Saturday 21st July 2012

A busy day for us after a fairly quiet week with a large outlay, a maximum bet, and four selections.

2.35 Newmarket - Noverre To Go 3pts win @ 6/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

My feeling having studied the weather charts is that Newmarket will dry out quite a bit as it tends to do, following a dry morning and early afternoon. That, combined with the fresh ground being utilised for this sprint, might make the ground ride a bit better than it did last night and I feel it may be no worse than good to soft come post time. That brings Noverre To Go right into it. I felt he was ultra impressive when landing the odds for us at Kempton last week and he looks one to follow. Obviously that was on polytrack but he has some very strong back class on turf including a fifth behind Evens And Odds in the Stewards Cup. Stakes have to be relatively small here as we're only making an educated guess with the ground, but at 6/1 and with a good run on good to soft at Haydock last year to his name, I'm inclined to take the chance - once Ron Harris gets these sprinters rolling, it can take a while before they stop winning.

3.40 Ripon - Ripon Bell-Ringer Handicap - Maastricht 4pts win @ 15/2 (William Hill, guaranteed, 7/1 generally guaranteed)

The ground is already being described as good at Ripon and with no further rain due it will only quicken as the afternoon progresses. Mark Johnston's horses have been giving signs of returning to form with the drying ground and Maastricht is readily forgiven his Chester run on soft ground, having previously shown a liking for a sound surface. A small field and the canny Franny Norton in the plate can only mean he will go from the front here, and the others might well struggle to catch him if he gets an easy lead. None of the opposition look like world beaters, and the selection looks overpriced at around 7/1. Johnston's stable have a great record with horses with a zero beside their name, and the disappointment last time out shouldn't put anyone off.

4.20 Ripon - Assizes 3pts win @ 7/1 (VC Bet, guaranteed, 13/2 Ladbrokes, guaranteed, 6/1 generally guaranteed)

Another from the Johnston stable. Assizes was held up in an ultra competitive York handicap last time out and he looked ill at ease with it and a bit one paced. He steps up to an extended nine furlongs today which should suit being a son of Teofilo, and in a smaller field today, again with Norton in the plate, and I would expect a return to the front running tactics which saw him finish second at Haydock. I think the better ground will see him improve along with the trip and despite that disappointment last time, there is good reason to expect better today and he looks overpriced.

4.35 Ascot - King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes - 

Sea Moon 5pts each-way @ 3/1 (Generally, make sure to take a guaranteed price - Maximum Bet)

The best horse in Sir Michael Stoute's yard in my view and the one horse in this field who is capable of pushing through the OR130+ barrier. Sea Moon travelled really strongly over course and distance last time and I was really impressed with the turn of foot he showed to put distance between himself and the field, with minimal recourse to the whip. I think Ascot suits him perfectly and I expect him to land his first group one today. He has had a better preparation than Nathaniel, who I feel is returning too quickly after a hard race and is ultimately probably 2lb - 3lb inferior, and provided the selection runs his race and improves as he should from his last run, I think he can win with something to spare. Stoute has campaigned the horse sparingly - two starts as a two year old, four as a three year old, and this his third four year old start. It bears all the hallmarks of a typical Stoute improver and I think the team will reap the rewards of patience today. I have played each-way because of the small field of ten runners. I don't see the horse getting beaten on merit, but if this turns into a messy race and something nicks it by getting an easy lead or racing on a different part of the track to the rest of the field, then I still think we'll run a place and get most of our large outlay back (we would only lose 2pts). The difference on the win return is 12pts, but the security of getting the stake back looks the smart way to play and it's a bet your bookmaker will not like.

Profit & loss: day: -20.00 / month: +72.92 / year: -148.96