitent the obvious starting point. The other dead-heater Stoic has since repeated his RPR of that night in a hot Meydan handicap, 103. Musleh, the third, has been disappointing but the fifth is now rated 93 after a flat win and won a couple of good hurdle races. Elliptical finished sixth and was only beaten a head by Tartan Gigha in an ultra competitive Newmarket handicap on Saturday. This and the fact that the pace was moderate leads me to believe Mac's Power is well handicapped with his mark of 85.
Then there's the Fanshawe factor. James Fanshawe has been in cracking form and as you all know is a trainer I have a lot of time for. No disrespect to P.J. O'Gorman, but I would be surprised if Fanshawe could not improve this horse still further. I'm not sure how he picked the horse up or the circumstances behind the transfer, but he does not tend to waste his time with bad horses. Mac's Power has a very fast cruising speed and this race has some pace to it, if Pat Cosgrave can get him settled in a mid to rear position with a little cover, I would hope to see him produced fast and late to land the spoils.
As a post-script, we were correct about the price at least - 13/2 is now the best available!
4.50 Beverley Carlito's Spirit 1pt each-way @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Have a look through Carlito's Spirit's win record and you'll see a pattern emerging pretty quickly. He does almost all his winning when drawn against a rail. After his last win, the groom said:
"He`s been unlucky. He tends to go right handed so the draw helped him as he had the rail. He appreciated the extra half furlong" - James Micklem, travelling head groom
So the plum rail draw at right-handed Beverley is just what he needs and gets today. He has dropped to a fair mark and although his stable are 4/67 this year, they are 1/1 at this track, with Dabber's Ridge, who also runs here, winning at 25/1 a week or two ago. 16/1 is too big.
5.05 Chepstow Dragonessa 1.5pts win @ 14/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed)
Represents Bryn Palling who does really well here. Dragonessa was another early price sting for us last autumn when we took 25/1 about her at Lingfield and she won at 10/1. I chalked her down as a potential Chepstow horse straight away - she races prominently, likes to be in front, and finds for pressure. Chepstow is a course where is often pays to race prominently. Her trainer has an excellent record at this track and 14/1 looks far too big, especially if a little more rain falls.
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