Sunday, July 15, 2012

Saturday 14th July 2012

Great racing today, and we have a few interests.


**Already Advised** 3.00 York - The John Smith's Cup 

Media Hype 5pts each-way @ 12/1 (Generally, Maximum Bet) - E/W 3rd

Most bookmakers pay 1/4 odds 4 places, please use them - link to market

Media Hype is a horse I have followed since seeing him bolt up at Pontefract on his seasonal debut in April. He followed that up with a second in a messy race at Haydock, and a very impressive course and distance win here in May, after which this became the automatic target. His unplaced effort at Newmarket can be put down to good to firm ground, which his trainer has stated was not to his liking. The intention was to pick up a penalty for this race, but it seems now he may get in without one after all. The reason for maximum confidence is that I had him priced up as a 7/1 shot for this and was amazed to see 16/1 in a place as well as 14/1 when prices were first published. The money has come, which speaks volumes in terms of his participation, and his trainer has been bullish this week regarding his chances. Personally, the York effort marked him down as an extremely well handicapped horse, and I feel he is probably capable of a rating of OR100+ in time. If he gets in here, his price will contract quite a bit in my view. If he doesn't get in, we'll get our money back provided he is declared which the trainer has stated is very much the intention. As a course and distance winner, who excels in coming off a strong pace, this race is tailor made for him, and he is our third maximum bet of the year.

3.20 Newmarket - The July Cup - 

Hawkeyethenoo 2pts each-way @ 33/1 (Brucebetting.com, or take 25/1 guaranteed with Paddy Power, Betfred, VC Bet and others) 
Sirius Prospect 1pt each-way AND 1pt win @ 12/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

Hawykeyethenoo is probably better than his Wokingham run suggests. He stayed on really well late on but was probably hampered by being drawn right in the middle of the track on a day when everything tacked over to either side. He coped with the drop back in trip fine and was doing all his best work at the finish. He is unproven on ground as testing as todays, but handled cut at Ascot and it may be his stamina for seven furlongs might win the day.

If he fails to fire, Sirius Prospect looks a big price at 12/1 to build on his Diamond Jubilee promise. He has no issues with the ground, but he struggled with form like many of his stable early in the year, before an improved run at Ascot. Again, he did all his best work at the finish behind Black Caviar, and he may have finished closer had he not been drawn on the wrong part of the track. He looks the type to progress again this year and may prove to be a top class sprinter before long.

3.35 York Stepper Point 3pts win @ 10/1 (Bet 365, VC Bet, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, guaranteed)

A three year old who looks well in at the weights here. Stepper Point was completely unsuited by Ascot last time, and has always in my mind been a Nunthorpe candidate. Today's race is a perfect starting point, and it seems strange that he is 10/1 and Hamish McGonagall is 5/1 when he holds that rival by 1/2 length (1lb worse off) on Chantilly form from May. His draw in stall 1 may not be ideal, but he has plenty of tactical speed and if he gets it all together, today might be the day when he confirms the promise he has shown on recent runs over a sharp, flat five furlongs.


Profit & loss: day: +0.00 / month: +109.10 / year: -112.38

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