Thursday 14th June 2012

Another nice winner last night, and we remain in excellent form..

Two races of interest for today.

2.50 Newbury

Inniscastle Boy 2pts win @ 14/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Beauchamp Castle 2pts win @ 11/1 (Vc Bet, guaranteed, 10/1 generally guaranteed)

An interesting little handicap and I'm keen enough to take on the top three in the market because two of them haven't done it on turf, and the favourite brings questionable Chepstow form into the race. Inniscastle Boy ran a decent race last time out at Newmarket on ground he might have found plenty fast enough, and despite being rousted for most of the journey he stuck in there until a furlong from home. If he finds improvement for the softer ground today and comes here in better form (as most of the stable now are), he can go close at rewarding double figure odds. Beauchamp Castle has been spotted running out of stamina over middle distances, and she is worth the chance to confirm the promise of her Kempton win in March back over a mile. Her ability to act on turf has to be taken on trust, but she has first time blinkers to focus her and William Buick is an eye catching booking for a stable who have had two winners and a second from three recent runners. 

3.05 Nottingham Depden 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 50/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, Coral, Independents - 40/1 generally guaranteed, 1/4 odds available www.brucebetting.com)

Depden could be a horse who simply has no ability, but he looked in his three maiden runs like a horse with physical scope, and he showed raw speed in two of those runs before fading very badly. He shaped like a horse with a physical or other breathing problem, and it is interesting this decent trainer perseveres with him after a long absence. Depden is by Captain Rio and is a half brother to the stable's good sprinter Cheveton, so he is bred for this job. Statistics suggest the trainer tends to have his horses ready to run well even after absences like this, and the trainer himself is profitable to follow - his horses are routinely underestimated. This looks a poor race, and off a plater's mark with a good claimer taking 3lb off, he is worth backing at massive odds of 40/1+.

Profit & loss: day: -7.00 / month: +87.81 / year: -203.26