Three for today and hopefully we can get close to last weeks exploits; today is a day for small stakes though, I feel all the below horses are overpriced for one reason or another and one winner will put us in front for the day.
3.45 Carlisle Shalya 3pts win @ 7/1 (Betfred, Totesport, guaranteed)Non Runner
Was given a very easy time of it at Catterick, where she was outpaced over seven furlongs. We supported her last time when she was stepped up in trip but she was withdrawn having been very well supported. This race looks equally as mediocre as the last one, and I think she will show improved form stepped up in trip here. Alan Swinbank remains in decent form, the stake is only three points because the Catterick race has worked out poorly. I still feel there is plenty of ability there and 7/1 is too big, she looks a 5/1 shot in this race to me.
6.40 Windsor Yabtree 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
Represents Roger Charlton whose three year olds have been in good form. I'm a little surprised Hugh Taylor hasn't put this one up this morning given that he was the first to highlight the strong rails bias at Lingfield on the day that Yabtree ran there. The selection was sent off 8/1 and pulled far too hard, and ended up in no mans land towards the outside of the rails bunch, closer to the middle of the course than was beneficial. Everything that raced on the rail showed up well in the finish, but the selection bombed out due to a combination of bad track position and pulling too hard. The thing is, he has pulled too hard before so it seems to be an ongoing issue. I'm hoping that with the seasonal debut behind him and the freshness taken out of him, Yabtree will settle better and we'll get to see what he has up his sleeve in the finish. He actually put his head down and battled on really well at Lingers, and the handicapper has dropped him a handy 2lb for that. He has every chance here off 68 and 14/1 is too big, he should be 8/1 or 9/1 in my opinion.
6.55 Thirsk Sarwin 2pts win @ 18/1, Im Frank 2pts win @ 11/1 (Generally, guaranteed)
Nice one Hugh Taylor for making the prices for us here. Hugh is correct in his assessment of Shadowtime, he has the strongest form in this race and deserves to be favourite, but he is now a false price in my opinion. I thought it was very interesting that Alan Swinbank entered two horses here, because he trains Come And Go, who beat Shadowtime and landed us a 12/1 winner last time out over this course and distance. Clearly, Swinbank has an excellent line on the form and I'm intrigued by the double entry.
Sarwin looks the one with the strongest claims on paper. He came to hand this time year and defeated Shadowtime narrowly at one stage before the pair improved (off better terms). Swinbank will also be aware of the recent pace bias at Thirsk and the strong travelling Sarwin is likely to be prominent throughout. His recent form doesn't look great but a more thorough analysis suggests he didn't have conditions in his favour.
I'm Frank is a handicap debutant, as was Come And Go when he won over course and distance. He was never happy at Hamilton last time out and the step back in trip (pulled hard) and bigger field will suit in my opinion. A mark of 68 doesn't look lenient on the book but as I said, his trainer has a good line on the form and it is possible he is a bit better than he has already showed.
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