A jaw dropping card at Royal Ascot is our singular focus today.
2.30 Ascot - The Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) - Betting w/o Frankel: Excelebration to win @ 11/10 (William Hill, Evens generally)
I'm hoping the great Frankel wins this in style, a possible caveat being his performance second time out last year when he only touched off Zoffany, but he got a terrible ride that day and may have been knackered after his incredible 2,000 Guineas performance. Other than that, I see no reason why he can't win this in the manner to which we have become accustomed. If you have to have a bet, I think Excelebration is fitter than Strong Suit, and looks a bit ahead of the rest, even money or better looks fair and Ladbrokes are giving you the clue that Excelebration is fit and well by ducking him in this market. However, for the purposes of our accounts there is no recommended staked bet here.
Medicean Man 1pt each-way @ 33/1 (Paddy Power, 1/4 odds 4 places - Boylesports, Ladbrokes, William Hill, guaranteed) - E/W 4th
Secret Asset 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Paddy Power, 1/4 odds 4 places - 40/1 generally guaranteed)
Wizz Kid 2pts win @ 6/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, 11/2 generally)
A fascinating renewal and great to see a huge field - it seems Prohibit's victory last year has inspired British trainers from Musselburgh to Brighton to throw their sprint handicappers in here and give it a whirl. Saying that, class is what usually wins this race, and the four year old French filly Wizz Kid has that in spades. Her victory last time out was very impressive, and she wasn't just beating trees - Stepper Point is no slouch. Her run style (strong travelling with a finishing kick) is well suited to the demands of this track and fillies have a decent record in this contest. 11/2 or better is fair. She is drawn on a part of the track which is generally favoured in this race, but we can't be positive about any bias or lack thereof until after day one.
It might seem excessive selecting three horses in one race, but a six point outlay isn't too much and Medicean Man and Secret Asset are must bets at the prices. They are also drawn on either side of the track which may be a good thing if an unusual bias does exist after the recent rain - having said that, I have basically ignored the draw in my selection process because to do otherwise is simply guesswork. Medicean Man is an Ascot specialist, who revels in travelling into a race off a strong pace at this course and sprinting up the stiff finish. This is obviously a step up in class but he might just be up to it and he won't lack for cruising speed. Secret Asset is a similar type of horse. A seven year old, he has found improvement in recent years since moving to Jane Chapple Hyam's yard, and a straight five with a stiff finish is ideal for him in my view. He was beaten only a short neck in last year's Prix De L'Abbeye, and his recent run over six furlongs in Kranji on soft ground was promising. If he gets a good tow into the race, he can finish best of all and he is far too big at 40/1.
3.45 Royal Ascot - The St. James's Palace Stakes (Group 1) - Hermival 4pts win @ 11/1 (Bet 365, 10/1 generally guaranteed)
I hinted after the 2,000 Guineas that the best horse on the day (ie. over a mile at Newmarket) may not have won, and I still think Hermival would have given Camelot a right scare had he raced anywhere near him. As a son of Dubawi, a mile on good or softer are pretty much his ideal conditions, and he gets those again today. A testicular problem was blamed for his poor showing at the Curragh in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, but the ground was very quick that day (faster than the official "Good" in my opinion) and he changed his legs numerous times, likely for one of the aforementioned two reasons! The progeny of Dubawi have a very good record at Ascot, and I expect a much improved showing from Hermival today. I am surprised he is not second favourite, it seems the Newmarket run has been forgotten - take out the Curragh run and you have a very progressive young colt under what should be ideal conditions. He is drawn well in stall 2 and is too big at 10/1+.
4.25 Royal Ascot - Coventry Stakes (Group 2) -
Cristoforo Columbo 4pts win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
Master Of War 1pt each-way @ 40/1 (Bet 365, 1/4 4 places guaranteed, 40/1 generally guaranteed)
Sir Prancealot was impressive and indeed looked very special at Sandown, but he pulled really hard and looked very speedy to be getting six furlongs here at this stage of his career. Dawn Approach looks a bit of a grinder and galloper to me and may not be suited by the demands of this contest in my view. I can't quite believe Cristoforo Columbo is not shorter than 6/1, though, and again one has to take the hint that Ladbrokes, who have such a good line of information on these O'Brien trained horses, duck him completely and offer only 9/2. I was tremendously impressed with his debut, he looked a very intelligent horse, and really well put together with plenty of muscle on him. He broke well, travelled easily, and quickened under hands and heels when asked by Joseph O'Brien. He looked for all the world as though the run would bring him on and I think he may just be one of O'Brien's best two year olds, even at this relatively early stage of the season.
At a much bigger price, Master War is selected each-way, despite a potentially hazardous draw in stall 1 (who knows, it may be an advantage). He represents the Hannon team, and the manner of his win at Haydock last time out really impressed me. He travelled well, and quickened beautifully when asked, putting the race to bed quickly and running fairly straight and true right to the line. Horses who last ran at Haydock have a history of doing well at Royal Ascot, and the selection's damsire is Elnadim, whose progeny have a good record at the track (although I don't have stats for his record as a damsire). Added to that, two year olds with two runs under their belt sent off at odds of 17/2 or better backed each-way have a record of 28/167 (won or were placed) at this meeting since 2006, returning a profit of +£101. Clearly, horses with this profile are underbet and it is also interesting that Richard Hannon's lesser fancied two year olds are profitable to back blind at the meeting. He is on record as saying the horse worked tremendously the other day and, having been set to go to Chepstow or Bath, was upgraded to the Royal Ascot team. He may just be at the stage in his career where he is improving all the time and as a result I'm keen on backing him each-way at 40/1. Bet 365 offer 1/4 odds 4 places.
5.00 Ascot - Ascot Stakes (Handicap) - Veiled each-way @ 12/1 (Generally)
No account bet recommended here, but Veiled won this last year and despite carrying a big weight there is little reason she can't get in the first four today and she makes some each-way appeal.
5.35 Ascot - Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) - Pay Freeze to win @ 6/1 (Generally)
Mick Channon's Pay Freeze has the right credentials to win this having impressed when winning last time out. However, with the draw an unknown and luck playing a big part, no account bet is recommended.
Profit & loss: day: -16.00 / month: +63.81 / year: -227.26
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