Friday 30th November 2012

Despite some good quality action today, there are limited proper betting opportunities. Saying that, there is one overpriced horse at Wolverhampton.

5.55 Wolverhampton Advanced 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 12/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

It might seem folly to recommend a 9yo who has never won over the mile trip, but Advanced has one decent piece of all weather form over a mile, at Lingfield off a mark of OR105 in 2010, and I have a sneaking feeling he might be able to stretch his stamina this evening given this might be a slowly run race, off a mark of OR83. His run at Lingfield last time was an excellent one, the form is strong for the grade and I don't think the standard to slow at Lingfield will have played to his strengths. He ran five pound above his current handicap mark, though, and on his old form he is chucked in tonight. Some of his rivals have question marks against them on recent form, and despite his big field handicap form he has won in fields of nine and seven. Amy Ryan is forging a decent partnership with him, and I think if he settles into a rhythm here he can get involved in the finish. The stable are in excellent form, and by playing each-way we can protect our outlay.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +21.70 / year: +1.80

Thursday 29th November 2012

Both yesterday's selections finished third. I was a little disappointed with the ride given to Communicator, but Media Hype surprised both myself and the betfair layers (BSP 7.71, ISP 3/1) by winning impressively. I hadn't marked him down as a natural on the surface after his previous run. He can go on from that.

One selection for this evening.

7.05 Kempton Arctic Lynx 4pts win @ 7/1 (Skybet, Sporting Bet, Blue Square, 888 Sport, independents)

I find this horse really interesting given the excellent form of the Cowell sprinters. He looks to prefer artificial surfaces, and his win at Wolverhampton was a game one on only his second run for this stable, having transferred from John Best, whose string haven't had a good couple of years. The selection was never well placed when fancied at Lingfield last time out, Hannah Nunn is an apprentice I admire but she was stuck wide and didn't get any breaks in running. The horse was also too keen early on. Michael J. Murphy is an absolute steal for his 5lb claim and it is interesting he gets the ride tonight. You have to think Cowell has Dubai in mind and wants to get this horses' rating up above the minimum ceiling, which is around OR90 last I heard. There are question marks about many of these, and from a good draw I think Arctic Lynx has room for improvement off his current handicap mark. The 5lb claim is the icing on the cake and with normal luck in running he should go very close.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +25.70 / year: +5.80

Wednesday 28th November 2012

I'm not sure the race panned out well for Silver Wind this afternoon, he ran well but finished only third.

One selection for Wednesday Evening.

6.00 Kempton Communicator 5pts win @ 9/2 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, William Hill, Independents, guaranteed)

Communicator has improved no end towards the back end of this flat season, and I find it interesting his trainer keeps him going to contest this listed contest. He is closely matched with Art Scholar, but I think that rival is better on turf and I am prepared to give Communicator a chance to prove himself on the all weather. He ran fairly well here on his only polytrack start, but he has improved no end since and Andrew Balding's horses tend to go well here - the trainer boasts a very useful 16% strike rate at this track. I'm not sure Harris Tweed is the horse he once was, and I am also happy to take on Media Hype on this surface. In fact I think both look very short and the main danger could be Roxy Flyer. As a progressive horse who has posted lifetime best Racing Post Ratings on his last three starts, the selection is recommended at a price which looks a bit too generous.

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Afternoon Bet:

Just one selection for this afternoon. We may have an evening bet for Kempton, details either way before 3.30pm.

1.10 Wolverhampton Silver Wind 5pts win @ 6/1 (VC Bet, Paddy Power, guaranteed, 11/2 generally guaranteed)

Ran a really nice race at Doncaster last time out, travelling well on ground that was probably too slow for his liking, as evidenced by the slow time of the race. Silver Wind returns to polytrack today off a mark of OR60 which he is well capable of winning off, and he has the assistance of the excellent Graham Gibbons in the saddle. Alan McCabe's horses seem to be running into their usual good winter form, and from stall 5 I think the selection looks overpriced in relation to Speightstowns Kid and Pelmanism. His recent form if probably stronger, and at the prices he merits backing as a triple course winner.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +29.70 / year: +9.80

Tuesday 27th November 2012

Poor stuff today, but one good looking bet.

3.00 Lingfield Pensnett Bay 5pts win @ 4/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 7/2 generally guaranteed)

Not sure about the favourite's ability to handle ground this testing and Pensnett Bay looks a nice price for one proven on heavy ground. The selection ran a much better race on seasonal debut than his finishing position suggests, and that was a better contest than todays. I think he is overpriced in relation to the favourite and his sire Karinga Bay has an extremely strong record with his progeny on soft and heavy ground.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +39.70 / year: +19.80

Saturday 24th November 2012

One selection.

5.50 Wolverhampton Annaluna 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, 11/1 Generally Guaranteed)

I made a note to take on Italian Riviera next time out, wasn't overly impressed with him at Southwell. Blue Zealot may have lost her form and I'm loathe to back her after a poor run last time out. Entitlement is also risky, she weakened very quickly last time and may not be ready for this stamina test. Dave Evan's Annaluna is an assured stayer, is not reliant on a pace as a prominent racer, and appears to be improving gradually with racing. This is her all weather debut but her sire's progeny have a 19% strike rate at this track and she is very much bred to improve on this surface. Stall one will suit her run style and Graham Gibbons is an excellent booking.

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Two races of interest this afternoon, and a possible evening bet - details of that either way at 5.00pm.

1.55 Lingfield

Adorable Choice 3pts win @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Emman Bee 3pts win @ 12/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 11/1 generally guaranteed)

Two years now since Adorable Choice won her maiden for us at 33/1, and she makes appeal this afternoon to add a fourth win to her tally. She is out of the handicap, but the excellent Natasha Eaton is booked and from stall four the only instruction can really be to make all. A mark of OR68 means there is room to manouevre, and with the stable in decent form she looks good value at double figure odds.

Three year olds do well in this contest and Emman Bee is interesting with Joe Fanning booked. Her all weather form reads well and I would suggest there is definitely room for improvement off her current mark. A prep race over six furlongs last week was encouraging, and the booking of Joe Fanning looks a real positive.

3.05 Haydock Weird Al 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Has a fantastic record fresh, and will have been trained for this race since last season ended. His trainer does really well at this track and his horses are in good form. I think he will be backed on course and 5/1 makes plenty of appeal. No real need for a long write up on this one, everything that has been said in the press is taken into account, I just think that of all the horses here, Weird Al has been prepped for this as his big day - the market principals have other targets in the medium term. That might tell in the slog to the line.

Profit & loss: day:-15.00 / month: +44.70 / year: +24.80

Friday 23rd November 2012

Both yesterday's selections ran well but ultimately found other horses too good.

Just the one selection for Friday.

5.10 Wolverhampton Thecornishcockney 3pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 8/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, Betpack.com, guaranteed, 15/2 VC Bet, Paddy Power, guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

An interesting race in which the favourite looks short enough at around even money, with a competitive field against him and an each-way bet on Thecornishcockney appeals at the prices. The selection is held by the favourite on Lingfield form but he looks very much unexposed over staying trips and his form has improved since he was stretched out in trip - indeed he has probably been unlucky not to get his head in front by now. I'm not sure the Lingfield form will hold up here, given that a 7lb claimer held up the selection well in rear on a track that is definitely favouring those ridden prominently. I think today's course and distance are ideal for the selection, the stable's horses are generally running well and the booking of Robert Winston suggests they mean business today.

Profit & loss: day: +0.80 / month: +59.70 / year: +39.80

Thursday 22nd November 2012

Two selections for this evening.

4.10 Kempton Beat The Bell 5pts win @ 9/2 (Paddy Power, Stan James, betpack.com, William Hill, independents, guaranteed)

A 10c rule 4 will now apply with most bookmakers.

I watched Beat The Bell with interest last time at Southwell, given his extremely impressive win the previous day at Wolverhampton. He simply does not act on fibresand, though, indeed his sire "boasts" a 0% strike rate on that surface which is funny in itself. It does mean that run can be forgiven, and I made a mental note the previous day to support Beat The Bell on polytrack wherever he went next. We have a nice price on our hands even taking into account a rule 4, and Jamie Osborne's 25% record with older horses in claimers over the last five seasons returning a level stakes profit of +£15.65 to the pound suggests the in form handler has a good knowledge of placing his horses in these contests. I think he should take the beating granted a reasonable pace to aim at.

5.40 Kempton Schoolmaster 5pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Won a really strong looking contest at Lingfield last time out, packed full of good horses. Even though he god an easy lead, his tactical speed was impressive and marked him down as progressive and probably way ahead of the handicapper. He looks set to get an easy lead again tonight, and the question mark for me is whether he will act on this track as well as he does at Lingfield. I don't see too many reasons why not, and I certainly think the price discrepancy between he and Tropics is ridiculous - Tropics beat trees last time out, is not as experienced, yet has been awarded the same mark. I fancy Adam Kirby to sit prominent and take it up around the home turn, hopefully stretching on to win.

Profit & loss: day: -10.00 / month: +58.90 / year: +39.00

Wednesday 21st November 2012

Two selections for today.

2.30 Lingfield York Glory 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

Represents a stable who are in good form and currently unleashing their best winter horses for all weather campaigns. York Glory has good back form on the all weather and, as a four year old, is lightly raced enough to improve again. He ran really well on his penultimate run at Doncaster, posting an RPR of 98, which makes him look well handicapped off a mark of OR92 today. Philip Makin takes the ride, and I don't see many negatives. The horse appears to have grown this year, he is a fine looking sprinter, and if he can get a prominent sit here he may be able to burn off his rivals.

4.00 Kempton Caboodle 7pts win @ 8/1 (Boylesports, Stan James, Betpack.com, Brucebetting.com, independents, guaranteed, 8/1 Skybet, Coral)

An absolute win or bust job, in terms of the fact that I wouldn't be surprised to see this win by five lengths, or trail in last by five lengths. She is a three year old filly attached to a stable in flying form, particularly with their sprinters. Caboodle is bred to sprint and showed plenty of speed on her second start at Pontefract before failing to handle an undulation and fading. It is disconcerting that she is having only her third start as a three year old, and comes back from an absence, but it has to be of interest that connections persevere and her dam was a very decent all weather sprinter. I did notice some market support before we got on board, and if she is fancied I would expect connections to go in again. The thing that makes this an attractive bet is that the opposition look next to useless, it really is a very poor race and if she is tuned up and possesses any reasonable amount of ability, she ought to win and should be a lot shorter in my book.

Profit & loss: day: +18.00 / month: +68.90 / year: +49.00

Tuesday 20th November 2012

Two interests today, and we'll double them up.

1pt e/w double on today's selections.

12.20 Southwell Linroyale Boy 4pts win @ 5/1 (Boylesports, VC Bet, William Hill, independents, guaranteed)

Anyone's guess whether this horse will be fully wound up after a break, but his stable are in fine form, including at this track, and he is very much bred to go on the surface. Sire Giant's Causeway boasts a 23% record with his progeny here, and the selection ran well enough over a mile here last winter. A mark of OR54 looks to underestimate his ability, and although he has only had five starts as a four year old and may have been difficult to train, his trainer is patient with these types and can often get the best out of them.

1.20 Southwell Projectisle 4pts win @ 9/4 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON @ 5/1

Ran well here last week under an apprentice pilot, trapped wide all the way and not really finding a turn of foot over six furlongs where required. She steps up to seven furlongs today and, having proved she acts ok on the surface, she might take some stopping if the blinkers have a positive effect on her performance. Half brother Beaver Patrol returned to form in the Stewards Cup to go very close in first time blinkers, and won soon after in a first time visor, this would give encouragement Projectisle can to the same at a lower level.

Profit & loss: day: +14.00 / month: +50.90 / year: +31.00

Saturday 17th November 2012

Great racing today, four interests.

1.55 Cheltenham Ashkazar 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I can't believe the price on this one, a horse with plenty of course form including on soft ground, who has probably been laid out to the minute by the Pipe team and with Timmy Murphy booked. It is a difficult race to pick through, but the selection certainly looks well handicapped and looks the sort the stable excel with producing for one big day. They are in fine form and I'd be surprised if this was not the target for a while now; double figures is too big.

2.35 Cheltenham - The Paddy Power Gold Cup

Triolo D'Alene 3pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed, already advised)

Walkon 3pts win @ 8/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, Stan James, betpack.com, guaranteed)

A lot of talk about the top end of the weights but this is a handicap don't forget and the rain softened ground will be a great leveller coming up the hill. I'm not mad about Grand Crus' jumping, and I'm not sure about Hunt Ball on the ground, or first time up in this kind of race. Not a massive Al Ferof fan either. As such this may go to a top end handicapper rather than a class act and I've taken two against the field. Barry Geraghty is doing 10-1 on Triolo D'Alene which makes you sit up and take notice straight away. He was well fancied by connections against Hunt Ball at Cheltenham but didn't fire and ended up needing a breathing op.

Walkon comes in somewhere between class act and top handicapper, he looks well weighted on his best form and crucially he has strong soft ground form, indeed his form with cut in the ground looks his best. More than most, he looks set to enjoy these conditions and at 8/1 he still looks a backable price.

2.50 Lingfield Ballista 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

Represents Tom Dascombe, whose stable continue in exellent form. Ballista is improving fast, and his Leicester run was probably his best yet. He is forgiven a poor run on soft ground last time, Dascombe trains his horses on polytrack and I have little doubt he will act on the surface. He is well drawn and his jockey is likely to ride him prominently, tactics which are tending to do well on this relaid surface.

Profit & loss: day: +19.00 / month: +36.90 / year: +17.00

Friday 16th November 2012

Just one for today, on a fantastic day's racing.

1.15 Cheltenham Unioniste 4pts win @ 11/2 (Paddy Power, Stan James, Betpack.com, independents, get guaranteed)

2/2 over fences so far and up against Fingal Bay, whose Chepstow win I'm not sure about, and Dynaste, who has yet to jump a fence in public, I think he represents the value. Paul Nicholls won this in 2006 with Denman, and although the Pipes tend to target the race, I think the champion trainer knows what it takesto win this race and has pick of a few novices he can aim at it. Experience will probably be key here and, with Ruby Walsh in the plate, I'm inclined to side with this son of Dom Alco, whose progeny I like as chasers in particular.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +17.90 / year: -2.00

Thursday 16th November 2012

One for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet released before 4.00pm.

1.50 Southwell Quan 5pts win @ 9/2 (Boylesports, guaranteed, 4/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

We backed Quan on heavy ground at Redcar a couple of weeks ago and he ran well before fading into third. His style of racing will be well suited to Southwell, and his sire Shamardal boasts a 24% strike rate with his progeny at this course. A wide draw in stall 13 shouldn't be too much of a problem given his running style and the nature of this track, and he appeals as a decent bet in a weak looking maiden for older horses.

Profit & loss: day: +20.00 / month: +21.90 / year: +2.00

Wednesday 14th November 2012

A busy today for us today, winter and the all weather season are truly upon us!

1.20 Southwell Sensucht 5pts win @ 2/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I can see no reason why Sensucht is not favourite here up against a horse with no fibresand experience at the head of the market. He ran below form last time out but that was in a very strong race for the grade and I'm not sure he was fully ready after a month off. He drops back to maiden company today and his form behind No Dominion is a standout in this company. No Dominion is a very good horse and the pair pulled well clear of the field in filling the first two places. 2/1 represents value, no doubt about it. Get guaranteed as, bizarrely, it might drift further.

1.50 Southwell Eastern Dragon 4pts win @ 9/2 (VC Bet, Stan James, www.betpack.com, guaranteed, 4/1 generally guaranteed)

Has been backed a bit early doors. Eastern Dragon represents a sire whose progeny do very well at Southwell, including first time on the surface. He has looked a bit one paced so far in his career but his stable are in fine form and if he takes to the surface there is little for him to be afraid of here. The top two in the market look awfully short and, unless there is something lurking at a price, I can see Eastern Dragon landing the spoils.

2.50 Southwell Dubaianswer 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (VC Bet, Stan James, Betpack.com, Brucebetting.com, guaranteed, 12/1 Coral)

An out and out fibresand specialist who travels extremely well on the surface and boasts a standout piece of form in the context of this race - her defeat of Mawakeef by 1 3/4 lengths in receipt of 4lb looks really strong in retrospect. That rival has since won off OR84. The third has won a pair of sellers since, Colour Guard (4th) won his next two starts over course and distance and is now rated OR81. Follow The Flag is a Southwell stalwart, Piceno ran really well here last time out and is progressive. She beat those rivals easily, and the fact that her trainer has tried her in listed company is a measure of how highly he rates her. She travels incredibly strongly on this surface, and she should get the decent pace she requires to use her finishing speed today. Anything in double figures looks too big.

5.25 Kempton Electric Qatar 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

A really competitive looking sprint and a credit to Kempton for putting it on at this early stage of the season. The claims of the favourite are there for all to see, but since a breathing operation sorted him out, Electric Qatar has gone 2/2 on polytrack and although the form doesn't amount to much, the manner of victory has impressed on both occasions. He is tailor made for Jamie Spencer's hold up style, needing to be ridden with loads of confidence before using what is a very fast one furlong burst at the end of his race. He will always need luck in running, and this is as likely to be a heartbreaking defeat / trouble in running job as it is a win, but at double figures and with plenty of pace on with a good draw, I fancy his chances, particularly if it transpires that he is the type to go best fresh.

Profit & loss: day: -15.00 / month: +1.90 / year: -18.00

Tuesday 13th November 2012

One selection for today.

2.00 Lingfield Oscar Magic 5pts win @ 11/4 (William Hill, VC Bet, guaranteed, 5/2 generally guaranteed)

A decent novice hurdle, but the market has been somewhat skewed by the fact that some tipsters have elected to select Utopian as a confident choice following his bumper his impressive initial bumper win. I am inclined to stick with the bigger operations, though, who are proven with getting these young hurdlers schooling well and fit first time up. The Twiston Davies stable traditionally do well at this time of year and seem to be hitting stride now with three recent winners. Oscar Magic's bumper form looks particularly solid, indeed he was not disgraced when sent off 12/1 for the 2011 Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. I think he represents a bit of value against Utopian and I'm inclined to look past the O'Neill runner given the stable's recent form.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +16.90 / year: -3.00

Friday 9th November 2012

Two selections for this evening.

4.50 Wolverhampton Living Leader 4pts win @ 5/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 9/2 generally guaranteed) - WON

The Littmoden stable have come out of the doldrums recently and they seem to have a couple of nice horses now, Cut Across being one in particular with a future. Living Leader made his debut at Windsor and looks a really big horse. I don't think he handled bog like conditions at Windsor, but he ran on well having missed the break and passed horses until very close home, which is something I look for with juveniles. There are a few "sleepers" in this contest and for that reason I wanted to wait and see what was backed early, predictably the selection took support at fancy prices overnight but you won't get much more than 50 quid on then, he was 13/2 and 6/1 at 10am which disappeared but I still think he is value at the prices and am happy to back him. I expect him to go off shorter still.

5.20 Wolverhampton Game All 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Represents Hugo Palmer who does really well with fillies. She made a promising debut at Lingfield in May, but wasn't seen afterwards until Yarmouth in September where she was expected to win and was punted into odds on. Although she has been difficult to train, I find it interesting she is persevered with in November and they clearly feel she has the ability to pick up one of these back end polytrack maidens. Jimmy Quinn takes the ride and from stall five, she should get an ideal position. She did not handle the firm ground at Yarmouth, and I feel this surface will bring about further improvement. As a filly bred to be a lot better than a plater, it would make no sense sending her here for a handicap mark of OR50, she has plenty of speed and I think they'll want to get off the mark with a win.

Profit & loss: day: +15.00 / month: +21.90 / year: +2.00

Thursday 8th November 2012

Two selections for this afternoon. We may have an evening selection, details at 3.30pm.

2.10 Lingfield Fairyinthewind 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 18/1 (18/1 Bet 365, VC Bet, guaranteed, 16/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd @ 20/1

Produced a fine performance to win easily on Kempton's polytrack this time last year and, as with many fillies, it may be that she comes into form at the same time this year.  She ran much better than her finishing position suggests last time out at Wolverhampton, upped to the extended nine furlong trip. She pulled hard held up in rear but finished quite well and was hampered in the straight. Her jockey didn't persevere once her chance had gone and she was allowed to come home in her own time. She will need to settle better today and will need luck in running, but it looks like there is a decent pace on the cards here and she may be allowed to settle in midfield given the way the track is riding. She has been dropped 2lb by the handicapper for her last run and looks overpriced in what looks a lesser contest.

4.10 Lingfield Rylee Mooch 5pts win @ 6/1 (Stan James, betpack.com, Blue Square, 888 Sport, independents))

A polytrack expert who returned to form like many from his stable last time out. That was on soft ground at pontefract, he held the inside rail throughout on an afternoon when it paid to come wide and he was clear of everything that raced behind him at the finish. Indeed I think he did really well to finish third and it looked a better contest than todays. Jason Hart replaces Robbie Fitzpatrick in the saddle, he has won on the horse before and claims a useful 5lb. Billy Red will probably go tear-assing off in front here, I would expect the selection to track him and challenge in the home straight. 6/1 is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -2.00 / month: +6.90 / year: -13.00

Wednesday 7th November 2012

Two selections for this evening.

1pt each-way double on today's selections.

5.55 Kempton Knight Owl 3pts  win @ 14/1 (Stan James, Betpack.com, Independents, guaranteed, 14/1 Sporting Bet)

Represents James Fanshawe, who is not renowned for training two year olds. Indeed, I have to say I found it really unusual that this horse was being kept on the go and one can only presume they think it has the ability to win as a two year old, on this surface. You don't see many of Fanshawe's juvenile on the all weather coming into winter. Knoght Owl was sent off only 9/1 for his debut at Newmarket, but he had a bad draw and the ground was bottomless. He travelled really well for four furlongs, before fading fast and finishing in last place. There is little doubt he has plenty of speed, and I feel it is worth taking a small risk that he improves for this surface and for the intitial experience - Newmarket is a particularly tough track to win at first time out. This does not look a strong maiden, and although Swift Bounty looks relatively solid, I think Knight Owl could be very decent - whether he is ready to show it tonight or not is the risk we take. We'll also put him in an each-way double with our second selection.

6.25 Kempton Tokyo Brown 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

All Weather fans will know how well Neil Callan rides this two mile track, in particular his efforts on Coda Agency from the front stick out. He took Tokyo Brown to the front on his penultimate run here, and although the other jockeys cottoned on and didn't give him an easy lead, the selection did pull clear with two others to finish second. That was a 3yo only handicap and it might just have been a better race than todays. There are question marks about the other three year olds in the line up here, and I am happy to forgive Tokyo Brown an average run at Wolverhampton six days ago - he has run badly there before and it may be this track suits him better. 12/1 looks a decent price and I think it is big - 8/1 would be my tissue price for this horse - and if a first time visor has a galvanising effect, the selection can take a hand in the finish.

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: +8.90 / year: -11.00

Tuesday 6th November 2012

Two selections for this afternoon, evening bets may follow with details either way at 3.30pm.

1.40 Southwell Nasharra 1pt each-way AND 2pts win @ 14/1 (Paddy Power, 12/1 Generally guaranteed)

I'll probably regret tearing up the fibresand rulebook by quarter to two, but the fact is some horses do win on their fibresand debut and they aren't all U.S.A. bred. Saying that, Nasharra is close enough to a U.S. bred given that her dam and damsire are both U.S., indeed the dam was a fibresand winner back in the days before Wolverhampton changed to polytrack. There is also hope on the sire's side, Ifraaj's progeny having a 13% strike rate on the surface. The selection has been kept to turf thus far, but represents a stable whose horses have a 20% strike rate here in the last five seasons. I thought his run at Ayr was full of promise, he was drawn wide and slowly away on bottomless ground, but made up plenty of ground mid race before fading into third, having raced on the wrong part of the track. He is drawn in stall four today which is a good draw, and his six furlong speed should allow him to take up a prominent position going into the first turn. This horse kept listed company as a two year old, and although it has been a long road back since, he races off a mark of just OR70 today and some of his efforts in 2012, including a making all win over 6f at Carlisle off 1lb lower, would suggest a revival may be imminent this winter. A point each-way and two win saves the stake in the event of a place.

2.10 Southwell Xpres Maite 2pts each-way @ 25/1 (Paddy Power, Totesport, Betfred, independents, guaranteed, Skybet)

Again I'll probably be questioned for taking on the great La Estrella, but with just six runners and one confirmed front runner, this looks tailor made for Xpres Maite to make all. La Estrella looked beaten at one point in this race last year and the horse he beat went backwards, Kishanda was a three year old at the time and the race wasn't great. Xpres Maite comes here 100% fit and if his jockey is told to send him on, I would really fancy his chances. Fibresand is unusual in that horses tend to be able to stretch their stamina on the surface, and a win over course and distance beside a bunch of course wins over 6f and 7f would suggest Xpres Maite falls into that category of horse. I don't understand the price difference between he and Pendragon, Pendragon reopposes on better terms today but Xpres Maite's mid race speed was much more evident, and that is what wins races on this surface. A 25/1 winner would be nice, lets just hope Xpres Maite is sent forward, if that is the case, I think there is a good chance of collecting place money at the very least (place bet pays over 6/1).

Profit & loss: day: -8.00 / month: +16.90 / year: -3.00

Monday 5th November 2012

It was nice to get the Breeders Cup Classic winner two years in a row on Sunday morning, Fort Larned's display of speed and power was pretty awesome to watch. Shareta disappointed but speed held up all evening.

One for Monday.

3.20 Wolverhampton Rainestorm 5pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

By a sire who boasts a 21% strike rate at the track, for a trainer who also boasts a 21% strike rate at the track, ridden by a jockey with an 18% strike rate at the track. Rainestorm was green as grass first time out, missing the kick and unable to use his stride properly early on, before staying on well in the closing stages under patient hands and heels riding. He has had three weeks break since which I feel is perfect, and I would expect him to come on an absolute tonne for the outing. His action screamed "all weather" to me the moment I seen him run, and given that he is thereabouts at the ceiling value for this race, it may have been the plan for a while to run him here. It does not look a strong maiden, and with the trainer's horses running well again, I am happy to take 5/1 guaranteed.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +24.90 / year: +4.99

Saturday 3rd November 2012

Two selections in the Breeders Cup Classic.

12.35AM Santa Anita - The Breeders Cup Classic

Fort Larned 3pts win @ 8/1 (VC Bet, William Hill, independents, guaranteed, 15/2 Paddy Power, guaranteed) - WON @ 9/1

Ron The Greek 3pts win @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 7/1 Generally guaranteed)

Nothing stands out at a price like Drosselmeyer did for me last year (if only!) but I do have very strong opinions on this race with regard to pace. Quite simply, it is tough as hell to make all in this race and no horse has done so since Ghostzapper made on on a speed favouring Lone Star Park track in Texas in 2003. If any of you have ever read Patrick Veith's book, you'll know he had a theory about Cheltenham championship races and jockeys setting off too quick, setting the race up for stamina laden types coming up the hill. I have the same theory about the Classic, there is an awful lot of wad up for grabs and it can go to jockey's heads at times. Drosselmeyer came fast and late after a pace burn up last year, just the latest horse in a long line of winners (Blame, Zenyatta, Raven's Pass, Curlin, Invasor, St Liam) who have been produced relatively late.

Two stick out for me. Fort Larned is forgiven his run at Belmont, many horses don't act at the track and the horse wasn't 100% ready for the day - this has always been his target and the plan was to have him spot on for this. He is drawn well to sit handy just off the speed, and if he gets a decent tow into it, he is progressive enough to win looking at his best speed figures. He ships in from Kemtucky and is said to be working extremely well.

Ron The Greek chased home Fort Larned on his penultimate run. He is trained by William Mott, who trained Drosselmeyer, and his finest hour came over course when winning the Santa Anita handicap earlier this year. He was forced wide when chasing home Fort Larned and the race didn't seem to pan out to his want. A manic pace might set this up for him in my view, he is drawn in stall ten and his jockey will have no choice but to sit off the pace. I can see him coming fast and late, and anything around 7/1 or better looks like decent value.

22.18 Santa Anita Shareta 5pts each-way @ 9/2 (VC Bet, William Hill, Independents, guaranteed - or take 4/1 Stan James, Bet 365 guaranteed e/w 1/4 odds)

(Maximum Bet)

A race that has been good to us down the years, with a winning maximum in the form of Dangerous Midge in 2010, and Sea Moon returning a small profit for an each-way maximum last year with St. Nicholas Abbey swooping late to deny us another big payout. It is a race dominated by the Europeans, and as such I often feel there are plenty of horses you can throw out to start off, making it a good race to play each-way in. I don't think Point Of Entry has the class of the Europeans here, and apart from him I see nothing in the American contingent to trouble the European horses barring bad luck in running. Shareta looks a very progressive filly, her second place finish in the Arc last season was no fluke, but it is her defeat of The Fugue at York giving that filly 10lb that is the real key to this contest. John Gosden toyed with the idea of running his filly here instead of last night, which is basically an indicator that he didn't think the race was that strong. Shareta was the fly in the ointment, she pulled away from The Fugue in the closing stages at York and you have to think that would have confirmed the form here. Obviously Gosden thought the same, as it transpires The Fugue was unlucky not to win last night.

Reports from the track are that Shareta has worked well over there and appears to have travelled over with no problems. Her prominent style of racing and decent draw should assure that she makes her own luck in running. Her jockey rode two races here last night and will be full of confidence having won on Flotilla. It really leaves very few negatives and I struggle to see her out of the three given the normal luck in running that any horse requires to win a race.

As for the other Europeans, St. Nicholas Abbey hasn't looked the same horse this season but remains the main danger. Trailblazer is rumoured to have been a bit wild in the past week, misbehaving on the track during his schooling. I don't think his form is good enough anyway. The horse I am most afraid of is Cogito, who represents Dangerous Midge's trainer and jockey combination. Brian Meehan has an excellent record in the Breeders Cup and he wouldn't be sending the horse over for the Californian Sun. He is a huge price, and I may have a saver to cover my stake. All told, I feel Shareta has the best form this year and rates a maximum bet in a race that looks as if it will set up for her. 

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Outlaw Torn was a tough as nails winner for us last night, I must say I enjoy his make all and hold off all comers style, not wholly dissimilar to that of Royal Delta, who was superb in winning the Ladies' Classic last night. The fractions she set had to be seen to be believed!

3.10 Ascot Alfie Spinner 4pts win @ 13/2 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed)

Nick Williams horses are profitable to back blind on their season debuts at this time of year, he tends to have them wound up first time, and I think Alfie Spinner can win this off his current handicap. He is a real old fashioned chaser, he made real progress last season as a six and seven year old, and I would expect better again this year. He took to Ascot's quirky right handed track well when jumping fast and finishing third behind Invictus and Bobs Worth here last winter, that race has obviously worked out very well and I think he can confirm the form with Baile Anrai, who feel when still travelling well enough. Mark Quinlan takes 3lb off his back, and I feel there are question marks about many of the others. He will be our first bet of the National Hunt season proper.

Profit & loss: day: +10.00 / month: +29.90 / year: +9.99

Friday 2nd November 2012

The start of a huge weekend for us, we'll be covering the Breeder's Cup extensively tomorrow but I like to take a look at how the track is riding on the Friday and we won't be betting at Santa Anita tonight. Tomorrow's card is stunning, really looking forward to it.

Two selections for Friday evening.

5.15 Wolverhampton Carrera 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

John Hills tends to get a maiden winner or two at this time of year, and he had a 25/1 shot with a very similar profile to this horse run 2nd at Lingfield in a decent maiden yesterday. Carrera made his debut 15 days ago. He is a Derby entry, so 6f at Kempton was always likely to be too sharp for him, he also looked very green but he settled into the race and by the home turn was in contention. There was no turn of foot there, and the impression I got was that they were simply going a stride too quick for him. When he lost his chance, his jockey eased right off and allowed him to come home in his own time. That kindness might be repaid tonight, he steps up to an extended seven furlongs and he is drawn nicely in stall four to get a prominent sit. If he can travel better and handle the early pace, and if he has come on for that first run, he might make his presence felt in the finish and he looks overpriced in what is a poor maiden. Small stakes but he looks good value with Seb Sanders in the plate.

7.15 Wolverhampton Outlaw Torn 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 7/1 (Stan James, betpack.com, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed) - WON @ 17/2

Question marks about many of these, but I think Outlaw Torn looks progressive on the surface. The form of his last two runs here has been franked and I don't think he has been helped by wide draws, last time in particular he had to use a lot of petrol to get the early lead he needs. He pulled really hard and done well to finish third. He is drawn in stall 3 today and should be able to get to the front no problem. I think My Mate Jake might just feel his Doncaster exertions here, and I'm not sure about the rest. Take Outlaw Torn to make all, I fancy him to finish in the first three so we'll play each-way and win.

Profit & loss: day: +25.90 / month: +19.90 / year: -0.01

Thursday 1st November 2012

Some cracking all weather action with two very decent cards - both of which look bound to throw up plenty of winners over the winter ahead and I'll be watching the replays with interest.

Saying that, it is a very difficult day to get a handle on from the point of view of getting an edge on prices. I have spotted two candidates, and we'll play relatively small stakes.

2.50 Lingfield Forgive 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 ( VCBet, Paddy Power, Stan James, Betpack, Ladbrokes, get guaranteed)

You'll find some trainers entering fillies in listed races to gain black type, but Richard Hannon's representatives are generally in it to win it and he places his horses famously well in all non handicaps, not just maidens. Lingfield is no longer riding the way it used to, prominent racers are now dominating and it may be some time before that changes. Not many of these fillies are proven over a mile on the all weather, and Forgive is a notable exception along. She is well drawn, and likes to race prominently, as a filly who looks a galloper rather than a quickener. She should be ideally suited to these conditions, and although she has to improve a bit to win here, some of her rivals may not run to form under these race conditions and at double figure odds, she looks underestimated.

3.50 Lingfield Ligurian Sea 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Boylesports, VCBet, Stan James, Betpack, William Hill, get guaranteed)

Chris Wall's horses are in fine form, and his handicap debutants that have had three starts have a very good record. Ligurian Sea fits this profile, and her trainer is also a dab hand training fillies. Indeed, Wall trained her half sister Rafiqa to win on her fourth start (second handicap start) in 2008 and she ended up rated OR85 after that race. Ligurian switched to Wall from Walter Swinburn, her first run of the year came one month ago at Nottingham where she appeared to need the run, one paced and not asked too many questions. She is a fine looking filly, though, and I would expect plenty of improvement off a handicap mark of OR67 today. Ted Durcan, who rode two winners here yesterday and appears to know what it takes to win at the recently resurfaced course, takes the ride and he has been riding winners for Wall in recent days. The progeny of Medicean have been doing quite well on standard to slow ground lately at both Kempton and Lingfield which have both been resurfaced, and although I have no stats to hand and the sample size is small, it is quite interesting. There are some very average older horses in here, and if the selection is fit and ready to put her best foot forward, I would suggest the favourite is probably her main danger. Double figures are again too big.

Profit & loss: day: -6.00 / month: -6.00 / year: -25.91

Wednesday 31st October 2012

Two selections for this evening.

6.35 Kempton Kalokagathia 4pts win @ 7/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, guaranteed, 13/2 Generally guaranteed)

Represents Jo Crowley whose string tend to go very well on the all weather and at Kempton and Lingfield (before resurfacing) in particular. Kalokagathia has been off for a few months but Jo tends to have her horses fit enough to do themselves justice first time back and it looks like the selection has been kept fresh with a winter campaign in mind. He is unlucky not to have gotten his head in front already, and the form of his third run, a maiden at this track, is working out quite well. In fact I think he is a very genuine horse, and likely to serve it up to the favourite if on song. The absence and the stable's recent form are negatives, but I reckon if Jo had had a few recent winners this fella would be more like 7/2 against the favourite - he has the form to win this and the odds are very fair.

7.05 Kempton Rich Forever 3pts win @ 14/1 (Totesport, Betfred, guaranteed, 12/1 Generally guaranteed)

James Bethell has done well lately with his runners on the all weather, and he sent Steelriver down here to win a maiden impressively last month. Rich Forever makes the trip down from North Yorkshire tonight and it is interesting connections have taken the trouble to book Mikael Barzalona. He was entered in a listed race last time out but made no impact on soft ground. The return to nursery company and the switch to a more forgiving surface which he should handle could see him put in an improved performance here. He won at Newcastle on his penultimate start and I felt he was quite impressive, he is a nice size of a horse and I would suggest there is scope beyond his current mark of OR77. A wide draw tempers enthusiasm somewhat, but in a race that looks ripe for an upset (I don't fancy the favourite!) he looks a decent value bet at 12/1+.

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Good profits on the day yesterday with Unknown Villain landing another punt, the early 8/1 and 15/2 we took was too big either way. Bonne Amie was a non runner which is disappointing, because that maiden looked really poor and I'm not sure about that favourite! Parisian Pyramid led but faded tamely, the Williams yard have yet to find the key to him but I think they will before long.

One race of interest for this afternoon, and possible evening selections - details on those before 5.00pm either way - we won't be betting in either of the 10 furlong handicaps which kickstart Kempton's card.

3.45 Lingfield 

Daliance 4pts win @ 7/1 (VC Bet, William Hill, guaranteed, 13/2 generally guaranteed)

Emerald Wilderness 2pts win @ 16/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, Paddy Power, independents, guaranteed)

Daliance is a smashing looking son of Dalakhani from the in form Dascombe yard. He remains unexposed at middle distances on this surface, his two runs at twelve furlongs on the all weatherhave yielded a win and two career best RPR's of 85 and 90. He is well treated off OR83 and don't forget thr three year old allowance of a generous 7lb, which is daylight robbery at this time of year. The selection was held up off what looked a slow pace last time out, but the final time was faster than standard which muddies the waters somewhat in terms of pace analysis. Daliance was held up in last, and made really good ground on the inside, crucially away from the two horses who came down the outer and finished first and second. His run petered out but I would suggest he may have been racing on the wrong part of the track that evening. He is given another chance in this competitive race, and I would like to see him race a bit handier. Anything around 6/1 or better looks decent value and his jockey is riding extremely well at present.

Emerald Wilderness looks overpriced at around 16/1. He is a multiple all weather winner and can be forgiven a poor run last time out because I don't think heavy ground is his thing. Previous to that he won well over eleven furlongs on good to firm, he is clearly well in himself and a mark of OR92 doesn't look insurmountable for a horse of his class on this surface. He is of particular interest if this is slowly run, his proven turn of foot over ten furlongs might be enough to outspeed the stayers down the lingfield home straight if they go a conservative gallop.

Profit & loss: day: -13.00 / month: +26.70 / year: -19.91

Tuesday 30th October 2012

A nice winner yesterday with Kuwait Star landing some decent bets at Redcar.

Three at Wolverhampton this evening.

4.40 Wolverhampton Unknown Villain 4pts win @ 8/1 (Stan James, betpack.com, guaranteed, 15/2 generally guaranteed) - WON

Represents Tom Dascombe, whose stable are in good form. Their horses go well here, and Unknown Villain is selected on the basis of his promising debut at Haydock. That debut came on very soft ground over a mile, he cruised into contention in the manner of a decent horse and was travelling really well until the two pole, when he began to fade. He wasn't subjected to too hard a race once his chance had gone, and a break of eleven days would suggest he has taken that race well and is ready to run again. There is some influence on his dam's side which suggests he should go well on the all weather, and his sire gets good horses on pretty much every surface. The step back to seven furlongs looks a positive here and he might have more speed than some of the others who look like three year olds in the making. 15/2+ is very fair, personally I will probably trade off at around evens in running given the fact that others with superior stamina might be challenging late on, but given the right ride and a moderate pace, I think the selection can take the beating unless the unraced favourite is very smart.

5.10 Wolverhampton Bonne Amie 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - Non Runner

A less obvious one from Tom Dascombe's stable. Longer term Strikeline clients will remember we tipped Dascombe's good two filly Adorable Choice when she broke her maiden at Lingfield at 33/1 this time last year. That was her third run, and I pointed out at the time that it was interesting Tom had sent her over for a valuable sales race in Ireland. Although she no showed, it suggested they thought a bit of her.  I find it more than coincidental that Bonne Amie was sent to Deauville on debut for a £10,000 maiden for unraced fillies, with Gerald Mosse booked. The horse who finished behind her that day has since won twice, including the Prix Marcel Boussac (Group 1) on Arc day. It looked a very deep race and it is interesting she was sent to contest it. A poor run at Hamilton last time out is readily excused due to heavy ground, which her sire's progeny tend not to act on. Indeed, their performances improve markedly on artificial surfaces and it makes sense to sent Bonne Amie to Wolverhampton this evening. She has a good draw in stall four and if she is allowed to bowl along, I think she has a decent chance of a bold show despite her odds. I'm not sure the odds on favourite is crying out for a step up in trip and I'm happy to take him on.

7.40 Wolverhampton Parisian Pyramid 4pts win @ 10/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Ian Williams excels with horses who have had breathing problems, and the application of a tongue tie last time out would suggest the selection has been suffering with such problems. I have seen Ian try this with horses before unsuccessfully, the yard have some top vets working for them and they have numerous ways of treating horses with wind problems. Tongue Tie's don't always work, Tourist for example was heavily backed on his debut for Ian's yard last summer, having had breathing problems, but he resented the tongue tie and didn't show up. They took it off and he went close next time out, afterwards picking up a couple of races before unfortunately suffering a fatal heart attack on course. It is interesting the money has come for Parisian Pyramid, so, with the tongue tie and head gear removed, and Jamie Spencer booked. Diman Waters (who is tempting, but becoming a bit of a cliff horse for me!) will probably be allowed to bowl along today from stall one, and a decent pace could see the selection benefit from a typical Spencer hold up ride. If he is able to put his best foot forward, ratings suggest he is the best handicapped horse in the race and 10/1 is a fair price.

Profit & loss: day: +26.00 / month: +39.70 / year: -6.91

Monday 29th October 2012

One race of interest for Monday. Some great jumping action too which I'll be watching with interest - really looking forward to the National Hunt season getting back into full swing.

3.10 Redcar 

Quan 3pts win @ 9/1 (VC Bet, Paddy Power, William Hill, independents - guaranteed)

Kuwait Star 2pts win @ 14/1 (Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, www.betpack.com, independents - guaranteed) - WON

An interesting maiden for older horses, neither of the top two in the market can be described as rock solid and I'm keen to take them on. Make sure to get guaranteed prices here as either selection may drift.

Quan represents a stable who do well with three year olds. His sire gets plenty of runners who handle soft and heavy ground, and it is interesting he runs again in maiden company despite being assigned a mark of OR58. He was not inexpensive, but he has looked a bit of a nutter and a slow learner in three runs to date. However, there was abundant promise in his last run at Pontefract. He pulled really hard in the early stages but ran all the way to the line to finish third (albeit well beaten) behind two half decent horses. His early exertions really took their toll in the closing stages and the distance he was beaten doesn't tell the full story. He steps back to seven furlongs this afternoon and if he is more professional, he can go close. The stable 5lb claimer takes the ride, it was he who got a tune out of the horse last time out and he rates good value for his allowance.

Kuwait Star is by a sire who seems to be favoured by trainer Jason Ward. Resplendent Glory isn't a prolific stallion by any means but he is tending to get progeny who win on soft and heavy ground. Kuwait Star showed promise in a Thirsk maiden, pulling clear of the field to finish fourth behind two OR80+ types, one who has won impressively since, the winner unraced since, and another horse who ran once disappointingly. He had a short break before reappearing at Wolverhampton the other day, where the market gave him no chance. He showed up for a few furlongs before fading and it may be he was out for a gallop. He reappears quickly but the ground will suit him and the booking of Ted Durcan is an interesting one. At 14/1, he looks like a bit of value and the market close to the off will probably tell if he is fancied against his stablemate who happens to be second favourite.

Profit & loss: day: +25.00 / month: +13.70 / year: -32.91

Saturday 27th October 2012

A nice winner this afternoon, two for this evening on a decent Wolverhampton card.

6.15 Wolverhampton McMonagle 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

The presence of Burnhope and Above Standard here would suggest a strong early pace is likely, and that might play into the hands of the quirky McMonagle, who looks fairly handicapped off OR70 and seems to be running in to form. He pulled like a train for most of the race last time out over seven furlongs here, but there is little doubt he acts well on the surface and given his early exertions he done well to finish second behind Sunley Pride. Robert Winston takes the ride again and I would imagine it was his suggestion to drop back to six furlongs. I think that might make the difference, and if the favourite, who looked plotted up last time out, fails to come on for that run, then the selection could be the one to take advantage at double figure odds.

6.45 Wolverhampton Red Senor 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 11/1 (William Hill, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd

Robert Winston's second and final ride at the track tonight. Red Senor didn't go on much in the summer, but by far his best performance came on polytrack when easily beating Christopher Chua by 2 3/4 lengths at Lingfield in March. His turf form leaves a lot to be desired, but the progeny of his sire Red Clubs have an 18% strike rate at this track, and I think he may have been put away with a winter campaign in mind. It is also of interest that he has not been gelded. He is well drawn in stall five, and the race definitely looks like one he can win if turning up fit and ready to go.

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Two races of interest for Saturday afternoon. We may have an additional evening bet, details will be released at 5.00pm either way.

2.30 Doncaster

Captain Dunne 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 14/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Power, brucebetting.com, other independents - all pay 1/4 5 places guaranteed - or take SP with Skybet)

Barnet Fair 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 22/1 (Skybet, 1/4 5 places, 20/1 Bet 365 1/4 5 places guaranteed, or take guaranteed prices with bookies paying 5 places) - Non Runner

A really interesting sprint and with bookmakers clamouring for business by offering 5 places each-way, it makes sense to play each-way. Bet 365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Bruce Betting and many independent bookmakers offer the five places and I've indicated above the best ways of placing your bets.

We witnessed the re-education of Captain Dunne at York last time when he was held up, differing to his usual style of front running. He came home really strongly to take second place behind Pearl Blue, and I would suggest connections will try the same tactics this afternoon. He has run some admirable races at Doncaster down the years, beaten 1 1/4 lengths by Prohibit in a listed race and 3/22 in the Portland leading two furlongs out. Statistics show that it is harder to be in the lead two furlongs from home and win at Doncaster than any other track in the U.K., so you have to think those decent runs were despite the track and not because he has been suited by it. The recent change in tactics is the key here, drawn in stall 17 he is close to pace horses like Judge N Jury (how many times have we mentioned him in this context this season!), Move In Time, and Moorehouse Lad so he should get a good tow into the race. Off a handicap mark of OR95 I would expect him to finish strongly and hopefully get up close home.

Barnet Fair has improved all season and I think his lack of popularity in the markets here is down to a perception that he won't go on soft ground. I find sometimes that unless ground is very extreme, it can be particular to a track and if a horse goes at the track once, he can sometimes get away with ground he wouldn't normally act on at that course again. The selection ran a hell of a race in last year's Portland, but was all over the track and never landed a blow. His fourth in this year's race came when he got a really poor ride, far too prominent with little cover, and he faded to finish fourth. He is all speed and if Robbie Fitzpatrick can get a similar tow into the race to Captain Dunne (drawn next door in stall 16) then I think he has the ability to cause a minor shock. The stable are in form again and their horses are routinely underbet.

2.45 Newbury

Hazel Lavery 2pts each-way @ 12/1 (Bet 365, Totesport, Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 11/1 William Hill, Boylesports guaranteed) - WON

Khione 1pt each-way @ 28/1 (Bet 365, Stan James, betpack.com, Coral - all pay 1/4 odds 3 places)

A really interesting Group 3 which has been won by the fairer sex three times in the last ten runnings. Many of these horses seem to come into this race as an afterthought, ie. it is not the focal point of their seasons, and it is hard to win a Group 3 contest on heavy ground unless 100% ready. For that reason I'm happy to take on some of the name horses in the line up and am siding with two fillies who I think have excellent chances of progressing and handling the prevailing ground conditions. 1/4 odds are paid each-way by numerous bookmakers, I would suggest betting with them.

Hazel Lavery has apparently had this race as her target since Doncaster last time out. She looks to be improving with each run and is by Excellent Art, whose progeny have an awesome 22% strike rate on heavy ground. The weight allowances she receives as a three year old will be invaluable and it is interesting connections are keen to take on Hawaafez again. Eddie Ahern takes the ride.

Khione represents Luca Cumani who trained the fourth in the race last year. She would be a surprise winner but she looks all about stamina and I have little doubt that heavy ground will see her improve. Her trainer does not tilt at windmills and, although there can be a temptation to enter these fillies in the hope of grabbing some black type, this horse still looks to be progressive and is probably overpriced given that she is unexposed in these conditions. We'll have a smaller bet at the prices.

Profit & loss: day: +22.50 / month: -11.30 / year: -57.91