Friday, July 20, 2012

Thursday 19th July 2012

Really unlucky not to bag another big priced winner yesterday but having traded 1.2 in running we were done in the last 50 yards. Still, we landed a small profit with the each-way money taken.

One for this afternoon.

4.30 Hamilton Skiddaw View 1pt each-way @ 66/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)

You won't often find me starting a write up with a warning, but this one is strictly, strictly for minimum each-way stakes as the advice suggests! Chances are Skiddaw View will trail in a remote last, but there are reasons to believe she might be overpriced in this field. She is a four year old filly bred to sprint, but seems to have had physical problems aplenty and missed the entire of 2011 as a result. Her efforts this year have not been entirely without hope, though, and she showed enough pace to lead a field of 0-50 rated sprinters at Wolverhampton earlier this year before fading. It has to be of interest that even this small yard keep her in training off a mark of just OR39, and the fact that she has another entry at Ayr in a couple of days time suggests there might be more than just blind faith at work here. The trainer Maurice Barnes does get the odd winner, and a first time tongue tie would suggest previous breathing problems and a likelihood that they have done plenty of physical work on the horse in order to help her overcome her problems. I do recall the Featherstones having a 66/1 success with a horse named Commander Wish in 2007 which had a very similar profile (those of you with ridiculous memories will note we tipped a horse called Dodaa in the same race!) and it is a situation I've seen repeated a couple of times since. This is a very poor bunch of sprinters, and if the selection is ready to put her best foot forward, she could cause a massive shock. It is more likely she will not, but at the prices, in such a poor race, it is worth taking the chance to very small stakes.


Profit & loss: day: -2.00 / month: +98.92 / year: -122.96


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