Again yesterday both selections ran really well and outperformed the prices we got them at, but did not put hard cash in our pockets. From time to time I utter the old phrase, "losing runs are a part of value betting, and have to be expected" but I have to say I do feel yer pain as paying clients. The last couple of weeks have been especially tough on us and we've had nothing in the way of a lucky break. We've backed a number of horses who I have no doubt will win one or more races this year - the likes of yesterday's second Emerald Glade, Poppets Lovein, Mac's Power, Parc Des Princes, even the withdrawn pair Starclass and Tappanappa... but they just aren't putting their heads in front for us at the minute. Most of my income comes from betting, so I'm as brassed off as you lot must be. I'm casting my mind also back to Scamperdale (we got 30/1, traded long odds on) and Aultcharn (9/1, traded long odds on), I'd be the first to hold my hand up if the selections were piss poor, but the reality is that they are as well thought out as ever, all represent value in my eyes, but they're not winning. I just try to work twice as hard in these situations, rather than reacting in an emotional way.
For the record Emerald Glade was beaten into second yesterday, a stewards was called but we were never likely to get the race. A little bit of luck like that can make all the difference with a 12/1 shot. Jamie Spencer was awful on Poppets Lovein in my opinion, he gets bashed a lot but to be fair, he seems extremely one dimensional. Why did he hold up Wigmore Hall in a 5 runner race run at a crawl at the weekend? I've often seen Fallon get a horse into a midfield position when that happens and he is on the best horse, and win the race narrowly. Spencer sat there like a divvy and got done on the line by the front runner. Last night, he held the selection, who had bundles of tactical speed, up in rear in a seven runner race on a speed favouring track. She made loads of ground but was basically given too much to do. Watch the replay - had he sat in second or third last position, instead of slightly detatched, he would probably have won. The sad truth for him is that he was outridden by a very inexperienced 7lb claimer who kept it simple. Surely if he ever wants to challenge for the championship again, he will have to have a hard look at his tactics?
On to today.
2.15 Chester Myplacelater 6pts win @ 3/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes, Boylesports, guaranteed)
This horse has by far and away the best form in this field. She beat a decent field of colts last time out at Newbury in a time two seconds faster than co-favourite Gertrude Bell won the maiden over the same distance on the same card. The mark of a really good filly is her ability up against the colts, and it's no coincidence that Light Shift (2007, went on to win the Oaks) and High Heeled (2009, went on to win the Oaks) have won this race in the past few years. Myplacelater won going away at the line, and confirmed herself a high class filly in the process. The only horse to race since, Gardening Leave, was the horse who beat the Spencer ridden Wigmore Hall at the weekend. He finished 5th behind the selection, but won at the weekend posting an RPR of 104 in the process. The only previous time she ran over ten furlongs, she was beaten a shortening short head by the Hannon-trained Middle Club. He has since finished second in a Group 3, and is now rated 108. The third posted an RPR of 94 when fifth in a very good Newmarket contest at the weekend. The fourth has since been beaten on the nod in a German listed race, and run fifth in the German 1,000 Guineas. Myplacelater is bred to appreciate middle distances, and on the evidence of her Newbury run, eleven furlongs should only improve her. The opposition today really do not look up to much - she has beaten better colts already this season. If she turns up in the same form today, she should really win this barring one of the others finding massive improvement from nowhere. The O'Brien horse is 4/1 but she has done absolutely nothing, Gosden's has two seconds to make up on the clock. 3/1 looks too big. If she is impressive in winning today, she will shorten for the Oaks even though she is not entered. Elsworth would probably supplement her, and the 120/1 available on Betfair might look big in time.
4.45 Southwell Dubai Phantom 3pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
David Simcock is making a habit of improving his three year olds as they step up in trip, and his Dubai Phantom looks a case in point in the eleven furlong contest at Southwell today. His third run in a maiden was very promising, he came around the houses and galloped on to the line under fairly tender handling. I'm not sure the jockey was giving him the hardest cracks with the whip either - have a look at the replay, it just doesn't look like there's a hell of a lot of contact being made! The Gosden second favourite won a very poor maiden here, and Hughie Morrison's On Khee is not guaranteed to enjoy the surface. The form of her Folkstone win is also working out very poorly. Dubai Phantom looks to me like he'll love galloping away on this fibresand, his bred to be a lot better than a 66 rated handicapper, and he should improve as he goes up in trip. Martin Lane is good value for his 3lb claim and if he's in there battling away at the top of the straight, I think he'll keep rolling right until the line and might cause a minor upset.
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