One for this evening.
6.35 Southwell Max The Machine 2pts each-way @ 18/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, 14/1 generally guaranteed) - E/W 2nd
Represents Derek Shaw, who has provided us with successes such as Shawkantango (adv 50/1) and Nially Noo (adv 40/1) at this course in recent times and is a dab hand with sprinters over this course and distance. It beggars belief in my view that this colt is priced up 14/1+, behind two unraced horses, a filly who has achieved roughly the same figures in Mrs Warren, and Masai King, who made a promising debut but will need to have come on a tonne to win this. The selection is forgiven a poor run on a bog at Newcastle last time out. Previously at Haydock, he had shaped very encouragingly, and his exaggerated action looked exactly that of a horse who will relish this surface - no wonder, he is related to three different course winners, including Glaramara who was very good here on his day. Dale Swift is good value for his 3lb and knows the horse well having ridden him twice, the price is far too big and this looks a cracking each-way bet. The only caveat I can see is a possible negative draw in stall one but it is impossible to tell with no recent racing here and it could just as well be a positive.
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One bet this afternoon and a possible evening bet released before 5.30pm.
3.15 Wolverhampton Flying Power 2pts each-way AND 1pt win @ 16/1 (Stan James, www.betpack.com, 14/1 generally guaranteed)
An interesting contest which tends to favour three year olds, but none of these three year olds have particularly impressed me. Venegazzu was well backed when winning here last time but my view is that it wasn't a great race. Yours Ever is underpriced as many of Prescott's are, he looks unlikely to get the sort of pace that will bring him into the contest today and he looks vulnerable. Flying Power has to lumber ten stone, but he is in good form and all his polytrack form reads well bar one effort in blinkers which he resented - his record on the surface is 2218 with the eight being the aforementioned affort in headgear. He was second to Brown Panther and Prince Of Burma, and off a mark of OR75 here he looks fairly handicapped - he ran to a mark of 80 on his last start three weeks ago. He is drawn in stall one which will suit his front running style, and there is a suggestion that he may be difficult to catch if he gets his own way on or close to the lead in this relatively small fiels - it has rained heavily around Wolverhampton, and the track is expected to ride faster than usual, favouring those who race on the pace.
Profit & loss: day: -1.40 / month: +6.00 / year: -215.48
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