One for this evening.
7.00 Southwell Caledonian Lad 5pts win @ 9/2 (Generally, get guaranteed)
This is pretty much par for the course for Hughie Morrison - send a 3yo to Southwell in July / August having gotten it well handicapped, step it up in trip to make use of the allowance it receives against bad older horses. The selection is well bred being related to the stable's Sagramor amongst others, and he gave the impression on his last start at Windsor that a step up in trip would suit, staying on under very tender handling and doing all his best work at the finish although it is hard to be sure given the ride he received. This looks a very poor contest and a good piece of placement, the trainer has fibresand gallops at home which the selection will have worked on and if he has it in him mentally to run his race against more experienced horses, I think his physical ability should see him home in front.
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One race of interest this afternoon, and it looks like we'll have at least one evening bet, details before 5.30pm.
3.00 Beverley
Meandmyshadow 3pts win @ 9/1 (Betfred, guaranteed, 17/2 VC Bet, guaranteed, 8/1 generally guaranteed)
Foreign Rhythm 1pt each-way @ 25/1 (William Gill, guaranteed, 25/1 with Sporting Bet, Stan James, www.betpack.com, Bodog, independents) - E/W 4th (10c rule 4)
An interesting sprint handicap despite the low grade. Meandmyshadow is a dual course and distance winner who needs fast ground, and has probably not been seen to best effect yet this year for that very reason. She has had little chance to race on her preferred surface, but the absence of rain from Beverley means the surface now rides good to firm and reported wind in the area is drying the ground further all the time. Satellite pictures suggest little to no chance of rain before this race goes off. The selection was not disgraces here last time, running her usual game race having been drawn widest and starting awkwardly, she wasn't given a hard time at all once it became clear she wasn't going on the ground, and she showed herself in good heart by doing her best work at the finish. The booking of a jockey who rides this course extremely well, the stables recent winning form, and a good draw in stall 7 add to confidence. Meandmyshadow has won five times in her short career to date, which says a lot for an OR60 rated horse, and she is well handicapped having been dropped 5lb since her last run. One caveat is that she has not won carrying a weight this big before.
Foreign Rhythm is worth a few quid each-way at a much bigger price. She was noted travelling very well on a fairly isolated part of the track up at Ayr, she led a furlong out but was bumped by the winner Ryedane and lost a couple of places near the finish ending up in fourth. She is also a course and distance winner, and the fact that three of her five career wins have come in fields of thirteen runners or more suggests that she will have conditions to her liking today. Three of those wins have come on good to firm ground, she is back on a winning mark, and having won three times in class 5 handicaps, she should be able to get very competitive in this class 6. Her drawn in stall 13 isn't too bad as she needs holding up, and young Gary Whillains is fair value for his 5lb claim - each of her five wins has come when ridden by a claimer or inexperienced pilot (responds well to hands and heels riding).
Profit & loss: day: -3.38 / month: +100.72 / year: -120.76
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