Saturday 23rd June 2012

A small profit on the day yesterday with Black Spirit going close at 25/1 and taking each-way money.

The most interesting card of the meeting is today from our point of view, we have various interests.

3.05 Royal Ascot - Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) - 

Sea Moon 5pts win @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

Has drifted to a very backable price overnight. The Stoute stable was bang out of form when Sea Moon made his seasonal reappearance, but they've now hit much more like their optimum run to form level and it is very heartening that Sea Moon put his head down and battled against Dandino at Goodwood last time in a slowly run, messy affair where he had to make his own running which does not suit him. It suggested to me (unlike many others who watched it and just took the narrow winning margin out of it) that the horse is well and should progress during his four year old campaign. I would suggest Stoute has a tilt at the King George in mind for this son of Beat Hollow, before a possible tilt at the Arc and then another trip to America all going well. On figures he is the class act here, and he will need to land this Group 2 in some style if the later season campaign is to come to fruition. 7/2 is an over reaction to an apparently below average first run of the season, snap it up.

3.45 Royal Ascot - Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1)

Already Advised - Moonlight Cloud 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (in two places, 9/1 and 8/1 was generally available 1/4 odds 3 places) - E/W 2nd

The ground is probably just coming against us again here, but Moonlight Cloud is a class act on her day and she looks the most likely winner behind Black Caviar. She will be fine on the ground but we had hoped the forecast bog might materialise and go against the Aussie mare. Still, Ascot is a funny track and Black Caviar is not drawn ideally so we still have a chance. I have no form reason to back Society Rock this year, those of you who are with us a long time will know we had him each-way at 50/1 when he was second two years ago, and at 33/1 when he won last year. Last year's renewal was a little below average and I expect Moonlight Cloud, who was unlucky behind Deacon Blues over course and distance last backend and won her prep for this three weeks ago, to run a place at least.

4.25 Royal Ascot - Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) - 

Hawkeyethenoo 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed with 5 places, 20/1 generally guaranteed take use 5 places bookmaker) - E/W 3rd

Drying ground is in Hawkeyethenoo's favour and, belatedly, he looks the handicap bet of the week for me. He has won over five furlongs in the past and he travels so well in his races that I have long made a note to support him when he drops back to a stiff six furlongs, which he gets here. He reappeared last month over 7f here behind Global Village, but he was drawn on the wrong part of the track and it really caught my eye that he was hard on the bridle until the two pole. His finishing effort petered out a little bit on soft ground over the trip, but I think today's ground and six furlongs will see him at his very best. This has been his target all year and, provided his draw in the middle doesn't cause him problems, I fancy him to run a huge race. 20/1 is far too big.

5.00 Royal Ascot - Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap - 

Alkimos 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 4th

Represents a stable whose horses are now bang in form (despite little fanfare), and whose representatives have nearly all run very well here this week. The selection is said to have shown little this year at home, so there is reason to be cautious, but he wouldn't be the first horse to get the twinkle back in his eye when returned to Royal Ascot, and he won't be the last either. His knee action suggests he needs just a little cut in the ground to be seen at his best, and again I think today's ground might just be ideal for him. His second in last year's Tencentenary Stakes reads very well - winner Pisco Sour won a Group 2 next time out, the third won a listed race convincingly at Newmarket last October, the fourth went on to run second in the Groupn 3 Strensall stakes, the list of successes goes on down through the also rans. Alkimos has since left Luca Cumani and it didn't really seem like Meydan suited him during the winter, although he didn't run at all badly. As a result he has dropped to a handicap mark of OR101 which looks very dangerous if he rediscovers his form. On the subject of rediscovering form, Silvestre De Sousa is now back amongst the winners, he takes the ride, will be itching to post a Royal Ascot win, and will be full of confidence again after a recent fallow period.

Profit & loss: day: +30.50 / month: +84.91 / year: -206.16

Friday 22nd June 2012

We were unlucky when Ever Roses got badly bumped yesterday and lost all chance, Eastward Ho won gamely and landed us a small profit on the day. We made the correct decision in leaving Ascot alone.

Two bets at Royal Ascot today.

3.45 Royal Ascot - Coronation Stakes (Group 1) - Laugh Out Loud 4pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

I don't expect Homecoming Queen to make all today and to be honest I don't fancy her anyway. Apart from the O'Brien filly, there is no real pace in the race bar Laugh Out Loud, who likes to stride on and has the perfect pilot to judge the pace in Frankie Dettori. She should handle the ground well, and the form of her recent win in Chantilly looks strong. Looking at the make up of this race, it seems plenty are chancing their arms for a bit of black type and I make it between the top three in the betting. Samitar won at this meeting last year but might be better on better ground, added to that Laugh Out Loud boasts the most progressive profile. If Dettori gets the run of the race here, 9/2 might look big after the race.

4.25 Royal Ascot - Wolferton Handicap - Black Spirit 2pts win @ 25/1 (Generally) AND 2pts place @ Betfair SP (pays 4 places) - Placed @ 4.98

Gatewood was impressive at Epsom but Black Spirit is beginning to look very well handicapped off a mark of OR100 for a trainer whose horses are only just beginning to come into form. He is 7lb better off for 1 1/4 lengths with Gatewood on the Epsom form, and it has to be taken into consideration that he excels with a stiff finish - all his best form is at Sandown and here at Ascot, where he won his maiden. He should handle the ground and if he can run to something like 8lb better than his handicap mark, it could be enough to get him involved. He has stall 12 to overcome, but he doesn't need to be handy and is usually happy to creep into the race. 25/1 + looks a very big price. I would hope all our clients have a betfair account at this stage, advice is to put the place part of the bet on at Betfair SP - the markets are liquid enough at this meeting that our service shouldn't affect the price too much, I would expect we'll get 7/2 at the very least for four places.

Profit & loss: day: +1.60 / month: +54,41 / year: -236.66

Thursday 21st June 2012

Again yesterday we hit the bar at Ascot, bet of the day Sovereign Debt was drawn in the wrong part of the track and also received a poor ride before finishing best of all, just outside the places.

I was also highly annoyed that SIS reported him as a non runner. To be honest, I did fancy Justineo in the race but thought Sovereign Debt had a smashing chance, and it was only upon hearing Sovereign Debt was a non runner that I posted a small bet on Justineo. In the event, everyone's bets were on, and we lost three more points than we should have.

The quite sad news today is that I have decided we won't be betting at Royal Ascot this afternoon. I have held off as long as possible, and there is more rain coming in from the south, we have been given no clear definition of what the ground is like, and having hauled back over 100pts in the last few weeks, I am completely against the idea of losing anything more to a silly pace or track bias which is unreadable before the race, or to ground which is a little better or worse than we had expected. Picking winners gets easier the more scientifically you treat it, and given that we're unable to draw definite conclusions today, we're sitting Ascot out. As it happens, I think Fame And Glory should win the Gold Cup and I was happy to be against The Fugue, but I won't make solid recommendations with the conditions in mind.

We have two bets at Ripon, however, which looks altogether more predictable.

5.10 Ripon Ever Roses 2pts each-way AND 2pts win @ 9/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Down to the bare eight here and with the rain at Ripon having changed the going, Ever Roses becomes a confident choice. She is a filly in against the boys, but there are three fillies, a mare, and four geldings in here so it doesn't make much difference to me. The selection received a very conspicuous ride last time out at Newcastle, a bit of a Midgeley/Fenton special, and she was never really asked to win (strange arm movements, never pulled out and asked for an effort). She has dropped a pound in the handicap for that, and having posted RPR's of 59 and 60 already this season, she looks capable of defying OR58 in this poor contest. The favourite looks solid enough form wise, but he is not to be trusted in a finish and must be taken on as a result. I don't think Captain Scooby is quite ready to win looking at Sandown evidence, many of the others are out of form but Ever Roses stuck out for me. She improved in her three year old season for the fitting of a visor, winning on heavy at Newcastle, and tends to run her best after a few weeks break (as she is today). There is pace on the rail here and I think she will get a tow into the race and the booking of P.J. McDonald is the icing on the cake.

5.40 Ripon Eastward Ho 4pts win @ 9/4 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

His profile has a progressive look to it and Eastward Ho should be more like 7/4fav here in my view. He confirmed he is as good on turf last time when battling on into second at Beverley having set a strong pace. His form looks more solid than Ela Gonda Mou's, and Tony Hamilton rides this track really well (fine judge of pace around here). The price is short enough but everything stacks up on the formbook and there is a case to be made that he should be shorter in this company, 4pts to win.

Profit & loss: day: +3.00 / month: +52.81 / year: -238.26

Wednesday 20th June 2012

Hopefully most of you got paid the four places on Medicean Man yesterday, apart from that our selections ran really well without winning - our two biggest bets Hermival and Cristoforo Columbo were second and third respectively. I try not to moan too much about jockeys but I think Benoit gave Hermival an absolute shocker and I think we should have won there. I hinted after the 2,000 Guineas that we'd punt the horse heavily under the right circumstances but the stake was only 4pts because the jockey's lack of Ascot experience had been factored into the staking.

We may have an evening bet this evening and keep an eye out for day 3 price alerts as the day goes on.

2.30 Royal Ascot - Jersey Stakes (Group 3) - 

Sovereign Debt 2pts each-way AND 1pt win NON RUNNER

Justineo 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 33/1 (Use a bookmaker paying 4 places, take S.P. if you can't get 33/1 or better)

A huge field for this year's renewal. Sovereign Debt looks the bet of the day here, unbeaten in two runs at the course, progressive, and trained by a trainer whose 3yos excel at this meeting. He won very, very easily last time out over course and distance and although he steps up in class today, everything about the run suggested it was time for him to step up in grade. He looked a proper Ascot horse, travelling well in behind the pace before finding a ready turn of foot to win. Jamie Spencer rides and he has a very good record at this meeting.

If there is to be a surprise, it may come from Justineo who looks a late developer. He is a fine looking son of Oasis Dream, whose progeny have a strong record at this course, and there was plenty to like about his Epsom run last time. He didn't handle the track at all, and a straight, galloping seven furlongs with a stiff finish should suit better. William Haggas has taken the trouble to book Frankie Dettori and he may be well drawn in the centre.

3.45 Royal Ascot - 150th Anniversary of the Price Of Wales's Stakes

Betting w/o So You Think - Sri Putra 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Paddy Power and Ladbrokes only)

I think So You Think might just edge this but I have to say I'm not a Carlton House fan and I wasn't that impressed by his return at Sandown. I can't have Planteur on the quickening ground, and the Godolphin horse has it all to prove and is underpriced. Sri Putra finished ahead of Planteur last year, and connections have alluded to the fact that these Championship races bring out the best of him, with the strong pace almost guaranteed. There is a pacemaker in here today and Neil Callan can be expected to ride Sri Putra for prize money. When others have cried enough having tussled with the favourite, Sri Putra will be staying on and he looks far too big at 40/1 on the without markets. Basically he has to finish in the first three of ten, if he does we get paid at 8/1 for the place part of the bet which is very fair.

4.25 Ascot - Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap)

Bonnie Brae 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 18/1 (Betfred, 5 places guaranteed, 16/1 generally take 5 places guaranteed)

Trade Storm 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Bet 365, Boylesports, 5 places, or take 20/1 5 places with VC Bet, Paddy Power)

A minefield as ever but two stick out for me, both are drawn on opposite sides of the track but a few horses off the rail so there is less fear of them being stranded should they split into two or even three groups. Bonnie Brae is a 5yo mare who is in the form of her life and ran a fine race over seven furlongs on soft ground here last time behind Global Village. I think she will be fine on today's ground and unlike many of these, she has proven recent form on her side. If she turns up in the same form here and is ridden with a little more restraint, I think she will go very close.

Trade Storm is drawn on the near side and there was plenty to like about his recent effort at York, where he was given an easy time of it once his chance had gone. He was 5th behind Sagramor at last year's Royal meeting and I wouldn't be surprised if David Simcock, who had a horse run really well here yesterday, elicited further improvement from him. He has booked the excellent William Buick and he is another who is overpriced at 25/1.

Profit & loss: day: -14.00 / month: +49.81 / year: -241.26

Tuesday 19th June 2012

A jaw dropping card at Royal Ascot is our singular focus today.

2.30 Ascot - The Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) -  Betting w/o Frankel: Excelebration to win @ 11/10 (William Hill, Evens generally)

I'm hoping the great Frankel wins this in style, a possible caveat being his performance second time out last year when he only touched off Zoffany, but he got a terrible ride that day and may have been knackered after his incredible 2,000 Guineas performance. Other than that, I see no reason why he can't win this in the manner to which we have become accustomed. If you have to have a bet, I think Excelebration is fitter than Strong Suit, and looks a bit ahead of the rest, even money or better looks fair and Ladbrokes are giving you the clue that Excelebration is fit and well by ducking him in this market. However, for the purposes of our accounts there is no recommended staked bet here.

3.05 Royal Ascot - The Kings Stand Stakes (Group 1)

Medicean Man 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, 1/4 odds 4 places - Boylesports, Ladbrokes, William Hill, guaranteed) - E/W 4th  

Secret Asset 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Paddy Power, 1/4 odds 4 places - 40/1 generally guaranteed)

Wizz Kid 2pts win @ 6/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, 11/2 generally)

A fascinating renewal and great to see a huge field - it seems Prohibit's victory last year has inspired British trainers from Musselburgh to Brighton to throw their sprint handicappers in here and give it a whirl. Saying that, class is what usually wins this race, and the four year old French filly Wizz Kid has that in spades. Her victory last time out was very impressive, and she wasn't just beating trees - Stepper Point is no slouch. Her run style (strong travelling with a finishing kick) is well suited to the demands of this track and fillies have a decent record in this contest. 11/2 or better is fair. She is drawn on a part of the track which is generally favoured in this race, but we can't be positive about any bias or lack thereof until after day one. 

It might seem excessive selecting three horses in one race, but a six point outlay isn't too much and Medicean Man and Secret Asset are must bets at the prices. They are also drawn on either side of the track which may be a good thing if an unusual bias does exist after the recent rain - having said that, I have basically ignored the draw in my selection process because to do otherwise is simply guesswork. Medicean Man is an Ascot specialist, who revels in travelling into a race off a strong pace at this course and sprinting up the stiff finish. This is obviously a step up in class but he might just be up to it and he won't lack for cruising speed. Secret Asset is a similar type of horse. A seven year old, he has found improvement in recent years since moving to Jane Chapple Hyam's yard, and a straight five with a stiff finish is ideal for him in my view. He was beaten only a short neck in last year's Prix De L'Abbeye, and his recent run over six furlongs in Kranji on soft ground was promising. If he gets a good tow into the race, he can finish best of all and he is far too big at 40/1.

3.45 Royal Ascot - The St. James's Palace Stakes (Group 1) - Hermival 4pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

I hinted after the 2,000 Guineas that the best horse on the day (ie. over a mile at Newmarket) may not have won, and I still think Hermival would have given Camelot a right scare had he raced anywhere near him. As a son of Dubawi, a mile on good or softer are pretty much his ideal conditions, and he gets those again today. A testicular problem was blamed for his poor showing at the Curragh in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, but the ground was very quick that day (faster than the official "Good" in my opinion) and he changed his legs numerous times, likely for one of the aforementioned two reasons! The progeny of Dubawi have a very good record at Ascot, and I expect a much improved showing from Hermival today. I am surprised he is not second favourite, it seems the Newmarket run has been forgotten - take out the Curragh run and you have a very progressive young colt under what should be ideal conditions. He is drawn well in stall 2 and is too big at 10/1+.

4.25 Royal Ascot - Coventry Stakes (Group 2) - 

Cristoforo Columbo 4pts win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Master Of War 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Bet 365, 1/4 4 places guaranteed, 40/1 generally guaranteed)

Sir Prancealot was impressive and indeed looked very special at Sandown, but he pulled really hard and looked very speedy to be getting six furlongs here at this stage of his career. Dawn Approach looks a bit of a grinder and galloper to me and may not be suited by the demands of this contest in my view. I can't quite believe Cristoforo Columbo is not shorter than 6/1, though, and again one has to take the hint that Ladbrokes, who have such a good line of information on these O'Brien trained horses, duck him completely and offer only 9/2. I was tremendously impressed with his debut, he looked a very intelligent horse, and really well put together with plenty of muscle on him. He broke well, travelled easily, and quickened under hands and heels when asked by Joseph O'Brien. He looked for all the world as though the run would bring him on and I think he may just be one of O'Brien's best two year olds, even at this relatively early stage of the season.

At a much bigger price, Master War is selected each-way, despite a potentially hazardous draw in stall 1 (who knows, it may be an advantage). He represents the Hannon team, and the manner of his win at Haydock last time out really impressed me. He travelled well, and quickened beautifully when asked, putting the race to bed quickly and running fairly straight and true right to the line. Horses who last ran at Haydock have a history of doing well at Royal Ascot, and the selection's damsire is Elnadim, whose progeny have a good record at the track (although I don't have stats for his record as a damsire). Added to that, two year olds with two runs under their belt sent off at odds of 17/2 or better backed each-way have a record of 28/167 (won or were placed) at this meeting since 2006, returning a profit of +£101. Clearly, horses with this profile are underbet and it is also interesting that Richard Hannon's lesser fancied two year olds are profitable to back blind at the meeting. He is on record as saying the horse worked tremendously the other day and, having been set to go to Chepstow or Bath, was upgraded to the Royal Ascot team. He may just be at the stage in his career where he is improving all the time and as a result I'm keen on backing him each-way at 40/1. Bet 365 offer 1/4 odds 4 places.

5.00 Ascot - Ascot Stakes (Handicap) - Veiled each-way @ 12/1 (Generally)

No account bet recommended here, but Veiled won this last year and despite carrying a big weight there is little reason she can't get in the first four today and she makes some each-way appeal.

5.35 Ascot - Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) - Pay Freeze to win @ 6/1 (Generally)

Mick Channon's Pay Freeze has the right credentials to win this having impressed when winning last time out. However, with the draw an unknown and luck playing a big part, no account bet is recommended.

Profit & loss: day: -16.00 / month: +63.81 / year: -227.26

Saturday 16th June 2012

Very little of interest today and we've just the one selection at Sandown who looks a little overpriced.

We'll take tomorrow off from a daily racing point of view but keep an eye on e-mails over the weekend, it's all about Royal Ascot from here on in and I expect an ante post selection or two before Tuesday. Plenty of notice will be given as always.

2.20 Sandown Quick Bite 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Just the seven runners here now but I'm happy to take 4/1 on the place bet for this filly to finish in the first two. She represents the in form Hugo Palmer, a trainer who is beginning to get some good horses and his reputation is growing as the weeks pass. This filly was highly tried last year, including when sent to Ireland and sent off just 16/1 for the big sales race won by Seanie. She handles soft and heavy ground very well, and started coming to hand around this time last year. Her run at Windsor last time in a decent handicap entitles her to respect here. She was too keen, the race was muddling, and things didn't pan out her way. Ian Mongan sent her to the front with a quick move coming around the bend and ordinarily I would expect her to fade badly, but to her credit she battled on having been sent slear and finished sixth, beaten 6 1/2 lengths. There was enough in that performance to suggest she can pick up a race like this, the market looks a bit skewed by representatives from the likes of Gosden and Stoute's yard who don't look stars of the stable. She has been dropped 2lb for that run to a mark of OR78, the step back one furlong will suit, ground will suit well, and the stable 7lb claimer, who is improving this year, is value for his allowance. At 16/1, she is overpriced.

Profit & loss: day: -3.00 / month: +79.81 / year: -211.26

Friday 15th June 2012

Just one for tonight.

7.25 Goodwood Great Expectations 5pts win @ 11/4 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 5/2 generally guaranteed)

Keen to take on Moretta Blance and Corporal Maddox here, both of whom finished well last time out, but I think the form and tactical durability of Great Expectations might see John Jenkins' charge get his head in front tonight. He handles soft ground well, and ran very well in a good Newmarket handicap to finish second to Highland Colori last time out. If his jockey can ride him a little handier in this smaller field, I think he looks good value to win of a handicap mark which probably won't last long.

Profit & loss: day: -5.00 / month: +82.81 / year: -208.26

Thursday 14th June 2012

Another nice winner last night, and we remain in excellent form..

Two races of interest for today.

2.50 Newbury

Inniscastle Boy 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Beauchamp Castle 2pts win @ 11/1 (Vc Bet, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

An interesting little handicap and I'm keen enough to take on the top three in the market because two of them haven't done it on turf, and the favourite brings questionable Chepstow form into the race. Inniscastle Boy ran a decent race last time out at Newmarket on ground he might have found plenty fast enough, and despite being rousted for most of the journey he stuck in there until a furlong from home. If he finds improvement for the softer ground today and comes here in better form (as most of the stable now are), he can go close at rewarding double figure odds. Beauchamp Castle has been spotted running out of stamina over middle distances, and she is worth the chance to confirm the promise of her Kempton win in March back over a mile. Her ability to act on turf has to be taken on trust, but she has first time blinkers to focus her and William Buick is an eye catching booking for a stable who have had two winners and a second from three recent runners. 

3.05 Nottingham Depden 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 50/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, Coral, Independents - 40/1 generally guaranteed, 1/4 odds available www.brucebetting.com)

Depden could be a horse who simply has no ability, but he looked in his three maiden runs like a horse with physical scope, and he showed raw speed in two of those runs before fading very badly. He shaped like a horse with a physical or other breathing problem, and it is interesting this decent trainer perseveres with him after a long absence. Depden is by Captain Rio and is a half brother to the stable's good sprinter Cheveton, so he is bred for this job. Statistics suggest the trainer tends to have his horses ready to run well even after absences like this, and the trainer himself is profitable to follow - his horses are routinely underestimated. This looks a poor race, and off a plater's mark with a good claimer taking 3lb off, he is worth backing at massive odds of 40/1+.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: +87.81 / year: -203.26

Wednesday 13th June 2012

Three selections for this evening.

 

6.10 Kempton Catchanova 3pts win @ 15/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

 

Looks well handicapped on her best form and caught the eye at Lingfield on her penultimate run when she finiished really well despite perhaps not receiving the best ride or getting all the luck in running. Her Yarmouth run last time was ok, but she is probably better on this surface and looks a no brainer of a selection in a 0-75 as a triple course and distance winner. It is an apprentice race, and she is drawn a bit wide, so we'll keep the stakes small - having said that she is good value at 15/2+.

 

7.10 Kempton Fast Finian 4pts win @ 5/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

 

An interesting sprint, not least because Gabbiano runs in it and is entered in first time cheekpieces. It wouldn't be a major surprise to see them improve him but he has looked a bit of a thug, and he is probably best avoided. The two fillies, Boudoir and Dressed In Lace, look genuine enough but Fast Finian caught the eye a couple of times during his juvenile campaign (exclusively raced at Dundalk) and he has been bought in by a trainer who has done with acquisitions from other stables in the past - in particular sprinters. He has been gelded, which might help him focus, and if he is ready to rock I think he can improve and beat this lot.

 

8.50 Hamilton Cosmic Halo 4pts win @ 7/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed)

 

Third Half looks underpriced here on the basis of his relation to Brown Panther, and District Attorney didn't show much at Kempton last time - he may improve but looks terrible value at 2/1. Richard Fahey's filly Cosmic Halo looks really good value at the prices here. She won a half decent looking Ripon maiden last time out, impressing with her battling attitude and also with the way she travelled. Being by Halling, she should improve for a further step up in trip and the stiff finish here will suit her down to the ground. Shane B Kelly looks a good booking taking 5lb off, and I think the handicapper has been rather kind in alloting an initial rating of 69.

Profit & loss: day: +13.00 / month: +94.81 / year: -196.26

Tuesday 12th June 2012

Two races of interest this evening.

 

1pt double on today's selections.

 

6.00 Brighton Whitecrest 3pts win @ 5/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)

 

Amazing Win is in fine form but she comes from a family of fast ground horses and her sire tends to get progeny who perform better on quick ground. With Brighton having had plenty of rain, Whitecrest has been well backed as she should handle conditions well, but now that we know the score with the weather she represents value at 9/4 or better. Her run last time was decent, and she may have been inconvenienced by racing alone. We'll also put her in a double with Cheylesmore.

 

9.00 Brighton Cheylesmore 4pts win @ 2/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

 

Loves Brighton and goes well on soft ground. His handicap mark looks fair and his run last time suggested his turn was close. He has ideal conditions tonight and he is preferred to Katmai River.

Profit & loss: day: +4.00 / month: +81.81 / year: -209.26

Saturday 9th June 2012

Two races of interest for this afternoon, and a possible evening bet (5.00pm).

 

2.55 Newmarket

 

Mirza 3pts win @ 9/1 (Bet 365, Betfred, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed) - WON

High Standing 2pts win @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

 

A really interesting sprint, and I'm keen to take on Pearl Ice at the prices because Newmarket's July course is totally different to Ripon and I couldn't back a horse at less than 2/1 in this company returning to action so quickly who is not proven at the track. Mirza looks really good value at 8/1+. Rain softened ground will hold no fears, and his first two runs this year were basically career best performances and he looked an improving performer. He was having his third quick run when disappointing behind Shropshire but has had a 43 day break now which at this stage of the season would simply suggest a refresher. The booking of Richard Hughes, who rides this course really well, takes the eye and there is further room for progression in my view.

 

A flyer is taken on High Standing at a big price. Chester last time out was not his bag, but his previous run on the Rowley course in the Abernant was better than the finishing position suggests. He was blocked in his run twice, it is hard to know if he was unlucky or simply lacked the fortitude to take the gaps, but he was eased when his chance had gone and, having dropped to a mark of OR100, he might be well handicapped enough to get back on track. Cheekpieces are tried and Ryan Moore rides.

 

4.15 Chester Flameoftheforest 4pts win @ 11/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

 

Flameoftheforest represents a stable whose horses are really beginning to fire, and he looks the form horse in this classified claimer. Joe Fanning, one of the best around Chester, is booked and his three runs this season have all offered promise. He doesn't look as good on the all weather (doesn't really quicken on the surface) but his run at Kempton last time suggested he is in good heart and this looks akin to a class drop today. I make him a 4/1 shot tops so I think 11/2 is very fair.

Profit & loss: day: +47.00 / month: +77.81 / year: -213.26

Thursday 7th June 2012

One bet for this afternoon and an evening bet to follow before 5.00pm.

 

4.40 Wolverhampton Mataaleb 5pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

 

There's a chance that a lack of pace in this contest and a lack of tactical nous on Simon Pearce's behalf might scupper this bet, but if the jockey gets it right and they don't crawl, Mataaleb looks extremely tempting from a handicapping point of view here. Formerly with the late Michael Jarvis, he is now trained by Lydia Pearce. Jeff and Lydia have done well down the years with stayers, fillies like Dayia and Ellina come to mind, both of whom won at Wolverhampton backed by us. Mataaleb is a five year old whole horse, and he steps up to an extended 1m5f for the first time tonight. He is bred to stay, being out of Dalakhani by a Green Desert mare who has produced winners up to 1m5f. He seems to do well on the all weather, and the form of his penultimate run is working out really well. The first three home look pattern class and it says a lot for Mataaleb that he managed to come from so far back to get fourth. The pace wasn't manic either, so he wasn't simply passing beaten horses. He has since run respectably at Newmarket over ten furlongs, and been dropped to OR78 by the handicapper which looks lenient. With Pearce taking a further 3lb off, he is of clear interest and if he gets a decent bit of luck in running and a well judged ride, I think he'll win.

Profit & loss: day: +23.50 / month: +30.81 / year: -260.26

Wednesday 6th June 2012

Two for this evening.

 

1pt each-way double on tonight's selections - use a bookmaker who guarantees odds in multiples

 

6.00 Kempton Augustinian 4pts win @ 4/1 (VC Bet, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Stan James)

 

Represents the in form Hannon team, made a nice debut at Lingfield where he matched strides with LAdy Phil, who I rate as a decent early two year old, before paying the price late on. He showed plenty of speed so this sharp five will be no problem. I priced this up as 5/6 the favourite and 5/2 Augustinian, on that basis the 4/1 makes plenty of appeal and we'll also have an each-way double with our second selection.

 

6.30 Kempton Welsh Inlet 3pts win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

 

Won well two starts ago but the saddle slipped last time when we supported her at Brighton. That hasn't been reported (some are saying she hung) but it was plain to me that the saddle was the issue and I've no problem supporting her again. The stable have previous with fillies finding their form and improving having been apparently exposed previously. It does not bother me that she has not won on the all weather, because she wasn't much use on turf last year either. Looks a potential improver and you can't say that about many of these, double figures is too big.

Profit & loss: day: -9.00 / month: +7.31 / year: -283.76

Tuesday 5th June 2012

More quality than quantity again today but we do have one bet.

 

5.05 Yarmouth Authoritarian 4pts win @ 9/2 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 4/1 generally guaranteed)

 

Richard Hannon's stable are flying and they show a 4-13 31% strike rate with their rare visitors to Yarmouth over the last five seasons, returning a profit of +15.07 to level stakes. Willie Twiston Davies, who is improving all the time, is booked to take 7lb off this filly which looks very handy, and she will more than likely handle any ease in the ground brought by the rain currently sweeping into Yarmouth. She turned in a decent effort last time out at Brighton, not really handling the downhill section of the course too well and still looking a bit green. However, she ran on well and was unlucky to get mullered on the rail when making her challenge, in hindsight it wasn't a good move by her jockey to go for a gap that wasn't really there. She steps up to a mile today and looks sure to improve like many of these Authorized three year olds are tending to. 4/1 or better looks fair given the stable form and the standard of the opposition.

Profit & loss: day: -4.00 / month: +16.31 / year: -274.76

Saturday 2nd June 2012

Two winners and a win double yesterday, three selections for Saturday.

 

0.5pts e/w treble on today's selections - get guaranteed prices withPowers, Boyles, William Hill, Bet 365 etc.

 

2.05 Epsom Liber 4pts win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

 

Represents a stable who are in fine form and who have begun to target this meeting in recent years. Liber was very impressive on his second start at Carlisle the other night, travelling well and pulling well clear when challenged in the manner of a horse who has talent and knows his job. Luke Morris is again booked here and there is a very strong likelihood he will try to make all or sit in second place at least. The way he saw out the Carlisle race really impressed me and the step up to six furlongs should be no problem, I expect him to pinch a length on the field and play catch me if you can. 6/1 is too big, I expect him to go off shorter.

 

2.40 Epsom Beaten Up 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

 

William Haggas is in fine form and his Beaten Up looks a colt of some promise - it takes a proper horse to win a Group 3 on third start as a three year old, and this son of Beat Hollow is bred to improve with age and distance. William Haggas' stable have a 17/109 16% strike rate in Group races over the past five seasons, returning a level stakes profit of +27.00. Backing all his horses in that period over 11-12 furlongs resulted in a 26/96 27% strike rate returning +49.45. Those stats speak for themselves. Johnny Murtagh, an expert around here, takes the ride, and he might just get the better of Joseph O'Brien who, excellent as he is, has yet to post an Epsom win.

 

4.00 Epsom - The Investec Derby - Astrology 2pts each-way @ 8/1 (Generally, get 1/4 odds each-way guaranteed) - E/W 3rd

 

I'm not sure on the strength of the Guineas form, and am happy to take Camelot on at short odds. I don't know for sure if Bonfire will stay, and I will err on the side of caution there, so Astrology looks a no-brainer each-way bet for me at 8/1 here. The price is generous considering the stable's recent record with second strings, and the performance this horse put in last time out when crushing an admittedly below par Dee Stakes field by thirteen lengths. Fanfare has been kept to a minimum, which usually means value is at a maximum, and with the breeding (Galileo) on his side and some noteworthy two year old performances in the book, he simply has to be a bet. Ryan Moore is in fine form and takes the ride.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: +20.31 / year: -270.76

Friday 1st June 2012

I have to say I can't see much value at Epsom today and it looks a day to watch rather than get heavily involved in. I do however like the look of one of Hannons, and we'll combine it with one of Channons at Brighton.

 

There is a small chance of an evening bet, will update before 5.30pm.

 

1pt double on today's selections, use a guaranteed odds for multiple bets bookmaker like Paddy Power, Bet 365, Boylesports, William Hill etc. - WON

 

1.50 Brighton Amazing Win 4pts win @ 7/4 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

 

Interesting Channon has gone to the bother of sending Amazing Win down to Brighton from Ayr where she ran yesterday. The selection is improving at sprint distances and was unlucky at Carlisle and to a lesser extent at Ayr yesterday. This looks a bad race and the trip and stiff finish will suit the selection perfectly, as will the fact that The Jailer will tow them into the race. A clever piece of placement and I expect her to drift on course and win, take a guaranteed price as always where possible.

 

4.50 Epsom Producer 4pts win @ 11/4 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

 

A triple winner at Epsom who represents a stable who are now in top gear and look set to dominate in the coming weeks. Richard Hughes takes the ride and, in sync with most of the stable, the selection will come on a bundle for his first run of the year at Newmarket, where he was by no means disgraced behind Stipulate.

Profit & loss: day: +27.31 / month: +27.31 / year: -263.76