The biggest question I was faced with this morning was how to accommodate five selections in the one day, all of which really represent value. It is important that everyone sticks to the staking plans advised today because our outlay of sixteen points is on the large side for us - our average is 11pts. One winner puts us ahead for the day or Cpatain Macarry placing puts us around level - I'm hoping for a return on at least two of the selections. I've played win only apart from the 66/1 shot and if a few of you want to trade some of these off at just over 1/3 (I advise 1.36 in running, trade or perhaps save your stake), that might be a strategy that pays off.
3.10 Lingfield - Bullet Train 5pts win @ 11/4 (Generally, get guaranteed) WON
Proven form behind Myplacelater who franked it during the week despite not winning. Carried a lot of condition that day and the step up in trip and 100% fitness should see this stoutly bred Henry Cecil inmate improve enough to win here. Desert Myth is only a maiden winner and I'm not sure what he really achieved on debut, while the O'Brien pair don't look world beaters. The Cecil team target this contest and I think they have a great chance with Bullet Train who trades at a very fair 11/4 - I think he may go off shorter.
3.25 Ascot - The Victoria Cup - Captain Macarry 1pt each-way @ 66/1 (Stan James only - pays 5 places and price guaranteed)
As good a 66/1 shot as you're going to get, and why not back him each-way at these odds. Acquitted himself well in a very valuable handicap over course and distance last Autumn, and given that he was quite poorly drawn that day, he did well to go down by only 4 1/2 lengths. The Ascot going stick readings suggest that the centre of the track is the place to be today and he is drawn nicely in stall 12. He also fits the weight, ratings and age trends quite well. He made his season debut and debut for John Quinn in the Spring Cup at Donny but soft ground does not suit him and he didn't really show. It will serve to put a fitness edge on him, though. I find it very interesting that the Quinn stable paid 45,000stg for this horse from Bryan Smart's stable, the must reckon there is improvement to come off his mark of 89 and a look at some of his best runs on the all weather suggests the horse has the ability to run to a mark of around 97 on his best days. If Quinn can elicit a pound or two more improvement from that, say an RPR of 99, it leaves him around 10lb better than his current mark and puts him bang in there with a shout of winning this. The horse has showed all his best turf form on good to firm ground, and his obviously acts at Ascot. He is also a seven furlong specialist, and at 66/1 he looks a huge price and a big value each-way chance to run in the first five today.
4.55 Lingfield San Cassiano 3pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Represents the Beckett stable who remain in excellent form. San Cassiano was well backed on debut last year when winning what turned out to be a decent maiden quite comfortably, Beckett's juvenile's generally come on for their first run so I'm inclined to mark up that performance on that basis. His second run when third to Mon Cadeaux has worked out really well, and you can see he is staying on very strongly in the last 50yds and to be honest looks to be crying out for a seventh furlong. He gets that seven furlong trip today and Jim Crowley takes the ride. He is a big beast of a horse, so I'm quite happy that he carries top weight against inferior animals. This race does contain a few lurkers but apart from that there is not much strength in depth, and I'm not afraid of the Jarvis horse on previous form.
5.15 Nottingham Shayla 4pts win @ 11/2 (Paddy Power, Totesport, guaranteed) NON RUNNER
Represents the Alan Swinbank stable whose last runners have finished 1,2,2,1,1,7. Shayla was given a fairly easy time of it last time out at Catterick over seven furlongs, her jockey handled her considerately buried in the pack, before she stayed on near the finish. Indeed, she was eased around 100yds from home and I'm quite sure connections were aware that she qualified for a handicap mark after that run. She steps up one furlong in trip today, and she looks to be open to plenty improvement off a mark of 66. This contest looks winnable, and even though the form of her last run is not working out brilliantly, I fancy her to find enough here to land the spoils.
7.35 Thirsk Come And Go 3pts win @ 12/1 (Paddy Power, guaranteed) WON
Another from the Swinbank stable. Come And Go ran in a race last time where the first nine horses home were rater 80+, the selection being the lowest rated of those, off a mark of 76. Again, he was buried right out the back, have a look at the archive video. He starts to make a move with a couple of furlongs left but, rather than take a gap which would have left him in the clear on the wide outside, his jockey elects to send him to the inside where he finds a couple of horses in front of him to prevent him running on. I'm no conspiracy theorist, but I'll let you judge for yourself as to whether that was by accident or design. He finished really well and full of running, and I'm quite surprised the handicapper has dropped him a pound in the handicap to a mark of 75. Which, incidentally, entitles him to drop in class to 0-75 company, as he does today. Take a look at the favourite, French Art. The first 9 home in the race he won last time out were all rated 60-70, including Hit's Only Jude who reopposes. Come And Go only has to give him 2lb today. I think 12/1 is massive value and if we have a winner or two in the bag by the time this race goes off, I might even raise my stake.
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