Thursday, May 20, 2010

Thursday May 13th

No return yesterday but I'm quite positive about a couple of our selections. Two of them in particular (Zero and Mullionmileanhour) will be winning soon and we'll reap the benefits of them another day.

2.10 York - the Madison Stakes - Midday 6pts win @ 2/1 (Coral, William Hill - get guaranteed)

2pts double Midday @ 15/8, with Zacinto @ 3/1 (Lockinge stakes, Saturday - prices with Paddy Power)

An interesting contest at York today in the shape of the ten furlong Madison Stakes and I must say I think Midday is a huge price at 2/1 to beat Sariska, and hopefully the other two less fancied fillies, who have it to find on the book in my view.

I think the fact that Sariska is even favourite is lazy, reputation orientated bookmaking. She won the Irish Guineas easily on a bog, and has not been as progressive as Midday since then, nor as straightforward in my opinion. Nobody has mentioned that she has been tardy from the stalls on her last two runs and that would worry me as a possible sign of a filly souring. She does not have as much speed as Midday either - she had to be ridden on good to firm ground over 12 furlongs here and could get get close to Dar Re Mi who was giving her ten pounds. Today she steps back to ten furlongs on similar ground, why should she perform any better today under conditions which have not brought out the best in her in the past? Midday on the other hand likes good to firm ground, and seems to have developed into a proper ten furlong specialist. I'm hoping the following happens: Sariska is tardy from the stalls, Spencer rides her along to settle her in rear. Midday sits two lengths in front of her, three lengths off the Swinbank filly who will probably front run. Midday kicks first, and wins the race with her better speed. I think 2/1 is big.

I've also had a double with Zacinto and am advising you lot to do the same! He runs in the Lockinge stakes on Saturday and is a strong fancy of mine to win. The double pays 10.5/1 with Paddy Power and looks well worth 2pts.

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