Wednesday May 12th

Another cracking day yesterday with Capable Guest winning for us and 29pts profit in the bag.

Today, like Saturday, is one of those days where we need to accommodate a large number of selections with careful staking. Stick to the staking carefully.

2.40 York Bikini Babe 3pts win @ 9/1 (Bet 365, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)

A hard race to decipher but the top two in the market do not look bombproof. Henry Cecil's Aviate has stamina questions to answer and Aidan O'Brien's Cabaret represents a stable whose horses have yet to hit form. Bikini Babe has had this race as her target for quite a while:

Mark Johnston, trainer: "The handicapper dropped her 2lb for her run at Sandown and based on that she has a bit to find. I could have found easier races like the Lingfield Oaks Trial and the Chester race, but the Musidora is the race we planned during the winter and we have decided to stick with it. She is in very good form. She just has to run her race and she will be thereabouts."

I always say, horses are not robots. I can't express empirically any reason behind the selection's flop at Sandown last time out, and what I get from this quote is that her trainer can't either. She is a horse I've always had time for and her form behind Raihana looks very solid in my opinion. York can sometimes suit a front runner, so I'm hoping Joe Fanning sends her on in familiar Mark Johnston style, I can see a close finish as Cecil's comes to challenge but Bikini Babe, but the selection might pull out a bit more. Horses have on days and off days, and I reckon 9/1 here is a big price if the selection is up for it today.


3.10 York Mulleinmileanhour 3pts win @ 9/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)

Seven of the last ten horses to win this have had a previous run in the same season. The Newmarket race Mullionmileanhour was touched off in last time out often throws up the winner of this. The selection did not act well coming down the dip, and I think it cost him the race. York's flat track will suit much better today and I think 8/1 is big. Showcasing, Main Aim, and Starspangledbanner will probably come on for the run and they all look short to me. The draw is a question mark but John Best, one of the very few trainers whose opinion I respect from a betting perspective, had some interesting comments:

John Best, trainer: "His form with Equiano has been franked by the winner going in again at Newmarket. He is really well. I have always thought a lot of him. I don't know about his draw in 12, but I would rather be there than on the other side."

A big price at 8/1 in my opinion.

4.10 Fontwell Zero 5pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

A horse we had a large bet on last time out, at Chepstow on Grand National day last year, when he flopped. His previous win at Ascot seemed to suggest he could be a very high class hurdler, but injury has gotten in the way. I must say I do like backing Emma Lavelle's horses after a long break, she knows how to get them fit first time up. I think Zero will be ready for today's test, I reckon this is another excellent piece of placement, similar to Mick Channon yesterday, and he is far superior to these horses on the assumption, and it's a big one, that he retains his ability.

7.00 Bath Spinning Waters 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Check out Mark Winstanley tipping this one up on RPTV, funny stuff. Plenty of merit in it though. Richard Hughes takes the ride for in-form Eve Johnson-Houghton, and the selection comes from a family she knows well who improve with time and distance. Looks well handicapped and goes well fresh, won first time out last season. In a fairly average contest, this looks like the one horse who could be ten pound better than its current handicap mark.