5.05 Ascot - SIS Sprint Handicap
Taajub 1pt each-way AND 1.5pts win @ 16/1 (Boylesports, VC Bet, William Hill, betrogers.com, independents, guaranteed) - WON
Courageous 1pt each-way AND 0.5pts win @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes, William Hill, Coral, Skybet, independents, get guaranteed where possible)
An absolute beast of a sprint handicap in terms of its quality, quantity and the sheer number of different ways you could approach it. It is important for us to watch this at least, because there are so many good horses in here who will be winning over the coming weeks at the likes of Glorious Goodwood and right through to Ayr in September. There are fairly simple angles in, however, and I like the look of two of these at prices that much that I've decided on a rare Sunday bet.
Going back through the years, this is a race that can be won by a classy horse or a well handicapped one, but it generally requires a horse who has some sort of decent recent form at the distance and is drawn around the pace - they are massive factors and our selections come out well on both. Taajub has an absolute standout topspeed figure of 126 at this course, when he split subsequent Ayr Gold Cup winner Our Jonothan and Iver Bridge Lad over course and distance in the Cornwallis Stakes in 2008. It wasn't his only good run here and the fact that the figure is fully 20lb in excess of what the next best has achieved at the course warrants attention. His recent form is strong, Peter Crate has him in very good nick and an excellent run in the Epsom Dash was followed up by a strong second behind Sacrosanctus over six furlongs on the Downs last time. If he improves for the return to Ascot, he shouldn't be far away from winning this and his draw in stall 12 sees him close to Judge N Jury, Magical Macey and Taurus Twins who all have strong early speed and should give him a good tow into the race.
The presence of two extremely speedy horses in stall one and two, Fratellino and Verinco, leads me to think that there will be plenty of pace on the far rail and the ones to benefit might be Jedward, Rasaman and Courageous. Jedward is unproven at Ascot, and he looked a typical "galloping" type Fahey sprinter when winning at Newmarket last time out - he is overlooked as I feel he is the wrong type of horse for this track. Rasaman has been well punted and with good reason, but there is no juice in his price and he comes with the attached caveat that he can be slowly away. Courageous has recently gone to Milton Bradley and his run at Bath three days ago was promising. Hold Up tactics were executed for the first time in a while, and he was given a very tender ride into the race by Eddie Ahern and not overly pushed when his chance had gone having met a bit of trouble in running off a pace slower than ideal. He will not lack for fitness and the easy time of it at Bath might pay dividends here today. He has plummeted to a rating of OR78, and he also has one of the best course topspeed figures from a very decent 6/25 behind Manassas in last year's Buckingham Palace Stakes. Again he is too big a price at double carpet and if he gets the breaks at the right time, he can bely his odds.
Profit & loss: day: +41.50 / month: +114.42 / year: -107.06
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