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Friday, July 30, 2010
Saturday 29th May
A brilliant day yesterday with two winners from two bets, at 3/1 and 5/1. We had a nice wedge on each of them (5pts) and that puts us well in front for the week. I have to say, our staking is holding us in really good stead. All we really do is play the percentages, turn the book in our favour, and it is so important to follow correct stakes with value betting. We're miles ahead from last week, so a few losers earlier in the week shouldn't have hurt anyone. Funny, I usually get a dozen e-mails when we get a winner but yesterday nothing, even though we had two winners. I hope everyone got on despite the unfortunate lack of analysis? Let me know!! It's not praise were after, it's just to know you're benefiting!!
On to today, one bet which is twice the price it should be.
2.45 Newmarket San Cassiano 3pts each-way @ 20/1 (Stan James, Guaranteed)
I just love backing horses with a big fat zero next to their name, with an obvious excuse for the zero that bookmakers haven't cottoned on to. San Cassiano had no chance from his draw last time out, that day where the Lingfield rail ended up like a golden highway. He was given a fairly easy time of it when it became clear he had no chance. Today he steps up to a mile which I believe is a positive, he will strip fitter, and is drawn just fine in stall 4. His 2yo form is stacking up really well and he is a strapping big horse - I'm happy he is carrying to weight against inferior rivals. I thought this fella would be 10/1 this morning so Stan James do look to be going out on a limb offering up 20's. I've had a decent each-way bet with some of yesterday's winnings.
On to today, one bet which is twice the price it should be.
2.45 Newmarket San Cassiano 3pts each-way @ 20/1 (Stan James, Guaranteed)
I just love backing horses with a big fat zero next to their name, with an obvious excuse for the zero that bookmakers haven't cottoned on to. San Cassiano had no chance from his draw last time out, that day where the Lingfield rail ended up like a golden highway. He was given a fairly easy time of it when it became clear he had no chance. Today he steps up to a mile which I believe is a positive, he will strip fitter, and is drawn just fine in stall 4. His 2yo form is stacking up really well and he is a strapping big horse - I'm happy he is carrying to weight against inferior rivals. I thought this fella would be 10/1 this morning so Stan James do look to be going out on a limb offering up 20's. I've had a decent each-way bet with some of yesterday's winnings.
Friday 28th May
Having some internet difficulties today guys, analysis will follow hopefully before 2pm.
Two bets.
2.00 Brighton Avrilo, 5pts win @ 3/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)Won
4.50 Brighton Buxton 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, Get guaranteed)Won
Two bets.
2.00 Brighton Avrilo, 5pts win @ 3/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)Won
4.50 Brighton Buxton 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, Get guaranteed)Won
Thursday 27th May
Still yet to find a winner this week, but our staking has been excellent if you review it, we lost only 4pts yesterday and one or two winners will pretty much change the complexion of the week.
We called Shaluca really well and she ran nicely in second, briefly challenging but the fav was too good. We called the 8.00 race really well but it was the 25/1 outsider who surprised the top two and not Living It Large.
2.00 Wolves Sooraah 3pts each-way @ 8/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed)
Was noted travelling extremely well throughout a fair Newbury maiden on debut, last of the bridle having expended plenty of energy tacking across from a wide draw, and given no cover during the race. She also changed her legs when asked for maximum effort, and it was this greenness and possibly dislike for the fastish ground that cost her momentum and she was allowed to come home in her own time. Being out of Dubawi, she should appreciate this artificial surface and should put in a much improved performance today. The favourite is underpriced because of the race she ran in - she was off the bridle early, however, and showed only a fair amount of promise. I think Sooraah could be the best horse in this race, she is drawn well and represents a stable beginning to find their best form. Confident each-way choice, the only downside is I'm wondering why she has been off the track for over a month after her debut - but she gets the benefit of the doubt this time.
5.30 Wolves Dauntsey Park 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, guaranteed)E/W 2nd
Have a look at the draw and pace bias for this horse's penultimate run at Lingfield, when he was beaten by Lisahane Bog. The selection defied the widest draw on a day when strong gales played havoc with the horses and helped create a marked low draw bias, there was also a strong pace bias and front runners were mopping up - he came from rear to finish sixth. The first six were well clear, the front pair have developed into decent handicappers and all of the first five have won since. Dauntsey Park reappeared at Windsor earlier this month and travelled ominously well before fading. Whether it was the firm ground or lack of fitness I don't know, but he was allowed to come home under hands and heels. It's well known that Tor Sturgis has a decent all weather gallop, she has excellent strike rates at all the Polytrack courses (18% here) and the selection may improve for the return to it today. Ross Atkinson takes 5lb off what may already be a lenient mark and this looks a very, very eye catching 20/1 shot.
We called Shaluca really well and she ran nicely in second, briefly challenging but the fav was too good. We called the 8.00 race really well but it was the 25/1 outsider who surprised the top two and not Living It Large.
2.00 Wolves Sooraah 3pts each-way @ 8/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed)
Was noted travelling extremely well throughout a fair Newbury maiden on debut, last of the bridle having expended plenty of energy tacking across from a wide draw, and given no cover during the race. She also changed her legs when asked for maximum effort, and it was this greenness and possibly dislike for the fastish ground that cost her momentum and she was allowed to come home in her own time. Being out of Dubawi, she should appreciate this artificial surface and should put in a much improved performance today. The favourite is underpriced because of the race she ran in - she was off the bridle early, however, and showed only a fair amount of promise. I think Sooraah could be the best horse in this race, she is drawn well and represents a stable beginning to find their best form. Confident each-way choice, the only downside is I'm wondering why she has been off the track for over a month after her debut - but she gets the benefit of the doubt this time.
5.30 Wolves Dauntsey Park 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Generally, guaranteed)E/W 2nd
Have a look at the draw and pace bias for this horse's penultimate run at Lingfield, when he was beaten by Lisahane Bog. The selection defied the widest draw on a day when strong gales played havoc with the horses and helped create a marked low draw bias, there was also a strong pace bias and front runners were mopping up - he came from rear to finish sixth. The first six were well clear, the front pair have developed into decent handicappers and all of the first five have won since. Dauntsey Park reappeared at Windsor earlier this month and travelled ominously well before fading. Whether it was the firm ground or lack of fitness I don't know, but he was allowed to come home under hands and heels. It's well known that Tor Sturgis has a decent all weather gallop, she has excellent strike rates at all the Polytrack courses (18% here) and the selection may improve for the return to it today. Ross Atkinson takes 5lb off what may already be a lenient mark and this looks a very, very eye catching 20/1 shot.
Wednesday 26th May
Barney's pair had an off (or not off, as the case may be...!) day yesterday, but as I mentioned, he owes us nothing.
Wednesday already, we've had little in the way of ammunition so far this week with dire racing and nothing much sticking out in the way of value. We're eight points to the negative for the week which is very little on our scale, but I think that should change today as we have three decent opportunities at Beverley.
6.30 Beverley Shaluca 3pts each-way @ 7/1 (Stan James, Paddy Power, guaranteed)
Showed loads of promise on her debut in a half decent contest last year when she tried to make most of the running over a mile, pulling hard and only running out of puff and being overhauled late on after a game performance. She was stepped up in trip next time but disappointed after pulling too hard again and it may be that a mile trips up to a mile will prove to be her optimum. A stiff 7f 100yds looks a step in the right direction today and she finds herself in a contest that is much weaker than it looks. The odds on fav duelled with a Stoute horse last time out and was just done on the line but the form has not worked out, nor did I rate her Windsor race very highly. I have analysed the second favourite's debut and I think everyone should take a look at it - it's pretty much a bunch for the minors and she never actually passes any of the horses around her when she "stays on". She did not impress with her head carriage either. Linda Stubbs' horse looks best of the rest and unless Richard Fahey's improves from nowhere, or Clive Brittain's newcomer is exceptional, the selection looks likely to go close to winning if fully tuned up. She has the favourite to beat in my view and it could be pretty close between the pair.
8.00 Beverley Living It Large 3pts win @ 6/1 (Stan James, Paddy Power, guaranteed)
The favourite likes holding up here, and if any of you like to back Jamie Spencer on hold up horses in four runner races at a shade of odds on, give me a bell because I'll give you best price! Living It Large is a progressive front runner who unfortunately is drawn 1, but if Tony Hamilton can tack him across and grab the lead, I think this race is his for the taking. He is priced up on his official rating in my view, but I reckon that's lazy bookmaking because he ran 5lbs above that last time out and that leaves him very little to find with the other market principals here. The Fahey horse makes his seasonal debut, and the fav is the hold up horse. These both rate as negatives against their chances in my view and with the benefit of a run in a very hot conditions race at York, Living It Large is taken to show that he remains progressive, he may be worth trading in running at a shade of odds on for those of you who wish to lock in a profit.
8.30 Beverley Raleigh Quay 2pts win @ 20/1 (generally, guaranteed)
Represents Mickey Hammond whose stable is in fine form and whose horses tend to run well on firm ground. The selection looked a right battler when winning over seven furlongs at Musselburgh last year and looked completely at odds with the left handed track at Pontefract next time out, when we was well supported but bombed out after blowing the turn. It is interesting he is sent to Beverley, a right handed track, with a stiff finish that should allow his stamina to come into play - he is stepped up in trip here and looked a right galloper even over shorter last year. He is drawn seven of seven and I hope he makes all.
Wednesday already, we've had little in the way of ammunition so far this week with dire racing and nothing much sticking out in the way of value. We're eight points to the negative for the week which is very little on our scale, but I think that should change today as we have three decent opportunities at Beverley.
6.30 Beverley Shaluca 3pts each-way @ 7/1 (Stan James, Paddy Power, guaranteed)
Showed loads of promise on her debut in a half decent contest last year when she tried to make most of the running over a mile, pulling hard and only running out of puff and being overhauled late on after a game performance. She was stepped up in trip next time but disappointed after pulling too hard again and it may be that a mile trips up to a mile will prove to be her optimum. A stiff 7f 100yds looks a step in the right direction today and she finds herself in a contest that is much weaker than it looks. The odds on fav duelled with a Stoute horse last time out and was just done on the line but the form has not worked out, nor did I rate her Windsor race very highly. I have analysed the second favourite's debut and I think everyone should take a look at it - it's pretty much a bunch for the minors and she never actually passes any of the horses around her when she "stays on". She did not impress with her head carriage either. Linda Stubbs' horse looks best of the rest and unless Richard Fahey's improves from nowhere, or Clive Brittain's newcomer is exceptional, the selection looks likely to go close to winning if fully tuned up. She has the favourite to beat in my view and it could be pretty close between the pair.
8.00 Beverley Living It Large 3pts win @ 6/1 (Stan James, Paddy Power, guaranteed)
The favourite likes holding up here, and if any of you like to back Jamie Spencer on hold up horses in four runner races at a shade of odds on, give me a bell because I'll give you best price! Living It Large is a progressive front runner who unfortunately is drawn 1, but if Tony Hamilton can tack him across and grab the lead, I think this race is his for the taking. He is priced up on his official rating in my view, but I reckon that's lazy bookmaking because he ran 5lbs above that last time out and that leaves him very little to find with the other market principals here. The Fahey horse makes his seasonal debut, and the fav is the hold up horse. These both rate as negatives against their chances in my view and with the benefit of a run in a very hot conditions race at York, Living It Large is taken to show that he remains progressive, he may be worth trading in running at a shade of odds on for those of you who wish to lock in a profit.
8.30 Beverley Raleigh Quay 2pts win @ 20/1 (generally, guaranteed)
Represents Mickey Hammond whose stable is in fine form and whose horses tend to run well on firm ground. The selection looked a right battler when winning over seven furlongs at Musselburgh last year and looked completely at odds with the left handed track at Pontefract next time out, when we was well supported but bombed out after blowing the turn. It is interesting he is sent to Beverley, a right handed track, with a stiff finish that should allow his stamina to come into play - he is stepped up in trip here and looked a right galloper even over shorter last year. He is drawn seven of seven and I hope he makes all.
Tuesday 25th May
A six point loss yesterday, Shayla was a non runner.
Awful stuff today, but I'm going to advise a 2pt double on Barney Curley's two runners at Lingfield. Both have the profile of horses likely to be well supported and if the shorter one of the pair obliges in the first race, I'd advise everyone to lay the double off if the second one is hammered in the betting, in order to net yourself a profit whatever the outcome. We had a 36/1 double two weeks ago on Barney's big day so he owes us nothing, many of you laid the treble off at 1/2 before the 5.30 race that day too.
Recommendation:
4.30 Lingfield Sir Mozart @ 2/1, 5.00 Lingfield Securitisation @ 10/3 - 2pts double (Paddy Power, guaranteed)
Awful stuff today, but I'm going to advise a 2pt double on Barney Curley's two runners at Lingfield. Both have the profile of horses likely to be well supported and if the shorter one of the pair obliges in the first race, I'd advise everyone to lay the double off if the second one is hammered in the betting, in order to net yourself a profit whatever the outcome. We had a 36/1 double two weeks ago on Barney's big day so he owes us nothing, many of you laid the treble off at 1/2 before the 5.30 race that day too.
Recommendation:
4.30 Lingfield Sir Mozart @ 2/1, 5.00 Lingfield Securitisation @ 10/3 - 2pts double (Paddy Power, guaranteed)
Monday 24th May
Three for today and hopefully we can get close to last weeks exploits; today is a day for small stakes though, I feel all the below horses are overpriced for one reason or another and one winner will put us in front for the day.
3.45 Carlisle Shalya 3pts win @ 7/1 (Betfred, Totesport, guaranteed)Non Runner
Was given a very easy time of it at Catterick, where she was outpaced over seven furlongs. We supported her last time when she was stepped up in trip but she was withdrawn having been very well supported. This race looks equally as mediocre as the last one, and I think she will show improved form stepped up in trip here. Alan Swinbank remains in decent form, the stake is only three points because the Catterick race has worked out poorly. I still feel there is plenty of ability there and 7/1 is too big, she looks a 5/1 shot in this race to me.
6.40 Windsor Yabtree 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
Represents Roger Charlton whose three year olds have been in good form. I'm a little surprised Hugh Taylor hasn't put this one up this morning given that he was the first to highlight the strong rails bias at Lingfield on the day that Yabtree ran there. The selection was sent off 8/1 and pulled far too hard, and ended up in no mans land towards the outside of the rails bunch, closer to the middle of the course than was beneficial. Everything that raced on the rail showed up well in the finish, but the selection bombed out due to a combination of bad track position and pulling too hard. The thing is, he has pulled too hard before so it seems to be an ongoing issue. I'm hoping that with the seasonal debut behind him and the freshness taken out of him, Yabtree will settle better and we'll get to see what he has up his sleeve in the finish. He actually put his head down and battled on really well at Lingers, and the handicapper has dropped him a handy 2lb for that. He has every chance here off 68 and 14/1 is too big, he should be 8/1 or 9/1 in my opinion.
6.55 Thirsk Sarwin 2pts win @ 18/1, Im Frank 2pts win @ 11/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
Nice one Hugh Taylor for making the prices for us here. Hugh is correct in his assessment of Shadowtime, he has the strongest form in this race and deserves to be favourite, but he is now a false price in my opinion. I thought it was very interesting that Alan Swinbank entered two horses here, because he trains Come And Go, who beat Shadowtime and landed us a 12/1 winner last time out over this course and distance. Clearly, Swinbank has an excellent line on the form and I'm intrigued by the double entry.
Sarwin looks the one with the strongest claims on paper. He came to hand this time year and defeated Shadowtime narrowly at one stage before the pair improved (off better terms). Swinbank will also be aware of the recent pace bias at Thirsk and the strong travelling Sarwin is likely to be prominent throughout. His recent form doesn't look great but a more thorough analysis suggests he didn't have conditions in his favour.
I'm Frank is a handicap debutant, as was Come And Go when he won over course and distance. He was never happy at Hamilton last time out and the step back in trip (pulled hard) and bigger field will suit in my opinion. A mark of 68 doesn't look lenient on the book but as I said, his trainer has a good line on the form and it is possible he is a bit better than he has already showed.
3.45 Carlisle Shalya 3pts win @ 7/1 (Betfred, Totesport, guaranteed)Non Runner
Was given a very easy time of it at Catterick, where she was outpaced over seven furlongs. We supported her last time when she was stepped up in trip but she was withdrawn having been very well supported. This race looks equally as mediocre as the last one, and I think she will show improved form stepped up in trip here. Alan Swinbank remains in decent form, the stake is only three points because the Catterick race has worked out poorly. I still feel there is plenty of ability there and 7/1 is too big, she looks a 5/1 shot in this race to me.
6.40 Windsor Yabtree 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
Represents Roger Charlton whose three year olds have been in good form. I'm a little surprised Hugh Taylor hasn't put this one up this morning given that he was the first to highlight the strong rails bias at Lingfield on the day that Yabtree ran there. The selection was sent off 8/1 and pulled far too hard, and ended up in no mans land towards the outside of the rails bunch, closer to the middle of the course than was beneficial. Everything that raced on the rail showed up well in the finish, but the selection bombed out due to a combination of bad track position and pulling too hard. The thing is, he has pulled too hard before so it seems to be an ongoing issue. I'm hoping that with the seasonal debut behind him and the freshness taken out of him, Yabtree will settle better and we'll get to see what he has up his sleeve in the finish. He actually put his head down and battled on really well at Lingers, and the handicapper has dropped him a handy 2lb for that. He has every chance here off 68 and 14/1 is too big, he should be 8/1 or 9/1 in my opinion.
6.55 Thirsk Sarwin 2pts win @ 18/1, Im Frank 2pts win @ 11/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
Nice one Hugh Taylor for making the prices for us here. Hugh is correct in his assessment of Shadowtime, he has the strongest form in this race and deserves to be favourite, but he is now a false price in my opinion. I thought it was very interesting that Alan Swinbank entered two horses here, because he trains Come And Go, who beat Shadowtime and landed us a 12/1 winner last time out over this course and distance. Clearly, Swinbank has an excellent line on the form and I'm intrigued by the double entry.
Sarwin looks the one with the strongest claims on paper. He came to hand this time year and defeated Shadowtime narrowly at one stage before the pair improved (off better terms). Swinbank will also be aware of the recent pace bias at Thirsk and the strong travelling Sarwin is likely to be prominent throughout. His recent form doesn't look great but a more thorough analysis suggests he didn't have conditions in his favour.
I'm Frank is a handicap debutant, as was Come And Go when he won over course and distance. He was never happy at Hamilton last time out and the step back in trip (pulled hard) and bigger field will suit in my opinion. A mark of 68 doesn't look lenient on the book but as I said, his trainer has a good line on the form and it is possible he is a bit better than he has already showed.
Saturday 22nd May
We bucked a recent trend yesterday with none of our selections managing a win!
We've had one of our best weeks ever, and hopefully the Irish 2,000 Guineas winner will be the icing on the cake. There is a small chance of a bet tomorrow, but if you don't hear anything by 11am presume no bets.
3.45 Curragh - The Irish 2,000 Guineas - Fencing Master 3pts each-way @ 5/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Ladbrokes, guaranteed and 1/4 odds per place paid)
A solid renewal of the Irish 2,000. I have to say Canford Cliffs surprised me in the English 2,000 but if you look at the last 100 yards he was not making any inroads on the winner and there is no reason why he should improve on that performance today, having already had a pipe opener in the Greenham. I can't have Steinbeck, who makes his seasonal reappearance. I really don't know why he is such a short price, during the week he was only a probable runner and Aidan has stated that he will come on for the run. Clearly he is a very talented animal if he wins this first time out. My money here is on Fencing Master, who almost certainly needed the run in the English Guineas, both from a physical and mental point of view. I actually think he ran a fine race, sitting in third until around two furlongs out when race fitness seemed to become an issue, and staying on for seventh place in the end. He also done a lot more donkey work than, say, St. Nicholas Abbey who finished 6th and was allowed to creep into the race. I would like to see Colm O'Donoghue give him a midfield sit today, and let him gallop his way into contention before giving him the office around the two furlong pole. With a host of Ballydoyle pacemakers, there should be enough speed on that he does not get done for toe. Xtension is a danger, but the stable are out of form and he has had to travel over from England. Oasis Dancer would be a good each-way outsider and the course will suit him well, but I'm not sure he is a Group 1 horse. Fencing Master is, I maintain it takes a very good horse to finish second in the Dewhurst on his second start, and he has everything in his favour today to round of a seasonal best week for us.
We've had one of our best weeks ever, and hopefully the Irish 2,000 Guineas winner will be the icing on the cake. There is a small chance of a bet tomorrow, but if you don't hear anything by 11am presume no bets.
3.45 Curragh - The Irish 2,000 Guineas - Fencing Master 3pts each-way @ 5/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Ladbrokes, guaranteed and 1/4 odds per place paid)
A solid renewal of the Irish 2,000. I have to say Canford Cliffs surprised me in the English 2,000 but if you look at the last 100 yards he was not making any inroads on the winner and there is no reason why he should improve on that performance today, having already had a pipe opener in the Greenham. I can't have Steinbeck, who makes his seasonal reappearance. I really don't know why he is such a short price, during the week he was only a probable runner and Aidan has stated that he will come on for the run. Clearly he is a very talented animal if he wins this first time out. My money here is on Fencing Master, who almost certainly needed the run in the English Guineas, both from a physical and mental point of view. I actually think he ran a fine race, sitting in third until around two furlongs out when race fitness seemed to become an issue, and staying on for seventh place in the end. He also done a lot more donkey work than, say, St. Nicholas Abbey who finished 6th and was allowed to creep into the race. I would like to see Colm O'Donoghue give him a midfield sit today, and let him gallop his way into contention before giving him the office around the two furlong pole. With a host of Ballydoyle pacemakers, there should be enough speed on that he does not get done for toe. Xtension is a danger, but the stable are out of form and he has had to travel over from England. Oasis Dancer would be a good each-way outsider and the course will suit him well, but I'm not sure he is a Group 1 horse. Fencing Master is, I maintain it takes a very good horse to finish second in the Dewhurst on his second start, and he has everything in his favour today to round of a seasonal best week for us.
Friday 21st May
Another really good day yesterday with Sea Of Heartbreak winning, we had 4/1 minus a 10c rule 4 off the top of my head. Leader Of The Land got beaten by a short head, and Desert Icon showed some promise. Around 17pts profit on the day.
Three races of interest today.
3.00 Yarmouth Big Sur 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
Represents a trainer with an awful 0/33 record a this track in the last five seasons. Much has been made about Big Sur's breeding (related to Seta) and he has showed on more than one occasion hints of ability that suggest he is a good bit better than a 59 rated handicapper. However, he has yet to truly convince on the track and is priced up on ability rather than achievement to some extent. I'm keeping the faith, though. I think a galloping mile like Yarmouths is probably a step in the right direction for this horse. He has a fine big stride and has tended to pull hard in his races, last time over ten furlongs included. If he has come on fitness wise for that run, and enjoys today's race conditions more than Lingfields tight turns, I believe he can prove himself a very well handicapped horse. There are some fairly poor performers in here and he should go very close this time. His stable have had a couple of horses outperform their odds in the last few days, they look to be running into some form and 8/1 might look bit post race today. A word on Djalalabad, I remain convinced she will pick up a race for Jeff Pearce but I'm not sure she let herself down on the ground last time (good to firm like today) and I think a mile stretches her.
4.00 Yarmouth Angelo Poliziano 2pts win @ 12/1, Rough Rock 2pts win @ 9/1 (Both generally, guaranteed)
Huge prices for this pair. Angelo Poliziano is a real interesting one, as a horse who acts around Catterick and probably could have contested a six furlong contest there today. Instead Ann Duffield sends him to Yarmouth for this five furlong contest, and has booked the excellent Pat Cosgrave to ride. The selection made up loads of ground last time out in a contest where a progressive front runner landed the spoils. He suffered a wide trip too and I was surprised he ran so well on his seasonal debut. The stable have been out of form but expect a batch of winners any day soon, the signs are that Ann's string are getting there and May and June last year was a golden period for her stable.
Rough Rock has won two of his last three and strikes me as a horse who is still well ahead of the handicapper. He travels supremely well in his races and I'm taken aback by the spotlight comments that suggest the drop back might be a negative - this horse has bundles of pace. Michael Murphy gets on well with him and has looked well worth his seven pound claim in recent races.
6.30 Haydock Parc Des Princes 3pts win @ 9/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
Bombed out last time at Windsor in a better race than this, but deserves a second chance in my opinion. He travelled quite well before hanging and fading out of contention, but he may simply have needed the race. The Balding stable continue in excellent form and seem to have targeted these races with a couple of different 7lb apprentices so far this year. I seen this lad Francis Hayes ride a 100/1 shot at Lingers the other day and he looks quite polished, if a little brave! This race looks poor and to be honest I think with the favourite Ghufa looks beatable. Parc Des Princes is the unexposed one in here for my mind and 8/1 is too big.
Three races of interest today.
3.00 Yarmouth Big Sur 4pts win @ 8/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
Represents a trainer with an awful 0/33 record a this track in the last five seasons. Much has been made about Big Sur's breeding (related to Seta) and he has showed on more than one occasion hints of ability that suggest he is a good bit better than a 59 rated handicapper. However, he has yet to truly convince on the track and is priced up on ability rather than achievement to some extent. I'm keeping the faith, though. I think a galloping mile like Yarmouths is probably a step in the right direction for this horse. He has a fine big stride and has tended to pull hard in his races, last time over ten furlongs included. If he has come on fitness wise for that run, and enjoys today's race conditions more than Lingfields tight turns, I believe he can prove himself a very well handicapped horse. There are some fairly poor performers in here and he should go very close this time. His stable have had a couple of horses outperform their odds in the last few days, they look to be running into some form and 8/1 might look bit post race today. A word on Djalalabad, I remain convinced she will pick up a race for Jeff Pearce but I'm not sure she let herself down on the ground last time (good to firm like today) and I think a mile stretches her.
4.00 Yarmouth Angelo Poliziano 2pts win @ 12/1, Rough Rock 2pts win @ 9/1 (Both generally, guaranteed)
Huge prices for this pair. Angelo Poliziano is a real interesting one, as a horse who acts around Catterick and probably could have contested a six furlong contest there today. Instead Ann Duffield sends him to Yarmouth for this five furlong contest, and has booked the excellent Pat Cosgrave to ride. The selection made up loads of ground last time out in a contest where a progressive front runner landed the spoils. He suffered a wide trip too and I was surprised he ran so well on his seasonal debut. The stable have been out of form but expect a batch of winners any day soon, the signs are that Ann's string are getting there and May and June last year was a golden period for her stable.
Rough Rock has won two of his last three and strikes me as a horse who is still well ahead of the handicapper. He travels supremely well in his races and I'm taken aback by the spotlight comments that suggest the drop back might be a negative - this horse has bundles of pace. Michael Murphy gets on well with him and has looked well worth his seven pound claim in recent races.
6.30 Haydock Parc Des Princes 3pts win @ 9/1 (Stan James, guaranteed)
Bombed out last time at Windsor in a better race than this, but deserves a second chance in my opinion. He travelled quite well before hanging and fading out of contention, but he may simply have needed the race. The Balding stable continue in excellent form and seem to have targeted these races with a couple of different 7lb apprentices so far this year. I seen this lad Francis Hayes ride a 100/1 shot at Lingers the other day and he looks quite polished, if a little brave! This race looks poor and to be honest I think with the favourite Ghufa looks beatable. Parc Des Princes is the unexposed one in here for my mind and 8/1 is too big.
Thursday 20th May
Another brilliant day yesterday, like many of you I backed yesterday's three in doubles and a treble, and we were only denied a life-altering payout by some bad luck in running - for what it's worth I think Epsom Salts would have won with a clear run but I'm not really worried, that's racing and we made serious profits anyway.
The last two weeks have been pretty fantastic. We're up many, many points and more importantly our annual profits for 2010 have a very consistent look to them. It's time to take a step back and have a think, though. We went through a nine day losing run at the end of April / start of May and as with any value betting service, you have to be aware that losing runs can happen any time. The real reason you (the client) have made money in the past few weeks is that you took the decision to resubscribe by seeing the bigger picture (long terms gains rather than a short term loss) instead of losing interest because a few losers started mounting up. I hope this doesn't sound like self-gloatification (no, it's not a word!) but the fact is, the same methods have made us money consistently over the past few years and will continue to do so, losing run or no losing run.
Amazingly good runs can also make you think you have the game "sorted". There is no such thing. The game we play is simply about percentages, we try to turn a 110% (ish) book in our favour by selecting horses that are overpriced, and eliminating others - sometimes we win, more often than not we lose. What most people don't realise is that you'll soon be doing very well for your self if you have a 20% strike rate backing 8/1 shots. So what is the best way to react to a really good run? Raise the stakes and "push", or lower the stakes and "protect". The answer is to do nothing of the sort. Personally, I buy myself something nice, have a night out, then bolster my betting bank. Simple as.
Enough waffle. On to today.
7.05 Salisbury Desert Icon 3pts win @ 15/2 (Paddy Power, guaranteed)
Was noted coming home under very tender handling last time out, having been settled in rear and arguably racing on a disadvantageous part of the track for much of the race. The handicapper has dropped him 2lbs and this looks a much easier contest than the Windsor race. This horse has twice broken his pelvis so has clearly had plenty of trouble which might explain why he was been given the kid gloves treatment. David Probert doesn't tend to mess about and I expect a stronger ride today, particularly in light of William Knight's pre-race comments last time:
"We've had a good preparation for this and he's done well over the winter. Windsor is a nice starting place. I hope he can run well in this before going on to better things. Desert Icon has some decent form. Hopefully, he can improve as the year goes on and he can get into contests such as the Wokingham at Royal Ascot which is the main target."
He'd want to be winning at least twice to get into the Wokingham but he is clearly still held in some regard and is a danger to all off a mark of 78 today. The stable are on fire and had 25/1 and 9/2 winners yesterday. As a footer, I was tempted to support their Missionaire at Sandown, but his contest looks a very strong one.
7.40 Salisbury Leader Of The Land 4pts win @ 4/1 (Stan James, Betfred, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
Got off the mark up in trip last time out under Ted Durcan who rides again today. Wasn't necessarily suited by a crawl at Beverley and I reckon the likely better pace from a 14 runner field and more testing track might see him find some more improvement. He was pulling away at the line last time and although that was a poor contest, I don't see any world beaters in here either.
8.45 Salisbury Sea Of Heartbreak 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, guaranteed) Won
A Roger Charlton trained three year old who we supported second time out when she won at Wolverhampton. She has been allotted a rating of 70 by the handicapper and there is reason to believe that might be lenient. We noted how well she travelled on debut when racing on an unfavourable part of the track, before she faded on testing ground that did not suit her. She showed great pluck and courage to win next time out, running straight as a barrel and responding well for pressure to squeeze through a thin gap even when intimidated by a rival jockey's whip. She steps up almost three furlongs this evening to a trip which looks more in tune with her pedigree and if she has progressed over the winter, she should be capable of making a winning 3yo debut here. This looks an excellent piece of placement by Roger Charlton, the race looks higher on quantity than quality and I quite fancy her to win.
The last two weeks have been pretty fantastic. We're up many, many points and more importantly our annual profits for 2010 have a very consistent look to them. It's time to take a step back and have a think, though. We went through a nine day losing run at the end of April / start of May and as with any value betting service, you have to be aware that losing runs can happen any time. The real reason you (the client) have made money in the past few weeks is that you took the decision to resubscribe by seeing the bigger picture (long terms gains rather than a short term loss) instead of losing interest because a few losers started mounting up. I hope this doesn't sound like self-gloatification (no, it's not a word!) but the fact is, the same methods have made us money consistently over the past few years and will continue to do so, losing run or no losing run.
Amazingly good runs can also make you think you have the game "sorted". There is no such thing. The game we play is simply about percentages, we try to turn a 110% (ish) book in our favour by selecting horses that are overpriced, and eliminating others - sometimes we win, more often than not we lose. What most people don't realise is that you'll soon be doing very well for your self if you have a 20% strike rate backing 8/1 shots. So what is the best way to react to a really good run? Raise the stakes and "push", or lower the stakes and "protect". The answer is to do nothing of the sort. Personally, I buy myself something nice, have a night out, then bolster my betting bank. Simple as.
Enough waffle. On to today.
7.05 Salisbury Desert Icon 3pts win @ 15/2 (Paddy Power, guaranteed)
Was noted coming home under very tender handling last time out, having been settled in rear and arguably racing on a disadvantageous part of the track for much of the race. The handicapper has dropped him 2lbs and this looks a much easier contest than the Windsor race. This horse has twice broken his pelvis so has clearly had plenty of trouble which might explain why he was been given the kid gloves treatment. David Probert doesn't tend to mess about and I expect a stronger ride today, particularly in light of William Knight's pre-race comments last time:
"We've had a good preparation for this and he's done well over the winter. Windsor is a nice starting place. I hope he can run well in this before going on to better things. Desert Icon has some decent form. Hopefully, he can improve as the year goes on and he can get into contests such as the Wokingham at Royal Ascot which is the main target."
He'd want to be winning at least twice to get into the Wokingham but he is clearly still held in some regard and is a danger to all off a mark of 78 today. The stable are on fire and had 25/1 and 9/2 winners yesterday. As a footer, I was tempted to support their Missionaire at Sandown, but his contest looks a very strong one.
7.40 Salisbury Leader Of The Land 4pts win @ 4/1 (Stan James, Betfred, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
Got off the mark up in trip last time out under Ted Durcan who rides again today. Wasn't necessarily suited by a crawl at Beverley and I reckon the likely better pace from a 14 runner field and more testing track might see him find some more improvement. He was pulling away at the line last time and although that was a poor contest, I don't see any world beaters in here either.
8.45 Salisbury Sea Of Heartbreak 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, guaranteed) Won
A Roger Charlton trained three year old who we supported second time out when she won at Wolverhampton. She has been allotted a rating of 70 by the handicapper and there is reason to believe that might be lenient. We noted how well she travelled on debut when racing on an unfavourable part of the track, before she faded on testing ground that did not suit her. She showed great pluck and courage to win next time out, running straight as a barrel and responding well for pressure to squeeze through a thin gap even when intimidated by a rival jockey's whip. She steps up almost three furlongs this evening to a trip which looks more in tune with her pedigree and if she has progressed over the winter, she should be capable of making a winning 3yo debut here. This looks an excellent piece of placement by Roger Charlton, the race looks higher on quantity than quality and I quite fancy her to win.
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