Another brilliant day yesterday, like many of you I backed yesterday's three in doubles and a treble, and we were only denied a life-altering payout by some bad luck in running - for what it's worth I think Epsom Salts would have won with a clear run but I'm not really worried, that's racing and we made serious profits anyway.
The last two weeks have been pretty fantastic. We're up many, many points and more importantly our annual profits for 2010 have a very consistent look to them. It's time to take a step back and have a think, though. We went through a nine day losing run at the end of April / start of May and as with any value betting service, you have to be aware that losing runs can happen any time. The real reason you (the client) have made money in the past few weeks is that you took the decision to resubscribe by seeing the bigger picture (long terms gains rather than a short term loss) instead of losing interest because a few losers started mounting up. I hope this doesn't sound like self-gloatification (no, it's not a word!) but the fact is, the same methods have made us money consistently over the past few years and will continue to do so, losing run or no losing run.
Amazingly good runs can also make you think you have the game "sorted". There is no such thing. The game we play is simply about percentages, we try to turn a 110% (ish) book in our favour by selecting horses that are overpriced, and eliminating others - sometimes we win, more often than not we lose. What most people don't realise is that you'll soon be doing very well for your self if you have a 20% strike rate backing 8/1 shots. So what is the best way to react to a really good run? Raise the stakes and "push", or lower the stakes and "protect". The answer is to do nothing of the sort. Personally, I buy myself something nice, have a night out, then bolster my betting bank. Simple as.
Enough waffle. On to today.
7.05 Salisbury Desert Icon 3pts win @ 15/2 (Paddy Power, guaranteed)
Was noted coming home under very tender handling last time out, having been settled in rear and arguably racing on a disadvantageous part of the track for much of the race. The handicapper has dropped him 2lbs and this looks a much easier contest than the Windsor race. This horse has twice broken his pelvis so has clearly had plenty of trouble which might explain why he was been given the kid gloves treatment. David Probert doesn't tend to mess about and I expect a stronger ride today, particularly in light of William Knight's pre-race comments last time:
"We've had a good preparation for this and he's done well over the winter. Windsor is a nice starting place. I hope he can run well in this before going on to better things. Desert Icon has some decent form. Hopefully, he can improve as the year goes on and he can get into contests such as the Wokingham at Royal Ascot which is the main target."
He'd want to be winning at least twice to get into the Wokingham but he is clearly still held in some regard and is a danger to all off a mark of 78 today. The stable are on fire and had 25/1 and 9/2 winners yesterday. As a footer, I was tempted to support their Missionaire at Sandown, but his contest looks a very strong one.
7.40 Salisbury Leader Of The Land 4pts win @ 4/1 (Stan James, Betfred, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)
Got off the mark up in trip last time out under Ted Durcan who rides again today. Wasn't necessarily suited by a crawl at Beverley and I reckon the likely better pace from a 14 runner field and more testing track might see him find some more improvement. He was pulling away at the line last time and although that was a poor contest, I don't see any world beaters in here either.
8.45 Salisbury Sea Of Heartbreak 5pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, guaranteed) Won
A Roger Charlton trained three year old who we supported second time out when she won at Wolverhampton. She has been allotted a rating of 70 by the handicapper and there is reason to believe that might be lenient. We noted how well she travelled on debut when racing on an unfavourable part of the track, before she faded on testing ground that did not suit her. She showed great pluck and courage to win next time out, running straight as a barrel and responding well for pressure to squeeze through a thin gap even when intimidated by a rival jockey's whip. She steps up almost three furlongs this evening to a trip which looks more in tune with her pedigree and if she has progressed over the winter, she should be capable of making a winning 3yo debut here. This looks an excellent piece of placement by Roger Charlton, the race looks higher on quantity than quality and I quite fancy her to win.
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