Two winners and a win double yesterday, three selections for Saturday.
0.5pts e/w treble on today's selections - get guaranteed prices withPowers, Boyles, William Hill, Bet 365 etc.
2.05 Epsom Liber 4pts win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Represents a stable who are in fine form and who have begun to target this meeting in recent years. Liber was very impressive on his second start at Carlisle the other night, travelling well and pulling well clear when challenged in the manner of a horse who has talent and knows his job. Luke Morris is again booked here and there is a very strong likelihood he will try to make all or sit in second place at least. The way he saw out the Carlisle race really impressed me and the step up to six furlongs should be no problem, I expect him to pinch a length on the field and play catch me if you can. 6/1 is too big, I expect him to go off shorter.
2.40 Epsom Beaten Up 4pts win @ 4/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
William Haggas is in fine form and his Beaten Up looks a colt of some promise - it takes a proper horse to win a Group 3 on third start as a three year old, and this son of Beat Hollow is bred to improve with age and distance. William Haggas' stable have a 17/109 16% strike rate in Group races over the past five seasons, returning a level stakes profit of +27.00. Backing all his horses in that period over 11-12 furlongs resulted in a 26/96 27% strike rate returning +49.45. Those stats speak for themselves. Johnny Murtagh, an expert around here, takes the ride, and he might just get the better of Joseph O'Brien who, excellent as he is, has yet to post an Epsom win.
4.00 Epsom - The Investec Derby - Astrology 2pts each-way @ 8/1 (Generally, get 1/4 odds each-way guaranteed) - E/W 3rd
I'm not sure on the strength of the Guineas form, and am happy to take Camelot on at short odds. I don't know for sure if Bonfire will stay, and I will err on the side of caution there, so Astrology looks a no-brainer each-way bet for me at 8/1 here. The price is generous considering the stable's recent record with second strings, and the performance this horse put in last time out when crushing an admittedly below par Dee Stakes field by thirteen lengths. Fanfare has been kept to a minimum, which usually means value is at a maximum, and with the breeding (Galileo) on his side and some noteworthy two year old performances in the book, he simply has to be a bet. Ryan Moore is in fine form and takes the ride.
Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: +20.31 / year: -270.76
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