Saturday 23rd June 2012

A small profit on the day yesterday with Black Spirit going close at 25/1 and taking each-way money.

The most interesting card of the meeting is today from our point of view, we have various interests.

3.05 Royal Ascot - Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) - 

Sea Moon 5pts win @ 7/2 (Generally, get guaranteed) - WON

Has drifted to a very backable price overnight. The Stoute stable was bang out of form when Sea Moon made his seasonal reappearance, but they've now hit much more like their optimum run to form level and it is very heartening that Sea Moon put his head down and battled against Dandino at Goodwood last time in a slowly run, messy affair where he had to make his own running which does not suit him. It suggested to me (unlike many others who watched it and just took the narrow winning margin out of it) that the horse is well and should progress during his four year old campaign. I would suggest Stoute has a tilt at the King George in mind for this son of Beat Hollow, before a possible tilt at the Arc and then another trip to America all going well. On figures he is the class act here, and he will need to land this Group 2 in some style if the later season campaign is to come to fruition. 7/2 is an over reaction to an apparently below average first run of the season, snap it up.

3.45 Royal Ascot - Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1)

Already Advised - Moonlight Cloud 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 10/1 (in two places, 9/1 and 8/1 was generally available 1/4 odds 3 places) - E/W 2nd

The ground is probably just coming against us again here, but Moonlight Cloud is a class act on her day and she looks the most likely winner behind Black Caviar. She will be fine on the ground but we had hoped the forecast bog might materialise and go against the Aussie mare. Still, Ascot is a funny track and Black Caviar is not drawn ideally so we still have a chance. I have no form reason to back Society Rock this year, those of you who are with us a long time will know we had him each-way at 50/1 when he was second two years ago, and at 33/1 when he won last year. Last year's renewal was a little below average and I expect Moonlight Cloud, who was unlucky behind Deacon Blues over course and distance last backend and won her prep for this three weeks ago, to run a place at least.

4.25 Royal Ascot - Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) - 

Hawkeyethenoo 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 25/1 (Bet 365, guaranteed with 5 places, 20/1 generally guaranteed take use 5 places bookmaker) - E/W 3rd

Drying ground is in Hawkeyethenoo's favour and, belatedly, he looks the handicap bet of the week for me. He has won over five furlongs in the past and he travels so well in his races that I have long made a note to support him when he drops back to a stiff six furlongs, which he gets here. He reappeared last month over 7f here behind Global Village, but he was drawn on the wrong part of the track and it really caught my eye that he was hard on the bridle until the two pole. His finishing effort petered out a little bit on soft ground over the trip, but I think today's ground and six furlongs will see him at his very best. This has been his target all year and, provided his draw in the middle doesn't cause him problems, I fancy him to run a huge race. 20/1 is far too big.

5.00 Royal Ascot - Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap - 

Alkimos 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 20/1 (Generally, get guaranteed) - E/W 4th

Represents a stable whose horses are now bang in form (despite little fanfare), and whose representatives have nearly all run very well here this week. The selection is said to have shown little this year at home, so there is reason to be cautious, but he wouldn't be the first horse to get the twinkle back in his eye when returned to Royal Ascot, and he won't be the last either. His knee action suggests he needs just a little cut in the ground to be seen at his best, and again I think today's ground might just be ideal for him. His second in last year's Tencentenary Stakes reads very well - winner Pisco Sour won a Group 2 next time out, the third won a listed race convincingly at Newmarket last October, the fourth went on to run second in the Groupn 3 Strensall stakes, the list of successes goes on down through the also rans. Alkimos has since left Luca Cumani and it didn't really seem like Meydan suited him during the winter, although he didn't run at all badly. As a result he has dropped to a handicap mark of OR101 which looks very dangerous if he rediscovers his form. On the subject of rediscovering form, Silvestre De Sousa is now back amongst the winners, he takes the ride, will be itching to post a Royal Ascot win, and will be full of confidence again after a recent fallow period.

Profit & loss: day: +30.50 / month: +84.91 / year: -206.16