One bet for this evening.
6.50 Kempton Secret Symphony 2pts each-way @ 20/1 (Bet 365, Paddy Powers, guaranteed, also 20/1 Skybet, independents) - E/W 2nd
Attracted cash at huge prices before showing some promise in a Newbury maiden which is working out very well back in May. His stablemate Star Breaker finished just ahead of him, and was sent out two weeks ago to win a Salisbury maiden having been quite well supported. Tonight's race has an interesting shape to it. The favourite looks the one to beat, but he shouldn't be as short as 1/2 in my view and he didn't finish very strongly on debut. The stable are largely out of form and at the prices I feel he must be taken on. Classic Art looks nothing special despite being as low at 5/1. Typhon looks promising but his yard tend to do better with three year olds and he is bred to improve over further. The Hannon horse Magic Channel is interesting at 14/1, with the ground probably against him last time, but Secret Symphony represents a sire whose progeny have already shown themselves to be precicious and, having showed plenty of speed early doors at Newbury, a chance is taken on him improving for that run at the prices. He is well drawn in stall two and has the assistance of the excellent James Doyle.
______________________________________
4.30 Hamilton Oops Caroline 4pts win @ 7/1 (Generally, get guaranteed)
An interesting little contest, which seems to have been priced up on stable rather than on recent form. Za'lan looks ok but might be better on the all weather, his Lingfield form isn't great and his ability to handle soft to heavy ground is questionable. Solar View achieved nothing last time out and is priced up based on the fact that he is unexposed and is from the Prescott stable. He could win by ten lengths and turn into a group horse, but based on track evidence that is unlikely. Oops Caroline improved loads for the application of blinkers last time out and she is too big at 7/1 based on what she achieved at Beverley. She hinted at ability on a few occasions, for example at Redcar on her penultimate run, but she was difficult to steer, looked unfocused, and was all at sea on good to firm ground. She was much more comfortable at Beverley on good to soft, as her knee action would suggest, and the blinkers helped with her focus. She made rapid headway from the rear to take up the running at halfway and was only run out of it late on, which bodes very well because usually horses who make mid race moves like that fade late on - she used a lot of energy in the process. Za'lan should put some pace to this race today and if she settles, I would hope she can get in a rhythm and make her challenge late on. 7/1 is too big.
5.45 Brighton Big Wave 4pts win @ 10/3 (Betfred, Paddy Power, guaranteed, 3/1 generally guaranteed)
Big Wave should have no problems with softer ground in my view, indeed she handled good to soft at Yarmouth with no problems. I feel there is further improvement to come from her stepped back in trip to five furlongs, she certainly isn't short on speed and she has tended to pull hard throughout her races over six. Cape Royal should set a strong pace here and I would hope she can sit off it. She has drifted this morning as the Brighton specialists have been backed, but I am happy to take a chance at the prices because I think she is improving fast and can probably outclass these. 3/1+ is too big.
Profit & loss: day: -2.00 / month: -2.00 / year: -223.48
No comments:
Post a Comment