Saturday May 1st

Bombay Mist was a non-runner yesterday and 16/1 (advised) Night Lily grabbed second to put us nicely in profit for the day.



I'm very happy with our recent progress. The ones that aren't hitting the mark are generally worth following because we've spotted certain conditions that will improve their performance, and the big bets are going in. April is a tough time and was our only losing month last year, but I'm absolutely confident we're about to have our best flat season ever. I expect our best profits to come from the end of June onwards, as has been the pattern in recent years.

2,00 Guineas day is upon us, it's May 1st, summer is here and that means top class flat racing. It's a busy day for us.


2.15 Goodwood Rowan Tiger 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Stan James, Guaranteed)


A massive price on all known evidence from what I can see. Rowan Tiger is a progressive staying handicapper by Tiger Hill, a good stamina influence and a sire whose progeny tend to improve with age and distance. After rattling up an all-weather hat trick last autumn, including a 9/1 maximum bet for us, he was put away for the winter and reappeared in a half decent race at Kempton which was run at an absolute crawl. Pulling throughout the journey, Rowan Tiger did really well to hang in there and wasn't beaten far at the finish. That run should put him spot on fitness wise and the presence of Gargano, Relative Strength and a couple of other prominent racers should ensure a decent gallop on here. He likes to sit midfield and pounce fairly late on and I reckon this race will be run absolutely to suit him.


3.05 Newmarket - The 2,000 Guineas


Fencing Master 2pts win @ 15.5/1 (Betfair, already advised)


Divide 1pt as savers between Inler, Al Zir and Dick Turpin (currently 29/1, 21/1, 26/1 on Betfair respectively)


From our ante post write up, regarding Fencing Master:


For me Fencing Master has excellent claims for this contest. After a decent win first time out he ran a monster of a race in the Dewhurst, where I think he may still have been a little green. He got himself behind early on, not through a lack of pace, but he just seemed to be taken aback by the whole experience of taking on top class colts for the first time. He made extremely good progress in the middle of the race after having quite a bit of ground to make up, before his run flattened out a little near the finish and he had to settle for second. The fact that O'Brien sends him over as his second string bodes very well with regards to the question of whether he has wintered well, as does the string of group one and classic entries. I must say I like his sire, Oratorio, as a stallion as much as I liked him as a racehorse, his progeny so far seem to be even tempered, dependable and can be very classy - he has already sired Group 1 winners in both hemispheres. Looking at his breeding, Fencing Master possesses just a little more speed than his sire did, and a strong pace on the Rowley Mile will play right into his hands at this stage of his career. Colm O'Donoghue is a very capable pilot, and the 14/1+ still available on Betfair should be taken at this stage.


I'm also advising small savers on the above three mentioned. Dick Turpin is a straightforward, classy horse who ran straight and true to the line in the Greenham and overhauled another good one in Canford Cliffs. The champion jockey rides and I think he will stay. Al Zir represents a Godolphin team whose horses continue to go well and they are confident of a bold showing - he was a big two year old and should have trained on; Frankie Dettori rides and he is a big price. Inler represents John Best, who does NOT tilt at windmills. He is an excellent form student who knows full well when he has a good horse, and Inler impressed me in his recent work. He looks the type to surprise even though he has only won a maiden. I'm happy to have small savers on these three at big prices because I do not think the favourite, Canford Cliffs, and Awzaan represent much value at all and I'm happy to watch Elusive Pimpernel win at his odds.


All that said, I think Fencing Master is the definite value bet here.


3.40 Newmarket Spin Cycle 2pts each-way @ 14/1 (Stan James - 1/4 odds a place and price guaranteed)


Represents Bryan Smart who is renowned for training good sprinters and who won this race with a seasonal debutant in Captain Gerard a couple of years ago. Spin Cycle is a progressive course and distance winner who won first time out last year, and last time out posting a career best in beating some good sprinters. He appeals as the type to improve physically this season and I think he is very likely to be 100% fit and ready to go today. I think Amour Propre is short enough, and there are various question marks against the others in my opinion. I think 14/1 and 1/4 odds a place is fantastic value.